Nitrogen dynamics and nitrogen use efficiency of spring cereals under Finnish growing conditions

Nitrogen (N) is one of the main inputs in cereal cultivation and as more than half of the arable land in Finland is used for cereal production, N has contributed substantially to agricultural pollution through fertilizer leaching and runoff. Based on this global phenomenon, the European Community has launched several directives to reduce agricultural emissions to the environment. Trough such measures, and by using economic incentives, it is expected that northern European agricultural practices will, in the future, include reduced N fertilizer application rates. Reduced use of N fertilizer is likely to decrease both production costs and pollution, but could also result in reduced yields and quality if crops experience temporary N deficiency. Therefore, more efficient N use in cereal production, to minimize pollution risks and maximize farmer income, represents a current challenge for agronomic research in the northern growing areas. The main objective of this study was to determine the differences in nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among spring cereals grown in Finland. Additional aims were to characterize the multiple roles of NUE by analysing the extent of variation in NUE and its component traits among different cultivars, and to understand how other physiological traits, especially radiation use efficiency (RUE) and light interception, affect and interact with the main components of NUE and contribute to differences among cultivars. This study included cultivars of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), oat (Avena sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Field experiments were conducted between 2001 and 2004 at Jokioinen, in Finland. To determine differences in NUE among cultivars and gauge the achievements of plant breeding in NUE, 17-18 cultivars of each of the three cereal species released between 1909 and 2002 were studied. Responses to nitrogen of landraces, old cultivars and modern cultivars of each cereal species were evaluated under two N regimes (0 and 90 kg N ha-1). Results of the study revealed that modern wheat, oat and barley cultivars had similar NUE values under Finnish growing conditions and only results from a wider range of cultivars indicated that wheat cultivars could have lower NUE than the other species. There was a clear relationship between nitrogen uptake efficiency (UPE) and NUE in all species whereas nitrogen utilization efficiency (UTE) had a strong positive relationship with NUE only for oat. UTE was clearly lower in wheat than in other species. Other traits related to N translocation indicated that wheat also had a lower harvest index, nitrogen harvest index and nitrogen remobilisation efficiency and therefore its N translocation efficiency was confirmed to be very low. On the basis of these results there appears to be potential and also a need for improvement in NUE. These results may help understand the underlying physiological differences in NUE and could help to identify alternative production options, such as the different roles that species can play in crop rotations designed to meet the demands of modern agricultural practices.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Distortion of Dimension under Quasiconformal Mappings

Quasiconformal mappings are natural generalizations of conformal mappings. They are homeomorphisms with 'bounded distortion' of which there exist several approaches. In this work we study dimension distortion properties of quasiconformal mappings both in the plane and in higher dimensional Euclidean setting. The thesis consists of a summary and three research articles. A basic property of quasiconformal mappings is the local Hölder continuity. It has long been conjectured that this regularity holds at the Sobolev level (Gehring's higher integrabilty conjecture). Optimal regularity would also provide sharp bounds for the distortion of Hausdorff dimension. The higher integrability conjecture was solved in the plane by Astala in 1994 and it is still open in higher dimensions. Thus in the plane we have a precise description how Hausdorff dimension changes under quasiconformal deformations for general sets. The first two articles contribute to two remaining issues in the planar theory. The first one concerns distortion of more special sets, for rectifiable sets we expect improved bounds to hold. The second issue consists of understanding distortion of dimension on a finer level, namely on the level of Hausdorff measures. In the third article we study flatness properties of quasiconformal images of spheres in a quantitative way. These also lead to nontrivial bounds for their Hausdorff dimension even in the n-dimensional case.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy under a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime

This licentiate's thesis analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate regime, assuming that the government spends exclusively on domestically produced goods. The motivation for this research comes from the observation that the literature on the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) has focused almost exclusively on two-country global models and the analyses of the effects of fiscal policy on small economies are almost completely ignored. This thesis aims at filling in the gap in the NOEM literature and illustrates how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on the specification of preferences. The research method is to present two theoretical model that are extensions to the model contained in the Appendix to Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). The first model analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy, making use of a model that exploits the idea of modelling private and government consumption as substitutes in private utility. The model offers intuitive predictions on how the effects of fiscal policy depend on the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The findings illustrate that the higher the substitutability between private and government consumption, (i) the bigger is the crowding out effect on private consumption (ii) and the smaller is the positive effect on output. The welfare analysis shows that the less fiscal policy decreases welfare the higher is the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The second model of this thesis studies how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy depend on the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. This model reveals that this elasticity a key variable to explain the exchange rate, current account and output response to a permanent rise in government spending. Finally, the model demonstrates that temporary changes in government spending are an effective stabilization tool when used wisely and timely in response to undesired fluctuations in output. Undesired fluctuations in output can be perfectly offset by an opposite change in government spending without causing any side-effects.

Below-ground processes in meadow soil under elevated ozone and carbon dioxide : - Greenhouse gas fluxes, N cycling and microbial communities

This thesis focuses on how elevated CO2 and/or O3 affect the below-ground processes in semi-natural vegetation, with an emphasis on greenhouse gases, N cycling and microbial communities. Meadow mesocosms mimicking lowland hay meadows in Jokioinen, SW Finland, were enclosed in open-top chambers and exposed to ambient and elevated levels of O3 (40-50 ppb) and/or CO2 (+100 ppm) for three consecutive growing season, while chamberless plots were used as chamber controls. Chemical and microbiological analyses as well as laboratory incubations of the mesocosm soils under different treatments were used to study the effects of O3 and/or CO2. Artificially constructed mesocosms were also compared with natural meadows with regards to GHG fluxes and soil characteristics. In addition to research conducted at the ecosystem level (i.e. the mesocosm study), soil microbial communities were also examined in a pot experiment with monocultures of individual species. By comparing mesocosms with similar natural plant assemblage, it was possible to demonstrate that artificial mesocosms simulated natural habitats, even though some differences were found in the CH4 oxidation rate, soil mineral N, and total C and N concentrations in the soil. After three growing seasons of fumigations, the fluxes of N2O, CH4, and CO2 were decreased in the NF+O3 treatment, and the soil NH4+-N and mineral N concentrations were lower in the NF+O3 treatment than in the NF control treatment. The mesocosm soil microbial communities were affected negatively by the NF+O3 treatment, as the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and fungal PLFA biomasses as well as the fungal:bacterial biomass ratio decreased under elevated O3. In the pot survey, O3 decreased the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and mycorrhizal PLFA biomasses in the bulk soil and affected the microbial community structure in the rhizosphere of L. pratensis, whereas the bulk soil and rhizosphere of the other monoculture, A. capillaris, remained unaffected by O3. Elevated CO2 caused only minor and insignificant changes in the GHG fluxes, N cycling, and the microbial community structure. In the present study, the below-ground processes were modified after three years of moderate O3 enhancement. A tentative conclusion is that a decrease in N availability may have feedback effects on plant growth and competition and affect the N cycling of the whole meadow ecosystem. Ecosystem level changes occur slowly, and multiplication of the responses might be expected in the long run.

Recovery responses of acidified Finnish lakes under declining acid deposition

The present work provides a regional-scale assessment of the changes in acidifying deposition in Finland over the past 30 years and the current pattern in the recovery of acid-sensitive lakes from acidification in relation to changes in sulphate deposition. This information is needed for documenting the ecosystem benefits of costly emission reduction policies and further actions in air pollution policy. The development of sulphate deposition in Finland reflects that of European SO2 emissions. Before the 1990s, reductions in sulphur emissions in Europe had been relatively small and sulphate deposition showed no consistent trends. Due to emission reduction measures that were then taken, sulphate deposition started to clearly decline from the late 1980s. The bulk deposition of sulphate has declined 40-60% in most parts of the country during 1990-2003. The decline in sulphate deposition exceeded the decline of base cation deposition, which resulted in a decrease in acidity and acidifying potential of deposition over the 1990s. Nitrogen deposition also decreased since the late 1980s, but less than that of sulphate, and levelling off during the 1990s. Sulphate concentrations in all types of small lakes throughout Finland have declined from the early 1990s. The relative decrease in lake sulphate concentrations (average 40-50%) during 1990-2003 was rather similar to the decline in sulphate deposition, indicating a direct response to the reduction in deposition. There are presently no indications of elevated nitrate concentrations in forested headwater lakes. Base cation concentrations are still declining in many lakes, especially in south Finland, but to a lesser extent than sulphate allowing buffering capacity (alkalinity) to increase, being significant in 60% of the study lakes. Chemical recovery is resulting in biological recovery with populations of acid-sensitive fish species increasing. The recovery has been strongest in lakes in which sulphate has been the major acidifying agent, and recovery has been the strongest and most consistent in lakes in south Finland. The recovery of lakes in central Finland and north Finland is not as widespread and strong as observed in south. Many catchments, particularly in central Finland, have a high proportion of peatlands and therefore high TOC concentrations in lakes, and runoff-induced surges of organic acids have been an important confounding factor suppressing the recovery of pH and alkalinity in these lakes. Chemical recovery is progressing even in the most acidified lakes, but the buffering capacity of many lakes is still low and still sensitive to acidic input. Further reduction in sulphur emissions are needed for the alkalinity to increase in the acidified lakes. Increasing total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations are indicated in small forest lakes in Finland. The trends appear to be related to decreasing sulphate deposition and improved acid-base status of the soil, and the rise in TOC is integral to recovery from acidification. A new challenge is climate change with potential trends in temperature, precipitation and runoff, which are expected to affect future chemical and biological recovery from acidification. The potential impact on the mobilization and leaching of organic acids may become particularly important in Finnish conditions. Long-term environmental monitoring has evidently shown the success of international emission abatement strategies. The importance and value of integrated monitoring approach including physical, chemical and biological variables is clearly indicated, and continuous environmental monitoring is needed as a scientific basis for further actions in air pollution policy.

Ecological communities in variable environments : dynamics and diversity under coloured environmental stochasticity

While environmental variation is an ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural world which has for long been appreciated by the scientific community recent changes in global climatic conditions have begun to raise consciousness about the economical, political and sociological ramifications of global climate change. Climate warming has already resulted in documented changes in ecosystem functioning, with direct repercussions on ecosystem services. While predicting the influence of ecosystem changes on vital ecosystem services can be extremely difficult, knowledge of the organisation of ecological interactions within natural communities can help us better understand climate driven changes in ecosystems. The role of environmental variation as an agent mediating population extinctions is likely to become increasingly important in the future. In previous studies population extinction risk in stochastic environmental conditions has been tied to an interaction between population density dependence and the temporal autocorrelation of environmental fluctuations. When populations interact with each other, forming ecological communities, the response of such species assemblages to environmental stochasticity can depend, e.g., on trophic structure in the food web and the similarity in species-specific responses to environmental conditions. The results presented in this thesis indicate that variation in the correlation structure between species-specific environmental responses (environmental correlation) can have important qualitative and quantitative effects on community persistence and biomass stability in autocorrelated (coloured) environments. In addition, reddened environmental stochasticity and ecological drift processes (such as demographic stochasticity and dispersal limitation) have important implications for patterns in species relative abundances and community dynamics over time and space. Our understanding of patterns in biodiversity at local and global scale can be enhanced by considering the relevance of different drift processes for community organisation and dynamics. Although the results laid out in this thesis are based on mathematical simulation models, they can be valuable in planning effective empirical studies as well as in interpreting existing empirical results. Most of the metrics considered here are directly applicable to empirical data.

Meadow plant growth and competition under elevated ozone and carbon dioxide

The main aim of my thesis project was to assess the impact of elevated ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) on the growth, competition and community of meadow plants in northern Europe. The thesis project consisted of three separate O3 and CO2 exposure experiments that were conducted as open-top-chamber (OTC) studies at Jokioinen, SW Finland, and a smaller-scale experiment with different availabilities of resources in greenhouses in Helsinki. The OTC experiments included a competition experiment with two- and three-wise interactions, a mesocosm-scale meadow community with a large number of species, and a pot experiment that assessed intraspecific differences of Centaurea jacea ecotypes. The studied lowland hay meadow proved to be an O3-sensitive biotope, as the O3 concentrations used (40-50 ppb) were moderate, and yet, six out of nine species (Campanula rotundifolia, Centaurea jacea, Fragaria vesca, Ranunculus acris, Trifolium medium, Vicia cracca) showed either significant reductions in biomass or reproductive development, visible O3 injury or any two as a response to elevated O3. The plant species and ecotypes exhibited large intra- and interspecific variation in their response to O3, but O3 and CO2 concentrations did not cause changes in their interspecific competition or in community composition. However, the largest O3-induced growth reductions were seen in the least abundant species (C. rotundifolia and F. vesca), which may indicate O3-induced suppression of weak competitors. The overall effects of CO2 were relatively small and mainly restricted to individual species and several measured variables. Based on the present studies, most of the deleterious effects of tropospheric O3 are not diminished by a moderate increase in CO2 under low N availability, and variation exists between different species and variables. The present study indicates that the growth of several herb species decreases with increasing atmospheric O3 concentrations, and that these changes may pose a threat to the biodiversity of meadows. Ozone-induced reductions in the total community biomass production and N pool are likely to have important consequences for the nutrient cycling of the ecosystem.

Total hip arthroplasty in young patients : with special references to patients under 55 years of age and to patients with developmental dysplasia of the hip

There is an ongoing controversy as to which methods in total hip arthroplasty (THA) could provide young patients with best long-term results. THA is an especially demanding operation in patients with severely dysplastic hips. The optimal surgical treatment for these patients also remains controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term survival of THA in young patients (<55 years at the time of the primary operation) on a nation-wide level, and to analyze the long-term clinical and radio-graphical outcome of uncemented THA in patients with severely dysplastic joints. Survival of 4661 primary THAs performed for primary osteoarthritis (OA), 2557 primary THAs per-formed for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and modern uncemented THA designs performed for primary OA in young patients, were analysed from the Finnish Arthroplasty Register. A total of 68 THAs were per-formed in 56 consecutive patients with high congenital hip dislocation between 1989-1994, and 68 THAs were performed in 59 consecutive patients with severely dysplastic hips and a previous Schanz osteotomy of the femur between 1988-1995 at the Orton Orthopaedic Hospital, Helsinki, Finland. These patients underwent a detailed physical and radiographical evaluation at a mean of 12.3 years and 13.0 years postoperatively, respectively. The risk of stem revision due to aseptic loosening in young patients with primary OA was higher for cemented stems than for proximally porous-coated or HA-coated uncemented stems implanted over the 1991-2001 period. There was no difference in the risk of revision between all-poly cemented-cups and press-fit porous-coated uncemented cups implanted during the same period, when the end point was defined as any revision (including exchange of liner). All uncemented stem designs studied in young patients with primary OA had >90% survival rates at 10 years. The Biomet Bi-Metric stem had a 95% (95% CI 93-97) survival rate even at 15 years. When the end point was defined as any revision, 10 year survival rates of all uncemented cup designs except the Harris-Galante II decreased to <80%. In young patients with RA, the risk of stem revision due to aseptic loosening was higher with cemented stems than with proximally porous-coated uncemented stems. In contrast, the risk of cup revision was higher for all uncemented cup concepts than for all-poly cemented cups with any type of cup revision as the end point. The Harris hip score increased significantly (p<0.001) both in patients with high con-genital hip dislocation and in patients with severely dysplastic hips and a previous Schanz osteotomy, treated with uncemented THA. There was a negative Trendelenburg sign in 92% and in 88% of hips, respectively. There were 12 (18%) and 15 (22%) perioperative complications. The rate of survival for the CDH femoral components, with revision due to aseptic loosening as the end point, was 98% (95% CI 97-100) at 10 years in patients with high hip dislocation and 92% (95% CI, 86-99) at 14 years in patients with a previous Schanz osteotomy. The rate of survival for press-fit, porous-coated acetabular components, with revision due to aseptic loosening as the end point, was 95% (95% CI 89-100) at 10 years in patients with high hip dislocation, and 98% (95% CI 89-100) in patients with a previous Schanz osteotomy. When revision of the cup for any reason was defined as the end point, 10 year sur-vival rates declined to 88% (95% CI 81-95) and to 69% (95% CI, 56-82), respectively. For young patients with primary OA, uncemented proximally circumferentially porous- and HA-coated stems are the implants of choice. However, survival rates of modern uncemented cups are no better than that of all-poly cemented cups. Uncemented proximally circumferentially porous-coated stems and cemented all-poly cups are currently the implants of choice for young patients with RA. Uncemented THA, with placement of the cup at the level of the true acetabulum, distal advancement of the greater trochanter and femoral shortening osteotomy provided patients with high congenital hip dislocation good long-term outcomes. Most of the patients with severely dysplastic hips and a previous Schanz osteotomy can be successfully treated with the same method. However, the subtrochanteric segmental shortening with angular correction gives better leg length correction for the patients with a previous low-seated unilateral Schanz osteotomy.

Carbon dynamics in peatlands under changing hydrology : Effects of water level drawdown on litter quality, microbial enzyme activities and litter decomposition rates

Pristine peatlands are carbon (C) accumulating wetland ecosystems sustained by a high water level (WL) and consequent anoxia that slows down decomposition. Persistent WL drawdown as a response to climate and/or land-use change directly affects decomposition: increased oxygenation stimulates decomposition of the old C (peat) sequestered under prior anoxic conditions. Responses of the new C (plant litter) in terms of quality, production and decomposability, and the consequences for the whole C cycle of peatlands are not fully understood. WL drawdown induces changes in plant community resulting in shift in dominance from Sphagnum and graminoids to shrubs and trees. There is increasing evidence that the indirect effects of WL drawdown via the changes in plant communities will have more impact on the ecosystem C cycling than any direct effects. The aim of this study is to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of WL drawdown on the new C by measuring the relative importance of 1) environmental parameters (WL depth, temperature, soil chemistry) and 2) plant community composition on litter production, microbial activity, litter decomposition rates and, consequently, on the C accumulation. This information is crucial for modelling C cycle under changing climate and/or land-use. The effects of WL drawdown were tested in a large-scale experiment with manipulated WL at two time scales and three nutrient regimes. Furthermore, the effect of climate on litter decomposability was tested along a north-south gradient. Additionally, a novel method for estimating litter chemical quality and decomposability was explored by combining Near infrared spectroscopy with multivariate modelling. WL drawdown had direct effects on litter quality, microbial community composition and activity and litter decomposition rates. However, the direct effects of WL drawdown were overruled by the indirect effects via changes in litter type composition and production. Short-term (years) responses to WL drawdown were small. In long-term (decades), dramatically increased litter inputs resulted in large accumulation of organic matter in spite of increased decomposition rates. Further, the quality of the accumulated matter greatly changed from that accumulated in pristine conditions. The response of a peatland ecosystem to persistent WL drawdown was more pronounced at sites with more nutrients. The study demonstrates that the shift in vegetation composition as a response to climate and/or land-use change is the main factor affecting peatland ecosystem C cycle and thus dynamic vegetation is a necessity in any models applied for estimating responses of C fluxes to changes in the environment. The time scale for vegetation changes caused by hydrological changes needs to extend to decades. This study provides grouping of litter types (plant species and part) into functional types based on their chemical quality and/or decomposability that the models could utilize. Further, the results clearly show a drop in soil temperature as a response to WL drawdown when an initially open peatland converts into a forest ecosystem, which has not yet been considered in the existing models.