Sensitivity of wetland methane emissions to model assumptions: application and model testing against site observations

Abstract. Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources is still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al., 2011) into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN) in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations. A rice paddy module is also incorporated into the model, where the fraction of land used for rice production is explicitly prescribed. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993–2004 were 256 Tg CH4 yr−1, and rice paddy emissions in the year 2000 were 42 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 yr−1, or 78 % of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50 N) systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 yr−1. We expect this latter number may be an underestimate due to the low high-latitude inundated area captured by satellites and unrealistically low high-latitude productivity and soil carbon predicted by CLM4. Sensitivity analysis showed a large range (150–346 Tg CH4 yr−1) in predicted global methane emissions. The large range was sensitive to: (1) the amount of methane transported through aerenchyma, (2) soil pH (± 100 Tg CH4 yr−1), and (3) redox inhibition (± 45 Tg CH4 yr−1).

Molecular characterization of sediment bacterial communities affected by fish farming

Fish farming introduces nutrients, microbes and a wide variety of chemicals such as heavy metals, antifoulants and antibiotics to the surrounding environment. Introduction of antibiotics has been linked with the increased incidence of antibiotic resistant pathogenic bacteria in the farm vicinities. In this thesis molecular methods such as quantitative PCR and DNA sequencing were applied to analyze bacterial communities in sediments from fish farms and pristine locations. Altogether four farms and four pristine sites were sampled in the Baltic Sea. Two farm and two pristine locations were sampled over a surveillance period of four years. Furthermore, a new methodology was developed as a part of the study that permits amplifying single microbial genomes and capturing them according to any genetic traits, including antibiotic resistance genes. The study revealed that several resistance genes for tetracycline were found at the sediment underneath the aquaculture farms. The copy number of these genes remained elevated even at a farm that had not used any antibiotics since year 2000, six years before this study started. Similarly, an increase in the amount of mercury resistance gene merA was observed at the aquaculture sediment. The persistence of the resistance genes in absence of any selection pressure from antibiotics or heavy metals suggests that the genes may be introduced to the sediment by the farming process. This is also supported by the diversity pattern of the merA gene between farm and pristine sediments. The bacterial community-level changes in response to fish farming were very complex and no single phylogenetic groups were found that would be typical to fish farm sediments. However, the community structures had some correlation with the exposure to fish farming. Our studies suggest that the established approaches to deal with antibiotic resistance at the aquaculture, such as antibiotic cycling, are fundamentally flawed because they cannot prevent the introduction of the resistance genes and resistant bacteria to the farm area by the farming process. Further studies are required to study the entire fish farming process to identify the sources of the resistance genes and the resistant bacteria. The results also suggest that in order to prevent major microbiological changes in the surrounding aquatic environment, the farms should not be founded in shallow water where currents do not transport sedimenting matter from the farms. Finally, the technique to amplify and select microbial genomes will potentially have a considerable impact in microbial ecology and genomics.

Analysts' Accuracy of Estimation and the Relative Trading Volume

This study contributes to the neglect effect literature by looking at the relative trading volume in terms of value. The results for the Swedish market show a significant positive relationship between the accuracy of estimation and the relative trading volume. Market capitalisation and analyst coverage have in prior studies been used as proxies for neglect. These measures however, do not take into account the effort analysts put in when estimating corporate pre-tax profits. I also find evidence that the industry of the firm influence the accuracy of estimation. In addition, supporting earlier findings, loss making firms are associated with larger forecasting errors. Further, I find that the average forecast error increased in the year 2000 – in Sweden.

Sosiaalityön ammattilaiset refleksiivisinä toimijoina : tutkimus erikoistumiskoulutuksesta Margaret Archerin teorian valossa

In Finland, specialized studies in social work (professional licentiate education) were begun in the year 2000. The education is targeted at experienced social workers and leads to a licentiate degree (a degree between master s and doctorate). In this study, the experiences of members of the first study cohort, specializing in social work with children and young people, are examined. The study s theoretical frame of reference is based on the morphogenetic approach, developed by British sociologist Margaret Archer. In it, the potential powers of both an agent as well as social and cultural structures are considered important and worth taking into account. Archer sees reflexivity, a person s ability to analyze herself/himself, as an essential starting point for agency. Thanks to reflexivity, people are able to engage in internal conversations , discuss the concerns that are important to them and form agential projects . In Archer s theory, the social structures and traits of the cultural system are seen as having potential power in relation to people s agential projects; these powers can enable but also restrain the realization of the projects. On the other hand, individuals can try to review the factors affecting their agential projects and find ways of action that facilitate them. The research task is to study the self-understanding of social work professionals in the 21st century, the issues and goals professionally important for them, as well as the contexts framing the realization of these goals. The research questions are as follows: 1) What kind of internal conversations, concerns and agential projects related to their work did the professionals taking part in licentiate education bring to light? 2) What kind of enabling and restraining factors can be identified in their situations? And 3) What kind of social structures and traits related to the cultural system are connected to these factors? The research material was collected by interviewing the students in different phases of their education. In 2001 and 2004 all members of the study group (n = 25) were interviewed. In 2007, 13 students took part. The themes of the internal conversations brought to light in the interviews were divided into four broad thematic categories: professional development, the position of children in social work, multiprofessional work and structural social work. In relation to these themes the students formed different kinds of agential projects. In addition, the study reveals several cultural and social structures that have enabled but also restrained the realization of the agential projects. These structures are linked, for example, to the relations between employees and employers, students and teachers, children and adults as well as between the representatives of different professions. Working conditions which social workers often consider weak are discussed as a focal issue related to many themes. These working conditions become evident, for example, in the great imbalance which exists between the professional tasks and the amount of time that social workers have for them. Difficult situations arise when social workers feel they cannot reach the goals that are professionally important to them because of the strict external conditions of the work.

Treatment of illicit opioid and γ-hydroxybutyrate overdose by Helsinki emergency medical services

Aims: To examine the characteristics, incidence, treatment and outcome of presumed opioid, γ-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) and γ-butyrolactone (GBL) overdoses involving users of illicit drugs in Helsinki. GHB/GBL were included in this study, despite not being opioids, due to the relative ease with which they can cause potentially fatal respiratory depression. The incidence and time interval of recurrent opioid toxicity after prehospital administration of naloxone, an opioid antagonist, was studied in presumed heroin overdose patients. Naloxone has been reported to have many adverse effects and the effects of naloxone administered during an opioid overdose on the cardiovascular system and catecholamine levels in piglets were studied. Materials and methods: Patients included in these published retrospective studies were from the following time periods: Study I: 1995-2002, II: 1997-2000, III: 1995-2000, V: 2006-2007. Presumed opioid overdose patients were examined in studies I, II and III. GHB/GBL overdoses among injecting drug users was examined in study V. Recurrent opioid toxicity after prehospital naloxone administration in heroin overdose patients was examined in study III. The effects of naloxone (80 μg/kg i.v.) on the cardiovascular system and catecholamine levels administered during morphine overdose (8mg/kg i.v.) and under propofol anesthesia with spontaneous breathing were studied in eight piglets (IV). In this thesis, previously unpublished data on the incidence of opioid overdose between 2001-2007 and comparison of the characteristics of buprenorphine and heroin overdose patients encountered in 1995-2005 are also included. Results: Helsinki Emergency Medical Service (EMS) ambulances were dispatched annually to 34,153- 45,118 calls from 1995 to 2007. Of them, 7-8% were coded as intoxications or overdoses. During this time, 436 patients were treated by the EMS for presumed opioid overdose. The peak incidence of opioid overdoses was in the year 2000 (113 cases), after which they declined to 6-26 cases annually. The annual incidence of buprenorphine related overdoses increased from 4 (4% of opioid overdoses) in the year 2000 to 8 (30% of opioid overdoses) in 2007. The annual number of GHB related overdose patients treated by Helsinki EMS increased from 21 to 73 between 2004-2007. There appeared to be a peak in the incidence of both GHB/GBL and opioid related overdoses on Saturdays. Characteristics of opioid overdose patients The median age of opioid overdose patients was 28 years (22;33, 25- and 75-percentiles), and 84% were male. Buprenorphine overdose patients had more polydrug, such as alcohol and/or benzodiazepines, use in comparison with heroin overdose patients, 70% versus 33%, respectively. Severe respiratory depression was reported less often with buprenorphine overdoses compared to heroin overdoses, in 67.0% versus 85.4%, respectively. Outcome of heroin overdose patients with cardiac arrest Ninety four patients suffered cardiac arrest due to acute drug poisoning/overdose and were thus considered for resuscitation. Resuscitation was attempted in 72 cases. Cardiac arrest was caused by heroin overdose for 19 patients of which three (16%) were discharged alive. Other agents also induced cardiac arrest in 53 patients, of which six (11%) were discharged alive. The arrest was either EMS witnessed or occurring after the emergency call for all survivors of heroin induced cardiac arrest. Characteristics of GHB/GBL overdose patients The records of 100 GHB/GBL related overdose patients from 2006-2007 were retrieved. The median age of GHB/GBL overdose patients encountered on weekend nights was 24 years (22;27, 25- and 75-percentiles) and 49% were male. Polydrug use was reported in 62-80% of the cases. Thirty nine patients were encountered on Friday-Saturday or Saturday-Sunday night between 11 pm-6 am. The remaining sixty one patients were outside this time frame. There was a statistically significant difference between these two groups in history of chronic injecting drug use (33% vs. 59%, respectively, p=0.012). Recurrent heroin toxicity after prehospital naloxone administration Study III included 145 presumed heroin overdose patients. After prehospital care, 84 patients refused further care and were not transported to an Emergency Department (ED). Seventy one (85%) of them were administered naloxone by the EMS. During a 12-h follow up period, none of these patients developed severe recurrent opioid toxicity. The remaining 61 patients were transported to an ED. Prior to transportation, 52 (85%) patients were administered naloxone by the EMS. Fifteen of them were administered naloxone also in the ED and recurrent opioid toxicity was evident either on arrival at the ED or shortly thereafter. Prehospital naloxone was administered either intravenously, intramuscularly (i.m.) or subcutaneously (s.c.). There was a tendency for more frequent recurrent heroin toxicity among the patients with only intravenous administration of prehospital naloxone (13/36) compared with the patients with intramuscular or subcutaneous prehospital naloxone (2/16), p=0.106. The effects of naloxone on the cardiovascular system and catecholamine levels in piglets The administration of morphine to piglets resulted in an obvious respiratory depression, which was reversed by naloxone. Two severely hypoxemic piglets developed cardiac arrest after naloxone administration. In the other six animals, the administration of naloxone did not provoke arrhythmias, cardiac ischemia or visible evidence of pulmonary edema. There was a statistically significant (p=0.012) increase in norepinephrine levels after morphine administration and before naloxone administration: from 1.9 (1.3-2.3) ng/ml at baseline, to 31.7 (8.3-83.0) ng/ml (median, 25 and 75 percentiles parentheses) after morphine administration. After the administration of naloxone, the catecholamine levels continued to increase in only one of the animals. Conclusions: The incidence of buprenorphine related overdoses increased during the study period, but was still lower in comparison to those involving heroin. Injecting drug users have also started to use GHB/GBL. While recreational drug users use GHB/GBL during weekend nights, a GHB/GBL overdose patient encounter during weekdays has a more probable history of injecting drug use. Patients with cardiac arrest after heroin overdose have a poor prognosis. It appears to be safe to leave heroin overdose patients on scene after prehospital treatment with naloxone. Although no statistically significant difference was observed, it seems prudent to administer part of the total naloxone dose s.c. or i.m. to reduce the risk of recurrent respiratory depression. If transported to an ED, an observation period of one to two hours after the last naloxone dose seems adequate. The treating physician must be vigilant, however, due to the high prevalence of polydrug use and high morbidity after non fatal heroin overdose. Furthermore, care should be taken regarding possible chronic disorders and drug rehabilitation should be addressed. In the experimental animal study, two animals developed cardiac arrest after receiving naloxone while in hypoxemia and bradycardia. Further studies are required to assess the effect of naloxone during opioid-induced hypercapnia and hypoxemia in animals addicted to opioids.