Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Spatial and temporal determinants of Finnish farmland bird populations

During the past decades agricultural intensification has caused dramatic population declines in a wide range of taxa related to farmland habitats, including farmland birds. In this thesis, I studied how boreal farmland landscape characteristics and agricultural land use affect the abundance and diversity of farmland birds using extensive field data collected by territory mapping of breeding farmland birds in various parts of Finland. My results show that the area and openness of agricultural areas are key determinants of farmland bird abundance and distribution. A landscape composition with enough open farmland combined with key habitats such as farmyards and wetland is likely to provide essential prerequisites for the occurrence of a rich farmland avifauna. In Finland, the majority of large areas suitable for open habitat specialists are located in southern and western parts of the country. However, the diversity of the species with an unfavourable conservation status in Europe (SPECs) had notable hotspot areas in northern and north-western agricultural areas. I found that in boreal agroecosystems farmland birds favour fields with springtime vegetative cover, especially agricultural grasslands and set-asides. Hence, in the spring cereal dominated Finnish agroecosystems it is the absence of field vegetation that may limit populations of many farmland bird species. It is likely that the decrease of crops providing vegetative cover in the spring, such as permanent grasslands, cultivated grass, and autumn-sown cereals, has greatly contributed to the declines of Finnish farmland birds. Grass crops have persistently declined in Finland as a consequence of specialization in crop production and the large-scale decline in livestock husbandry. Small-scale non-crop habitats, especially ditches and ditch margins, are also important for many bird species in the Finnish agroecosystems, but have dramatically declined during the last decades. A major problem for farmland bird conservation in Finland is the conflict between landscape structure and agricultural management. Areas with mixed and cattle farming are virtually absent from the large agricultural plains of southern and south-western Finland, where the landscape structure is more likely to be favourable for rich farmland bird assemblages. On the other hand, mixed and cattle farming is still rather frequent in northern and central parts of the country, where the landscape structure is not suitable for many farmland specialist birds requiring open landscapes. My results provide useful guidelines for farmland bird conservation, and imply that considerable attention needs to be paid to landscape factors when selecting areas for various conservational management actions, such as agri-environment schemes. Actions promoting the abundance of set-asides, grass crops, and ditches would markedly benefit Finnish farmland bird populations. Organic farming may benefit farmland birds, but it is not clear how general its beneficial effect is in boreal agroecosystems. The most urgent action aiming to preserve farmland biodiversity would be to support re-introducing and sustaining cattle farming by environmental subsidies. This would be especially beneficial in the southern parts of Finland, where the landscape characteristics and abundance of agricultural areas are most suitable for farmland birds and where cattle farming is currently rare.

Topics in Spatial Econometrics - With Applications to House Prices

Topics in Spatial Econometrics — With Applications to House Prices Spatial effects in data occur when geographical closeness of observations influences the relation between the observations. When two points on a map are close to each other, the observed values on a variable at those points tend to be similar. The further away the two points are from each other, the less similar the observed values tend to be. Recent technical developments, geographical information systems (GIS) and global positioning systems (GPS) have brought about a renewed interest in spatial matters. For instance, it is possible to observe the exact location of an observation and combine it with other characteristics. Spatial econometrics integrates spatial aspects into econometric models and analysis. The thesis concentrates mainly on methodological issues, but the findings are illustrated by empirical studies on house price data. The thesis consists of an introductory chapter and four essays. The introductory chapter presents an overview of topics and problems in spatial econometrics. It discusses spatial effects, spatial weights matrices, especially k-nearest neighbours weights matrices, and various spatial econometric models, as well as estimation methods and inference. Further, the problem of omitted variables, a few computational and empirical aspects, the bootstrap procedure and the spatial J-test are presented. In addition, a discussion on hedonic house price models is included. In the first essay a comparison is made between spatial econometrics and time series analysis. By restricting the attention to unilateral spatial autoregressive processes, it is shown that a unilateral spatial autoregression, which enjoys similar properties as an autoregression with time series, can be defined. By an empirical study on house price data the second essay shows that it is possible to form coordinate-based, spatially autoregressive variables, which are at least to some extent able to replace the spatial structure in a spatial econometric model. In the third essay a strategy for specifying a k-nearest neighbours weights matrix by applying the spatial J-test is suggested, studied and demonstrated. In the final fourth essay the properties of the asymptotic spatial J-test are further examined. A simulation study shows that the spatial J-test can be used for distinguishing between general spatial models with different k-nearest neighbours weights matrices. A bootstrap spatial J-test is suggested to correct the size of the asymptotic test in small samples.

Pitch discrimination in optimal and suboptimal acoustic environments: electroencephalographic, magnetoencephalographic, and behavioral evidence

Pitch discrimination is a fundamental property of the human auditory system. Our understanding of pitch-discrimination mechanisms is important from both theoretical and clinical perspectives. The discrimination of spectrally complex sounds is crucial in the processing of music and speech. Current methods of cognitive neuroscience can track the brain processes underlying sound processing either with precise temporal (EEG and MEG) or spatial resolution (PET and fMRI). A combination of different techniques is therefore required in contemporary auditory research. One of the problems in comparing the EEG/MEG and fMRI methods, however, is the fMRI acoustic noise. In the present thesis, EEG and MEG in combination with behavioral techniques were used, first, to define the ERP correlates of automatic pitch discrimination across a wide frequency range in adults and neonates and, second, they were used to determine the effect of recorded acoustic fMRI noise on those adult ERP and ERF correlates during passive and active pitch discrimination. Pure tones and complex 3-harmonic sounds served as stimuli in the oddball and matching-to-sample paradigms. The results suggest that pitch discrimination in adults, as reflected by MMN latency, is most accurate in the 1000-2000 Hz frequency range, and that pitch discrimination is facilitated further by adding harmonics to the fundamental frequency. Newborn infants are able to discriminate a 20% frequency change in the 250-4000 Hz frequency range, whereas the discrimination of a 5% frequency change was unconfirmed. Furthermore, the effect of the fMRI gradient noise on the automatic processing of pitch change was more prominent for tones with frequencies exceeding 500 Hz, overlapping with the spectral maximum of the noise. When the fundamental frequency of the tones was lower than the spectral maximum of the noise, fMRI noise had no effect on MMN and P3a, whereas the noise delayed and suppressed N1 and exogenous N2. Noise also suppressed the N1 amplitude in a matching-to-sample working memory task. However, the task-related difference observed in the N1 component, suggesting a functional dissociation between the processing of spatial and non-spatial auditory information, was partially preserved in the noise condition. Noise hampered feature coding mechanisms more than it hampered the mechanisms of change detection, involuntary attention, and the segregation of the spatial and non-spatial domains of working-memory. The data presented in the thesis can be used to develop clinical ERP-based frequency-discrimination protocols and combined EEG and fMRI experimental paradigms.

Human brain mechanisms of auditory and audiovisual selective attention

Selective attention refers to the process in which certain information is actively selected for conscious processing, while other information is ignored. The aim of the present studies was to investigate the human brain mechanisms of auditory and audiovisual selective attention with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetoencephalography (MEG). The main focus was on attention-related processing in the auditory cortex. It was found that selective attention to sounds strongly enhances auditory cortex activity associated with processing the sounds. In addition, the amplitude of this attention-related modulation was shown to increase with the presentation rate of attended sounds. Attention to the pitch of sounds and to their location appeared to enhance activity in overlapping auditory-cortex regions. However, attention to location produced stronger activity than attention to pitch in the temporo-parietal junction and frontal cortical regions. In addition, a study on bimodal attentional selection found stronger audiovisual than auditory or visual attention-related modulations in the auditory cortex. These results were discussed in light of Näätänen s attentional-trace theory and other research concerning the brain mechanisms of selective attention.

Human brain networks of auditory attention and working memory

This thesis examines brain networks involved in auditory attention and auditory working memory using measures of task performance, brain activity, and neuroanatomical connectivity. Auditory orienting and maintenance of attention were compared with visual orienting and maintenance of attention, and top-down controlled attention was compared to bottom-up triggered attention in audition. Moreover, the effects of cognitive load on performance and brain activity were studied using an auditory working memory task. Corbetta and Shulman s (2002) model of visual attention suggests that what is known as the dorsal attention system (intraparietal sulcus/superior parietal lobule, IPS/SPL and frontal eye field, FEF) is involved in the control of top-down controlled attention, whereas what is known as the ventral attention system (temporo-parietal junction, TPJ and areas of the inferior/middle frontal gyrus, IFG/MFG) is involved in bottom-up triggered attention. The present results show that top-down controlled auditory attention also activates IPS/SPL and FEF. Furthermore, in audition, TPJ and IFG/MFG were activated not only by bottom-up triggered attention, but also by top-down controlled attention. In addition, the posterior cerebellum and thalamus were activated by top-down controlled attention shifts and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) was activated by to-be-ignored, but attention-catching salient changes in auditory input streams. VMPFC may be involved in the evaluation of environmental events causing the bottom-up triggered engagement of attention. Auditory working memory activated a brain network that largely overlapped with the one activated by top-down controlled attention. The present results also provide further evidence of the role of the cerebellum in cognitive processing: During auditory working memory tasks, both activity in the posterior cerebellum (the crus I/II) and reaction speed increased when the cognitive load increased. Based on the present results and earlier theories on the role of the cerebellum in cognitive processing, the function of the posterior cerebellum in cognitive tasks may be related to the optimization of response speed.

Self-rating scales in the assessment of current and childhood symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adults

Objective: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a life-long condition, but because of its historical status as a self-remitting disorder of childhood, empirically validated and reliable methods for the assessment of adults are scarce. In this study, the validity and reliability of the Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS) and the Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), which survey childhood and current symptoms of ADHD, respectively, were studied in a Finnish sample. Methods: The self-rating scales were administered to adults with an ADHD diagnosis (n = 38), healthy control participants (n = 41), and adults diagnosed with dyslexia (n = 37). Items of the self-rating scales were subjected to factor analyses, after which the reliability and discriminatory power of the subscales, derived from the factors, were examined. The effects of group and gender on the subscales of both rating scales were studied. Additionally, the effect of age on the subscales of the WURS was investigated. Finally, the diagnostic accuracy of the total scores was studied. Results: On the basis of the factor analyses, a four-factor structure for the WURS and five-factor structure for the APQ had the best fit to the data. All of the subscales of the APQ and three of the WURS achieved sufficient reliability. The ADHD group had the highest scores on all of the subscales of the APQ, whereas two of the subscales of the WURS did not statistically differ between the ADHD and the Dyslexia group. None of the subscales of the WURS or the APQ was associated with the participant's gender. However, one subscale of the WURS describing dysthymia was positively correlated with the participant's age. With the WURS, the probability of a correct positive classification was .59 in the current sample and .21 when the relatively low prevalence of adult ADHD was taken into account. The probabilities of correct positive classifications with the APQ were .71 and .23, respectively. Conclusions: The WURS and the APQ can provide accurate and reliable information of childhood and adult ADHD symptoms, given some important constraints. Classifications made on the basis of the total scores are reliable predictors of ADHD diagnosis only in populations with a high proportion of ADHD and a low proportion of other similar disorders. The subscale scores can provide detailed information of an individual's symptoms if the characteristics and limitations of each domain are taken into account. Improvements are suggested for two subscales of the WURS.

Gone with the Wind? : Immigrant Women and Transnational Everyday Life in Finland

Increased mass migration, as a result of economic hardship, natural disasters and wars, forces many people to arrive on the shores of cultures very different from those they left. How do they manage the legacy of the past and the challenges of their new everyday life? This is a study of immigrant women living in transnational families that act and communicate across national borders on a near-daily basis. The research was carried out amongst immigrant women who were currently living in Finland. The research asks how transnational everyday life is constructed. As everyday life, due to its mundane nature, is difficult to operationalise for research purposes, mixed data collection methods were needed to capture the passing moments that easily become invisible. Thus, the data were obtained from photographic diaries (459 photographs) taken by the research participants themselves. Additionally, stimulated recall discussions, structured questionnaires and participant observation notes were used to complement the photographic data. A tool for analysing the activities devealed in the data was created on the assumption that a family is an active unit that accommodates the current situation in which it is embedded. Everyday life activities were analysed emphasizing social, modal and spatial dimensions. Important daily moments were placed on a continuum: for me , for immediate others and with immediate others . They portrayed everyday routines and exceptions to it. The data matrix was developed as part of this study. The spatial dimensions formed seven units of activity settings: space for friendship, food, resting, childhood, caring, space to learn and an orderly space. Attention was also paid to the accommodative nature of activities; how women maintain traditions and adapt to Finnish life or re-create new activity patterns. Women s narrations revealed the importance of everyday life. The transnational chain of women across generations and countries, comprised of the daughters, mothers and grandmothers was important. The women showed the need for information technology in their transnational lives. They had an active relationship to religion; the denial or importance of it was obvious. Also arranging one s life in Finnish society was central to their narrations. The analysis exposed everyday activities, showed the importance of social networks and the uniqueness of each woman and family. It revealed everyday life in a structured way. The method of analysis that evolved in this study together with the research findings are of potential use to professionals, allowing the targeting of interventions to improve the everyday lives of immigrants.

Developmental, functional brain imaging and electrophysiological evidence of visual and auditory working memory

Intact function of working memory (WM) is essential for children and adults to cope with every day life. Children with deficits in WM mechanisms have learning difficulties that are often accompanied by behavioral problems. The neural processes subserving WM, and brain structures underlying this system, continue to develop during childhood till adolescence and young adulthood. With functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) it is possible to investigate the organization and development of WM. The present thesis aimed to investigate, using behavioral and neuroimaging methods, whether mnemonic processing of spatial and nonspatial visual information is segregated in the developing and mature human brain. A further aim in this research was to investigate the organization and development of audiospatial and visuospatial information processing in WM. The behavioral results showed that spatial and nonspatial visual WM processing is segregated in the adult brain. The fMRI result in children suggested that memory load related processing of spatial and nonspatial visual information engages common cortical networks, whereas selective attention to either type of stimuli recruits partially segregated areas in the frontal, parietal and occipital cortices. Deactivation mechanisms that are important in the performance of WM tasks in adults are already operational in healthy school-aged children. Electrophysiological evidence suggested segregated mnemonic processing of visual and auditory location information. The results of the development of audiospatial and visuospatial WM demonstrate that WM performance improves with age, suggesting functional maturation of underlying cognitive processes and brain areas. The development of the performance of spatial WM tasks follows a different time course in boys and girls indicating a larger degree of immaturity in the male than female WM systems. Furthermore, the differences in mastering auditory and visual WM tasks may indicate that visual WM reaches functional maturity earlier than the corresponding auditory system. Spatial WM deficits may underlie some learning difficulties and behavioral problems related to impulsivity, difficulties in concentration, and hyperactivity. Alternatively, anxiety or depressive symptoms may affect WM function and the ability to concentrate, being thus the primary cause of poor academic achievement in children.

Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Spatial variation of climate and the impact of disturbances on local climate and forest recovery in northern Finland

The structure and function of northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and variability and by human-induced disturbances. The projected global change is likely to have a pronounced effect on the distribution and productivity of different species, generating large changes in the equilibrium at the tree-line. In turn, movement of the tree-line and the redistribution of species produce feedback to both the local and the regional climate. This research was initiated with the objective of examining the influence of natural conditions on the small-scale spatial variation of climate in Finnish Lapland, and to study the interaction and feedback mechanisms in the climate-disturbances-vegetation system near the climatological border of boreal forest. The high (1 km) resolution spatial variation of climate parameters over northern Finland was determined by applying the Kriging interpolation method that takes into account the effect of external forcing variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, elevation, sea and lake coverage. Of all the natural factors shaping the climate, the geographical position, local topography and altitude proved to be the determining ones. Spatial analyses of temperature- and precipitation-derived parameters based on a 30-year dataset (1971-2000) provide a detailed description of the local climate. Maps of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, the frost-free period and the growing season indicate that the most favourable thermal conditions exist in the south-western part of Lapland, around large water bodies and in the Kemijoki basin, while the coldest regions are in highland and fell Lapland. The distribution of precipitation is predominantly longitudinally dependent but with the definite influence of local features. The impact of human-induced disturbances, i.e., forest fires, on local climate and its implication for forest recovery near the northern timberline was evaluated in the Tuntsa area of eastern Lapland, damaged by a widespread forest fire in 1960 and suffering repeatedly-failed vegetation recovery since that. Direct measurements of the local climate and simulated heat and water fluxes indicated the development of a more severe climate and physical conditions on the fire-disturbed site. Removal of the original, predominantly Norway spruce and downy birch vegetation and its substitution by tundra vegetation has generated increased wind velocity and reduced snow accumulation, associated with a large variation in soil temperature and moisture and deep soil frost. The changed structural parameters of the canopy have determined changes in energy fluxes by reducing the latter over the tundra vegetation. The altered surface and soil conditions, as well as the evolved severe local climate, have negatively affected seedling growth and survival, leading to more unfavourable conditions for the reproduction of boreal vegetation and thereby causing deviations in the regional position of the timberline. However it should be noted that other factors, such as an inadequate seed source or seedbed, the poor quality of the soil and the intensive logging of damaged trees could also exacerbate the poor tree regeneration. In spite of the failed forest recovery at Tunsta, the position and composition of the timberline and tree-line in Finnish Lapland may also benefit from present and future changes in climate. The already-observed and the projected increase in temperature, the prolonged growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation regime foster tree growth and new regeneration, resulting in an advance of the timberline and tree-line northward and upward. This shift in the distribution of vegetation might be decelerated or even halted by local topoclimatic conditions and by the expected increase in the frequency of disturbances.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.