Strike Hard, Strike Sure - Operation Musketeer : British Military Planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

This study analyses British military planning and actions during the Suez Crisis in 1956. It seeks to find military reasons for the change of concepts during the planning and compares these reasons with the tactical doctrines of the time. The thesis takes extensive advantage of military documents preserved in the National Archives, London. In order to expand the understanding of the exchange of views during the planning process, the private papers of high ranking military officials have also been consulted. French military documents preserved in the Service Historique de la Defence, Paris, have provided an important point of comparison. The Suez Crisis caught the British armed forces in the middle of a transition phase. The main objective of the armed forces was to establish a credible deterrence against the Soviet Union. However, due to overseas commitments the Middle East playing a paramount role because of its economic importance the armed forces were compelled to also prepare for Limited War and the Cold War. The armed forces were not fully prepared to meet this demand. The Middle Eastern garrison was being re-organised after the withdrawal from the Canal Base and the concept for a strategic reserve was unimplemented. The tactical doctrines of the time were based on experiences from the Second World War. As a result, the British view of amphibious operations and the subsequent campaigns emphasised careful planning, mastery of the sea and the air, sufficient superiority in numbers and firepower, centralised command and extensive administrative preparations. The British military had realized that Nasser could nationalise the Suez Canal and prepared an outline plan to meet this contingency. Although the plan was nothing more than a concept, it was accepted as a basis for further planning when the Canal was nationalised at the end of July. This plan was short-lived. The nominated Task Force Commanders shifted the landing site from Port Said to Alexandria because it enabled faster expansion of the bridgehead. In addition, further operations towards Cairo the hub of Nasser s power would be easier to conduct. The operational concept can be described as being traditional and was in accordance with the amphibious warfare doctrine. This plan was completely changed at the beginning of September. Apparently, General Charles Keightley, the Commander-in-Chief, and the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee developed the idea of prolonged aerial operations. The essence of the concept was to break the Egyptian will to resist by attacking the oil facilities, the transportation system and the armed forces. This victory through air concept would be supported by carefully planned psychological operations. This concept was in accordance with the Royal Air Force doctrine, which promoted a bomber offensive against selected target categories. General Keightley s plan was accepted despite suspicions at every planning level. The Joint Planning Staff and the Task Force Commanders opposed the concept from the beginning to the end because of its unpredictability. There was no information that suggested the bombing would persuade the Egyptians to submit. This problem was worsened by the fact that British intelligence was unable to provide reliable strategic information. The Task Force Commanders, who were responsible for the tactical plans, were not able to change Keightley s mind, but the concept was expanded to include a traditional amphibious assault on Port Said due to their resistance. The bombing campaign was never tested as the Royal Air Force was denied authorisation to destroy the transportation and oil targets. The Chiefs of Staff and General Keightley were too slow to realise that the execution of the plan depended on the determination of the Prime Minister. However, poor health, a lack of American and domestic support and the indecisiveness of the military had ruined Eden s resolve. In the end, a very traditional amphibious assault, which was bound to succeed at the tactical level but fail at the strategic level, was launched against Port Said.

Factors related to seat belt use : A Turkish case

Seat belts are effective safety devices used to protect car occupants from severe injuries and fatalities during road vehicle accidents. Despite the proven effectiveness of seat belts, seat belt use rates are quite low, especially in developing countries, such as Turkey. The general aim of the present study was to investigate a large variety of factors related to seat belt use among Turkish car occupants using different perspectives and methods and therefore, to contribute to the design of effective seat belt use interventions for increasing seat belt use rates in Turkey. Five sub-studies were conducted within the present study. In the first sub-study, environmental (e.g., road type) and psycho-social factors (e.g., belt use by other car occupants) related to the seat belt use of front-seat occupants were investigated using observation techniques. Being male, of a young age, and traveling on city roads were the main factors negatively related to seat belt use. Furthermore, seat belt use by the drivers and front-seat passengers was highly correlated and a significant predictors of each other. In the second sub-study, the motivations of the car occupants for seat belt use and non-use were investigated using interview techniques. Situational conditions, such as traveling on city roads and for short distances, and not believing in the effectiveness and relevance of seat belt use for safety, were the most frequently reported reasons for not using a seat belt. Safety, habit and avoiding punishment were among the most frequently reported reasons for using a seat belt. In the third sub-study, the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Health Belief Model (HBM) were applied to seat belt use using Structural Equation Modeling techniques. The TPB model showed a good fit to the data, whereas the HBM showed a poor fit to the data. Within the TPB model, attitude and subjective norm were significant predictors of intentions to use a seat belt on both urban and rural roads. In the fourth sub-study, seat belt use frequency and motivations for seat belt use among taxi drivers were investigated and compared between free-time and work-time driving using a survey. The results showed that taxi drivers used seat belts more when driving a private car in their free-times compared to when driving a taxi during their work-times. The lack of a legal obligation to use a seat belt in city traffic and fear of being attacked or robbed by the passengers were found as two specific reasons for not using a seat belt when driving a taxi. Lastly, in the fifth sub-study, the relationship of seat belt use to driver and health behaviors was investigated using a survey. Although seat belt use was related both to health and driver behaviors, factor analysis results showed that it grouped with driver behaviors. Based on the results of the sub-studies, a tentative empirical model showing different predictors of seat belt use was proposed. According to the model, safety and normative motivations and perceived physical barriers related to seat belt use are the three important predictors of seat belt use. Keywords: Seat belt use; environmental factors; psycho-social factors; safety and normative motivations; the Theory of Planned Behavior; the Health Belief Model; health behaviors; driver behaviors; front-seat occupants; taxi drivers; Turkey.

Econometric models of Finnish non-industrial private forest owners' timber supply and timber stock

This dissertation examines the short- and long-run impacts of timber prices and other factors affecting NIPF owners' timber harvesting and timber stocking decisions. The utility-based Faustmann model provides testable hypotheses of the exogenous variables retained in the timber supply analysis. The timber stock function, derived from a two-period biomass harvesting model, is estimated using a two-step GMM estimator based on balanced panel data from 1983 to 1991. Timber supply functions are estimated using a Tobit model adjusted for heteroscedasticity and nonnormality of errors based on panel data from 1994 to 1998. Results show that if specification analysis of the Tobit model is ignored, inconsistency and biasedness can have a marked effect on parameter estimates. The empirical results show that owner's age is the single most important factor determining timber stock; timber price is the single most important factor in harvesting decision. The results of the timber supply estimations can be interpreted using utility-based Faustmann model of a forest owner who values a growing timber in situ.

Nature-based entrepreneurship in private forests – The preconditions for the sustainable co-operation between private forest owners and entrepreneurs

Nature-based tourism is one of the fastest growing tourism sectors at the moment. It is also the form of tourism that often benefits the economy of rural areas. In addition to state owned forests, nature-based tourism is in many countries situated in private forests, which are not owned by entrepreneurs themselves. Therefore, the ownership issues and property rights form central challenges for the business activities. The maintenance of good relationships between private forest owners and entrepreneurs, as well as combining their interests, becomes vital. These relationships are typically exceptionally asymmetrical, granting the forest owner unilateral rights regulating the business activities in their forests. Despite this, the co-operation is typically very informal and the existing economic compensation models do not necessarily cover all the forest owners’ costs. The ownership issues bring their own characteristics to the relationship. Therefore, we argue that different aspects of ownership, especially psychological ones, have to be more critically examined and taken into consideration in order to build truly successful relations between these parties. This is crucial for sustaining the business activities. The core of psychological ownership is the sense of possession. Psychological ownership can be defined as a state, in which individuals perceive the target of ownership, the object or idea, as “theirs”. The concept of psychological ownership has so far been mainly used in the context of professional organizations. In this research, it has been used to explain the relationships between private forest owners and nature-based entrepreneurs. The aim of this study is to provide new information concerning the effect of psychological ownership on the collaboration and to highlight the good practices. To address the complexity of the phenomenon, qualitative case study methods were adopted to understand the role of ownership at the level of subjective experience. The empirical data was based on 27 in-depth interviews with private forest owners and nature-based tourism entrepreneurs. The data was analysed by using the methods of qualitative analysis to construct different typologies to describe the essence of successful collaboration. As a result of the study, the special characteristics and the practical level expressions of the psychological ownership in the privately owned forest context were analysed. Four different strategies to perceive these ownership characteristics in co-operation relationships were found. By taking the psychological ownership into consideration via these strategies, the nature-based entrepreneurs aim to balance the co-operation relationship and minimise the risks in long term activities based on privately owned forests.

Inventory Routing - A Strategic Management Accounting Perspective

This dissertation develops a strategic management accounting perspective of inventory routing. The thesis studies the drivers of cost efficiency gains by identifying the role of the underlying cost structure, demand, information sharing, forecasting accuracy, service levels, vehicle fleet, planning horizon and other strategic factors as well as the interaction effects among these factors with respect to performance outcomes. The task is to enhance the knowledge of the strategic situations that favor the implementation of inventory routing systems, understanding cause-and-effect relationships, linkages and gaining a holistic view of the value proposition of inventory routing. The thesis applies an exploratory case study design, which is based on normative quantitative empirical research using optimization, simulation and factor analysis. Data and results are drawn from a real world application to cash supply chains. The first research paper shows that performance gains require a common cost component and cannot be explained by simple linear or affine cost structures. Inventory management and distribution decisions become separable in the absence of a set-dependent cost structure, and neither economies of scope nor coordination problems are present in this case. The second research paper analyzes whether information sharing improves the overall forecasting accuracy. Analysis suggests that the potential for information sharing is limited to coordination of replenishments and that central information do not yield more accurate forecasts based on joint forecasting. The third research paper develops a novel formulation of the stochastic inventory routing model that accounts for minimal service levels and forecasting accuracy. The developed model allows studying the interaction of minimal service levels and forecasting accuracy with the underlying cost structure in inventory routing. Interestingly, results show that the factors minimal service level and forecasting accuracy are not statistically significant, and subsequently not relevant for the strategic decision problem to introduce inventory routing, or in other words, to effectively internalize inventory management and distribution decisions at the supplier. Consequently the main contribution of this thesis is the result that cost benefits of inventory routing are derived from the joint decision model that accounts for the underlying set-dependent cost structure rather than the level of information sharing. This result suggests that the value of information sharing of demand and inventory data is likely to be overstated in prior literature. In other words, cost benefits of inventory routing are primarily determined by the cost structure (i.e. level of fixed costs and transportation costs) rather than the level of information sharing, joint forecasting, forecasting accuracy or service levels.

Jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron yhteiskunnalliset kustannukset Punavuoressa – Tarkastelussa seka-, bio-, kartonki- ja paperijäte

Tämän pro gradu -tutkielman tarkoituksena on määrittää jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron yhteiskunnalliset kustannukset valitulla tutkimusalueella Helsingin Punavuoressa. Jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron kustannukset vastaavat suuruudeltaan merkittävää osaa jätehuollon kokonaiskustannuksista, minkä vuoksi kustannusten tutkimiselle ja tarkastelulle löytyy kysyntää. Lisäksi keräyksen ja siirron kustannukset saattavat vaihdella suuresti johtuen erilaisista kaupunkirakenteista,keräysmenetelmistä ja teknologioista, joten tapaustarkastelun avulla pystytään selvittämään yksityiskohtaisesti alueen jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron kustannukset. Tutkimusalue Helsingin Punavuoressa on yksi Suomen tiheimmin asutuista alueista, missä jätteidenkeräystä hankaloittaa kapeat kadut, useat sisäpihoille sijoitetut jätehuoneet ja vilkas liikenne. Erityispiirteidensä vuoksi jätteenkeräys- ja siirto aiheuttaa tutkimusalueella yksityisten kustannusten lisäksi myös useita ulkoisvaikutuksia muun muassa ilmansaasteiden ja viihtyvyyshaittojen muodossa. Tässä työssä lasketaan jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron yhteiskunnalliset kustannukset neljän eri jätelajin osalta huomioimalla sekä yksityiset kustannustekijät että ulkoiskustannuksina syntyvien päästöjen kustannukset. Työn aineistona on käytetty erilaisia kustannuslaskelmien kirjallisuuslähteitä, asiantuntija-arvioita ja tutkimusalueella tehtyjä kellotusmittauksia. Alueen kellotusmittauksiin perustuvalla aikaperusteisella laskentatavalla jätteenkeräyksen ja -siirron jätetonnikohtaisiksi keskimääräisiksi kustannuksiksi saatiin 73 €/t. Kustannuksissa havaittiin kuitenkin suuria jätelajikohtaisia eroja, jolloin keräyksen ja siirron kustannukset heittelivät 49–125 €/t välillä. Suuret jätelajikohtaiset kustannuserot ovat selitettävissä pitkälti jätteiden koostumuksella, koska kevyiden ja paljon tilaa vievien jätelajien jätetonnikohtaiset kustannukset olivat suurimpia. Teoriataustan ja lähdeaineiston perusteella saadut tulokset myös osoittavat, että jätteenkeräyksen ja siirron kustannuksista huomioitujen ulkoiskustannusten osuus on häviävän pieni verrattuna yksityisten kustannusten tasoon.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies and potential allowable cut.

In the study, the potential allowable cut in the district of Pohjois-Savo - based on the non-industrial private forest landowners' (NIPF) choices of timber management strategies - was clarified. Alternative timber management strategies were generated, and the choices and factors affecting the choices of timber management strategies by NIPF landowners were studied. The choices of timber management strategies were solved by maximizing the utility functions of the NIPF landowners. The parameters of the utility functions were estimated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The level of the potential allowable cut was compared to the cutting budgets based on the 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories (NFI7 and NFI8), to the combining of private forestry plans, and to the realized drain from non-industrial private forests. The potential allowable cut was calculated using the same MELA system as has been used in the calculation of the national cutting budget. The data consisted of the NIPF holdings (from the TASO planning system) that had been inventoried compartmentwise and had forestry plans made during the years 1984-1992. The NIPF landowners' choices of timber management strategies were clarified by a two-phase mail inquiry. The most preferred strategy obtained was "sustainability" (chosen by 62 % of landowners). The second in order of preference was "finance" (17 %) and the third was "saving" (11 %). "No cuttings", and "maximum cuttings" were the least preferred (9 % and 1 %, resp.). The factors promoting the choices of strategies with intensive cuttings were a) "farmer as forest owner" and "owning fields", b) "increase in the size of the forest holding", c) agriculture and forestry orientation in production, d) "decreasing short term stumpage earning expectations", e) "increasing intensity of future cuttings", and f) "choice of forest taxation system based on site productivity". The potential allowable cut defined in the study was 20 % higher than the average of the realized drain during the years 1988-1993, which in turn, was at the same level as the cutting budget based on the combining of forestry plans in eastern Finland. Respectively, the potential allowable cut defined in the study was 12 % lower than the NFI8-based greatest sustained allowable cut for the 1990s. Using the method presented in this study, timber management strategies can be clarified for non-industrial private forest landowners in different parts of Finland. Based on the choices of timber managemet strategies, regular cutting budgets can be calculated more realistically than before.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies.

The factors affecting the non-industrial, private forest landowners' (hereafter referred to using the acronym NIPF) strategic decisions in management planning are studied. A genetic algorithm is used to induce a set of rules predicting potential cut of the landowners' choices of preferred timber management strategies. The rules are based on variables describing the characteristics of the landowners and their forest holdings. The predictive ability of a genetic algorithm is compared to linear regression analysis using identical data sets. The data are cross-validated seven times applying both genetic algorithm and regression analyses in order to examine the data-sensitivity and robustness of the generated models. The optimal rule set derived from genetic algorithm analyses included the following variables: mean initial volume, landowner's positive price expectations for the next eight years, landowner being classified as farmer, and preference for the recreational use of forest property. When tested with previously unseen test data, the optimal rule set resulted in a relative root mean square error of 0.40. In the regression analyses, the optimal regression equation consisted of the following variables: mean initial volume, proportion of forestry income, intention to cut extensively in future, and positive price expectations for the next two years. The R2 of the optimal regression equation was 0.34 and the relative root mean square error obtained from the test data was 0.38. In both models, mean initial volume and positive stumpage price expectations were entered as significant predictors of potential cut of preferred timber management strategy. When tested with the complete data set of 201 observations, both the optimal rule set and the optimal regression model achieved the same level of accuracy.