Essays on Labor Market Frictions, Technological Change and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

The dissertation consists of an introductory chapter and three essays that apply search-matching theory to study the interaction of labor market frictions, technological change and macroeconomic fluctuations. The first essay studies the impact of capital-embodied growth on equilibrium unemployment by extending a vintage capital/search model to incorporate vintage human capital. In addition to the capital obsolescence (or creative destruction) effect that tends to raise unemployment, vintage human capital introduces a skill obsolescence effect of faster growth that has the opposite sign. Faster skill obsolescence reduces the value of unemployment, hence wages and leads to more job creation and less job destruction, unambiguously reducing unemployment. The second essay studies the effect of skill biased technological change on skill mismatch and the allocation of workers and firms in the labor market. By allowing workers to invest in education, we extend a matching model with two-sided heterogeneity to incorporate an endogenous distribution of high and low skill workers. We consider various possibilities for the cost of acquiring skills and show that while unemployment increases in most scenarios, the effect on the distribution of vacancy and worker types varies according to the structure of skill costs. When the model is extended to incorporate endogenous labor market participation, we show that the unemployment rate becomes less informative of the state of the labor market as the participation margin absorbs employment effects. The third essay studies the effects of labor taxes on equilibrium labor market outcomes and macroeconomic dynamics in a New Keynesian model with matching frictions. Three policy instruments are considered: a marginal tax and a tax subsidy to produce tax progression schemes, and a replacement ratio to account for variability in outside options. In equilibrium, the marginal tax rate and replacement ratio dampen economic activity whereas tax subsidies boost the economy. The marginal tax rate and replacement ratio amplify shock responses whereas employment subsidies weaken them. The tax instruments affect the degree to which the wage absorbs shocks. We show that increasing tax progression when taxation is initially progressive is harmful for steady state employment and output, and amplifies the sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to shocks. When taxation is initially proportional, increasing progression is beneficial for output and employment and dampens shock responses.

Unraveling the helix of change : An activity-theoretical study of health care change efforts and their consequences

M.A. (Educ.) Anu Kajamaa from the University of Helsinki, Center for Research on Activity, Development and Learning (CRADLE), examines change efforts and their consequences in health care in the public sector. The aim of her academic dissertation is, by providing a new conceptual framework, to widen our understanding of organizational change efforts and their consequences and managerial challenges. Despite the multiple change efforts, the results of health care development projects have not been very promising, and many developmental needs and managerial challenges exist. The study challenges the predominant, well-framed health care change paradigm and calls for an expanded view to explore the underlying issues and multiplicities of change efforts and their consequences. The study asks what kind of expanded conceptual framework is needed to better understand organizational change as transcending currently dominant oppositions in management thinking, specifically in the field of health care. The study includes five explorative case studies of health care change efforts and their consequences in Finland. Theory and practice are tightly interconnected in the study. The methodology of the study integrates the ethnography of organizational change, a narrative approach and cultural-historical activity theory. From the stance of activity theory, historicity, contradictions, locality and employee participation play significant roles in developing health care. The empirical data of the study has mainly been collected in two projects, funded by the Finnish Work Environment Fund. The data was collected in public sector health care organizations during the years 2004-2010. By exploring the oppositions between distinct views on organizational change and the multi-site, multi-level and multi-logic of organizational change, the study develops an expanded, multidimensional activity-theoretical framework on organizational change and management thinking. The findings of the study contribute to activity theory and organization studies, and provide information for health care management and practitioners. The study illuminates that continuous development efforts bridged to one another and anchored to collectively created new activity models can lead to significant improvements and organizational learning in health care. The study presents such expansive learning processes. The ways of conducting change efforts in organizations play a critical role in the creation of collective new practices and tools and in establishing ownership over them. Some of the studied change efforts were discontinuous or encapsulated, not benefiting the larger whole. The study shows that the stagnation and unexpected consequences of change efforts relate to the unconnectedness of the different organizational sites, levels and logics. If not dealt with, the unintended consequences such as obstacles, breaks and conflicts may stem promising change and learning processes.

Pain among employees : risk factors and consequences

The overall objective of this study was to gain epidemiological knowledge about pain among employee populations. More specifically, the aims were to assess the prevalence of pain, to identify socio-economic risk groups and work-related psychosocial risk factors, and to assess the consequences in terms of health-related functioning and sickness absence. The study was carried out among the municipal employees of the City of Helsinki. Data comprised questionnaire survey conducted in years 2000-2002 and register data on sickness absence. Altogether 8960 40-60 year old employees participated to the survey (response rate 67%). Pain is common among ageing employees. Approximately 29 per cent of employees reported chronic pain and 15 per cent acute pain, and about seven per cent reported moderately or severely limiting disabling chronic pain. Pain was more common among those with lower level of education or in a low occupational class. -- Psychosocial work environment was associated with pain reports. Job strain, bullying at workplace, and problems in combining work and home duties were associated with pain among women. Among men combining work and home duties was not associated with pain, whereas organizational injustice showed associations. Pain affects functional capacity and predicts sickness absence. Those with pain reported lower level of both mental and physical functioning than those with no pain, physical functioning being more strongly affected than mental. Bodily location of pain or whether pain was acute or chronic had only minor impact on the variation in functioning, whereas the simple count of painful locations was associated with widest variation. Pain accounted for eight per cent of short term (1-3 day) sickness absence spells among men and 13 per cent among women. Of absence spells lasting between four and 14 days pain accounted for 23 per cent among women and 25 per cent among men, corresponding figures for over 14 day absence spells being 37 and 30 per cent. The association between pain and sickness absence was relatively independent of physical and psychosocial work factors, especially among women. The results of this study provide a picture of the epidemiology of pain among employees. Pain is a significant problem that seriously affects work ability. Information on risk groups can be utilized to make prevention measures more effective among those at high risk, and to decrease pain rates and thereby narrow the differences between socio-economic groups. Furthermore, the work-related psychosocial risk factors identified in this study are potentially modifiable, and it should be possible to target interventions on decreasing pain rates among employees.

The Nature, Origins, and Consequences of Finnish Shame-Proneness: A Grounded Theory Study

Although shame is a universal human emotion and is one of the most difficult emotions to overcome, its origins and nature as well as its effects on psychosocial functioning are not well understood or defined. While psychological and spiritual counselors are aware of the effects and consequences of shame for an individual s internal well-being and social life, shame is often still considered a taboo topic and is not given adequate attention. This study aims to explain the developmental process and effects of shame and shame-proneness for individuals and provide tools for practitioners to work more effectively with their clients who struggle with shame. This study presents the empirical foundation for a grounded theory that describes and explains the nature, origins, and consequences of shame-proneness. The study focused on Finnish participants childhood, adolescence and adulthood experiences and why they developed shame-proneness, what it meant for them as children and adolescents and what it meant for them as adults. The data collection phase of this study began in 2000. The participants were recruited through advertisements in local and country-wide newspapers and magazines. Altogether 325 people responded to the advertisements by sending an essay concerning their shame and guilt experiences. For the present study, 135 essays were selected and from those who sent an essay 19 were selected for in-depth interviews. In addition to essays and interviews, participants personal notebooks and childhood hospital and medical reports as well as their scores on the Internalized Shame Scale were analyzed. The development of shame-proneness and significant experiences and events during childhood and adolescence (e.g., health, parenting and parents behavior, humiliation, bullying, neglect, maltreatment and abuse) are discussed and the connections of shame-proneness to psychological concepts such as self-esteem, attachment, perfectionism, narcissism, submissiveness, pleasing others, heightened interpersonal subjectivity, and codependence are explained. Relationships and effects of shame-proneness on guilt, spirituality, temperament, coping strategies, defenses, personality formation and psychological health are also explicated. In addition, shame expressions and the development of shame triggers as well as internalized and externalized shame are clarified. These connections and developments are represented by the core category lack of gaining love, validation and protection as the authentic self. The conclusions drawn from the study include a categorization of shame-prone Finnish people according to their childhood and adolescent experiences and the characteristics of their shame-proneness and personality. Implications for psychological and spiritual counseling are also discussed. Key words: shame, internalized shame, external shame, shame development, shame triggers, guilt, self-esteem, attachment, narcissism, perfectionism, submissiveness, codependence, childhood neglect, childhood abuse, childhood maltreatment, emotional abuse, sexual abuse, spiritual abuse, psychological well-being

Causes and consequences of inbreeding in the ant Formica exsecta

Human actions cause destruction and fragmentation of natural habitats, predisposing populations to loss of genetic diversity and inbreeding, which may further decrease their fitness and survival. Understanding these processes is a main concern in conservation genetics. Yet data from natural populations is scarce, particularly on invertebrates, owing to difficulties in measuring both fitness and inbreeding in the wild. Ants are social insects, and a prime example of an ecologically important group for which the effects of inbreeding remain largely unstudied. Social insects serve key roles in all terrestrial ecosystems, and the division of labor between the females in the colonies queens reproduce, workers tend to the developing brood probably is central to their ecological success. Sociality also has important implications for the effects of inbreeding. Despite their relative abundance, the effective population sizes of social insects tend to be small, owing to the low numbers of reproductive individuals relative to the numbers of sterile workers. This may subject social insects to loss of genetic diversity and subsequent inbreeding depression. Moreover, both the workers and queens can be inbred, with different and possibly multiplicative consequences. The aim of this study was to investigate causes and consequences of inbreeding in a natural population of ants. I used a combination of long-term field and genetic data from colonies of the narrow-headed ant Formica exsecta to examine dispersal, mating behavior and the occurrence of inbreeding, and its consequences on individual and colony traits. Mating in this species takes place in nuptial flights that have been assumed to be population-wide and panmictic. My results, however, show that dispersal is local, with queens establishing new colonies as close as 60 meters from their natal colony. Even though actual sib-mating was rare, individuals from different but related colonies pair, which causes the population to be inbred. Furthermore, multiple mates of queens were related to each other, which also indicates localized mating flights. Hence, known mechanisms of inbreeding avoidance, dispersal and multiple mating, were not effective in this population, as neither reduced inbreeding level of the future colony. Inbreeding had negative consequences both at the individual and colony level. A queen that has mated with a related male produces inbred workers, which impairs the colony s reproductive success. The inbred colonies were less productive and, specifically, produced fewer new queens, possibly owing to effects of inbreeding on the caste determination of female larvae. A striking finding was that males raised in colonies with inbred workers were smaller, which reflects an effect of the social environment as males, being haploid, cannot be inbred themselves. The queens produced in the inbred colonies, in contrast, were not smaller, but their immune response was up-regulated. Inbreeding had no effect on queen dispersal, but inbred queens had a lower probability of successfully founding a new colony. Ultimately, queens that survived through the colony founding phase had a shorter lifespan. This supports the idea that inbreeding imposes a genetic stress, leading to inbreeding depression on both the queen and the colony level. My results show that inbreeding can have profound consequences on insects in the wild, and that in social species the effects of inbreeding may be multiplicative and mediated through the diversity of the social environment, as well as the genetic makeup of the individuals themselves. This emphasizes the need to take into account all levels of organization when assessing the effects of genetic diversity in social animals.

Causes and consequences of variation in nestling immune function

Defence against pathogens is a vital need of all living organisms that has led to the evolution of complex immune mechanisms. However, although immunocompetence the ability to resist pathogens and control infection has in recent decades become a focus for research in evolutionary ecology, the variation in immune function observed in natural populations is relatively little understood. This thesis examines sources of this variation (environmental, genetic and maternal effects) during the nestling stage and its fitness consequences in wild populations of passerines: the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis). A developing organism may face a dilemma as to whether to allocate limited resources to growth or to immune defences. The optimal level of investment in immunity is shaped inherently by specific requirements of the environment. If the probability of contracting infection is low, maintaining high growth rates even at the expense of immune function may be advantageous for nestlings, as body mass is usually a good predictor of post-fledging survival. In experiments with blue tits and haematophagous hen fleas (Ceratophyllus gallinae) using two methods, methionine supplementation (to manipulate nestlings resource allocation to cellular immune function) and food supplementation (to increase resource availability), I confirmed that there is a trade-off between growth and immunity and that the abundance of ectoparasites is an environmental factor affecting allocation of resources to immune function. A cross-fostering experiment also revealed that environmental heterogeneity in terms of abundance of ectoparasites may contribute to maintaining additive genetic variation in immunity and other traits. Animal model analysis of extensive data collected from the population of collared flycatchers on Gotland (Sweden) allowed examination of the narrow-sense heritability of PHA-response the most commonly used index of cellular immunocompetence in avian studies. PHA-response is not heritable in this population, but is subject to a non-heritable origin (presumably maternal) effect. However, experimental manipulation of yolk androgen levels indicates that the mechanism of the maternal effect in PHA-response is not in ovo deposition of androgens. The relationship between PHA-response and recruitment was studied for over 1300 collared flycatcher nestlings. Multivariate selection analysis shows that it is body mass, not PHA-response, that is under direct selection. PHA-response appears to be related to recruitment because of its positive relationship with body mass. These results imply that either PHA-response fails to capture the immune mechanisms that are relevant for defence against pathogens encountered by fledglings or that the selection pressure from parasites is not as strong as commonly assumed.

Sense of Coherence : Determinants and consequences

ABSTRACT Sense of coherence (SOC) is a core concept within Antonovsky s salutogenic theory and is argued to be a psychological determinant of health. The present social-epidemiological study explores the associations between a wide range of generalized resistance resources of SOC among Finnish- and Swedish-speaking women and men with a view to gaining deeper insight into its developmental circumstances and determinants. Secondly, a five-year follow-up study was conducted in order to assess the stability of SOC in difficult life events. Finally the role and effect of SOC in the intentions to retire early was investigated in a prospective study. The above studies were based on two data sets: the Finnish 'Survey on Living Conditions' (ELO-94) conducted in 1994 by means of personal face-to-face interviews (N=6506), and a prospective postal survey of the 15-year Health and Social Support (HeSSup) study for which the baseline data was collected in 1998 (N=25 898) and the follow-up in 2003. The present study reveals that the level of SOC in adulthood is strongly dependent on close and successful social relationships during both childhood and adulthood, and that there is a strong association with qualitative work features. Not having a partner as well as being unable to use one s skills at work proved to threaten men s SOC in particular, whereas a lack of social support did the same for women. Otherwise, the association with generalized resistance resources turned out to be quite similar in both genders. Swedish-speaking Finns appear to have a slightly stronger SOC due to the better psycho-emotional circumstances in the childhood home and work circumstances in adulthood, in other words higher levels of generalized resistance resources compared to Finnish speakers. These language group differences did not concern any social-life factors included in the present study. The results of the five-year follow-up study suggest that SOC is not stable, and that the level clearly decreases after a negative life event. Even a strong SOC decreased during the follow-up period and, furthermore, was no more stable than a mediocre or weak SOC. There seems to be a clear and independent association with the intentions to retire early among both men and women following full adjustment. Swedish speakers appear to be less inclined to retire early than Finnish speakers. In the light of the present study, it seems that SOC is determined not only by socio-economic factors but also by close and successful social relationships during both childhood and adulthood. This applied to both genders and language groups. Interventions aimed at promoting the health of the disadvantaged should therefore focus on families with children, and extend later also to other than socio-economic spheres of life. SOC theory could also be applied in efforts to inhibit early retirement: management practices aimed at providing employees with a work environment and tasks that are comprehensible, manageable and meaningful could potentially decrease the intentions to retire early.

Determinants and Consequences of Information Sharing with Key Suppliers

As companies become more efficient with respect to their internal processes, they begin to shift the focus beyond their corporate boundaries. Thus, the recent years have witnessed an increased interest by practitioners and researchers in interorganizational collaboration, which promises better firm performance through more effective supply chain management. It is no coincidence that this interest comes in parallel with the recent advancements in Information and Communication Technologies, which offer many new collaboration possibilities for companies. However, collaboration, or any other type of supply chain integration effort, relies heavily on information sharing. Hence, this study focuses on information sharing, in particular on the factors that determine it and on its value. The empirical evidence from Finnish and Swedish companies suggests that uncertainty (both demand and environmental) and dependency in terms of switching costs and asset specific investments are significant determinants of information sharing. Results also indicate that information sharing improves company performance regarding resource usage, output, and flexibility. However, companies share information more intensely at the operational rather than the strategic level. The use of supply chain practices and technologies is substantial but varies across the two countries. This study sheds light on a common trend in supply chains today. Whereas the results confirm the value of information sharing, the contingent factors help to explain why the intensity of information shared across companies differ. In the future, competitive pressures and uncertainty are likely to intensify. Therefore, companies may want to continue with their integration efforts by focusing on the determinants discussed in this study. However, at the same time, the possibility of opportunistic behavior by the exchange partner cannot be disregarded.

Process of burnout: structure, antecedents, and consequences

The major changes that have been witnessed in today's workplaces are challenging the mental well-being of employed people. Stress and burnout are considered to be modern epidemics, and their importance to physical health and work ability has been acknowledged world-wide. The aim of the thesis was to study the concept of burnout as a process proceeding from its antecedents, through the development of the syndrome, and to its outcomes. Several work-related factors considered antecedents of burnout were studied in different occupational groups. The syndrome of burnout is seen as consisting of three dimensions - exhaustion, cynicism and lack of professional efficacy - and different alternatives for the sequential development of these dimensions were tested. Furthermore, several indicators of the severely detrimental health and work ability outcomes of burnout were investigated in a longitudinal study design. The research questions were as follows. 1) Is burnout, as measured with the Maslach Burnout Inventory - General Survey (MBI-GS), a three-dimensional construct and how invariant is the factorial structure across occupations (Finnish) and national samples (Finnish, Swedish and Dutch)? How persistent is exhaustion over time? 2) What is the sequential process of burnout? Is it similar across occupations? How do work stressors relate to the process? 3) How does burnout relate to severe health consequences as well as temporary and chronic work disability according to hospitalization periods, sick-leave episodes and receiving disability pensions? The data were collected between 1986 and 2005. The population of the study consisted of respondents to a company-wide questionnaire survey carried out in 1996-1997 (N=9705, response rate 63%). The participants comprised 6025 blue-collar workers and 3680 white-collar workers. The majority were men (N=7494) and the average age was 43.7 years. In addition, a sample from the population had responded to a questionnaire survey in 1988, which was combined with the 1996 data to form panel data on 713 respondents. The register-based data were collected between 1986 and 2005 from 1) the company's occupational health services' records for a sample of respondents from the 1996 questionnaire survey (sick-leave data), 2) hospitalization records from the Hospital discharge register, and 3) disability pension records from the Finnish Centre for Pensions. These data were combined person by person with the 1996 questionnaire survey data with the help of personal identification numbers which were saved with the study numbers by the researchers. The results showed that burnout consists of three separate but correlating symptoms: exhaustion, cynicism and lack of professional efficacy. As a syndrome, burnout was strongly related to job stressors at work, and seemed to develop from exhaustion through cynicism to lack of professional efficacy in a similar manner among white-collar and blue-collar employees. The results also showed that exhaustion persisted even after eight years of follow-up but did not predict cynicism or lack of professional efficacy after that amount of time. Nor were job stressors longitudinally related to burnout. Longitudinal results were obtained for the severe health-related consequences of burnout. The investigated outcomes represented different phases of health deterioration ranging from sick-leaves and hospitalization periods to receiving work disability pensions. The results showed that burnout syndrome, and its elements of exhaustion and cynicism, were related to future mental and cardiovascular disorders as indicated by hospitalization periods. Burnout was also related to future sick-leave periods due to mental, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal disorders. Of the separate elements, exhaustion was related to the same three categories of disorder, cynicism to mental, musculoskeletal and digestive disorders, and lack of professional efficacy to mental and musculoskeletal disorders. Burnout also predicted receiving disability pensions due to mental and musculoskeletal disorders among initially healthy subjects. Exhaustion was related to receiving disability pensions even when self-reported chronic illness was taken into account. The results suggest that burnout is a multidimensional, chronic, work-related syndrome, which may have serious consequences for health and work ability.

Change detection and controlling forest information using multi-temporal Landsat TM imagery.

A method was developed for relative radiometric calibration of single multitemporal Landsat TM image, several multitemporal images covering each others, and several multitemporal images covering different geographic locations. The radiometricly calibrated difference images were used for detecting rapid changes on forest stands. The nonparametric Kernel method was applied for change detection. The accuracy of the change detection was estimated by inspecting the image analysis results in field. The change classification was applied for controlling the quality of the continuously updated forest stand information. The aim was to ensure that all the manmade changes and any forest damages were correctly updated including the attribute and stand delineation information. The image analysis results were compared with the registered treatments and the stand information base. The stands with discrepancies between these two information sources were recommended to be field inspected.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Forest governance and climate change adaptation : Case studies of four African countries

Africa is threatened by climate change. The adaptive capacity of local communities continues to be weakened by ineffective and inefficient livelihood strategies and inappropriate development interventions. One of the greatest challenges for climate change adaptation in Africa is related to the governance of natural resources used by vulnerable poor groups as assets for adaptation. Practical and good governance activities for adaptation in Africa is urgently and much needed to support adaptation actions, interventions and planning. The adaptation role of forests has not been as prominent in the international discourse and actions as their mitigation role. This study therefore focused on the forest as one of the natural resources used for adaptation. The general objective of this research was to assess the extent to which cases of current forest governance practices in four African countries Burkina Faso, The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ghana and Sudan are supportive to the adaptation of vulnerable societies and ecosystems to impacts of climate change. Qualitative and quantitative analyses from surveys, expert consultations and group discussions were used in analysing the case studies. The entire research was guided by three conceptual sets of thinking forest governance, climate change vulnerability and ecosystem services. Data for the research were collected from selected ongoing forestry activities and programmes. The study mainly dealt with forest management policies and practices that can improve the adaptation of forest ecosystems (Study I) and the adaptive capacity through the management of forest resources by vulnerable farmers (Studies II, III, IV and V). It was found that adaptation is not part of current forest policies, but, instead, policies contain elements of risk management practices, which are also relevant to the adaptation of forest ecosystems. These practices include, among others, the management of forest fires, forest genetic resources, non-timber resources and silvicultural practices. Better livelihood opportunities emerged as the priority for the farmers. These vulnerable farmers had different forms of forest management. They have a wide range of experience and practical knowledge relevant to ensure and achieve livelihood improvement alongside sustainable management and good governance of natural resources. The contributions of traded non-timber forest products to climate change adaptation appear limited for local communities, based on their distribution among the stakeholders in the market chain. Plantation (agro)forestry, if well implemented and managed by communities, has a high potential in reducing socio-ecological vulnerability by increasing the food production and restocking degraded forest lands. Integration of legal arrangements with continuous monitoring, evaluation and improvement may drive this activity to support short, medium and long term expectations related to adaptation processes. The study concludes that effective forest governance initiatives led by vulnerable poor groups represent one practical way to improve the adaptive capacities of socio-ecological systems against the impacts of climate change in Africa.