Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Stone Weathering in the Monastic Building Complex on Mountain of St Aaron in Petra, Jordan.

Since 1997 the Finnish Jabal Haroun Project (FJHP) has studied the ruins of the monastery and pilgrimage complex (Gr. oikos) of Aaron located on a plateau of the Mountain of Prophet Aaron, Jabal an-Nabi Harûn, ca. 5 km to the south-west of the UNESCO World Heritage site of Petra in Jordan. The state of conservation and the damaging processes affecting the stone structures of the site are studied in this M.A. thesis. The chapel was chosen as an example, as it represents the phasing and building materials of the entire site. The aim of this work is to act as a preliminary study with regards to the planning of long-term conservation at the site. The research is empirical in nature. The condition of the stones in the chapel walls was mapped using the Illustrated Glossary on Stone Deterioration, by the ICOMOS International Scientific Committee for Stone. This glossary combines several standards and systems of damage mapping used in the field. Climatic conditions (temperature and RH %) were monitored for one year (9/2005-8/2006) using a HOBO Microstation datalogger. The measurements were compared with contemporary measurements from the nearest weather station in Wadi Musa. Salts in the stones were studied by taking samples from the stone surfaces by scraping and with the “Paper Pulp”-method; with a poultice of wet cellulose fiber (Arbocel BC1000) and analyzing what main types of salts were to be found in the samples. The climatic conditions on the mountain were expected to be rapidly changing and to differ clearly from conditions in the neighboring areas. The rapid changes were confirmed, but the values did not differ as much as expected from those nearby: the 12 months monitored had average temperatures and were somewhat drier than average. Earlier research in the area has shown that the geological properties of the stone material influence its deterioration. The damage mapping showed clearly, that salts are also a major reason for stone weathering. The salt samples contained several salt combinations, whose behavior in the extremely unstable climatic conditions is difficult to predict. Detailed mapping and regular monitoring of especially the structures, that are going remain exposed, is recommended in this work.

Assessing organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems : Methodological evidence from studies in nuclear power plant maintenance organizations

Failures in industrial organizations dealing with hazardous technologies can have widespread consequences for the safety of the workers and the general population. Psychology can have a major role in contributing to the safe and reliable operation of these technologies. Most current models of safety management in complex sociotechnical systems such as nuclear power plant maintenance are either non-contextual or based on an overly-rational image of an organization. Thus, they fail to grasp either the actual requirements of the work or the socially-constructed nature of the work in question. The general aim of the present study is to develop and test a methodology for contextual assessment of organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems. This is done by demonstrating the findings that the application of the emerging methodology produces in the domain of maintenance of a nuclear power plant (NPP). The concepts of organizational culture and organizational core task (OCT) are operationalized and tested in the case studies. We argue that when the complexity of the work, technology and social environment is increased, the significance of the most implicit features of organizational culture as a means of coordinating the work and achieving safety and effectiveness of the activities also increases. For this reason a cultural perspective could provide additional insight into the problem of safety management. The present study aims to determine; (1) the elements of the organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems; (2) the demands the maintenance task sets for the organizational culture; (3) how the current organizational culture at the case organizations supports the perception and fulfilment of the demands of the maintenance work; (4) the similarities and differences between the maintenance cultures at the case organizations, and (5) the necessary assessment of the organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems. Three in-depth case studies were carried out at the maintenance units of three Nordic NPPs. The case studies employed an iterative and multimethod research strategy. The following methods were used: interviews, CULTURE-survey, seminars, document analysis and group work. Both cultural analysis and task modelling were carried out. The results indicate that organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems can be characterised according to three qualitatively different elements: structure, internal integration and conceptions. All three of these elements of culture as well as their interrelations have to be considered in organizational assessments or important aspects of the organizational dynamics will be overlooked. On the basis of OCT modelling, the maintenance core task was defined as balancing between three critical demands: anticipating the condition of the plant and conducting preventive maintenance accordingly, reacting to unexpected technical faults and monitoring and reflecting on the effects of maintenance actions and the condition of the plant. The results indicate that safety was highly valued at all three plants, and in that sense they all had strong safety cultures. In other respects the cultural features were quite different, and thus the culturally-accepted means of maintaining high safety also differed. The handicraft nature of maintenance work was emphasised as a source of identity at the NPPs. Overall, the importance of safety was taken for granted, but the cultural norms concerning the appropriate means to guarantee it were little reflected. A sense of control, personal responsibility and organizational changes emerged as challenging issues at all the plants. The study shows that in complex sociotechnical systems it is both necessary and possible to analyse the safety and effectiveness of the organizational culture. Safety in complex sociotechnical systems cannot be understood or managed without understanding the demands of the organizational core task and managing the dynamics between the three elements of the organizational culture.

Integrated semantic processing of complex pictures and spoken sentences - Evidence from event-related potentials

It has been suggested that semantic information processing is modularized according to the input form (e.g., visual, verbal, non-verbal sound). A great deal of research has concentrated on detecting a separate verbal module. Also, it has traditionally been assumed in linguistics that the meaning of a single clause is computed before integration to a wider context. Recent research has called these views into question. The present study explored whether it is reasonable to assume separate verbal and nonverbal semantic systems in the light of the evidence from event-related potentials (ERPs). The study also provided information on whether the context influences processing of a single clause before the local meaning is computed. The focus was on an ERP called N400. Its amplitude is assumed to reflect the effort required to integrate an item to the preceding context. For instance, if a word is anomalous in its context, it will elicit a larger N400. N400 has been observed in experiments using both verbal and nonverbal stimuli. Contents of a single sentence were not hypothesized to influence the N400 amplitude. Only the combined contents of the sentence and the picture were hypothesized to influence the N400. The subjects (n = 17) viewed pictures on a computer screen while hearing sentences through headphones. Their task was to judge the congruency of the picture and the sentence. There were four conditions: 1) the picture and the sentence were congruent and sensible, 2) the sentence and the picture were congruent, but the sentence ended anomalously, 3) the picture and the sentence were incongruent but sensible, 4) the picture and the sentence were incongruent and anomalous. Stimuli from the four conditions were presented in a semi-randomized sequence. Their electroencephalography was simultaneously recorded. ERPs were computed for the four conditions. The amplitude of the N400 effect was largest in the incongruent sentence-picture -pairs. The anomalously ending sentences did not elicit a larger N400 than the sensible sentences. The results suggest that there is no separate verbal semantic system, and that the meaning of a single clause is not processed independent of the context.

Nicotine Dependence and Smoking Behaviour : A genetic and epidemiological study

The worldwide health burden caused by the tobacco epidemic highlights the importance of study-ing determinants of smoking behaviour and key factors sustaining nicotine dependence. Despite vast-ranging preventive efforts, smoking remains one of the most deleterious health behaviours, and its genetic and environmental factors warrant continuous investigation. The heritability of smoking behaviour and nicotine dependence has been suggested to be relatively high. Earlier smoking behaviour, nicotine dependence, socio-economic position and demographic factors have all been shown to be associated with smoking cessation. This thesis aimed to examine various aspects of smoking behaviour and nicotine dependence from an epidemiological and genetic per-spective. Data for Studies I and IV were obtained from the Older Finnish Twin Cohort, a postal health sur-vey conducted in 1975, 1981 and 1990 on same-sexed pairs and in 1996-1997 on male-female adult pairs. The number of ever-smoking participants was 8941 in Study I and 3069 in Study IV. Data for Studies II and III came from the Family Study of Cigarette Smoking - Vulnerability to Nicotine Addiction. This study is linked to the Older Finnish Twin Cohort with new data collec-tion during 2001-2006 that focused on smoking twin pairs and their family members. The meas-ures included intensive telephone interviews, blood samples and additional postal questionnaires. The numbers of ever-smoking participants was 1370 in Study II and 529 in Study III. Study I examined whether a genetic component underlies smoking behaviour among Finnish adults. Genetic factors were important in the amount smoked and smoking cessation, with about half of the phenotypic differences explained by genetic variance. A novel finding was that genetic influences on amount smoked and smoking cessation were largely independent of genetic influ-ences on age at initiation. This result has implications for defining phenotypes in the search for genes underlying smoking behaviour. Furthermore, even if smoking initiation is postponed to a later age, potential vulnerability to subsequent nicotine dependence cannot be completely inhib-ited. Study II investigated the effect of genetic and environmental factors on nicotine dependence, as measured by the novel multidimensional Nicotine Dependence Syndrome Scale (NDSS). This scale was validated in the Finnish data. The NDSS correlated highly with other established nico-tine dependence scales (FTND and DSM-IV), suggesting that this new scale would be a feasible and valid measure for identifying nicotine-dependent smokers among the ever-smoking popula-tion. About one-third of the phenotypic variation in nicotine dependence in this sample was ex-plained by genetic influences. Study III aimed at identifying chromosomal regions harbouring genes that influence smoking be-haviour and nicotine dependence. Linkage analysis of family data revealed that for smoker and nicotine dependence phenotypes as well as for co-morbidity between nicotine dependence and alcohol use signals on specific chromosome regions (chromosomes 2q33, 5q12, 5q34 7q21, 7q31, 10q25, 11p15, 20p13) exist. Results further support the hypothesis that smoking behaviour phe-notypes have a genetic background. Study IV examined associations of smoking behaviour, socio-economic position and transition of marital status with smoking cessation. Indicators of socio-economic position were important pre-dictors of smoking cessation even when adjusted for previous smoking behaviour. Getting married was associated with an increased probability of cessation in men, a finding confirmed among dis-cordant twin pairs. Thus, having a partner appears to have a positive impact on smoking cessation. In conclusion, nicotine dependence and smoking behaviour demonstrate significant genetic liabil-ity, but also substantial environmental influences among Finnish adults. Smoking initiation should be prevented or at least postponed to a later age. Although genetic factors are important in nicotine dependence and smoking behaviour, societal actions still have a primary role in tobacco control and smoking prevalence. Future studies should examine the complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors in nicotine dependence.

Molecular basis of the kidney filtration barrier : Role of the nephrin protein complex

The kidney filtration barrier consists of fenestrated endothelial cell layer, glomerular basement membrane and slit diaphragm (SD), the specialized junction between glomerular viscelar epithelial cells (podocytes). Podocyte injury is associated with the development of proteinuria, and if not reversed the injury will lead to permanent deterioration of the glomerular filter. The early events are characterized by disruption of the integrity of the SD, but the molecular pathways involved are not fully understood. Congenital nephrotic syndrome of the Finnish type (CNF) is caused by mutations in NPHS1, the gene encoding the SD protein nephrin. Lack of nephrin results in loss of the SD and massive proteinuria beginning before birth. Furthermore, nephrin expression is decreased in acquired human kidney diseases including diabetic nephropathy. This highlights the importance of nephrin and consequently SD in regulating the kidney filtration function. However, the precise molecular mechanism of how nephrin is involved in the formation of the SD is unknown. This thesis work aimed at clarifying the role of nephrin and its interaction partners in the formation of the SD. The purpose was to identify novel proteins that associate with nephrin in order to define the essential molecular complex required for the establishment of the SD. The aim was also to decipher the role of novel nephrin interacting proteins in podocytes. Nephrin binds to nephrin-like proteins Neph1 and Neph2, and to adherens junction protein P-cadherin. These interactions have been suggested to play a role in the formation of the SD. In this thesis work, we identified densin as a novel interaction partner for nephrin. Densin was localized to the SD and it was shown to bind to adherens junction protein beta-catenin. Furthermore, densin was shown to behave in a similar fashion as adherens junction proteins in cell-cell contacts. These results indicate that densin may play a role in cell adhesion and, therefore, may contribute to the formation of the SD together with nephrin and adherens junction proteins. Nephrin was also shown to bind to Neph3, which has been previously localized to the SD. Neph3 and Neph1 were shown to induce cell adhesion alone, whereas nephrin needed to trans-interact with Neph1 or Neph3 from the opposite cell surface in order to make cell-cell contacts. This was associated with the decreased tyrosine phosphorylation of nephrin. These data extend the current knowledge of the molecular composition of the nephrin protein complex at the SD and also provide novel insights of how the SD may be formed. This thesis work also showed that densin was up-regulated in the podocytes of CNF patients. Neph3 was up-regulated in nephrin deficient mouse kidneys, which share similar podocyte alterations and lack of the SD as observed in CNF patients podocytes. These data suggest that densin and Neph3 may have a role in the formation of morphological alterations in podocytes detected in CNF patients. Furthermore, this thesis work showed that deletion of beta-catenin specifically from adult mouse podocytes protected the mice from the development of adriamycin-induced podocyte injury and proteinuria compared to wild-type mice. These results show that beta-catenin play a role in the adriamycin induced podocyte injury. Podocyte injury is a hallmark in many kidney diseases and the changes observed in the podocytes of CNF patient share characteristics with injured podocytes observed in chronic kidney diseases. Therefore, the results obtained in this thesis work suggest that densin, Neph3 and beta-catenin participate in the molecular pathways which result in morphological alterations commonly detected in injured podocytes in kidney diseases.

Late Transition Metal and Aluminum Complexes for the Polymerization of Ethene and Acrylates

Polyethene, polyacrylates and polymethyl acrylates are versatile materials that find wide variety of applications in several areas. Therefore, polymerization of ethene, acrylates and methacrylates has achieved a lot attention during past years. Numbers of metal catalysts have been introduced in order to control the polymerization and to produce tailored polymer structures. Herein an overview on the possible polymerization pathways for ethene, acrylates and methacrylates is presented. In this thesis iron(II) and cobalt(II) complexes bearing tri- and tetradentate nitrogen ligands were synthesized and studied in the polymerization of tertbutyl acrylate (tBA) and methyl methacrylate (MMA). Complexes are activated with methylaluminoxane (MAO) before they form active combinations for polymerization reactions. The effect of reaction conditions, i.e. monomer concentration, reaction time, temperature, MAO to metal ratio, on activity and polymer properties were investigated. The described polymerization system enables mild reaction conditions, the possibility to tailor molar mass of the produced polymers and provides good control over the polymerization. Moreover, the polymerization of MMA in the presence of iron(II) complex with tetradentate nitrogen ligands under conditions of atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) was studied. Several manganese(II) complexes were studied in the ethene polymerization with combinatorial methods and new active catalysts were found. These complexes were also studied in acrylate and methacrylate polymerizations after MAO activation and converted into the corresponding alkyl (methyl or benzyl) derivatives. Combinatorial methods were introduced to discover aluminum alkyl complexes for the polymerization of acrylates and methacrylates. Various combinations of aluminum alkyls and ligands, including phosphines, salicylaldimines and nitrogen donor ligands, were prepared in situ and utilized to initiate the polymerization of tBA. Phosphine ligands were found to be the most active and the polymerization MMA was studied with these active combinations. In addition, a plausible polymerization mechanism for MMA based on ESI-MS, 1H and 13C NMR is proposed.

Studies on metal complex formation of environmentally friendly aminopolycarboxylate chelating agents

Aminopolykarboksyylaatteja, kuten etyleenidiamiinitetraetikkahappoa (EDTA), on käytetty useiden vuosikymmenien ajan erinomaisen metalli-ionien sitomiskyvyn vuoksi kelatointiaineena lukuisissa sovelluksissa sekä analytiikassa että monilla teollisisuuden aloilla. Näiden yhdisteiden biohajoamattomuus on kuitenkin herättänyt huolta viime aikoina, sillä niiden on havaittu olevan hyvin pysyviä luonnossa. Tämä työ on osa laajempaa tutkimushanketta, jossa on tavoitteena löytää korvaavia kelatointiaineita EDTA:lle. Tutkimuksen aiheena on kuuden kelatointiaineen metalli-ionien sitomiskyvyn kartoitus. EDTA:a paremmin luonnossa hajoavina nämä ovat ympäristöystävällisiä ehdokkaita korvaaviksi kelatointiaineiksi useisiin sovelluksiin. Työssä tutkittiin niiden kompleksinmuodostusta useiden metalli-ionien kanssa potentiometrisella titrauksella. Metalli-ionivalikoima vaihteli hieman kelatointiaineesta riippuen sisältäen magnesium-, kalsium-, mangaani-, rauta-, kupari-, sinkki-, kadmium-, elohopea-, lyijy- ja lantaani-ionit. Tutkittavat metallit oli valittu tähtäimessä olevien sovellusten, synteesissä ilmenneiden ongelmien tai ympäristönäkökohtien perusteella. Tulokset osoittavat näiden yhdisteiden metallinsitomiskyvyn olevan jonkin verran heikompi kuin EDTA:lla, mutta kuitenkin riittävän useisiin sovelluksiin kuten sellunvalkaisuprosessiin. Myrkyllisten raskasmetallien, kadmiumin, elohopen ja lyijyn kohdalla EDTA:a heikompi sitoutuminen on eduksikin, koska se yhdistettynä parempaan biohajoavuuteen saattaa alentaa tutkittujen yhdisteiden kykyä mobilisoida kyseisiä metalleja sedimenteistä. Useimmilla tutkituista yhdisteistä on ympäristönäkökulmasta etuna myös EDTA:a pienempi typpipitoisuus.

Luonnollisten lukujen joukon määriteltävyys funktioalgebroissa

Let X be a topological space and K the real algebra of the reals, the complex numbers, the quaternions, or the octonions. The functions form X to K form an algebra T(X,K) with pointwise addition and multiplication. We study first-order definability of the constant function set N' corresponding to the set of the naturals in certain subalgebras of T(X,K). In the vocabulary the symbols Constant, +, *, 0', and 1' are used, where Constant denotes the predicate defining the constants, and 0' and 1' denote the constant functions with values 0 and 1 respectively. The most important result is the following. Let X be a topological space, K the real algebra of the reals, the compelex numbers, the quaternions, or the octonions, and R a subalgebra of the algebra of all functions from X to K containing all constants. Then N' is definable in , if at least one of the following conditions is true. (1) The algebra R is a subalgebra of the algebra of all continuous functions containing a piecewise open mapping from X to K. (2) The space X is sigma-compact, and R is a subalgebra of the algebra of all continuous functions containing a function whose range contains a nonempty open set of K. (3) The algebra K is the set of reals or the complex numbers, and R contains a piecewise open mapping from X to K and does not contain an everywhere unbounded function. (4) The algebra R contains a piecewise open mapping from X to the set of the reals and function whose range contains a nonempty open subset of K. Furthermore R does not contain an everywhere unbounded function.

Jumping numbers of a simple complete ideal in a two-dimensional regular local ring

The multiplier ideals of an ideal in a regular local ring form a family of ideals parametrized by non-negative rational numbers. As the rational number increases the corresponding multiplier ideal remains unchanged until at some point it gets strictly smaller. A rational number where this kind of diminishing occurs is called a jumping number of the ideal. In this manuscript we shall give an explicit formula for the jumping numbers of a simple complete ideal in a two dimensional regular local ring. In particular, we obtain a formula for the jumping numbers of an analytically irreducible plane curve. We then show that the jumping numbers determine the equisingularity class of the curve.