EU:n maataloustuotteiden tuonti Mercosurista

Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan kansainvälisen kaupan teorian lähtökohdista Euroopan unionin maataloustuotteiden tuontia Mercosur-maista. Tarkastelun kohteeksi valittiin seitsemän maataloustuotetta: naudanliha, kaakao, kahvi, appelsiinimehu, siipikarjanliha, soija ja vehnä. Tutkimusongelmana oli tuonti- ja vientikysyntöjen estimointi näille tuotteille. Tutkimuksessa tehtiin myös simulaatioita, joilla pyrittiin kuvaamaan kaupan vapautumisen vaikutuksia. Lisäksi pyrittiin vastaamaan kysymykseen: millä tavoin kaupan vapautuminen olisi vaikuttanut EU:n maataloustuotteiden kokonaistuontiin ja tuontiin Mercosur-maista? Tutkimuksen tutkimusmenetelmänä oli ekonometrinen estimointi. Ensin estimoitiin EU:n tuotteen tuontikysyntä eli kokonaistuonti, josta johdettiin kysyntä EU:n tuonnille eri Mercosur-maista eli vientikysynnät. Tuotteiden tuontikysynnöille estimoitiin tulo- ja hintajoustot ja vientikysynnöille joustot kokonaistuonnin ja hinnan suhteen. EU:n tuontikysyntää selittäviksi tekijöiksi valittiin EU:n tulotaso ja tuotteen reaalihinta. Muutamiin tuontikysyntä -malleihin lisättiin vielä niin sanottu dummy-muuttuja kuvaamaan suuria tuonnin vaihteluita. Kaikille seitsemälle tuotteelle estimoitiin myös vientikysyntämallit eli estimoitiin EU:n tietyn tuotteen tuontia yhdestä Mercosur-maasta kerrallaan. Vientikysyntää selittäviksi tekijöiksi valittiin EU:n kyseisen tuotteen kokonaistuonti ja kyseisen tuotteen suhteellinen hinta. Log-lineaariset mallit estimoitiin pienimmän neliösumman menetelmällä ja malleissa, joissa esiintyi autokorrelaatiota hyödynnettiin Cochrane-Orcutt -tekniikkaa. Tutkimuksessa tehtiin tuonti- ja vientikysyntöjen regressiokertoimien estimaateilla historiallisia (ex post) simulaatioita vuosille 1988-2006. Simulaatioiden avulla pyrittiin saamaan selville, mitä vaikutuksia kaupanvapautumisella ja EU:n ja Mercosurin välisellä vapaakauppaliitolla olisi ollut EU:n tuonti- ja vientikysyntöihin kyseisten tuotteiden kohdalla ceteris paribus. Estimoitujen EU:n tuontikysyntä -mallien hintajoustot vaihtelivat -0,69 ja 1,97 välillä, mistä voidaan päätellä, että kaupan vapauttaminen tai lähinnä tariffien poistaminen ei vaikuttaisi kovin merkittävästi EU:n kokonaistuonnin määrään. Tuontikysyntämallien tulojoustot vaihtelivat 0,77 ja 5,98 välillä. Tuontikysynnät olivat tulojen suhteen aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin verrattuna huomattavasti joustavampia. Tutkimuksessa estimoitujen EU:n vientikysyntä -mallien joustot kokonaistuonnin suhteen vaihtelivat -6,31 ja 4,69 välillä ja hintajoustot vaihtelivat -14,51 ja 0,87 välillä. Vientikysynnät kokonaistuonnin että hinnan suhteen olivat joustavampia aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin verrattuna. Tuontikysyntöjen simulaatiot osoittivat, että aikavälillä 1988-2006 EU:n ja Mercosurin välisen vapaakauppaliiton tapauksessa EU:n tuonti olisi ollut suurempaa kuin perusskenaariossa ja vapaankaupan tapauksessa tuonti olisi ollut vieläkin suurempaa alhaisemmasta hinnasta johtuen. Vientikysynnöissä perusskenaarion ja vapaakauppa-skenaarion välille ei syntynyt useiden tuotteiden kohdalla kovinkaan suurta eroa tuonnin määrään, mutta EU:n ja Mercosurin välinen vapaakauppaliitto olisi tämän tutkimuksen mukaan lisännyt EU:n maataloustuotteiden tuontia Mercosur-maista aikavälillä 1988-2006. Avainsanat: tuontikysyntä, vientikysyntä, kansainvälisen kaupan teoria, ekonometrinen estimointi

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Technology-related peso problems in stock returns

Although empirical evidence suggests the contrary, many asset pricing models assume stock returns to be symmetrically distributed. In this paper it is argued that the occurrence of negative jumps in a firm's future earnings and, consequently, in its stock price, is positively related to the level of network externalities in the firm's product market. If the ex post frequency of these negative jumps in a sample does not equal the ex ante assessed probability of occurrence, the sample is subject to a peso problem. The hypothesis is tested for by regressing the skewness coefficient of a firm’s realised stock return distribution on the firm’s R&D intensity, i.e. the ratio of the firm’s research and development expenditure to its net sales. The empirical results support the technology-related peso problem hypothesis. In samples subject to such a peso problem, the returns are biased up and the variance is biased down.

Unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility: An explanation to the low and time-varying predictive power of implied volatility

The low predictive power of implied volatility in forecasting the subsequently realized volatility is a well-documented empirical puzzle. As suggested by e.g. Feinstein (1989), Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), and Bates (1997), we test whether unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility could explain this phenomenon. Our findings show that expectations of infrequently occurring jumps in volatility are indeed priced in implied volatility. This has two important consequences. First, implied volatility is actually expected to exceed realized volatility over long periods of time only to be greatly less than realized volatility during infrequently occurring periods of very high volatility. Second, the slope coefficient in the classic forecasting regression of realized volatility on implied volatility is very sensitive to the discrepancy between ex ante expected and ex post realized jump frequencies. If the in-sample frequency of positive volatility jumps is lower than ex ante assessed by the market, the classic regression test tends to reject the hypothesis of informational efficiency even if markets are informationally effective.

Volatility Smile Dynamics in Scenario Analysis

The objective of this paper is to suggest a method that accounts for the impact of the volatility smile dynamics when performing scenario analysis for a portfolio consisting of vanilla options. As the volatility smile is documented to change at least with the level of implied at-the-money volatility, a suitable model is here included in the calculation process of the simulated market scenarios. By constructing simple portfolios of index options and comparing the ex ante risk exposure measured using different pricing methods to realized market values, ex post, the improvements of the incorporation of the model are monitored. The analyzed examples in the study generate results that statistically support that the most accurate scenarios are those calculated using the model accounting for the dynamics of the smile. Thus, we show that the differences emanating from the volatility smile are apparent and should be accounted for and that the methodology presented herein is one suitable alternative for doing so.

Kaukainen rakkaus : Saavuttamattomuuden semantiikka Kaija Saariahon oopperassa

L Amour de loin: The semantics of the unattainable in Kaija Saariaho s opera Kaija Saariaho (born 1952) is one of the most internationally successful Finnish composers there has ever been. Her first opera L Amour de loin (Love from afar, 1999-2000) has been staged all over the world and has won a number of important prizes. The libretto written for L Amour de loin by Amin Malouf (born 1949) sets the work firmly in the culture of courtly love and the troubadours, which flourished in Occitania in the South of France during the Middle Ages. The male lead in the opera is the troubadour Jaufré Rudel, who lived in the twelfth century and is known to have taken part in the Second Crusade in 1147-1148. This doctoral thesis L Amour de loin: The semantics of the unattainable in Kaija Saariaho s opera, which comes within the field of musicology and opera research, examines the dimensions of meaning contained in Kaija Saariaho s opera L Amour de loin. This hermeneutic-semiotic study is the first doctoral thesis dealing with Saariaho to be completed at the University of Helsinki. It is also the first thesis-level study of Saariaho s opera to be completed anywhere in the world. The study focuses on the libretto and music of the opera, that is to say the dramatic text (L Amour de loin 1980), and examines on the one hand the dimensions of meaning produced by the dramatic text and on the other, the way in which they fix the dramatic text in a historical and cultural context. Thus the study helps to answer questions about the dimensions of meaning contained in the dramatic text of the opera and how they can be interpreted. The most important procedural viewpoint is Lawrence Kramer s hermeneutic window (1990), supplemented by Raymond Monelle s semiotic theory of musical topics (2000, 2006) and the philosophical concept of Emmanuel Levinas (1996, 2002) in which the latter acts as an instrument for semantic interpretation to build up an analysis. The analytical section of the study is built around the three characters in the opera, Jaufré Rudel, Clémence the Countess of Tripoli, and the Pilgrim. The study shows that the music of Saariaho, who belongs to the third generation of Finnish modernists, has become distanced from the post-serial aesthetic towards a more diatonic form of expression. There is diatonicity, for instance, in the sonorous individuality of the male lead, which is based on the actual melodies of the historical Jaufré Rudel. The use of outside material in this context is exceptional in the work of Saariaho. At the same time, Saariaho s opera contains a wealth of expressive devices she has used in her earlier work. It became apparent during the study that, as a piece of music, L Amour de loin is a many layered and multi-dimensional work that does not unambiguously represent any single stylistic trend or aesthetic. Despite the composer s post-serial background and its abrasive relationship with opera, L Amour de loin is firmly attached to the tradition of western opera. The analysis based on the theory of musical topics that was carried out in the study, shows that topics referring to death and resurrection, used in opera since the seventeenth century, appear in L Amour de loin. The troubadour topic, mainly identified with the harp, also emerges in the work. The study also shows that the work is firmly attached to the tradition of western opera in other aspects, too, such as the travesti or trouser role played by the Pilgrim, and the idea of deus ex machina derived from Ancient Greek theatre. The study shows that the concept of love based on the medieval practices of courtly love, and the associated longing for another defined by almost 1,000 years of western culture, are both manifested in the semantics of Kaija Saariaho s opera which takes its place in the contemporary music genre.

A sequential analysis of "nú" and "núna" in Icelandic conversation

This thesis is an empirical study of how two words in Icelandic, "nú" and "núna", are used in contemporary Icelandic conversation. My aims in this study are, first, to explain the differences between the temporal functions of "nú" and "núna", and, second, to describe the non-temporal functions of "nú". In the analysis, a focus is placed on comparing the sequential placement of the two words, on their syntactical distribution, and on their prosodic realization. The empirical data comprise 14 hours and 11 minutes of naturally occurring conversation recorded between 1996 and 2003. The selected conversations represent a wide range of interactional contexts including informal dinner parties, institutional and non-institutional telephone conversations, radio programs for teenagers, phone-in programs, and, finally, a political debate on television. The theoretical and methodological framework is interactional linguistics, which can be described as linguistically oriented conversation analysis (CA). A comparison of "nú" and "núna" shows that the two words have different syntactic distributions. "Nú" has a clear tendency to occur in the front field, before the finite verb, while "núna" typically occurs in the end field, after the object. It is argued that this syntactic difference reflects a functional difference between "nú" and "núna". A sequential analysis of "núna" shows that the word refers to an unspecified period of time which includes the utterance time as well as some time in the past and in the future. This temporal relation is referred to as reference time. "Nú", by contrast, is mainly used in three different environments: a) in temporal comparisons, 2) in transitions, and 3) when the speaker is taking an affective stance. The non-temporal functions of "nú" are divided into three categories: a) "nú" as a tone particle, 2) "nú" as an utterance particle, and 3) "nú" as a dialogue particle. "Nú" as a tone particle is syntactically integrated and can occur in two syntactic positions: pre-verbally and post-verbally. I argue that these instances are employed in utterances in which a speaker is foregrounding information or marking it as particularly important. The study shows that, although these instances are typically prosodically non-prominent and unstressed, they are in some cases delivered with stress and with a higher pitch than the surrounding talk. "Nú" as an utterance particle occurs turn-initially and is syntactically non-integrated. By using "nú", speakers show continuity between turns and link new turns to prior ones. These instances initiate either continuations by the same speaker or new turns after speaker shifts. "Nú" as a dialogue particle occurs as a turn of its own. The study shows that these instances register informings in prior turns as unexpected or as a departure from the normal state of affairs. "Nú" as a dialogue particle is often delivered with a prolonged vowel and a recognizable intonation contour. A comparative sequential and prosodic analysis shows that in these cases there is a correlation between the function of "nú" and the intonation contour by which it is delivered. Finally, I argue that despite the many functions of "nú", all the instances can be said to have a common denominator, which is to display attention towards the present moment and the utterances which are produced prior or after the production of "nú". Instead of anchoring the utterances in external time or reference time, these instances position the utterance in discourse internal time, or discourse time.

Post-industrial Intervention : An Activity-Theoretical Expedition Tracing the Proximal Development of Forms of Conducting Interventions

Ei saatavilla

Modern diagnosis of Epstein-Barr virus infections and post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease

Infection by Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) occurs in approximately 95% of the world s population. EBV was the first human virus implicated in oncogenesis. Characteristic for EBV primary infection are detectable IgM and IgG antibodies against viral capsid antigen (VCA). During convalescence the VCA IgM disappears while the VCA IgG persists for life. Reactivations of EBV occur both among immunocompromised and immunocompetent individuals. In serological diagnosis, measurement of avidity of VCA IgG separates primary from secondary infections. However, in serodiagnosis of mononucleosis it is quite common to encounter, paradoxically, VCA IgM together with high-avidity VCA IgG, indicating past immunity. We determined the etiology of this phenomenon and found that, among patients with cytomegalovirus (CMV) primary infection a large proportion (23%) showed antibody profiles of EBV reactivation. In contrast, EBV primary infection did not appear to induce immunoreactivation of CMV. EBV-associated post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (PTLD) is a life threatening complication of allogeneic stem cell or solid organ transplantation. PTLD may present with a diverse spectrum of clinical symptoms and signs. Due to rapidity of PTLD progression especially after stem cell transplantation, the diagnosis must be obtained quickly. Pending timely detection, the evolution of the fatal disease may be halted by reduction of immunosuppression. A promising new PTLD treatment (also in Finland) is based on anti-CD-20 monoclonal antibodies. Diagnosis of PTLD has been demanding because of immunosuppression, blood transfusions and the latent nature of the virus. We set up in 1999 to our knowledge first in Finland for any microbial pathogen a real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) for detection of EBV DNA in blood serum/plasma. In addition, we set up an in situ hybridisation assay for EBV RNA in tissue sections. In collaboration with a group of haematologists at Helsinki University Central Hospital we retrospectively determined the incidence of PTLD among 257 allogenic stem cell transplantations (SCT) performed during 1994-1999. Post-mortem analysis revealed 18 cases of PTLD. From a subset of PTLD cases (12/18) and a series of corresponding controls (36), consecutive samples of serum were studied by the new EBV-qPCR. All the PTLD patients were positive for EBV-DNA with progressively rising copy numbers. In most PTLD patients EBV DNA became detectable within 70 days of SCT. Of note, the appearance of EBV DNA preceded the PTLD symptoms (fever, lymphadenopathy, atypical lymphocytes). Among the SCT controls, EBV DNA occurred only sporadically, and the EBV-DNA levels remained relatively low. We concluded that EBV qPCR is a highly sensitive (100%) and specific (96%) new diagnostic approach. We also looked for and found risk factors for the development of PTLD. Together with a liver transplantation group at the Transplantation and Liver Surgery Clinic we wanted to clarify how often and how severely do EBV infections occur after liver transplantation. We studied by the EBV qPCR 1284 plasma samples obtained from 105 adult liver transplant recipients. EBV DNA was detected in 14 patients (13%) during the first 12 months. The peak viral loads of 13 asymptomatic patients were relatively low (<6600/ml), and EBV DNA subsided quickly from circulation. Fatal PTLD was diagnosed in one patient. Finally, we wanted to determine the number and clinical significance of EBV infections of various types occurring among a large, retrospective, nonselected cohort of allogenic SCT recipients. We analysed by EBV qPCR 5479 serum samples of 406 SCT recipients obtained during 1988-1999. EBV DNA was seen in 57 (14%) patients, of whom 22 (5%) showed progressively rising and ultimately high levels of EBV DNA (median 54 million /ml). Among the SCT survivors, EBV DNA was transiently detectable in 19 (5%) asymptomatic patients. Thereby, low-level EBV-DNA positivity in serum occurs relatively often after SCT and may subside without specific treatment. However, high molecular copy numbers (>50 000) are diagnostic for life-threatening EBV infection. We furthermore developed a mathematical algorithm for the prediction of development of life-threatening EBV infection.

New molecular strategies for prevention of fibroproliferative vascular disease : An experimental approach to restenosis

Vascular intimal hyperplasia is a major complication following angioplasty. The hallmark feature of this disorder is accumulation of dedifferentiated smooth muscle cells (SMCs) to the luminal side of the injured artery, cellular proliferation, migration, and synthesis of extracellular matrix. This finally results in intimal hyperplasia, which is currently considered an untreatable condition. According to current knowledge, a major part of neointimal cells derive from circulating precursor cells. This has outdated the traditional in vitro cell culture methods of studying neointimal cell migration and proliferation using cultured medial SMCs. Somatostatin and some of its analogs with different selectivity for the five somatostatin receptors (sst1 through sst5) have been shown to have vasculoprotective properties in animal studies. However, clinical trials using analogs selective for sst2/sst3/sst5 to prevent restenosis after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) have failed to show any major benefits. Sirolimus is a cell cycle inhibitor that has been suggested to act synergistically with the protein-tyrosine kinase inhibitor imatinib to inhibit intimal hyperplasia in rat already at well-tolerated submaximal oral doses. The mechanisms behind this synergy and its long-term efficacy are not known. The aim of this study was to set up an ex vivo vascular explant culture model to measure neointimal cell activity without excluding the participation of circulating progenitor cells. Furthermore, two novel potential vasculoprotective treatment strategies were evaluated in detail in rat models of intimal hyperplasia and in the ex vivo explant model: sst1/sst4-selective somatostatin receptor analogs and combination treatment with sirolimus and imatinib. This study shows how whole vessel explants can be used to study the kinetics of neointimal cells and their progenitors, and to evaluate the anti-migratory and anti-proliferative properties of potential vasculoprotective compounds. It also shows how the influx of neointimal progenitor cells occurs already during the first days after vascular injury, how the contribution of cell migration is more important in the injury response than cell proliferation, and how the adventitia actively contribute in vascular repair. The vasculoprotective effect of somatostatin is mediated preferentially through sst4, and through inhibition of cell migration rather than of proliferation, which may explain why sst2/sst3/sst5-selective analogs have failed in clinical trials. Furthermore, a brief early oral treatment with the combination of sirolimus and imatinib at submaximal doses results in long-term synergistic suppression of intimal hyperplasia. The synergy is a result of inhibition of post-operative thrombocytosis and leukocytosis, inhibition of neointimal cell migration to the injury-site, and maintenance of cell integrity by inhibition of apoptosis and SMC dedifferentiation. In conclusion, the influx of progenitor cells already during the first days after injury and the high neointimal cell migratory activity underlines the importance of early therapeutic intervention with anti-migratory compounds to prevent neointimal hyperplasia. Sst4-selective analogs and the combination therapy with sirolimus and imatinib represent potential targets for the development of such vasculoprotective therapies.

Information, risk and trust in the food chain : Ex-ante valuation of consumer willingness to pay for beef quality information using the contingent valuation method

The safety of food has become an increasingly interesting issue to consumers and the media. It has also become a source of concern, as the amount of information on the risks related to food safety continues to expand. Today, risk and safety are permanent elements within the concept of food quality. Safety, in particular, is the attribute that consumers find very difficult to assess. The literature in this study consists of three main themes: traceability; consumer behaviour related to both quality and safety issues and perception of risk; and valuation methods. The empirical scope of the study was restricted to beef, because the beef labelling system enables reliable tracing of the origin of beef, as well as attributes related to safety, environmental friendliness and animal welfare. The purpose of this study was to examine what kind of information flows are required to ensure quality and safety in the food chain for beef, and who should produce that information. Studying the willingness to pay of consumers makes it possible to determine whether the consumers consider the quantity of information available on the safety and quality of beef sufficient. One of the main findings of this study was that the majority of Finnish consumers (73%) regard increased quality information as beneficial. These benefits were assessed using the contingent valuation method. The results showed that those who were willing to pay for increased information on the quality and safety of beef would accept an average price increase of 24% per kilogram. The results showed that certain risk factors impact consumer willingness to pay. If the respondents considered genetic modification of food or foodborne zoonotic diseases as harmful or extremely harmful risk factors in food, they were more likely to be willing to pay for quality information. The results produced by the models thus confirmed the premise that certain food-related risks affect willingness to pay for beef quality information. The results also showed that safety-related quality cues are significant to the consumers. In the first place, the consumers would like to receive information on the control of zoonotic diseases that are contagious to humans. Similarly, other process-control related information ranked high among the top responses. Information on any potential genetic modification was also considered important, even though genetic modification was not regarded as a high risk factor.

Small State Cultures of Consensus : State Traditions and Consensus-Seeking in the Neo-Corporatist and Neutrality Policies in Post-1945 Austria and Finland

Austria and Finland are persistently referred to as the “success stories” of post-1945 European history. Notwithstanding their different points of departure, in the course of the Cold War both countries portrayed themselves as small and neutral border-states in the world dictated by superpower politics. By the 1970s, both countries frequently ranked at the top end in various international classifications regarding economic development and well-being in society. This trend continues today. The study takes under scrutiny the concept of consensus which figures centrally in the two national narratives of post-1945 success. Given that the two domestic contexts as such only share few direct links with one another and are more obviously different than similar in terms of their geographical location, historical experiences and politico-cultural traditions, the analogies and variations in the anatomies of the post-1945 “cultures of consensus” provide an interesting topic for a historical comparative and cross-national examination. The main research question concerns the identification and analysis of the conceptual and procedural convergence points of the concepts of the state and consensus. The thesis is divided into six main chapters. After the introduction, the second chapter presents the theoretical framework in more detail by focusing on the key concepts of the study – the state and consensus. Chapter two also introduces the comparative historical and cross-national research angles. Chapter three grounds the key concepts of the state and consensus in the historical contexts of Austria and Finland by discussing the state, the nation and democracy in a longer term comparative perspective. The fourth and fifth chapter present case studies on the two policy fields, the “pillars”, upon which the post-1945 Austrian and Finnish cultures of consensus are argued to have rested. Chapter four deals with neo-corporatist features in the economic policy making and chapter five discusses the building up of domestic consensus regarding the key concepts of neutrality policies in the 1950s and 1960s. The study concludes that it was not consensus as such but the strikingly intense preoccupation with the theme of domestic consensus that cross-cut, in a curiously analogous manner, the policy-making processes studied. The main challenge for the post-1945 architects of Austrian and Finnish cultures of consensus was to find strategies and concepts for consensus-building which would be compatible with the principles of democracy. Discussed at the level of procedures, the most important finding of the study concerns the triangular mechanism of coordination, consultation and cooperation that set into motion and facilitated a new type of search for consensus in both post-war societies. In this triangle, the agency of the state was central, though in varying ways. The new conceptions concerning a small state’s position in the Cold War world also prompted cross-nationally perceivable willingness to reconsider inherited concepts and procedures of the state and the nation. At the same time, the ways of understanding the role of the state and its relation to society remained profoundly different in Austria and Finland and this basic difference was in many ways reflected in the concepts and procedures deployed in the search for consensus and management of domestic conflicts. For more detailed information, please consult the author.

Elite Bargaining and the Evolution of Centre-Periphery Relations in Post-Soviet Russia : A Comparative Analysis

This work is concerned with presenting a modified theoretical approach to the study of centre-periphery relations in the Russian Federation. In the widely accepted scientific discourse, the Russian federal system under the Yeltsin Administration (1991-2000) was asymmetrical; largely owing to the varying amount of structural autonomy distributed among the federation s 89 constituent units. While providing an improved understanding as to which political and socio-economic structures contributed to federal asymmetry, it is felt that associated large N-studies have underemphasised the role played by actor agency in re-shaping Russian federal institutions. It is the main task of this thesis to reintroduce /re-emphasise the importance of actor agency as a major contributing element of institutional change in the Russian federal system. By focusing on the strategic agency of regional elites simultaneously within regional and federal contexts, the thesis adopts the position that political, ethnic and socio-economic structural factors alone cannot fully determine the extent to which regional leaders were successful in their pursuit of economic and political pay-offs from the institutionally weakened federal centre. Furthermore, this work hypothesises that under conditions of federal institutional uncertainty, it is the ability of regional leaders to simultaneously interpret various mutable structural conditions then translate them into plausible strategies which accounts for the regions ability to extract variable amounts of economic and political pay-offs from the Russian federal system. The thesis finds that while the hypothesis is accurate in its theoretical assumptions, several key conclusions provide paths for further inquiry posed by the initial research question. First, without reliable information or stable institutions to guide their actions, both regional and federal elites were forced into ad-hoc decision-making in order to maintain their core strategic focus: political survival. Second, instead of attributing asymmetry to either actor agency or structural factors exclusively, the empirical data shows that both agency and structures interact symbiotically in the strategic formulation process, thus accounting for the sub-optimal nature of several of the actions taken in the adopted cases. Third, as actor agency and structural factors mutate over time, so, too do the perceived payoffs from elite competition. In the case of the Russian federal system, the stronger the federal centre became, the less likely it was that regional leaders could extract the high degree of economic and political pay-offs that they clamoured for earlier in the Yeltsin period. Finally, traditional approaches to the study of federal systems which focus on institutions as measures of federalism are not fully applicable in the Russian case precisely because the institutions themselves were a secondary point of contention between competing elites. Institutional equilibriums between the regions and Moscow were struck only when highly personalised elite preferences were satisfied. Therefore the Russian federal system is the product of short-term, institutional solutions suited to elite survival strategies developed under conditions of economic, political and social uncertainty.