The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy under a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime

This licentiate's thesis analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate regime, assuming that the government spends exclusively on domestically produced goods. The motivation for this research comes from the observation that the literature on the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) has focused almost exclusively on two-country global models and the analyses of the effects of fiscal policy on small economies are almost completely ignored. This thesis aims at filling in the gap in the NOEM literature and illustrates how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on the specification of preferences. The research method is to present two theoretical model that are extensions to the model contained in the Appendix to Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). The first model analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy, making use of a model that exploits the idea of modelling private and government consumption as substitutes in private utility. The model offers intuitive predictions on how the effects of fiscal policy depend on the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The findings illustrate that the higher the substitutability between private and government consumption, (i) the bigger is the crowding out effect on private consumption (ii) and the smaller is the positive effect on output. The welfare analysis shows that the less fiscal policy decreases welfare the higher is the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The second model of this thesis studies how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy depend on the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. This model reveals that this elasticity a key variable to explain the exchange rate, current account and output response to a permanent rise in government spending. Finally, the model demonstrates that temporary changes in government spending are an effective stabilization tool when used wisely and timely in response to undesired fluctuations in output. Undesired fluctuations in output can be perfectly offset by an opposite change in government spending without causing any side-effects.

Foreign Capital and Finland : Central government's first period of reliance on international financial markets, 1862-1938

The main objective of the study is to evaluate the Finnish central government s foreign borrowing between the years 1862 and 1938. Most of this period was characterised by deep capital market integration that bears resemblance to the liberal world financial order at the turn of the millennium. The main aim is to analyse the credit risk associated with the state and its determination by evaluating the world financial market centres perception of Finland. By doing this, the study is also expected to provide an additional dimension to Finland s political and economic history by incorporating into the research the assessments of international capital markets regarding Finland during a period that witnessed profound political and economic changes in Finnish society. The evaluation of the credit risk mainly relies on exchange-rate risk free time series of the state s foreign bonds. They have been collected from quotations in the stock exchanges in Helsinki, Hamburg, Paris and London. In addition, it investigates Finland s exposure to short-term debt and Moody s credit ratings assigned to Finland. The study emphasises the importance of the political risk. It suggests that the hey-day of the state s reliance on foreign capital markets took place during last few decades of the 19th century when Finland enjoyed a wide autonomy in the Russian Empire and prudently managed its economy, highlighted in Finland s adherence to the international gold standard. Political confrontations in Finland and, in particular, in Russia and the turbulence of the world financial system prevented the return of this beneficial position again. Through its issuance of foreign bonds the state was able to import substantial amounts of foreign capital, which was sorely needed to foster economic development in Finland. Moreover, the study argues that the state s presence in the western capital markets not only had economic benefits, but it also increased the international awareness of Finland s distinct and separate status in the Russian Empire and later underlined its position as an independent republic.

Studies on the international effects of real shocks

This doctoral thesis addresses the macroeconomic effects of real shocks in open economies in flexible exchange rate regimes. The first study of this thesis analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the `pure waste' case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. The second study of this thesis analyses the question of how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on optimal intertemporal behaviour. The key result is that the effects of fiscal policy depend on the size of the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. In particular, the sign of the current account response to fiscal policy depends on the interplay between the intertemporal elasticity of aggregate consumption and the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. The third study analyses the consequences of productive government spending on the international transmission of fiscal policy. A standard result in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature is that a fiscal shock depreciates the exchange rate. I demonstrate that the response of the exchange rate depends on the productivity of government spending. If productivity is sufficiently high, a fiscal shock appreciates the exchange rate. It is also shown that the introduction of productive government spending increases both domestic and foreign welfare, when compared with the case where government spending is wasted. The fourth study analyses the question of how the international transmission of technology shocks depends on the specification of nominal rigidities. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that a positive technology shock leads to a temporary decline in employment. In this study, I demonstrate that the open economy dimension can enhance the ability of sticky price models to account for the evidence. The reasoning is as follows. An improvement in technology appreciates the nominal exchange rate. Under producer-currency pricing, the exchange rate appreciation shifts global demand toward foreign goods away from domestic goods. This causes a temporary decline in domestic employment.

Monetary Policy Implementation in the Interbank Market

The liquidity crisis that swept through the financial markets in 2007 triggered multi-billion losses and forced buyouts of some large banks. The resulting credit crunch is sometimes compared to the great recession in the early twentieth century. But the crisis also serves as a reminder of the significance of the interbank market and of proper central bank policy in this market. This thesis deals with implementation of monetary policy in the interbank market and examines how central bank tools affect commercial banks' decisions. I answer the following questions: • What is the relationship between the policy setup and interbank interest rate volatility? (averaging reserve requirement reduces the volatility) • What can explain a weak relationship between market liquidity and the interest rate? (high reserve requirement buffer) • What determines banks' decisions on when to satisfy the reserve requirement? (market frictions) • How did the liquidity crisis that began in 2007 affect interbank market behaviour? (resulted in higher credit risk and trading frictions as well as expected liquidity shortage)

Elements of Volatility at High Frequency

Volatility is central in options pricing and risk management. It reflects the uncertainty of investors and the inherent instability of the economy. Time series methods are among the most widely applied scientific methods to analyze and predict volatility. Very frequently sampled data contain much valuable information about the different elements of volatility and may ultimately reveal the reasons for time varying volatility. The use of such ultra-high-frequency data is common to all three essays of the dissertation. The dissertation belongs to the field of financial econometrics. The first essay uses wavelet methods to study the time-varying behavior of scaling laws and long-memory in the five-minute volatility series of Nokia on the Helsinki Stock Exchange around the burst of the IT-bubble. The essay is motivated by earlier findings which suggest that different scaling laws may apply to intraday time-scales and to larger time-scales, implying that the so-called annualized volatility depends on the data sampling frequency. The empirical results confirm the appearance of time varying long-memory and different scaling laws that, for a significant part, can be attributed to investor irrationality and to an intraday volatility periodicity called the New York effect. The findings have potentially important consequences for options pricing and risk management that commonly assume constant memory and scaling. The second essay investigates modelling the duration between trades in stock markets. Durations convoy information about investor intentions and provide an alternative view at volatility. Generalizations of standard autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models are developed to meet needs observed in previous applications of the standard models. According to the empirical results based on data of actively traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the Helsinki Stock Exchange the proposed generalization clearly outperforms the standard models and also performs well in comparison to another recently proposed alternative to the standard models. The distribution used to derive the generalization may also prove valuable in other areas of risk management. The third essay studies empirically the effect of decimalization on volatility and market microstructure noise. Decimalization refers to the change from fractional pricing to decimal pricing and it was carried out on the New York Stock Exchange in January, 2001. The methods used here are more accurate than in the earlier studies and put more weight on market microstructure. The main result is that decimalization decreased observed volatility by reducing noise variance especially for the highly active stocks. The results help risk management and market mechanism designing.

On measurements of formation, growth, hygroscopicity, and volatility of atmospheric ultrafine particles

Atmospheric aerosol particles affect the global climate as well as human health. In this thesis, formation of nanometer sized atmospheric aerosol particles and their subsequent growth was observed to occur all around the world. Typical formation rate of 3 nm particles at varied from 0.01 to 10 cm-3s-1. One order of magnitude higher formation rates were detected in urban environment. Highest formation rates up to 105 cm-3s-1 were detected in coastal areas and in industrial pollution plumes. Subsequent growth rates varied from 0.01 to 20 nm h-1. Smallest growth rates were observed in polar areas and the largest in the polluted urban environment. This was probably due to competition between growth by condensation and loss by coagulation. Observed growth rates were used in the calculation of a proxy condensable vapour concentration and its source rate in vastly different environments from pristine Antarctica to polluted India. Estimated concentrations varied only 2 orders of magnitude, but the source rates for the vapours varied up to 4 orders of magnitude. Highest source rates were in New Delhi and lowest were in the Antarctica. Indirect methods were applied to study the growth of freshly formed particles in the atmosphere. Also a newly developed Water Condensation Particle Counter, TSI 3785, was found to be a potential candidate to detect water solubility and thus indirectly composition of atmospheric ultra-fine particles. Based on indirect methods, the relative roles of sulphuric acid, non-volatile material and coagulation were investigated in rural Melpitz, Germany. Condensation of non-volatile material explained 20-40% and sulphuric acid the most of the remaining growth up to a point, when nucleation mode reached 10 to 20 nm in diameter. Coagulation contributed typically less than 5%. Furthermore, hygroscopicity measurements were applied to detect the contribution of water soluble and insoluble components in Athens. During more polluted days, the water soluble components contributed more to the growth. During less anthropogenic influence, non-soluble compounds explained a larger fraction of the growth. In addition, long range transport to a measurement station in Finland in a relatively polluted air mass was found to affect the hygroscopicity of the particles. This aging could have implications to cloud formation far away from the pollution sources.

Three Essays on the Volatility of Finnish Stock Returns (summary section only)

First, in Essay 1, we test whether it is possible to forecast Finnish Options Index return volatility by examining the out-of-sample predictive ability of several common volatility models with alternative well-known methods; and find additional evidence for the predictability of volatility and for the superiority of the more complicated models over the simpler ones. Secondly, in Essay 2, the aggregated volatility of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange is decomposed into a market, industry-and firm-level component, and it is found that firm-level (i.e., idiosyncratic) volatility has increased in time, is more substantial than the two former, predicts GDP growth, moves countercyclically and as well as the other components is persistent. Thirdly, in Essay 3, we are among the first in the literature to seek for firm-specific determinants of idiosyncratic volatility in a multivariate setting, and find for the cross-section of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange that industrial focus, trading volume, and block ownership, are positively associated with idiosyncratic volatility estimates––obtained from both the CAPM and the Fama and French three-factor model with local and international benchmark portfolios––whereas a negative relation holds between firm age as well as size and idiosyncratic volatility.