Digital elevation model error in terrain analysis

Digital elevation models (DEMs) have been an important topic in geography and surveying sciences for decades due to their geomorphological importance as the reference surface for gravita-tion-driven material flow, as well as the wide range of uses and applications. When DEM is used in terrain analysis, for example in automatic drainage basin delineation, errors of the model collect in the analysis results. Investigation of this phenomenon is known as error propagation analysis, which has a direct influence on the decision-making process based on interpretations and applications of terrain analysis. Additionally, it may have an indirect influence on data acquisition and the DEM generation. The focus of the thesis was on the fine toposcale DEMs, which are typically represented in a 5-50m grid and used in the application scale 1:10 000-1:50 000. The thesis presents a three-step framework for investigating error propagation in DEM-based terrain analysis. The framework includes methods for visualising the morphological gross errors of DEMs, exploring the statistical and spatial characteristics of the DEM error, making analytical and simulation-based error propagation analysis and interpreting the error propagation analysis results. The DEM error model was built using geostatistical methods. The results show that appropriate and exhaustive reporting of various aspects of fine toposcale DEM error is a complex task. This is due to the high number of outliers in the error distribution and morphological gross errors, which are detectable with presented visualisation methods. In ad-dition, the use of global characterisation of DEM error is a gross generalisation of reality due to the small extent of the areas in which the decision of stationarity is not violated. This was shown using exhaustive high-quality reference DEM based on airborne laser scanning and local semivariogram analysis. The error propagation analysis revealed that, as expected, an increase in the DEM vertical error will increase the error in surface derivatives. However, contrary to expectations, the spatial au-tocorrelation of the model appears to have varying effects on the error propagation analysis depend-ing on the application. The use of a spatially uncorrelated DEM error model has been considered as a 'worst-case scenario', but this opinion is now challenged because none of the DEM derivatives investigated in the study had maximum variation with spatially uncorrelated random error. Sig-nificant performance improvement was achieved in simulation-based error propagation analysis by applying process convolution in generating realisations of the DEM error model. In addition, typology of uncertainty in drainage basin delineations is presented.

Preoperative visual acuity of cataract patients. Repeatability of visual acuity and refractive error measurements in clinical settings

Visual acuities at the time of referral and on the day before surgery were compared in 124 patients operated on for cataract in Vaasa Central Hospital, Finland. Preoperative visual acuity and the occurrence of ocular and general disease were compared in samples of consecutive cataract extractions performed in 1982, 1985, 1990, 1995 and 2000 in two hospitals in the Vaasa region in Finland. The repeatability and standard deviation of random measurement error in visual acuity and refractive error determination in a clinical environment in cataractous, pseudophakic and healthy eyes were estimated by re-examining visual acuity and refractive error of patients referred to cataract surgery or consultation by ophthalmic professionals. Altogether 99 eyes of 99 persons (41 cataractous, 36 pseudophakic and 22 healthy eyes) with a visual acuity range of Snellen 0.3 to 1.3 (0.52 to -0.11 logMAR) were examined. During an average waiting time of 13 months, visual acuity in the study eye decreased from 0.68 logMAR to 0.96 logMAR (from 0.2 to 0.1 in Snellen decimal values). The average decrease in vision was 0.27 logMAR per year. In the fastest quartile, visual acuity change per year was 0.75 logMAR, and in the second fastest 0.29 logMAR, the third and fourth quartiles were virtually unaffected. From 1982 to 2000, the incidence of cataract surgery increased from 1.0 to 7.2 operations per 1000 inhabitants per year in the Vaasa region. The average preoperative visual acuity in the operated eye increased by 0.85 logMAR (in decimal values from 0.03to 0.2) and in the better eye 0.27 logMAR (in decimal values from 0.23 to 0.43) over this period. The proportion of patients profoundly visually handicapped (VA in the better eye <0.1) before the operation fell from 15% to 4%, and that of patients less profoundly visually handicapped (VA in the better eye 0.1 to <0.3) from 47% to 15%. The repeatability visual acuity measurement estimated as a coefficient of repeatability for all 99 eyes was ±0.18 logMAR, and the standard deviation of measurement error was 0.06 logMAR. Eyes with the lowest visual acuity (0.3-0.45) had the largest variability, the coefficient of repeatability values being ±0.24 logMAR and eyes with a visual acuity of 0.7 or better had the smallest, ±0.12 logMAR. The repeatability of refractive error measurement was studied in the same patient material as the repeatability of visual acuity. Differences between measurements 1 and 2 were calculated as three-dimensional vector values and spherical equivalents and expressed by coefficients of repeatability. Coefficients of repeatability for all eyes for vertical, torsional and horisontal vectors were ±0.74D, ±0.34D and ±0.93D, respectively, and for spherical equivalent for all eyes ±0.74D. Eyes with lower visual acuity (0.3-0.45) had larger variability in vector and spherical equivalent values (±1.14), but the difference between visual acuity groups was not statistically significant. The difference in the mean defocus equivalent between measurements 1 and 2 was, however, significantly greater in the lower visual acuity group. If a change of ±0.5D (measured in defocus equivalents) is accepted as a basis for change of spectacles for eyes with good vision, the basis for eyes in the visual acuity range of 0.3 - 0.65 would be ±1D. Differences in repeated visual acuity measurements are partly explained by errors in refractive error measurements.

Urban energy fluxes in Helsinki and their high frequency spectral corrections

Inadvertent climate modification has led to an increase in urban temperatures compared to the surrounding rural area. The main reason for the temperature rise is the altered energy portioning of input net radiation to heat storage and sensible and latent heat fluxes in addition to the anthropogenic heat flux. The heat storage flux and anthropogenic heat flux have not yet been determined for Helsinki and they are not directly measurable. To the contrary, turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat in addition to net radiation can be measured, and the anthropogenic heat flux together with the heat storage flux can be solved as a residual. As a result, all inaccuracies in the determination of the energy balance components propagate to the residual term and special attention must be paid to the accurate determination of the components. One cause of error in the turbulent fluxes is the fluctuation attenuation at high frequencies which can be accounted for by high frequency spectral corrections. The aim of this study is twofold: to assess the relevance of high frequency corrections to water vapor fluxes and to assess the temporal variation of the energy fluxes. Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat have been measured at SMEAR III station, Helsinki, since December 2005 using the eddy covariance technique. In addition, net radiation measurements have been ongoing since July 2007. The used calculation methods in this study consist of widely accepted eddy covariance data post processing methods in addition to Fourier and wavelet analysis. The high frequency spectral correction using the traditional transfer function method is highly dependent on relative humidity and has an 11% effect on the latent heat flux. This method is based on an assumption of spectral similarity which is shown not to be valid. A new correction method using wavelet analysis is thus initialized and it seems to account for the high frequency variation deficit. Anyhow, the resulting wavelet correction remains minimal in contrast to the traditional transfer function correction. The energy fluxes exhibit a behavior characteristic for urban environments: the energy input is channeled to sensible heat as latent heat flux is restricted by water availability. The monthly mean residual of the energy balance ranges from 30 Wm-2 in summer to -35 Wm-2 in winter meaning a heat storage to the ground during summer. Furthermore, the anthropogenic heat flux is approximated to be 50 Wm-2 during winter when residential heating is important.

Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Seasonal and short-term variation in denitrification and anammox at a coastal station on the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

Benthic processes were measured at a coastal deposition area in the northern Baltic Sea, covering all seasons. The N-2 production rates, 90-400 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1), were highest in autumn-early winter and lowest in spring. Heterotrophic bacterial production peaked unexpectedly late in the year, indicating that in addition to the temperature, the availability of carbon compounds suitable for the heterotrophic bacteria also plays a major role in regulating the denitrification rate. Anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) was measured in spring and autumn and contributed 10% and 15%, respectively, to the total N-2 production. The low percentage did, however, result in a significant error in the total N-2 production rate estimate, calculated using the isotope pairing technique. Anammox must be taken into account in the Gulf of Finland in future sediment nitrogen cycling research.

Karl Popper's Philosophy of Science - And the Evolution of the Popperian Worlds

This doctoral thesis in theoretical philosophy is a systematic analysis of Karl Popper's philosophy of science and its relation to his theory of three worlds. The general aim is to study Popper's philosophy of science and to show that Popper's theory of three worlds was a restatement of his earlier positions. As a result, a new reading of Popper's philosophy and development is offered and the theory of three worlds is analysed in a new manner. It is suggested that the theory of three worlds is not purely an ontological theory, but has a profound epistemological motivation. In Part One, Popper's epistemology and philosophy of science is analysed. It is claimed that Popper's thinking was bifurcated: he held two profound positions without noticing the tension between them. Popper adopted the position called the theorist around 1930 and focused on the logical structure of scientific theories. In Logik der Forschung (1935), he attempted to build a logic of science on the grounds that scientific theories may be regarded as universal statements which are not verifiable but can be falsified. Later, Popper emphasized another position, called here the processionalist. Popper focused on the study of science as a process and held that a) philosophy of science should study the growth of knowledge and that b) all cognitive processes are constitutive. Moreover, the constitutive idea that we see the world in the searchlight of our theories was combined with the biological insight that knowledge grows by trial and error. In Part Two, the theory of three worlds is analysed systematically. The theory is discussed as a cluster of theories which originate from Popper's attempt to solve some internal problems in his thinking. Popper adhered to realism and wished to reconcile the theorist and the processionalist. He also stressed the real and active nature of the human mind, and the possibility of objective knowledge. Finally, he wished to create a scientific world view.

Genotyping for genetic association studies: Methods and applications

In this thesis, two separate single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping techniques were set up at the Finnish Genome Center, pooled genotyping was evaluated as a screening method for large-scale association studies, and finally, the former approaches were used to identify genetic factors predisposing to two distinct complex diseases by utilizing large epidemiological cohorts and also taking environmental factors into account. The first genotyping platform was based on traditional but improved restriction-fragment-length-polymorphism (RFLP) utilizing 384-microtiter well plates, multiplexing, small reaction volumes (5 µl), and automated genotype calling. We participated in the development of the second genotyping method, based on single nucleotide primer extension (SNuPeTM by Amersham Biosciences), by carrying out the alpha- and beta tests for the chemistry and the allele-calling software. Both techniques proved to be accurate, reliable, and suitable for projects with thousands of samples and tens of markers. Pooled genotyping (genotyping of pooled instead of individual DNA samples) was evaluated with Sequenom s MassArray MALDI-TOF, in addition to SNuPeTM and PCR-RFLP techniques. We used MassArray mainly as a point of comparison, because it is known to be well suited for pooled genotyping. All three methods were shown to be accurate, the standard deviations between measurements being 0.017 for the MassArray, 0.022 for the PCR-RFLP, and 0.026 for the SNuPeTM. The largest source of error in the process of pooled genotyping was shown to be the volumetric error, i.e., the preparation of pools. We also demonstrated that it would have been possible to narrow down the genetic locus underlying congenital chloride diarrhea (CLD), an autosomal recessive disorder, by using the pooling technique instead of genotyping individual samples. Although the approach seems to be well suited for traditional case-control studies, it is difficult to apply if any kind of stratification based on environmental factors is needed. Therefore we chose to continue with individual genotyping in the following association studies. Samples in the two separate large epidemiological cohorts were genotyped with the PCR-RFLP and SNuPeTM techniques. The first of these association studies concerned various pregnancy complications among 100,000 consecutive pregnancies in Finland, of which we genotyped 2292 patients and controls, in addition to a population sample of 644 blood donors, with 7 polymorphisms in the potentially thrombotic genes. In this thesis, the analysis of a sub-study of pregnancy-related venous thromboses was included. We showed that the impact of factor V Leiden polymorphism on pregnancy-related venous thrombosis, but not the other tested polymorphisms, was fairly large (odds ratio 11.6; 95% CI 3.6-33.6), and increased multiplicatively when combined with other risk factors such as obesity or advanced age. Owing to our study design, we were also able to estimate the risks at the population level. The second epidemiological cohort was the Helsinki Birth Cohort of men and women who were born during 1924-1933 in Helsinki. The aim was to identify genetic factors that might modify the well known link between small birth size and adult metabolic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance. Among ~500 individuals with detailed birth measurements and current metabolic profile, we found that an insertion/deletion polymorphism of the angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) gene was associated with the duration of gestation, and weight and length at birth. Interestingly, the ACE insertion allele was also associated with higher indices of insulin secretion (p=0.0004) in adult life, but only among individuals who were born small (those among the lowest third of birth weight). Likewise, low birth weight was associated with higher indices of insulin secretion (p=0.003), but only among carriers of the ACE insertion allele. The association with birth measurements was also found with a common haplotype of the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) gene. Furthermore, the association between short length at birth and adult impaired glucose tolerance was confined to carriers of this haplotype (p=0.007). These associations exemplify the interaction between environmental factors and genotype, which, possibly due to altered gene expression, predisposes to complex metabolic diseases. Indeed, we showed that the common GR gene haplotype associated with reduced mRNA expression in thymus of three individuals (p=0.0002).

Field intercomparison of four methane gas analysers suitable for eddy covariance flux measurements

Eddy covariance (EC)-flux measurement technique is based on measurement of turbulent motions of air with accurate and fast measurement devices. For instance, in order to measure methane flux a fast methane gas analyser is needed which measures methane concentration at least ten times in a second in addition to a sonic anemometer, which measures the three wind components with the same sampling interval. Previously measurement of methane flux was almost impossible to carry out with EC-technique due to lack of fast enough gas analysers. However during the last decade new instruments have been developed and thus methane EC-flux measurements have become more common. Performance of four methane gas analysers suitable for eddy covariance measurements are assessed in this thesis. The assessment and comparison was performed by analysing EC-data obtained during summer 2010 (1.4.-26.10.) at Siikaneva fen. The four participating methane gas analysers are TGA-100A (Campbell Scientific Inc., USA), RMT-200 (Los Gatos Research, USA), G1301-f (Picarro Inc., USA) and Prototype-7700 (LI-COR Biosciences, USA). RMT-200 functioned most reliably throughout the measurement campaign and the corresponding methane flux data had the smallest random error. In addition, methane fluxes calculated from data obtained from G1301-f and RMT-200 agree remarkably well throughout the measurement campaign. The calculated cospectra and power spectra agree well with corresponding temperature spectra. Prototype-7700 functioned only slightly over one month in the beginning of the measurement campaign and thus its accuracy and long-term performance is difficult to assess.

Lypsylehmän energiataseen mallintaminen tuotoskauden alkuvaiheessa

Energiataseen mallinnus on osa KarjaKompassi-hankkeeseen liittyvää kehitystyötä. Tutkielman tavoitteena oli kehittää lypsylehmän energiatasetta etukäteen ennustavia ja tuotoskauden aikana saatavia tietoja hyödyntäviä matemaattisia malleja. Selittävinä muuttujina olivat dieetti-, rehu-, maitotuotos-, koelypsy-, elopaino- ja kuntoluokkatiedot. Tutkimuksen aineisto kerättiin 12 Suomessa tehdyistä 8 – 28 laktaatioviikon pituisesta ruokintakokeesta, jotka alkoivat heti poikimisen jälkeen. Mukana olleista 344 lypsylehmästä yksi neljäsosa oli friisiläis- ja loput ayshire-rotuisia. Vanhempien lehmien päätiedosto sisälsi 2647 havaintoa (koe * lehmä * laktaatioviikko) ja ensikoiden 1070. Aineisto käsiteltiin SAS-ohjelmiston Mixed-proseduuria käyttäen ja poikkeavat havainnot poistettiin Tukeyn menetelmällä. Korrelaatioanalyysillä tarkasteltiin energiataseen ja selittävien muuttujien välisiä yhteyksiä. Energiatase mallinnettiin regressioanalyysillä. Laktaatiopäivän vaikutusta energiataseeseen selitettiin viiden eri funktion avulla. Satunnaisena tekijänä mallissa oli lehmä kokeen sisällä. Mallin sopivuutta aineistoon tarkasteltiin jäännösvirheen, selitysasteen ja Bayesin informaatiokriteerin avulla. Parhaat mallit testattiin riippumattomassa aineistossa. Laktaatiopäivän vaikutusta energiataseeseen selitti hyvin Ali-Schaefferin funktio, jota käytettiin perusmallina. Kaikissa energiatasemalleissa vaihtelu kasvoi laktaatioviikosta 12. alkaen, kun havaintojen määrä väheni ja energiatase muuttui positiiviseksi. Ennen poikimista käytettävissä olevista muuttujista dieetin väkirehuosuus ja väkirehun syönti-indeksi paransivat selitysastetta ja pienensivät jäännösvirhettä. Ruokinnan onnistumista voidaan seurata maitotuotoksen, maidon rasvapitoisuuden ja rasva-valkuaissuhteen tai EKM:n sisältävillä malleilla. EKM:n vakiointi pienensi mallin jäännösvirhettä. Elopaino ja kuntoluokka olivat heikkoja selittäjiä. Malleja voidaan hyödyntää karjatason ruokinnan suunnittelussa ja seurannassa, mutta yksittäisen lehmän energiataseen ennustamiseen ne eivät sovellu.