ICT and the Shaping of Society: Exploring Human -ICT Relationships in Everyday Life (summary section only)

This thesis explores the relationship between humans and ICTs (information and communication technologies). As ICTs are increasingly penetrating all spheres of social life, their role as mediators – between people, between people and information, and even between people and the natural world – is expanding, and they are increasingly shaping social life. Yet, we still know little of how our life is affected by their growing role. Our understanding of the actors and forces driving the accelerating adoption of new ICTs in all areas of life is also fairly limited. This thesis addresses these problems by interpretively exploring the link between ICTs and the shaping of society at home, in the office, and in the community. The thesis builds on empirical material gathered in three research projects, presented in four separate essays. The first project explores computerized office work through a case study. The second is a regional development project aiming at increasing ICT knowledge and use in 50 small-town families. In the third, the second project is compared to three other longitudinal development projects funded by the European Union. Using theories that consider the human-ICT relationship as intertwined, the thesis provides a multifaceted description of life with ICTs in contemporary information society. By oscillating between empirical and theoretical investigations and balancing between determinist and constructivist conceptualisations of the human-ICT relationship, I construct a dialectical theoretical framework that can be used for studying socio-technical contexts in society. This framework helps us see how societal change stems from the complex social processes that surround routine everyday actions. For example, interacting with and through ICTs may change individuals’ perceptions of time and space, social roles, and the proper ways to communicate – changes which at some point in time result in societal change in terms of, for example, new ways of acting and knowing things.

Changes in Beer Labels and their Meaning : A Holistic Approach to the Semiosic Process

The purpose of this study is to find a framework for a holistic approach to, and form a conceptual toolbox for, investigating changes in signs and in their interpretation. Charles S. Peirce s theory of signs in a communicative perspective is taken as a basis for the framework. The concern directing the study is the problem of a missing framework in analysing signs of visual artefacts from a holistic perspective as well as that of the missing conceptual tools. To discover the possibility of such a holistic approach to semiosic processes and to form a conceptual toolbox the following issues are discussed: i) how the many Objects with two aspects involved in Peirce s definition of sign-action, promote multiple semiosis arising from the same sign by the same Interpretant depending on the domination of the Objects; ii) in which way can the relation of the individual and society or group be made more apparent in the construction of the self since this construction is intertwined with the process of meaning-creation and interpretation; iii) how to account for the fundamental role of emotions in semiosis, and the relation of emotions with the often neglected topic of embodiment; iv) how to take into account the dynamic, mediating and processual nature of sign-action in analysing and understanding the changes in signs and in the interpretation of signs. An interdisciplinary approach is chosen for this dissertation. Concepts that developed within social psychology, developmental psychology, neurosciences and semiotics, are discussed. The common aspect of the approaches is that they in one way or another concentrate on mediation provided by signs in explaining human activity and cognition. The holistic approach and conceptual toolbox found are employed in a case study. This consists of an analysis of beer brands including a comparison of brands from two different cultures. It becomes clear that different theories and approaches have mutual affinities and do complement each other. In addition, the affinities in different disciplines somewhat provide credence to the various views. From the combined approach described, it becomes apparent that by the semiosic process, the emerging semiotic self intertwined with the Umwelt, including emotions, can be described. Seeing the interpretation and meaning-making through semiosis allows for the analysis of groups, taking into account the embodied and emotional component. It is concluded that emotions have a crucial role in all human activity, including so-called reflective thinking, and that emotions and embodiment should be consciously taken into account in analysing signs, the interpretation, and in changes of signs and interpretations from both the social and individual level. The analysis of the beer labels expresses well the intertwined nature of the relationship between signs, individual consumers and society. Many direct influences from society on the label design are found, and also some indirect attitude changes that become apparent from magazines, company reports, etc. In addition, the analysis brings up the issues of the unifying tendency of the visual artefacts of different cultures, but also demonstrates that the visual artefacts are able to hold the local signs and meanings, and sometimes are able to represent the local meanings although the signs have changed in the unifying process.

Teacher Education, School Effectiveness and Improvement : A Study of Academic and Professional Qualification on Teachers' Job Effectiveness in Nigerian Secondary Schools

This academic work begins with a compact presentation of the general background to the study, which also includes an autobiography for the interest in this research. The presentation provides readers who know little of the topic of this research and of the structure of the educational system as well as of the value given to education in Nigeria. It further concentrates on the dynamic interplay of the effect of academic and professional qualification and teachers' job effectiveness in secondary schools in Nigeria in particular, and in Africa in general. The aim of this study is to produce a systematic analysis and rich theoretical and empirical description of teachers' teaching competencies. The theoretical part comprises a comprehensive literature review that focuses on research conducted in the areas of academic and professional qualification and teachers' job effectiveness, teaching competencies, and the role of teacher education with particular emphasis on school effectiveness and improvement. This research benefits greatly from the functionalist conception of education, which is built upon two emphases: the application of the scientific method to the objective social world, and the use of an analogy between the individual 'organism' and 'society'. To this end, it offers us an opportunity to define terms systematically and to view problems as always being interrelated with other components of society. The empirical part involves describing and interpreting what educational objectives can be achieved with the help of teachers' teaching competencies in close connection to educational planning, teacher training and development, and achieving them without waste. The data used in this study were collected between 2002 and 2003 from teachers, principals, supervisors of education from the Ministry of Education and Post Primary Schools Board in the Rivers State of Nigeria (N=300). The data were collected from interviews, documents, observation, and questionnaires and were analyzed using both qualitative and quantitative methods to strengthen the validity of the findings. The data collected were analyzed to answer the specific research questions and hypotheses posited in this study. The data analysis involved the use of multiple statistical procedures: Percentages Mean Point Value, T-test of Significance, One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and Cross Tabulation. The results obtained from the data analysis show that teachers require professional knowledge and professional teaching skills, as well as a broad base of general knowledge (e.g., morality, service, cultural capital, institutional survey). Above all, in order to carry out instructional processes effectively, teachers should be both academically and professionally trained. This study revealed that teachers are not however expected to have an extraordinary memory, but rather looked upon as persons capable of thinking in the right direction. This study may provide a solution to the problem of teacher education and school effectiveness in Nigeria. For this reason, I offer this treatise to anyone seriously committed in improving schools in developing countries in general and in Nigeria in particular to improve the lives of all its citizens. In particular, I write this to encourage educational planners, education policy makers, curriculum developers, principals, teachers, and students of education interested in empirical information and methods to conceptualize the issue this study has raised and to provide them with useful suggestions to help them improve secondary schooling in Nigeria. Though, multiple audiences exist for any text. For this reason, I trust that the academic community will find this piece of work a useful addition to the existing literature on school effectiveness and school improvement. Through integrating concepts from a number of disciplines, I aim to describe as holistic a representation as space could allow of the components of school effectiveness and quality improvement. A new perspective on teachers' professional competencies, which not only take into consideration the unique characteristics of the variables used in this study, but also recommend their environmental and cultural derivation. In addition, researchers should focus their attention on the ways in which both professional and non-professional teachers construct and apply their methodological competencies, such as their grouping procedures and behaviors to the schooling of students. Keywords: Professional Training, Academic Training, Professionally Qualified, Academically Qualified, Professional Qualification, Academic Qualification, Job Effectiveness, Job Efficiency, Educational Planning, Teacher Training and Development, Nigeria.

Exploring privacy for ubiquitous computing: Tools, methods and experiments

Ubiquitous computing is about making computers and computerized artefacts a pervasive part of our everyday lifes, bringing more and more activities into the realm of information. The computationalization, informationalization of everyday activities increases not only our reach, efficiency and capabilities but also the amount and kinds of data gathered about us and our activities. In this thesis, I explore how information systems can be constructed so that they handle this personal data in a reasonable manner. The thesis provides two kinds of results: on one hand, tools and methods for both the construction as well as the evaluation of ubiquitous and mobile systems---on the other hand an evaluation of the privacy aspects of a ubiquitous social awareness system. The work emphasises real-world experiments as the most important way to study privacy. Additionally, the state of current information systems as regards data protection is studied. The tools and methods in this thesis consist of three distinct contributions. An algorithm for locationing in cellular networks is proposed that does not require the location information to be revealed beyond the user's terminal. A prototyping platform for the creation of context-aware ubiquitous applications called ContextPhone is described and released as open source. Finally, a set of methodological findings for the use of smartphones in social scientific field research is reported. A central contribution of this thesis are the pragmatic tools that allow other researchers to carry out experiments. The evaluation of the ubiquitous social awareness application ContextContacts covers both the usage of the system in general as well as an analysis of privacy implications. The usage of the system is analyzed in the light of how users make inferences of others based on real-time contextual cues mediated by the system, based on several long-term field studies. The analysis of privacy implications draws together the social psychological theory of self-presentation and research in privacy for ubiquitous computing, deriving a set of design guidelines for such systems. The main findings from these studies can be summarized as follows: The fact that ubiquitous computing systems gather more data about users can be used to not only study the use of such systems in an effort to create better systems but in general to study phenomena previously unstudied, such as the dynamic change of social networks. Systems that let people create new ways of presenting themselves to others can be fun for the users---but the self-presentation requires several thoughtful design decisions that allow the manipulation of the image mediated by the system. Finally, the growing amount of computational resources available to the users can be used to allow them to use the data themselves, rather than just being passive subjects of data gathering.

Trust and Collectives

"Trust and Collectives" is a compilation of articles: (I) "On Rational Trust" (in Meggle, G. (ed.) Social Facts & Collective Intentionality, Dr. Hänsel-Hohenhausen AG (currently Ontos), 2002), (II) "Simulating Rational Social Normative Trust, Predictive Trust, and Predictive Reliance Between Agents" (M.Tuomela and S. Hofmann, Ethics and Information Technology 5, 2003), (III) "A Collective's Trust in a Collective's action" (Protosociology, 18-19, 2003), and (IV) "Cooperation and Trust in Group Contexts" (R. Tuomela and M.Tuomela, Mind and Society 4/1, 2005 ). The articles are tied together by an introduction that dwells deeply on the topic of trust. (I) presents a somewhat general version of (RSNTR) and some basic arguments. (II) offers an application of (RSNTR) for a computer simulation of trust.(III) applies (RSNTR) to Raimo Tuomela's "we-mode"collectives (i.e. The Philosophy of Social Practices, Cambridge University Press, 2002). (IV) analyzes cooperation and trust in the context of acting as a member of a collective. Thus, (IV) elaborates on the topic of collective agency in (III) and puts the trust account (RSNTR) to work in a framework of cooperation. The central aim of this work is to construct a well-argued conceptual and theoretical account of rational trust, viz. a person's subjectively rational trust in another person vis-à-vis his performance of an action, seen from a first-person point of view. The main method is conceptual and theoretical analysis understood along the lines of reflective equilibrium. The account of rational social normative trust (RSNTR), which is argued and defended against other views, is the result of the quest. The introduction stands on its own legs as an argued presentation of an analysis of the concept of rational trust and an analysis of trust itself (RSNTR). It is claimed that (RSNTR) is "genuine" trust and embedded in a relationship of mutual respect for the rights of the other party. This relationship is the growing site for trust, a causal and conceptual ground, but it is not taken as a reason for trusting (viz. predictive "trust"). Relevant themes such as risk, decision, rationality, control, and cooperation are discussed and the topics of the articles are briefly presented. In this work it is argued that genuine trust is to be kept apart from predictive "trust." When we trust a person vis-à-vis his future action that concerns ourselves on the basis of his personal traits and/or features of the specific situation we have a prediction-like attitude. Genuine trust develops in a relationship of mutual respect for the mutual rights of the other party. Such a relationship is formed through interaction where the parties gradually find harmony concerning "the rules of the game." The trust account stands as a contribution to philosophical research on central social notions and it could be used as a theoretical model in social psychology, economical and political science where interaction between persons and groups are in focus. The analysis could also serve as a model for a trust component in computer simulation of human action. In the context of everyday life the account clarifies the difference between predictive "trust" and genuine trust. There are no fast shortcuts to trust. Experiences of mutual respect for mutual rights cannot be had unless there is respect.

Consent Practices and Biomedical Knowledge Production in Tissue Economies

The use of human tissue sample collections has become an important tool in biomedical research. The collection, use and distribution of human tissue samples, which include blood and diagnostic tissue samples, from which DNA can be extracted and analyzed has also become a major bio-political preoccupation, not only in national contexts, but also at the transnational level. The foundation of medical research rests on the relationship between the doctor and the research subject. This relationship is a social one, in that it is based on informed consent, privacy and autonomy, where research subjects are made aware of what they are getting involved in and are then able to make an informed decision as to whether or not to participate. Within the post-genomic era, however, our understanding of what constitutes informed consent, privacy and autonomy is changing in relation to the needs of researchers, but also as a reflection of policy aspirations. This reflects a change in the power relations between the rights of the individual in relation to the interests of science and society. Using the notions of tissue economies and biovalue (Waldby, 2002) this research explores the changing relationship between sources and users of samples in biomedical research by examining the contexts under which human tissue samples and the information that is extracted from them are acquired, circulated and exchanged in Finland. The research examines how individual rights, particularly informed consent, are being configured in relation to the production of scientific knowledge in tissue economies in Finland from the 1990s to the present. The research examines the production of biovalue through the organization of scientific knowledge production by examining the policy context of knowledge production as well as three case studies (Tampere Research Tissue Bank, Hereditary Non-polyposis Colorectal Cancer and the Finnish Genome Information Center) in which tissues are acquired, circulated and exchanged in Finland. The research shows how interpretations of informed consent have become divergent and the elements and processes that have contributed to these differences. This inquiry shows how the relationship between the interests of individuals is re-configured in relation to the interests of science and society. It indicates how the boundary between interpretations of informed consent, on the one hand, and social and scientific interests, on the other, are being re-drawn and that this process is underscored, in part, by the economic, commercial and preventive potential that research using tissue samples are believed to produce. This can be said to fundamentally challenge the western notion that the rights of the individual are absolute and inalienable within biomedical legislation.

What should I think; How should I feel? : The balancing of personal experiences and social norms in the outgroup attitude formation of youth

The present study focused on the associations between the personal experiences of intergroup contact, perceived social norms and the outgroup attitudes of Finnish majority and Russian-speaking minority youth living in Finland. The theoretical background of the study was derived from Allport s (1954) theory of intergroup contact (i.e., the contact hypothesis), social psychological research on normative influences on outgroup attitudes (e.g., Rutland, 2004; Stangor and Leary, 2006) and developmental psychological research on the formation of explicit (deliberate) and implicit (automatically activated) outgroup attitudes in adolescence (e.g., Barrett, 2007; Killen, McGlothlin and Henning, 2008). The main objective of the study was to shed light on the role of perceived social norms in the formation of outgroup attitudes among adolescents. First, the study showed that perceived normative pressure to hold positive attitudes towards immigrants regulated the relationship between the explicit and implicit expression of outgroup attitudes among majority youth. Second, perceived social norms concerning outgroup attitudes (i.e., the perceived outgroup attitudes of parents and peers) affected the relationship between intergroup contact and explicit outgroup attitudes depending on gender and group status. Positive social norms seem to be especially important for majority boys, who need both pleasant contact experiences and normative support to develop outgroup attitudes that are as positive as girls attitudes. The role of social norms is accentuated also among minority youth, who, contrary to majority youth with their more powerful and independent status position, need to reflect upon their attitudes and experiences of negative intergroup encounters in relation to the experiences and attitudes of their ingroup members. Third, the results are indicative of the independent effects of social norms and intergroup anxiety on outgroup attitudes: the effect of perceived social norms on the outgroup attitudes of youth seems to be at least as strong as the effect of intergroup anxiety. Finally, it was shown that youth evaluate intergroup contact from the viewpoint of their ingroup and society as a whole, not just based on their own experiences. In conclusion, the outgroup attitudes of youth are formed in a close relationship with their social environment. On the basis of this study, the importance of perceived social norms for research on intergroup contact effects among youth cannot be overlooked. Positive normative influences have the potential to break the strong link between rare and/or negative personal contact experiences and negative outgroup attitudes, and norms also influence the relationship between implicit and explicit attitude expression.

Determinants and Consequences of Information Sharing with Key Suppliers

As companies become more efficient with respect to their internal processes, they begin to shift the focus beyond their corporate boundaries. Thus, the recent years have witnessed an increased interest by practitioners and researchers in interorganizational collaboration, which promises better firm performance through more effective supply chain management. It is no coincidence that this interest comes in parallel with the recent advancements in Information and Communication Technologies, which offer many new collaboration possibilities for companies. However, collaboration, or any other type of supply chain integration effort, relies heavily on information sharing. Hence, this study focuses on information sharing, in particular on the factors that determine it and on its value. The empirical evidence from Finnish and Swedish companies suggests that uncertainty (both demand and environmental) and dependency in terms of switching costs and asset specific investments are significant determinants of information sharing. Results also indicate that information sharing improves company performance regarding resource usage, output, and flexibility. However, companies share information more intensely at the operational rather than the strategic level. The use of supply chain practices and technologies is substantial but varies across the two countries. This study sheds light on a common trend in supply chains today. Whereas the results confirm the value of information sharing, the contingent factors help to explain why the intensity of information shared across companies differ. In the future, competitive pressures and uncertainty are likely to intensify. Therefore, companies may want to continue with their integration efforts by focusing on the determinants discussed in this study. However, at the same time, the possibility of opportunistic behavior by the exchange partner cannot be disregarded.

Growth and Convergence: The case of China

Growth and Convergence: The Case of China Since the initiation of economic reforms in 1978, China has become one of the world’s fast-growing economies. The rapid growth, however, has not been shared equally across the different regions in China. The prominent feature of substantial differences in incomes and growth rates across the different Chinese regions has attracted the attention of many researchers. This book focuses on issues related to economic growth and convergence across the Chinese regions over the past three decades. The book has eight chapters. Apart from an introduction chapter and a concluding chapter, all the other chapters each deal with some certain aspects of the central issue of regional growth and convergence across China over the past three decades. The whole book is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the basic issues involved in this book. Chapter 2 tests economic growth and convergence across 31 Chinese provinces during 1981-2005, based on the theoretical framework of the Solow growth model. Chapter 3 investigates the relationship between openness to foreign economic activities, such as foreign trade and foreign direct investment, and the regional economic growth in the case of China during 1981-2005. Chapter 4, based on data of 31 Chinese provinces over the period 1980-2004, presents new evidence on the effects of structural shocks and structural transformation on growth and convergence among the Chinese regions. Chapter 5, by building up an empirical model that takes account of different potential effects of foreign direct investment, focuses on the impacts of foreign direct investment on China’s regional economic performance and growth. Chapter 6 reconsiders the growth and convergence problem of the Chinese regions in an alternative theoretical framework with endogenous saving behavior and capital mobility across regions. Chapter 7, by building up a theoretical model concerning comparative advantage and transaction efficiency, focuses on one of the potential mechanisms through which China achieves its fast economic growth over the past few decades. Chapter 8 concludes the book by summarizing the results from the previous chapters and suggesting directions for further studies.

Essays on Platforms: Business Strategies, Regulation and Policy in Telecommunications, Media and Technology Industries

The growth of the information economy has been stellar in the last decade. General-purpose technologies such as the computer and the Internet have promoted productivity growth in a large number of industries. The effect on telecommunications, media and technology industries has been particularly strong. These industries include mobile telecommunications, printing and publishing, broadcasting, software, hardware and Internet services. There have been large structural changes, which have led to new questions on business strategies, regulation and policy. This thesis focuses on four such questions and answers them by extending the theoretical literature on platforms. The questions (with short answers) are: (i) Do we need to regulate how Internet service providers discriminate between content providers? (Yes.) (ii) What are the welfare effects of allowing consumers to pay to remove advertisements from advertisement-supported products?(Ambiguous, but those watching ads are worse off.) (iii) Why are some markets characterized by open platforms, extendable by third parties, and some by closed platforms, which are not extendable? (It is a trade-off between intensified competition for consumers and benefits from third parties) (iv) Do private platform providers allow third parties to access their platform when it is socially desirable? (No.)

Somali State Failure: Players, Incentives and Institutions

In Somalia the central government collapsed in 1991 and since then state failure became a widespread phenomenon and one of the greatest political and humanitarian problems facing the world in this century. Thus, the main objective of this research is to answer the following question: What went wrong? Most of the existing literature on the political economy of conflict starts from the assumption that state in Africa is predatory by nature. Unlike these studies, the present research, although it uses predation theory, starts from the social contract approach of state definition. Therefore, rather than contemplating actions and policies of the rulers alone, this approach allows us to deliberately bring the role of the society – as citizens – and other players into the analyses. In Chapter 1, after introducing the study, a simple principal-agent model will be developed to check the logical consistence of the argument and to make the identification of causal mechanism easier. I also identify three main actors in the process of state failure in Somalia: the Somali state, Somali society and the superpowers. In Chapter 2, so as to understand the incentives, preferences and constraints of each player in the state failure game, I in some depth analyse the evolution and structure of three central informal institutions: identity based patronage system of leadership, political tribalism, and the Cold War. These three institutions are considered as the rules of the game in the Somali state failure. Chapter 3 summarises the successive civilian governments’ achievements and failures (1960-69) concerning the main national goals, national unification and socio-economic development. Chapter 4 shows that the military regime, although it assumed power through extralegal means, served to some extent the developmental interest of the citizens in the first five years of its rule. Chapter 5 shows the process, and the factors involved, of the military regime’s self-transformation from being an agent for the developmental interests of the society to a predatory state that not only undermines the interests of the society but that also destroys the state itself. Chapter 6 addresses the process of disintegration of the post-colonial state of Somalia. The chapter shows how the regime’s merciless reactions to political ventures by power-seeking opposition leaders shattered the entire country and wrecked the state institutions. Chapter 7 concludes the study by summarising the main findings: due to the incentive structures generated by the informal institutions, the formal state institutions fell apart.

Sustainability and Mission Drift in Microfinance

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are constrained by double bottom-lines: meeting social obligations (the first bottom-line) and obtaining financial self-sufficiency (the second bottom-line). The proponents of the first bottom-line, however, are increasingly concerned that there is a trade-off between these two bottom-lines—i.e., getting hold of financial self-sufficiency may lead MFIs to drift away from their original social mission of serving the very poor, commonly known as mission drift in microfinance which is still a controversial issue. This study aims at addressing the concerns for mission drift in microfinance in a performance analysis framework. Chapter 1 deals with theoretical background, motivation and objectives of the topic. Then the study explores the validity of three major and related present-day concerns. Chapter 2 explores the impact of profitability on outreach-quality in MFIs, commonly known as mission drift, using a unique panel database that contains 4-9 years’ observations from 253 MFIs in 69 countries. Chapter 3 introduces factor analysis, a multivariate tool, in the process of analysing mission drift in microfinance and the exercise in this chapter demonstrates how the statistical tool of factor analysis can be utilised to examine this conjecture. In order to explore why some microfinance institutions (MFIs) perform better than others, Chapter 4 looks at factors which have an impact on several performance indicators of MFIs—profitability or sustainability, repayment status and cost indicators—based on quality-data on 353 institutions in 77 countries. The study also demonstrates whether such mission drift can be avoided while having self-sustainability. In Chapter 5 we examine the impact of capital and financing structure on the performance of microfinance institutions where estimations with instruments have been performed using a panel dataset of 782 MFIs in 92 countries for the period 2000-2007. Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the study by summarising the results from the previous chapters and suggesting some directions for future studies.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.