On the use of weather radar for mesoscale applications in northern conditions

Mesoscale weather phenomena, such as the sea breeze circulation or lake effect snow bands, are typically too large to be observed at one point, yet too small to be caught in a traditional network of weather stations. Hence, the weather radar is one of the best tools for observing, analyzing and understanding their behavior and development. A weather radar network is a complex system, which has many structural and technical features to be tuned, from the location of each radar to the number of pulses averaged in the signal processing. These design parameters have no universal optimal values, but their selection depends on the nature of the weather phenomena to be monitored as well as on the applications for which the data will be used. The priorities and critical values are different for forest fire forecasting, aviation weather service or the planning of snow ploughing, to name a few radar-based applications. The main objective of the work performed within this thesis has been to combine knowledge of technical properties of the radar systems and our understanding of weather conditions in order to produce better applications able to efficiently support decision making in service duties for modern society related to weather and safety in northern conditions. When a new application is developed, it must be tested against ground truth . Two new verification approaches for radar-based hail estimates are introduced in this thesis. For mesoscale applications, finding the representative reference can be challenging since these phenomena are by definition difficult to catch with surface observations. Hence, almost any valuable information, which can be distilled from unconventional data sources such as newspapers and holiday shots is welcome. However, as important as getting data is to obtain estimates of data quality, and to judge to what extent the two disparate information sources can be compared. The presented new applications do not rely on radar data alone, but ingest information from auxiliary sources such as temperature fields. The author concludes that in the future the radar will continue to be a key source of data and information especially when used together in an effective way with other meteorological data.

Fuel conditions and fire behavior characteristics of managed Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris forests in Finland

The objectives of this study were to analyze the impact of structural stand characteristics on ignition potential, surface fuel moisture, and fire behavior in Pinus sylvestris L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst stands in Finland and to explain stand-specific fire danger using the Canadian Fire Weather Index System and the Finnish Fire Risk Index. Additionally, the study analyzes the relationship between observed fire activity and fire weather indices at different stages of growing season. Field experiments were carried out in Pinus sylvestris or Picea abies dominated stands during fire seasons 2001 and 2002. Observations on ignition potential, fuel moisture, and fire behavior were analyzed in relation to stand structure and the outputs of the Finnish and Canadian fire weather indices. Seasonal patterns of fire activity were examined based on national fire statistics 1996 2003, effective temperature sum, and the fire weather indices. Point fire ignition potential was highest in Pinus clear-cuts and lowest in closed Picea stands. Moss-dominated surface fuels were driest in clear-cut and sapling stage stands and presented the highest moisture content under closed Picea canopy. Pinus sylvestris stands carried fire under a wide range of fire weather conditions under which Picea abies stands failed to sustain fire. In the national fire records, the daily number of reported ignitions presented its highest value during late fire season whereas the daily area burned peaked most substantially during early season. The fire weather indices correlated significantly with ignition potential and fuel moisture but were unable to explain fire behavior in the experimental fires. During the initial and final stages of the growing season, fire activity was disconnected from weather-based fire danger ratings. Information on stand structure and season stage would benefit the assessment of fire danger in Finnish forest landscape for fire suppression and controlled burning purposes.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

Living on voles - plastic life of the Ural owl

Individuals face variable environmental conditions during their life. This may be due to migration, dispersion, environmental changes or, for example, annual variation in weather conditions. Genetic adaptation to a novel environment happens through natural selection. Phenotypic plasticity allows, however, a quick individual response to a new environment. Phenotypic plasticity may also be beneficial for individual if the environment is highly variable. For example, eggs are costly to produce. If the food conditions vary significantly between breeding seasons it is useful to be able to adjust the clutch and egg size according to the food abundance. In this thesis I use Ural owl vole system to study phenotypic plasticity and natural selection using a number of reproduction related traits. The Ural owl (Strix uralensis) is a long-lived and sedentary species. The reproduction and survival of the Ural owl, in fact their whole life, is tied to the dramatically fluctuating vole densities. Ural owls do not cause vole cycles but they have to adjust their behaviour to the rather predictable population fluctuations of these small mammals. Earlier work with this system has shown that Ural owl laying date and clutch size are plastic in relation to vole abundance. Further, individual laying date clutch size reaction norms have been shown to vary in the amount of plasticity. My work extends the knowledge of natural selection and phenotypic plasticity in traits related to reproduction. I show that egg size, timing of the onset of incubation and nest defense aggressiveness are plastic traits with fitness consequences for the Ural owl. Although egg size is in general thought to be a fixed characteristic of an individual, this highly heritable trait in the Ural owl is also remarkably plastic in relation to the changes in vole numbers, Ural owls are laying the largest eggs when their prey is most abundant. Timing of the onset of incubation is an individual-specific property and plastic in relation to clutch size. Timing of incubation is an important underlying cause for asynchronous hatching in birds. Asynchronous hatching is beneficial to offspring survival in Ural owl. Hence, timing of the onset of incubation may also be under natural selection. Ural owl females also adjust their nest defense aggressiveness according to the vole dynamics, being most aggressive in years when they produce the largest broods. Individual females show different levels of nest defense aggressiveness. Aggressiveness is positively correlated with the phenotypic plasticity of aggressiveness. As elevated nest defense aggressiveness is selected for, it may promote the plasticity of aggressive nest defense behaviour. All the studied traits are repeatable or heritable on individual level, and their expression is either directly or indirectly sensitive to changes in vole numbers. My work considers a number of important fitness-related traits showing phenotypic plasticity in all of them. Further, in two chapters I show that there is individual variation in the amount of plasticity exhibited. These findings on plasticity in reproduction related traits suggest that variable environments indeed promote plasticity.

From the river to the open sea - a critical life phase of young Atlantic salmon migrating from the Simojoki river

Long-term monitoring data collected from wild smolts of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Simojoki river, northern Finland, were used in studying the relationships between the smolt size and age, smolt and postsmolt migration, environmental conditions and postsmolt survival. The onset of the smolt run was significantly dependent on the rising water temperature and decreasing discharge of the river in the spring. The mean length of smolts migrating early in the season was commonly higher and the mean age always older than among smolts migrating later. Many of the smolts migrating early in the season and almost all smolts migrating later had started their new growth in spring in the river before their sea entry. Among postsmolts, the time required for emigration from the estuary was dependent on the sea surface temperature (SST) off the river, being significantly shorter in years with warm than cold sea temperatures. After leaving the estuary, the postsmolts migrated southwards along the eastern coast of the northern Gulf of Bothnia, the geographical distribution of the tag recoveries coinciding with the warm thermal zone in spring in the coastal area. After arriving in the southern Gulf of Bothnia in late summer the postsmolts mostly migrated near the western coast, reaching the Baltic Main Basin in late autumn. Until the early 1990s there was only a weak positive association between smolt length and postsmolt survival. However, following a subsequent decrease in the mean smolt size, a significant positive dependence was observed between smolt size and the reported recapture rate of tagged salmon. The differences in recapture rates between smolts tagged during the first and second half of the annual migration season were insignificant, indicating that the seasonal variation in smolt size and age seem to be too small to affect survival. Among the climatic factors examined, the summer SST in the Gulf of Bothnia was most clearly related to the survival of the wild postsmolts. Postsmolt survival appeared to be highest in years when the SST in June in the Bothnian Bay varied between 9 and 12 ºC. In addition, the survival of wild postsmolts showed a significant positive dependence on the SST in July in the Bothnian Sea, but not on the abundance of the prey fish (0+ herring, Clupea harengus and sprat, Sprattus sprattus) in the Bothnian Sea and in the Baltic Main Basin. The results suggest, that if the incidence of extreme weather conditions were to increase due to climatic changes, it would probably reduce the postsmolt survival of wild salmon populations. For improving the performance of hatchery-reared smolts, it could be useful to examine opportunities to produce smolts that are in their smolt traits and abilities more similar to the wild smolts described in this thesis.

Suokasvillisuuden vaste muuttuvaan ilmastoon: kokeellinen tutkimus kuivumisen vaikutuksesta

Soilla on merkittävä rooli ilmastonmuutoksen hillitsemisessä suuren hiilivarastonsa sekä ekosysteemin ja ilmakehän välisen kaasunvaihdon ansiosta. Ilmastonmuutoksen ennustetaan vaikuttavan suokasvillisuuteen ja suon toimintaan epäsuorasti. Vedenpinnan ennustetaan laskevan 14–21 cm johtuen kasveista ja avoimilta pinnoilta tapahtuvan haihdunnan lisääntymisestä lämpötilan noustessa, mikäli sadanta ei lisäänny. Aiemmat vedenpinnan laskun jälkeistä kasvillisuutta seuranneet tutkimukset ovat osoittaneet, että putkilokasvit hyötyvät alhaisemmasta vedenpinnan tasosta ja että kuljuun sopeutuneet rahkasammalet kärsivät kuivuneista oloista. Kasvillisuuden runsaussuhteiden muuttumisen lisäksi kasviyhteisöjen monimuotoisuus vähenee. Erityisen herkkiä vedenpinnan laskulle ovat olleet välipinta- ja kuljurahkasammalet ja sarat. Funktionaalisten kasviryhmien vasteiden selvittämiksesi käytettiin BACI (before-after-control-impact) –tutkimusotetta. Tutkimuksessa oli kolme verrokkialaa ja kolme käsittelyalaa, joissa vedenpintaa oli laskettu 14–21 senttimetriin. Lisäksi vertailukohdaksi tutkimuksessa oli mukana kolme alaa, joissa oli tehty metsäojitus n. 50 vuotta sitten. Nämä toistot sijaitsivat meso-, oligo ombrotrofisilla suotyypeillä Oriveden Lakkasuolla. Kasvillisuus kartoitettiin ja vedenpinnat mitattiin aloilta ennen käsittelyä vuonna 2000 sekä vuosina 2001–2003 ja 2009. Aineisto analysoitiin TWINSPAN- (PC-Ord), PRC ja DCA (CANOCO)-monimuuttujamenetelmillä. Tulokset osoittivat, että verrokki- ja käsittelyalat olivat samanlaisia lähtökohdiltaan, joten niitä voitiin käsittelyn jälkeen verrata toisiinsa. Kasvillisuuden rakenne vaihteli vuosien välillä myös verrokkialoilla, mikä osoittaa kasvien sopeutumiskyvyn muuttuviin sääoloihin (lämpötila, sademäärä). Vuosi 2003 erottui tutkimuksessa alhaisella vedenpinnantasolla, mutta toisaalta myös ainavihantien varpujen suuren peittävyyden osalta. Vuoteen 2009 mennessä kasvillisuuden erityisesti sarojen peittävyys väheni. Ravinteikkaimmilla toistoilla kasvillisuuden vasteet vaikuttivat olevan vahvemmat kuin vähäravinteisilla toistoilla. Kasviryhmistä kulju- ja välipintasammalilla oli vahvimmat vasteetvedenpinnan laskuun ja mätäslajeilla heikoimmat. Tulosten mukaan kasviryhmien vasteet vaihtelevat riippuen tarkasteltavasta aikajaksosta: ensimmäiset kolme vuotta käsittelyn jälkeen suo oli häiriötilassa ja vasta sen jälkeen kasvillisuus sopeutui muuttuneisiin oloihin.

Mehiläisten (Apis mellifera) kukkavierailut mansikalla (Fragaria x ananassa) ja vadelmalla (Rubus idaeus) sekä kukkavierailuihin vaikuttavat tekijät

Hyönteispölytys lisää monien ristipölytteisten viljelykasvien siemensatoa sekä parantaa sadon laatua. Marjakasveilla, kuten mansikalla ja vadelmalla marjojen koko suurenee sekä niiden laatu paranee onnistuneen pölytyksen seurauksena. Aiempien havaintojen mukaan mansikan kukat eivät pääsääntöisesti houkuttele mehiläisiä, kun taas vadelma on yksi mehiläisten pääsatokasveista. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli selvittää, miten tehokkaasti mehiläiset vierailevat mansikalla sekä vadelmalla, keskittyen kukkakohtaisiin käynteihin tuntia kohti. Mehiläisiä voidaan käyttää Gliocladium catenulatum-vektoreina torjuttaessa mansikan ja vadelman harmaahometta (Botrytis cinerea). Kukkavierailujen perusteella arvioidaan, onko vektorilevitys riittävän tehokas torjumaan harmaahometta ja miten hyvin mehiläisiä voidaan käyttää pölytyspalveluihin, etenkin mansikalla. Havainnot kerättiin kuudelta eri tilalta Sisä-Savosta kesällä 2007. Kukkavierailuja laskettiin mansikan ja vadelman kukinnan aikana erilaisissa sääolosuhteissa, eri kellonaikoina ja eri etäisyyksillä mehiläispesistä. Kukat valittiin satunnaisesti, ja valintaperusteena oli kukan avonaisuus. Tarkkailuaika riippui mehiläisten lentoaktiivisuudesta. Mansikan koko havaintojakson keskiarvoksi tuli 1,75 käyntiä kukkaa kohti tunnissa. Vadelmalla vastaava luku oli 4,27, joten keskiarvojen perusteella vadelma oli houkuttelevampi kuin mansikka. Kasvukauden vaiheella ei ollut eroja vierailuihin kummallakaan kasvilla, mutta vuorokaudenajan suhteen vierailuja oli enemmän aamupäivällä kuin iltapäivällä. Lämpötila korreloi positiivisesti vierailutiheyden kanssa kummallakin kasvilla. Sääolosuhteet rajoittivat havaintojen keräämistä ja kesä oli erittäin sateinen. Mehiläiset vierailivat kukissa riittävästi haastavissakin sääolosuhteissa niin, että harmaahometorjunta onnistui. Vektorilevitystä suunnitellessa, etenkin mansikalla, tulee ottaa huomioon pesien sijoittelu sekä riittävä lukumäärä. Pesien ravinnontarpeen tulee olla suuri, jotta mehiläiset keräisivät ravintoa kukista mahdollisimman tehokkaasti. Pesiin voidaan lisätä tarvittaessa avosikiöitä tai poistaa siitepölyvarastoja ravinnonkeruuaktiivisuuden lisäämiseksi. Lisätutkimusta tarvitaan pesien sijoittelun, kilpailevien kasvien sekä mansikkalajikkeiden houkuttelevuuden vaikutuksesta vierailutiheyteen. Suomalaisten mansikkalajikkeiden meden sekä siitepölyneritystä olisi myös hyvä selvittää.

Charred seeds in Mikkeli Orijärvi : A study of subsistence strategies of an Iron Age settlement in East Finland

In this study the over 350 macrofossil samples, containing over 2300 charred plant remains from an Iron Age settlement containing fossil fields in Mikkeli Orijärvi Kihlinpelto, were studied archaeobotanically. The aim was to get more information about subsistence strategies, especially agriculture and study differences in the plant combinations in the different structures and use the archaeobotanical theory to interpret these structures. The methodological question was to study the taphonomy of the charred plant material. The results gave a diverse impression of the agriculture and subsistence strategies of the settlement in Orijärvi, where barley was the most important cereal with rye, wheat and oat cultivated as minor crops. The arable weed assemblage indicates that the fields were situated in different kinds of soils and the crops were cultivated when different kind of weather conditions were prevailing. Ergot was found with the cereals, and it was growing on some of the arable crops and it also indicates wet climate. Hemp and flax were cultivated and wild plants were collected. The meadow and wetland plants found in the material derive most probably from animal fodder. Tubers of bulbous oat-grass were interesting, because they are usually found in graves. Comparison with other Iron Age settlements and graves indicates that the plant material found from the ancient field layers derives most probably from dwellings and graves, which were taken into cultivation.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.

Timotein (Phleum pratense ssp. pratense L.) alkuperän vaikutus kylmänkestävyyteen, vernalisaatiovaatimukseen sekä kasvuun ja kehitykseen

Nurmiheinien merkitys maailmanlaajuisesti on merkittävä, sillä noin 69 % maapallon peltopinta-alasta on pysyvää laidunmaata tai niittyä. Suomessa nurmien osuus on noin 29 %, ja tuotanto perustuu pääosin intensiiviseen säilörehuntuotantoon. Yleisin nurmiheinälaji Suomessa on timotei (Phleum pratense ssp. pratense L.). Timotei on talvenkestävä ja soveltuu siksi pohjoisiin kasvuoloihin. Timoteilajikkeita jalostettaessa pohjoista alkuperää olevia vanhempaislinjoja käytetään hyvän talvenkestävyyden varmistamiseksi, eteläisiä tavoiteltaessa nopeaa kasvurytmiä. Ilmaston muutoksen ennustetaan lisäävän erilaisia äärioloja kuten myrskyjä ja sateita. Vuorokauden keskilämpötila nousee ja kasvukausi pidentyy. Lisäksi talvet muuttuvat sateisemmiksi. Muutokset näkyvät erityisesti pohjoisissa kasvuympäristöissä. Tutkimuksessa haluttiinkin selvittää eri alkuperää edustavien timoteilajikkeiden ja linjojen kylmänkestävyyttä, kasvu-, ja kehitysnopeutta sekä vernalisaation vaikutusta. Lisäksi tutkittiin syysviljojen vernalisaatiovasteen mittaamiseen käytettyjen menetelmien soveltuvuutta nurmille. Tutkimukseen kuului kaksivuotinen peltokoe sekä kasvatuskaappikoe. Vernalisaatio nopeutti timotein kasvua ja kehitystä. Tutkimuksen perusteella eteläistä alkuperää olevilla lajikkeilla kasvu- ja kukintavalmius oli olemassa ilman vernalisaatiota. Pohjoisilla lajikkeilla oli suurempi vernalisaatiovaste ja niiden kukkiminen ja kasvu nopeutui vernalisaation myötä. Vernalisaatiolla oli vaikutusta myös kasvuston rakenteeseen. Generatiivisten versojen määrä lisääntyi vernalisaation myötä, kun taas vegetatiivisten versojen määrä väheni. Kylmänkestävyys oli tutkimuksen perusteella riippuvainen syksyn karaistumisjakson pituudesta sekä jakson lämpösummasta (FH-COLD). Korkea keskilämpötila ja lyhyt karaistumisjakso heikensivät kylmänkestävyyttä. Vastaavasti karaistumiskauden lämpötilan ollessa välillä 0 °C:ta ja + 5 °C:ta ja jakson pituuden kasvaessa kylmänkestävyys lisääntyi. Tutkimuksen perusteella vernalisaatiolla oli selvä vaikutus timotein kasvuun ja kehitykseen. Pohjoista alkuperää olevat timoteit reagoivat vernalisaatioon eteläisiä enemmän. Osa pohjoisista linjoista vaati vernalisaation generatiivisten versojen muodostumiseen. Syysviljojen vernalisaatiovasteen mittausmenetelmät soveltuvat osin myös puhtaiden timoteilajikkeiden vernalisaation seurantaan.

The Radiation, snow characteristics and albedo at summit (RASCALS) expedition report

The RASCALS expedition spent over three weeks at the Summit camp research station near the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet during polar summer 2010. During this time, detailed measurements of the physical and optical properties of Arctic perennial snow were carried out concurrently with snow albedo and reflectance measurements. Favorable weather conditions during the campaign enabled the collection of a large dataset on Arctic snow albedo and associated quantities for use in developing and validating remote sensing algorithms for snow albedo using satellites. This report provides a description of the measurements and conditions during the campaign. RASCALS-retkikunnan tehtävä oli tutkia Grönlannin mannerjäätikön lumen fysikaalisia ja optisia ominaisuuksia sekä Auringon valon vuorovaikutusta lumen kanssa. Retikunta vietti hieman yli kolme viikkoa mannerjäätikön keskellä sijaitsevalla Summit Camp-tutkimusasemalla tehden mittauksia. Sääolot suosivat kampanjaa, jonka seurauksena onnistuttiin keräämään laaja ja monipuolinen tietoaineisto mannerjäätikön lumen pintakerroksesta ja eritoten lumen heijastavuuden (albedon)käyttäytymisestä. Aineisto on hyödyllinen kehitettäessä ja varmennettaessa lumen albedon kaukokartoitusmenetelmiä satelliiteilla.

Helsingin lämpösaareke ajallisena ja paikallisena ilmiönä

The urban heat island phenomenon is the most well-known all-year-round urban climate phenomenon. It occurs in summer during the daytime due to the short-wave radiation from the sun and in wintertime, through anthropogenic heat production. In summertime, the properties of the fabric of city buildings determine how much energy is stored, conducted and transmitted through the material. During night-time, when there is no incoming short-wave radiation, all fabrics of the city release the energy in form of heat back to the urban atmosphere. In wintertime anthropogenic heating of buildings and traffic deliver energy into the urban atmosphere. The initial focus of Helsinki urban heat island was on the description of the intensity of the urban heat island (Fogelberg 1973, Alestalo 1975). In this project our goal was to carry out as many measurements as possible over a large area of Helsinki to give a long term estimate of the Helsinki urban heat island. Helsinki is a city with 550 000 inhabitants and located on the north shore of Finnish Bay of the Baltic Sea. Initially, comparison studies against long-term weather station records showed that our regular, but weekly, sampling of observations adequately describe the Helsinki urban heat island. The project covered an entire seasonal cycle over the 12 months from July 2009 to June 2010. The measurements were conducted using a moving platform following microclimatological traditions. Tuesday was selected as the measuring day because it was the only weekday during the one year time span without any public holidays. Once a week, two set of measurements, in total 104, were conducted in the heterogeneous temperature conditions of Helsinki city centre. In the more homogeneous suburban areas, one set of measurements was taken every second week, to give a total of 52.The first set of measurements took place before noon, and the second 12 hours, just prior to midnight. Helsinki Kaisaniemi weather station was chosen as the reference station. This weather station is located in a large park in the city centre of Helsinki. Along the measurement route, 336 fixed points were established, and the monthly air temperature differences to Kaisaniemi were calculated to produce monthly and annual maps. The monthly air temperature differences were interpolated 21.1 km by 18.1 km horizontal grid with 100 metre resolution residual kriging method. The following independent variables for the kriging interpolation method were used: topographical height, portion of sea area, portion of trees, fraction of built-up and not built-up area, volumes of buildings, and population density. The annual mean air temperature difference gives the best representation of the Helsinki urban heat island effect- Due to natural variability of weather conditions during the measurement campaign care must be taken when interpretation the results for the monthly values. The main results of this urban heat island research project are: a) The city centre of Helsinki is warmer than its surroundings, both on a monthly main basis, and for the annual mean, however, there are only a few grid points, 46 out of 38 191, which display a temperature difference of more than 1K. b) If the monthly spatial variation is air temperature differences is small, then usually the temperature difference between the city and the surroundings is also small. c) Isolated large buildings and suburban centres create their own individual heat island. d) The topographical influence on air temperature can generally be neglected for the monthly mean, but can be strong under certain weather conditions.

Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

On the behaviour of some physical parameterization methods in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models

Modern-day weather forecasting is highly dependent on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as the main data source. The evolving state of the atmosphere with time can be numerically predicted by solving a set of hydrodynamic equations, if the initial state is known. However, such a modelling approach always contains approximations that by and large depend on the purpose of use and resolution of the models. Present-day NWP systems operate with horizontal model resolutions in the range from about 40 km to 10 km. Recently, the aim has been to reach operationally to scales of 1 4 km. This requires less approximations in the model equations, more complex treatment of physical processes and, furthermore, more computing power. This thesis concentrates on the physical parameterization methods used in high-resolution NWP models. The main emphasis is on the validation of the grid-size-dependent convection parameterization in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and on a comprehensive intercomparison of radiative-flux parameterizations. In addition, the problems related to wind prediction near the coastline are addressed with high-resolution meso-scale models. The grid-size-dependent convection parameterization is clearly beneficial for NWP models operating with a dense grid. Results show that the current convection scheme in HIRLAM is still applicable down to a 5.6 km grid size. However, with further improved model resolution, the tendency of the model to overestimate strong precipitation intensities increases in all the experiment runs. For the clear-sky longwave radiation parameterization, schemes used in NWP-models provide much better results in comparison with simple empirical schemes. On the other hand, for the shortwave part of the spectrum, the empirical schemes are more competitive for producing fairly accurate surface fluxes. Overall, even the complex radiation parameterization schemes used in NWP-models seem to be slightly too transparent for both long- and shortwave radiation in clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, simple cloud correction functions are tested. In case of longwave radiation, the empirical cloud correction methods provide rather accurate results, whereas for shortwave radiation the benefit is only marginal. Idealised high-resolution two-dimensional meso-scale model experiments suggest that the reason for the observed formation of the afternoon low level jet (LLJ) over the Gulf of Finland is an inertial oscillation mechanism, when the large-scale flow is from the south-east or west directions. The LLJ is further enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. A three-dimensional HIRLAM experiment, with a 7.7 km grid size, is able to generate a similar LLJ flow structure as suggested by the 2D-experiments and observations. It is also pointed out that improved model resolution does not necessary lead to better wind forecasts in the statistical sense. In nested systems, the quality of the large-scale host model is really important, especially if the inner meso-scale model domain is small.