Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.

Exploring Marketing in Micro Firms

Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to explore the practice of marketing in micro firms. Which are the challenges micro firms encounter and how do they handle them? Methodology - The research methodology is based on the theory-in-use approach (Zaltman, Heffring & LeMasters 1982) in order to inductively explore the practice of marketing in micro firms. The empirical findings rest on ten case studies, where data has been generated through repeated interactions with each case. Findings - The empirical findings show that micro firms handle their marketing challenges in a distinctive manner, by creatively using available resources and network relations. Marketing in micro firms is largely about a long-term, gradual development of a position on the market. This process we label germinal marketing. Two key dimensions of germinal marketing were identified: “earning your position” and “being your brand”. Research limitations and implications - The findings rest on an explorative study consisting of ten cases and the general applicability of the results need to be validated by further studies. These cases are however sufficient to illuminate the need for further research into the area. Value of the paper - The value of the paper is twofold. First, it expands the theory-in-use approach, and presents a research method for successful inductive empirical studies of small firm phenomena. Secondly, the paper widens our understanding of the marketing reality and practice of micro firms, identifying new dimensions of marketing and revealing the strategic implications of ordinary business activities.

Dimensionality of quality from a customer perspective in the wood industry

The research analyzes product quality from a customer perspective in the case of the wood products industry. Of specific interest is to understand better how environmental quality is perceived from a customer perspective. The empirical material used comprises four data-sets from Finland, Germany and the UK, collected during 1992 2004. The methods consist of a set of quantitative statistical analyses. The results indicate that perceived quality from a customer perspective can be presented using a multidimensional and hierarchical construct with tangible and intangible dimensions, that is common to different markets and products. This applies in the case of wood products but also more generally at least for some other construction materials. For wood products, tangible product quality has two main sub-dimensions: technical quality and appearance. For product intangibles, a few main quality dimensions seem be detectable: Quality of intangibles related to the physical product, such as environmental issues and product-related information, supplier-related characteristics, and service and sales personnel behavior. Environmental quality and information are often perceived as being inter-related. Technical performance and appearance are the most important considerations for customers in the case of wood products. Organizational customers in particular also clearly consider certain intangible quality dimensions to be important, such as service and supplier reliability. The high technical quality may be considered as a license to operate , but product appearance and intangible quality provide potential for differentiation for attracting certain market segments. Intangible quality issues are those where Nordic suppliers underperform in comparison to their Central-European competitors on the important German markets. Environmental quality may not have been used to its full extent to attract customers. One possibility is to increase the availability of the environment-related information, or to develop environment-related product characteristics to also provide some individual benefits. Information technology provides clear potential to facilitate information-based quality improvements, which was clearly recognized by Finnish forest industry already in the early 1990s. The results indeed indicate that wood products markets are segmented with regard to quality demands

Common past, divided memories: historical memory of the Polish minority members in Lithuania

The Master’s thesis examines historical memory of the Polish minority members in Lithuania with regard to how their interpretation of the common Polish-Lithuanian history reiterates or differs from the official Polish and Lithuanian narratives conveyed by the school textbooks. History teaching in high schools carries a crucial state-supported role of “identity building policies” – it maintains a national narrative of memory, which might be exclusive to minorities and their peculiar understanding of history. Lithuanians Poles, in this regard, represent a national minority, which is exposed to two conflicting national narratives of the common past – Polish and Lithuanian. As members of the Polish nation, their understanding of the common Polish-Lithuanian history is conditioned by the Polish historical narrative, acquired as part of the collective memory of the family and/or different minority organizations. On the other hand, they encounter Lithuanian historical narrative of the Polish-Lithuanian past throughout the secondary school history education, where the curriculum, even if taught in Polish, largely represents the Lithuanian point of view. The concept of collective memory is utilized to refer to collective representations of national memory (i.e. publicly articulated narratives and images of collective past in history textbooks) as well as to socially framed individual memories (i.e. historical memory of minority members, where individual remembering is framed by the social context of their identity). The thesis compares the official national historical narratives in Lithuania and Poland, as conveyed by the Polish and Lithuanian history textbooks. The consequent analysis of qualitative interviews with the Polish minority members in Lithuania offers insights into historical memory of Lithuanian Poles and its relation to the official Polish and Lithuanian national narratives of the common past. Qualitative content analysis is applied in both parts of the analysis. The narratives which emerge from the interview data could be broadly grouped into two segments. First, a more pronounced view on the past combines the following elements: i) emphasis on the value of multicultural and diverse past of Lithuania, ii) contestation of “Lithuanocentricity” of the Lithuanian narrative and iii) rejection of the term “occupation”, based on the cultural presuppositions – the dominant position of Polish culture and language in the Vilnius region, symbolic belonging and “Lithuanianness” of the local Poles. While the opposition to the term of “occupation” is in accord with the official Polish narrative conveyed by the textbooks, the former two elements do not neatly adhere to either Polish or Lithuanian textbook narratives. They should rather be considered as an expression of claims for inclusion of plural pasts into Lithuanian collective memory and hence as claims for symbolic enfranchisement into the Lithuanian “imagined community”. The second strand of views, on the other hand, does not exclude assertions about the historically dominant position of Polish culture in Lithuania, but at the same time places more emphasis on the political and historical continuity of the Lithuanian state and highlights a long-standing symbolic connectedness of Vilnius and Lithuania, thus, striking a middle way between the Polish and Lithuanian interpretations of the past.

Puunoston kehittäminen Stora Enso Metsän Helsingin palvelupisteessä

The operation environment in the roundwood trade in Finland in the 1990’s include several changes. They are changes in the structure of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) ownership, forest taxation, in forest legislation, in price recommendation agreement, diminishing resources of forestry extension services, etc. At the same time, the roundwood demand has been rising. All these developments cause uncertainty in wood procurement organisations, and call for research to find out how to adapt into the changing environment. The objective of this study is to produce information for roundwood purchasing planning and cus-tomer satisfaction management to be used by Stora Enso Metsä Customer Service, Helsinki. For this pur-pose, data needs to be gathered about the urban NIPFs and their forest estates, behaviour related to forestry and timber-selling, customer satisfaction in their latest timber selling transaction, and their opinions about Enso’s new customer service office and its service concept. To fulfil the objective of the study, a NIPF -owner -survey (N=1064, response rate 39,7%) was con-ducted in October 1998-January 1999. The sample was made on the basis of the marketing database of Stora Enso Oyj Forest Customer Service in Helsinki. In planning the frame of reference of the empirical study, the model of service quality by Grönroos was applied. The following aspects were included in the 7-page questionnaire: demographic, sosio-economic and forest estate background, relation to the forest service supply, behaviour related to forestry, timber-selling motives and behaviour, last contact organisation and its image in forestry business, expectations and percep-tions in the latest timber-selling transactions, and behavioural intentions. The results revealed that the share of women, pensioners and academically educated people among forest owners was quite high. The majority of the forest estates of the metropolitan forest owners were situ-ated in the provinces of South Finland and East Finland. The average forest estate area was considerably smaller than in a previous study. Economic and recreational objectives were most important in the use of forests. Forest Associations were involved in half of the roundwood sales transactions of the respondents in the metropolitan area. The wood quantity of transactions was considerably higher than the average in the whole country. Bank-organised forest-related activities, taxation infos and trips to the forest were the most popular activities. Among the services, silvicultural advices were needed mostly and stub treatment least. Brochure material related to stumpage timber sales and taxation were considered most important compared to material related to delivery sales. The service expectations were at highest for women and they were less satisfied with the service than men. 2nd and 3rd generation residents of the metropolitan area thought about the new customer service concept more positively than the 1st generation residents. Internet users under 60 years thought more positively about new satellite picture-based woodlot search concept. Cross-tabulation of factor scores against background variables indicated that women with relatively low education level a greater need to sell roundwood than entrepreneurs, white-collar workers and directors, and Internet users. Suspiciousness towards timber procurement organisations was relatively strong among women and those whose forest income share of the total income was either null or over 20 %. The average customer satisfaction score was negative in all nine questions. Statistical differences be-tween different companies did not exist in the average satisfaction scores. Stora Enso’s Helsinki forest cus-tomer service could choose the ability to purchase all timber grades as its competitive advantage. Out of nine service dimension included in the questionnaire, in this particular service dimension, Enso’s Helsinki forest customer service’s score exceeded most all organisations’ average customer satisfaction score. On the basis of importance – performance matrix, advice and quidance could have been provided more to the forest owners in their latest timber–selling transaction.

”Waxaa i bartay hooyaday waawa u muhiim naaska caruurta.” Äitini opetti, että rintamaito on tärkeää lapselle. Osallistava tutkimus auktoritatiivisen tiedon omaksumisesta somalikulttuuritaustaisten naisten imetyskäytännöissä.

Suomessa asuvat somalitaustaiset maahanmuuttajaäidit luopuvat imetyksestä ja ruokkivat vauvojaan äidinmaidonkorvikkeella, vaikka somalikulttuurissa arvostetaan imetystä. Tuen ja tiedon puutetta on arveltu syyksi pulloruokinnan yleisyyteen. Tarkoituksenani on tutkia osallistavia menetelmiä käyttäen, minkälaisia imetykseen liittyviä tietojärjestelmiä somaliäidit pitävät auktoritatiivisina eli arvovaltaisina. Tarkastelen tiedon auktoritatiivisuutta etnografisten esimerkkien valossa hyödyntäen Brigitte Jordanin auktoritatiivisen tiedon käsitettä. Tutkin Jean Pierre Olivier de Sardanin teorian avulla, kuinka paikalliset populaarit tietojärjestelmät kohtaavat tieteellis-teknisen tiedon kehityksen kontekstissa. Tutkin myös, kuinka somaliäitien imetystietojärjestelmät kohtaavat suomalaisen terveydenhoitojärjestelmän edustaman imetystiedon. Osallistavien menetelmien tarkoituksena on saada heikkojen ja sorrettujen yhteisöjen ääni kuuluviin. Tutkimukseni tiedonantajina on seitsemäntoista somalimaahanmuuttajaäitiä ja yksi suomalainen äitiys- ja lastenneuvolan terveydenhoitaja. Käytän tiedonkeruumenetelminä puolistrukturoituja teemahaastatteluja, jonka lisäksi teen osallistuvaa havainnointia ja osallistavia menetelmiä kolmessa ryhmähaastattelutilanteessa. Käytän Rapi Rurad Appraisal (RRA) –menetelmiä, kuten Venn-diagrammia ja pisteytystä. Tutkimukseni tulos on, että somaliäitien imetykseen liittyvä tieto koostuu kolmesta tietojärjestelmästä, joita ovat sukuverkostoista tuleva perinteinen tietotaito, islaminuskon terveystieto sekä suomalaisen terveydenhoitojärjestelmän tieto. Näistä eri tietolähteistä tuleva imetystieto ei ole sisällöltään ristiriidassa. Imetykseen liittyvät vaikeudet ovat käytännön ongelmiin, kuten sukuverkoston hajoamiseen ja suomalaisen terveydenhoitojärjestelmän kanssa kommunikointiin liittyviä.

Treatment of illicit opioid and γ-hydroxybutyrate overdose by Helsinki emergency medical services

Aims: To examine the characteristics, incidence, treatment and outcome of presumed opioid, γ-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) and γ-butyrolactone (GBL) overdoses involving users of illicit drugs in Helsinki. GHB/GBL were included in this study, despite not being opioids, due to the relative ease with which they can cause potentially fatal respiratory depression. The incidence and time interval of recurrent opioid toxicity after prehospital administration of naloxone, an opioid antagonist, was studied in presumed heroin overdose patients. Naloxone has been reported to have many adverse effects and the effects of naloxone administered during an opioid overdose on the cardiovascular system and catecholamine levels in piglets were studied. Materials and methods: Patients included in these published retrospective studies were from the following time periods: Study I: 1995-2002, II: 1997-2000, III: 1995-2000, V: 2006-2007. Presumed opioid overdose patients were examined in studies I, II and III. GHB/GBL overdoses among injecting drug users was examined in study V. Recurrent opioid toxicity after prehospital naloxone administration in heroin overdose patients was examined in study III. The effects of naloxone (80 μg/kg i.v.) on the cardiovascular system and catecholamine levels administered during morphine overdose (8mg/kg i.v.) and under propofol anesthesia with spontaneous breathing were studied in eight piglets (IV). In this thesis, previously unpublished data on the incidence of opioid overdose between 2001-2007 and comparison of the characteristics of buprenorphine and heroin overdose patients encountered in 1995-2005 are also included. Results: Helsinki Emergency Medical Service (EMS) ambulances were dispatched annually to 34,153- 45,118 calls from 1995 to 2007. Of them, 7-8% were coded as intoxications or overdoses. During this time, 436 patients were treated by the EMS for presumed opioid overdose. The peak incidence of opioid overdoses was in the year 2000 (113 cases), after which they declined to 6-26 cases annually. The annual incidence of buprenorphine related overdoses increased from 4 (4% of opioid overdoses) in the year 2000 to 8 (30% of opioid overdoses) in 2007. The annual number of GHB related overdose patients treated by Helsinki EMS increased from 21 to 73 between 2004-2007. There appeared to be a peak in the incidence of both GHB/GBL and opioid related overdoses on Saturdays. Characteristics of opioid overdose patients The median age of opioid overdose patients was 28 years (22;33, 25- and 75-percentiles), and 84% were male. Buprenorphine overdose patients had more polydrug, such as alcohol and/or benzodiazepines, use in comparison with heroin overdose patients, 70% versus 33%, respectively. Severe respiratory depression was reported less often with buprenorphine overdoses compared to heroin overdoses, in 67.0% versus 85.4%, respectively. Outcome of heroin overdose patients with cardiac arrest Ninety four patients suffered cardiac arrest due to acute drug poisoning/overdose and were thus considered for resuscitation. Resuscitation was attempted in 72 cases. Cardiac arrest was caused by heroin overdose for 19 patients of which three (16%) were discharged alive. Other agents also induced cardiac arrest in 53 patients, of which six (11%) were discharged alive. The arrest was either EMS witnessed or occurring after the emergency call for all survivors of heroin induced cardiac arrest. Characteristics of GHB/GBL overdose patients The records of 100 GHB/GBL related overdose patients from 2006-2007 were retrieved. The median age of GHB/GBL overdose patients encountered on weekend nights was 24 years (22;27, 25- and 75-percentiles) and 49% were male. Polydrug use was reported in 62-80% of the cases. Thirty nine patients were encountered on Friday-Saturday or Saturday-Sunday night between 11 pm-6 am. The remaining sixty one patients were outside this time frame. There was a statistically significant difference between these two groups in history of chronic injecting drug use (33% vs. 59%, respectively, p=0.012). Recurrent heroin toxicity after prehospital naloxone administration Study III included 145 presumed heroin overdose patients. After prehospital care, 84 patients refused further care and were not transported to an Emergency Department (ED). Seventy one (85%) of them were administered naloxone by the EMS. During a 12-h follow up period, none of these patients developed severe recurrent opioid toxicity. The remaining 61 patients were transported to an ED. Prior to transportation, 52 (85%) patients were administered naloxone by the EMS. Fifteen of them were administered naloxone also in the ED and recurrent opioid toxicity was evident either on arrival at the ED or shortly thereafter. Prehospital naloxone was administered either intravenously, intramuscularly (i.m.) or subcutaneously (s.c.). There was a tendency for more frequent recurrent heroin toxicity among the patients with only intravenous administration of prehospital naloxone (13/36) compared with the patients with intramuscular or subcutaneous prehospital naloxone (2/16), p=0.106. The effects of naloxone on the cardiovascular system and catecholamine levels in piglets The administration of morphine to piglets resulted in an obvious respiratory depression, which was reversed by naloxone. Two severely hypoxemic piglets developed cardiac arrest after naloxone administration. In the other six animals, the administration of naloxone did not provoke arrhythmias, cardiac ischemia or visible evidence of pulmonary edema. There was a statistically significant (p=0.012) increase in norepinephrine levels after morphine administration and before naloxone administration: from 1.9 (1.3-2.3) ng/ml at baseline, to 31.7 (8.3-83.0) ng/ml (median, 25 and 75 percentiles parentheses) after morphine administration. After the administration of naloxone, the catecholamine levels continued to increase in only one of the animals. Conclusions: The incidence of buprenorphine related overdoses increased during the study period, but was still lower in comparison to those involving heroin. Injecting drug users have also started to use GHB/GBL. While recreational drug users use GHB/GBL during weekend nights, a GHB/GBL overdose patient encounter during weekdays has a more probable history of injecting drug use. Patients with cardiac arrest after heroin overdose have a poor prognosis. It appears to be safe to leave heroin overdose patients on scene after prehospital treatment with naloxone. Although no statistically significant difference was observed, it seems prudent to administer part of the total naloxone dose s.c. or i.m. to reduce the risk of recurrent respiratory depression. If transported to an ED, an observation period of one to two hours after the last naloxone dose seems adequate. The treating physician must be vigilant, however, due to the high prevalence of polydrug use and high morbidity after non fatal heroin overdose. Furthermore, care should be taken regarding possible chronic disorders and drug rehabilitation should be addressed. In the experimental animal study, two animals developed cardiac arrest after receiving naloxone while in hypoxemia and bradycardia. Further studies are required to assess the effect of naloxone during opioid-induced hypercapnia and hypoxemia in animals addicted to opioids.

Policy evaluations for U.S. federal timber sale accounting system development.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Diakoniatyön paikka ihmisten arjessa

This study examines the diaconia work of the Finnish Evangelical Lutheran Church from the standpoint of clients. The role of diaconia work has grown since the early 1990s recession, and since it established itself as one of the actors along with other social organizations. Previous studies have described the changing role of diaconal work, especially from the standpoint of diaconia workers and co-operators. This research goes back to examine, beyond the activities of the diaconia work of everyday practices, its relations of ruling which are determining practices. The theoretical and methodological framework rises from the thinking of Dorothy E. Smith, the creator of institutional ethnography. Its origins are in feminism, Marxism, phenomenology, etnomethodology, and symbolic interactionism. However, it does not represent any school. Unlike the objectivity-based traditional sociology, institutional ethnography has its starting point in everyday life, and people s subjective experience of it. Everyday life is just a starting point, and is used to examine everyday life s experiences of hidden relations of ruling, linking people and organizations. The level of generalization is just on the relations of ruling. The research task is to examine those meanings of diaconia work which are embedded in its clients experiences. The research task is investigated with two questions: how diaconia work among its clients takes shape and what kinds of relations of ruling exist in diaconia work. The meanings of diaconia work come through an examination of the relations of ruling, which create new forms of diaconal work compared with previous studies. For the study, two kinds of data were collected: a questionnaire and ethnographic fieldwork. The first data set was collected from diaconal workers using the questionnaire. It gives background information of the diaconia work process from the standpoint of the clients. In the ethnographic study there were two phases. The first ethnographic material was collected from one local parish by observing, interviewing clients and diaconal workers and gathering documents. The number of observations was 36 customer appointments, and 29 interviews. The second ethnographic material was included as a part of the analysis, in which ruling relations in people s experiences were collected from the transcribed data. Close reading and narrative analysis are used as analysing methods. The analysis has three phases. First, the experiences are identified with close reading; the following step is to select some of the institutional processes that are shaping those experiences and are relevant for the research. At the third stage, those processes are investigated in order to describe analytically how they determine people s experience. The analysis produces another narrative about diaconia work, which provides tools for examining the diaconal work from a new perspective. Through the analysis it is possible to see diaconia as an exchange ratio, in which the exchange takes place between a client and a diaconia worker, but also more broadly with other actors, such as social workers, shop clerks, or with other parishioners. The exchange ratio is examined from the perspective of power which is embedded in the client s experiences. The analysis reveals that the most important relations of ruling are humiliation and randomness in the exchange ratio of diaconia work; valuating spirituality above the bodily being; and replacing official social work. The results give a map about the relations of ruling of diaconia work which gives tools to look at diaconia work s meanings to the clients. The hidden element of humiliation in the exchange ratio breaks the current picture of diaconia work. The ethos of the holistic encounters and empathic practices are shown to be of another kind when spirituality is preferred to the bodily being. Nevertheless, diaconia appears to be a place for a respectful encounter, especially in situations where the public sector s actors are retreating on liability or clients are in a life crisis. The collapse of the welfare state structures imposes on diaconia work tasks that have not previously belonged to it. At the local level, clients receive partners from diaconia workers in order to advocate them in the welfare system. Actions to influence the wider societal structures are not reached because of lacking resources. An awareness of the oppressive practices of diaconia work and their critical reviewing are the keys to the development of diaconia work, since there are such practices even in holistic and respectful diaconia work. While the research raises new information for the development of diaconia work, it also opens up new aspects for developing other kinds of social work by emphasizing the importance of taking people s experiences seriously. Keywords: diaconia work, institutional ethnography, Dorothy E. Smith, experience, customer, relations of ruling.