48 resultados para pipeline life prediction


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Prevention of cardiovascular diseases is known to postpone death, but in an aging society it is important to ensure that those who live longer are neither disabled nor suffering an inferior quality of life. It is essential both from the point of view of the aging individual as well as that of society that any individual should enjoy a good physical, mental and social quality of life during these additional years. The studies presented in this thesis investigated the impact of modifiable risk factors, all of which affect cardiovascular health in the long term, on mortality and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The data is based on the all male cohort of the Helsinki Businessmen Study. This cohort, originally of 3.490 men born between 1919 and 1934 has been followed since the 1960s. The socioeconomic status of the participants is similar, since all the men were working in leading positions. Extensive baseline examinations were conducted among 2.375 of the men in 1974 when their mean age was 48 and at this time the health, medication and cardiovascular risk factors of the participants were observed. In 2000, at the mean age of 73, the HRQoL of the survivors of the original cohort was examined using the RAND-36 mailed questionnaire (n=1.864). RAND-36, along with the equivalent SF-36, is the world s most widely used means of assessing generic health. The response rate was generally over 90%. Mortality was retrieved from national registers in 2000 and 2002. For the six substudies of this thesis, the impact of four different modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (weight gain, cholesterol, alcohol and smoking) on the HRQoL in old age was studied both independently and in combination. The follow-up time for these studies varies from 26 up to 39 years. Mortality is reported separately or included in the RAND-36 scores for HRQoL. Elevated levels of all the risk factors examined among the participants in midlife led to a diminished life expectancy. Among survivors, lower weight gain in midlife was associated with better HRQoL, both physically and mentally. Higher levels of serum cholesterol in middle age indicated both an earlier mortality and a decline in the physical component of HRQoL in a dose-response manner during the 39-year follow-up. Mortality was significantly higher in the highest baseline category of reported mean alcohol consumption (≥ 5 drinks/day), but fairly comparable in abstainers and moderate drinkers during the 29-year follow-up. When HRQoL in old age was accounted for mortality, the men with the highest alcohol consumption in midlife clearly had poorer physical and mental health in old age, but the HRQoL of abstainers and those who drank alcohol in moderation were comparatively similar. The amount of cigarette smoking in midlife was shown to have had a dose-response effect on both mortality and HRQoL in old age during the 26 year follow-up. The men smoking over 20 cigarettes daily in middle age lost about 10 years of their life-expectancy. Meanwhile, the physical functioning of surviving heavy smokers in old age was similar to men 10 years older in the general population. The impact of clustered cardiovascular risk factors was examined by comparing two subcohorts of men who were healthy in 1974, but with different baseline risk factor status. The men with low risk had a 50 % lower mortality during the 29-years follow-up. Their RAND-36 scores for the physical quality of life in old age were significantly better, and the 2002 questionnaire examining psychological well-being indicated also significantly better mental health among the low-risk group. The results indicate that different risk factor levels in midlife have a meaningful impact on life-expectancy and the quality of these extra years. Leading a healthy lifestyle improves both survival and the quality of life.

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Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and other chronic inflammatory joint diseases already begin to affect patients health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in the earliest phases of these diseases. In treatment of inflammatory joint diseases, the last two decades have seen new strategies and treatment options introduced. Treatment is started at an earlier phase; combinations of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and corticosteroids are used; and in refractory cases new drugs such as tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors or other biologicals can be started. In patients with new referrals to the Department of Rheumatology of the Helsinki University Central Hospital, we evaluated the 15D and the Stanford Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) results at baseline and approximately 8 months after their first visit. Altogether the analysis included 295 patients with various rheumatic diseases. The mean baseline 15D score (0.822, SD 0.114) was significantly lower than for the age-matched general population (0.903, SD 0.098). Patients with osteoarthritis (OA) and spondyloarthropathies (SPA) reported the poorest HRQoL. In patients with RA and reactive arthritis (ReA) the HRQoL improved in a statistically significant manner during the 8-month follow-up. In addition, a clinically important change appeared in patients with systemic rheumatic diseases. HAQ score improved significantly in patients with RA, arthralgia and fibromyalgia, and ReA. In a study of 97 RA patients treated either with etanercept or adalimumab, we assessed their HRQoL with the RAND 36-Item Health Survey 1.0 (RAND-36) questionnaire. We also analysed changes in clinical parameters and the HAQ. With etanercept and adalimumab, the values of all domains in the RAND-36 questionnaire increased during the first 3 months. The efficacy of each in improving HRQoL was statistically significant, and the drug effects were comparable. Compared to Finnish age- and sex-matched general population values, the HRQoL of the RA patients was significantly lower at baseline and, despite the improvement, remained lower also at follow-up. Our RA patients had long-standing and severe disease that can explain the low HRQoL also at follow-up. In a pharmacoeconomic study of patients treated with infliximab we evaluated medical and work disability costs for patients with chronic inflammatory joint disease during one year before and one year after institution of infliximab treatment. Clinical and economic data for 96 patients with different arthritis diagnoses showed, in all patients, significantly improved clinical and laboratory variables. However, the medical costs increased significantly during the second period by 12 015 (95% confidence interval, 6 496 to 18 076). Only a minimal decrease in work disability costs occurred mean decrease 130 (-1 268 to 1 072). In a study involving a switch from infliximab to etanercept, we investigated the clinical outcome in 49 patients with RA. Reasons for switching were in 42% failure to respond by American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 50% criteria; in 12% adverse event; and in 46% non-medical reasons although the patients had responded to infliximab. The Disease Activity Score with 28 joints examined (DAS28) allowed us to measure patients disease activity and compare outcome between groups based on the reason for switching. In the patients in whom infliximab was switched to etanercept for nonmedical reasons, etanercept continued to suppress disease activity effectively, and 1-year drug survival for etanercept was 77% (95% CI, 62 to 97). In patients in the infliximab failure and adverse event groups, DAS28 values improved significantly during etanercept therapy. However, the 1-year drug survival of etanercept was only 43% (95% CI, 26 to 70) and 50% (95% CI, 33 to 100), respectively. Although the HRQoL of patients with inflammatory joint diseases is significantly lower than that of the general population, use of early and aggressive treatment strategies including TNF-inhibitors can improve patients HRQoL effectively. Further research is needed in finding new treatment strategies for those patients who fail to respond or lose their response to TNF-inhibitors.

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The outcome of the successfully resuscitated patient is mainly determined by the extent of hypoxic-ischemic cerebral injury, and hypothermia has multiple mechanisms of action in mitigating such injury. The present study was undertaken from 1997 to 2001 in Helsinki as a part of the European multicenter study Hypothermia after cardiac arrest (HACA) to test the neuroprotective effect of therapeutic hypothermia in patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital ventricular fibrillation (VF) cardiac arrest (CA). The aim of this substudy was to examine the neurological and cardiological outcome of these patients, and especially to study and develop methods for prediction of outcome in the hypothermia-treated patients. A total of 275 patients were randomized to the HACA trial in Europe. In Helsinki, 70 patients were enrolled in the study according to the inclusion criteria. Those randomized to hypothermia were actively cooled externally to a core temperature 33 ± 1ºC for 24 hours with a cooling device. Serum markers of ischemic neuronal injury, NSE and S-100B, were sampled at 24, 36, and 48 hours after CA. Somatosensory and brain stem auditory evoked potentials (SEPs and BAEPs) were recorded 24 to 28 hours after CA; 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiography recordings were performed three times during the first two weeks and arrhythmias and heart rate variability (HRV) were analyzed from the tapes. The clinical outcome was assessed 3 and 6 months after CA. Neuropsychological examinations were performed on the conscious survivors 3 months after the CA. Quantitative electroencephalography (Q-EEG) and auditory P300 event-related potentials were studied at the same time-point. Therapeutic hypothermia of 33ºC for 24 hours led to an increased chance of good neurological outcome and survival after out-of-hospital VF CA. In the HACA study, 55% of hypothermia-treated patients and 39% of normothermia-treated patients reached a good neurological outcome (p=0.009) at 6 months after CA. Use of therapeutic hypothermia was not associated with any increase in clinically significant arrhythmias. The levels of serum NSE, but not the levels of S-100B, were lower in hypothermia- than in normothermia-treated patients. A decrease in NSE values between 24 and 48 hours was associated with good outcome at 6 months after CA. Decreasing levels of serum NSE but not of S-100B over time may indicate selective attenuation of delayed neuronal death by therapeutic hypothermia, and the time-course of serum NSE between 24 and 48 hours after CA may help in clinical decision-making. In SEP recordings bilaterally absent N20 responses predicted permanent coma with a specificity of 100% in both treatment arms. Recording of BAEPs provided no additional benefit in outcome prediction. Preserved 24- to 48-hour HRV may be a predictor of favorable outcome in CA patients treated with hypothermia. At 3 months after CA, no differences appeared in any cognitive functions between the two groups: 67% of patients in the hypothermia and 44% patients in the normothermia group were cognitively intact or had only very mild impairment. No significant differences emerged in any of the Q-EEG parameters between the two groups. The amplitude of P300 potential was significantly higher in the hypothermia-treated group. These results give further support to the use of therapeutic hypothermia in patients with sudden out-of-hospital CA.

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Atopy-related allergic diseases, i.e. allergic rhinoconjunctivitis, atopic dermatitis and asthma, have increased in frequency in the industrialized countries. In order to reverse this trend, effective preventive strategies need to be developed. This requires a better understanding of the early-life events leading to the expression of the atopic phenotype. The present study has aimed at defining early-life factors and markers associated with the subsequent development of allergic diseases in a cohort of 200 healthy, unselected Finnish newborns prospectively followed up from birth to age 20 years. Their mothers were encouraged to start and maintain exclusive breastfeeding as long as it was nutritionally sufficient for the infant. Consequently, all the infants received some duration of exclusive breastfeeding, 58% of the infants were on exclusive breastfeeding for the first 6 months of life, and 18% received this feeding at least for the first 9 months. Of the infants, 42% had a family history of allergy. After the first year of follow-up, the children were re-assessed at ages 5, 11 and 20 years with clinical examination, skin prick testing, and parental and personal interviews. Exclusive breastfeeding for over 9 months was associated with atopic dermatitis and symptoms of food hypersensitivity at age 5 years, and with symptoms of food hypersensitivity at age 11 years in the children with a familial allergy. Subjects with allergic symptoms or a positive skin prick test in childhood or adolescence had lower retinol concentrations during their infancy and childhood than others. An elevated cord serum immunoglobulin E concentration predicted subsequent atopic manifestations though with modest sensitivity. Children and adolescents with allergic symptoms, skin prick test positivity and an elevated IgE had lower total cholesterol levels in infancy and childhood than the nonatopic subjects. In conclusion, prolonging strictly exclusive breastfeeding for over 9 months of age was not of help in prevention of allergic symptoms; instead, it was associated with increased atopic dermatitis and food hypersensitivity symptoms in childhood. Due to the modest sensitivity, cord serum IgE is not an effective screening method for atopic predisposition in the general population. Retinol and cholesterol concentrations in infancy were inversely associated with the subsequent development of allergic symptoms. Based on these findings, it is proposed that there may be differences in the inborn regulation of retinol and cholesterol levels in children with and without a genetic susceptibility to atopy, and these may play a role in the development of atopic sensitization and allergic diseases.

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This clinical study focused on effects of childhood specific language impairment (SLI) on daily functioning in late life. SLI is a neurobiological disorder with genetic predisposition and manifests as poor language production or comprehension or both in a child with age-level non-verbal intelligence and no other known cause for deficient language development. The prevalence rate of around 7% puts it among the most prevalent developmental disorders in childhood. Negative long-term effects, such as problems in learning and behavior, are frequent. In follow-up studies the focus has seldom been on self-perception of daily functioning and participation, which are considered important in the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF). To investigate the self-perceived aspects of everyday functioning in individuals with childhood receptive SLI compared with age- and gender-matched control populations, the 15D, 16D, and 17D health-related quality of life (HRQoL) questionnaires were applied. These generic questionnaires include 15, 16, and 17 dimensions, respectively, and give both a single index score and a profile with values on each dimension. Information on different life domains (rehabilitation, education, employment etc.) from each age-group was collected with separate questionnaires. The study groups comprised adults, adolescents (12-16 years), and pre-adolescents (8-11 years) who had received a diagnosis of receptive SLI and had been examined, usually before school age, at the Department of Phoniatrics of Helsinki University Central Hospital, where children with language deficits caused by various etiologies are examined and treated by a multidisciplinary team. The adult respondents included 33 subjects with a mean age of 34 years. Measured with 15D, the subjects perceived their HRQoL to be nearly as good as that of their controls, but on the dimensions of speech, usual activities, mental functioning, and distress they were significantly worse off. They significantly more often lived with their parents (19%) or were pensioned (26%) than the adult Finnish population on average. Adults with self-perceived problems in finding words and in remembering instructions, manifestations of persistent language impairment, showed inferior every day functioning to the rest of the study group. Of the adolescents and pre-adolescents, 48 and 51, respectively, responded. The majority in both groups had received special education or extra educational support at school. They all had attended speech therapy at some point; at the time of the study only one adolescent, but every third pre-adolescent still received speech therapy. The 16D score of the adolescent or the 17D score of the pre-adolescents did not differ from that of their controls. The 16D profiles differed on some dimensions; subjects were significantly worse off on the dimension of mental functioning, but better off on the dimension of vitality than controls. Of the 17D dimensions, the study group was significantly worse off on speech, whereas the control group reported significantly more problems in sleeping. Of the childhood performance measures investigated, low verbal intelligence quotient (VIQ), which is often considered to reflect receptive language impairment, was in adults subjects significantly associated with some of the self-perceived problems, such as problems in usual activities and mental functioning. The 15D, 16D, and 17D questionnaires served well in measuring self-perceived HRQoL. Such standardized measures with population values are especially important in confirming with the ICF guidelines. In the future these questionnaires could perhaps be used on a more individual level in follow-up of children in clinics, and even in special schools and classes, to detect those children at greatest risk of negative long-term effects and perhaps diminished well-being regarding daily functioning and participation.

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Occupational rhinitis is mainly caused by work environment and not by stimuli encountered outside the workplace. It differs from rhinitis that is worsened by, but not mainly caused by, workplace exposures. Occupational rhinitis can develop in response to allergens, inhaled irritants, or corrosive gases. The thesis evaluated the use of challenge tests in occupational rhinitis diagnostics, studied the long-term health-related quality of life among allergic occupational rhinitis patients, and the allergens of wheat grain among occupational respiratory allergy patients. The diagnosed occupational rhinitis was mainly allergic rhinitis, which was caused by occupational agents, most commonly flours and animal allergens. The non-IgE-mediated rhinitis reactions were less frequent and caused more often asthma than rhinitis. Both nasal challenges and inhalation challenges were found to be safe tests. The inhalation challenge tests had considerably resource-intensive methodology. However, the evaluation of nasal symptoms and signs together with bronchial reactions saved time and expense compared with the organization of multiple individual challenges. The scoring criteria used matched well with the weighted amount of discharge ≥ 0.2 g and in most cases gave comparable results. The challenge tests are valuable tools when there is uncertainty whether the patient's exposure should be reduced or discontinued. It was found that continuing exposure decreases health-related quality of life among patients with allergic occupational rhinitis despite of rhinitis medications, still approximately ten years after the diagnosis. Health-related quality of life among occupational rhinitis patients without any longer occupational exposure was mainly similar than that of the healthy controls. This highlights the importance of the reduction and cessation of occupational exposure. To achieve this, 17% of occupational rhinitis patients had been re-educated. Alpha-amylase inhibitors, lipid transfer protein 2G, thaumatin -like protein, and peroxidase I were found to be relevant allergens in Finnish patients with occupational respiratory wheat allergy. Of these allergens, thaumatin-like protein and lipid transfer protein 2G were found as new allergens associated with baker's rhinitis and asthma. The knowledge of the new clinically relevant proteins can be used in the future in the development of better standardized diagnostic preparations.

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Quality of life (QoL) and Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are becoming one of the key outcomes of health care due to increased respect for the subjective valuations and well-being of patients and an increasing part of the ageing population living with chronic, non-fatal conditions. Preference-based HRQoL measures enable estimation of health utility, which can be useful for rational rationing, evidence-based medicine and health policy. This study aimed to compare the individual severity and public health burden of major chronic conditions in Finland, including and focusing on reliably diagnosed psychiatric conditions. The study is based on the Health 2000 survey, a representative general population survey of 8028 Finns aged 30 and over. Depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders were diagnosed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). HRQoL was measured with the 15D and the EQ-5D, with 83% response rate. This study found that people with psychiatric disorders had the lowest 15D HRQoL scores at all ages, in comparison to other main groups of chronic conditions. Considering 29 individual conditions, three of the four most severe (on 15D) were psychiatric disorders; the most severe was Parkinson s disease. Of the psychiatric disorders, chronic conditions that have sometimes been considered relatively mild - dysthymia, agoraphobia, generalized anxiety disorder and social phobia - were found to be the most severe. This was explained both by the severity of the impact of these disorders on mental health domains of HRQoL, and also by the fact that decreases were widespread on most dimensions of HRQoL. Considering the public health burden of conditions, musculoskeletal disorders were associated with the largest burden, followed by psychiatric disorders. Psychiatric disorders were associated with the largest burden at younger ages. Of individual conditions, the largest burden found was for depressive disorders, followed by urinary incontinence and arthrosis of the hip and knee. The public health burden increased greatly with age, so the ageing of the Finnish population will mean that the disease burden caused by chronic conditions will increase by a quarter up to year 2040, if morbidity patterns do not change. Investigating alcohol consumption and HRQoL revealed that although abstainers had poorer HRQoL than moderate drinkers, this was mainly due to many abstainers being former drinkers and having the poorest HRQoL. Moderate drinkers did not have significantly better HRQoL than abstainers who were not former drinkers. Psychiatric disorders are associated with a large part of the non-fatal disease burden in Finland. In particular anxiety disorders appear to be more severe and have a larger public health burden than previously thought.

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Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

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Data assimilation provides an initial atmospheric state, called the analysis, for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This analysis consists of pressure, temperature, wind, and humidity on a three-dimensional NWP model grid. Data assimilation blends meteorological observations with the NWP model in a statistically optimal way. The objective of this thesis is to describe methodological development carried out in order to allow data assimilation of ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System (GPS) into the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) NWP system. Geodetic processing produces observations of tropospheric delay. These observations can be processed either for vertical columns at each GPS receiver station, or for the individual propagation paths of the microwave signals. These alternative processing methods result in Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) and Slant Delay (SD) observations, respectively. ZTD and SD observations are of use in the analysis of atmospheric humidity. A method is introduced for estimation of the horizontal error covariance of ZTD observations. The method makes use of observation minus model background (OmB) sequences of ZTD and conventional observations. It is demonstrated that the ZTD observation error covariance is relatively large in station separations shorter than 200 km, but non-zero covariances also appear at considerably larger station separations. The relatively low density of radiosonde observing stations limits the ability of the proposed estimation method to resolve the shortest length-scales of error covariance. SD observations are shown to contain a statistically significant signal on the asymmetry of the atmospheric humidity field. However, the asymmetric component of SD is found to be nearly always smaller than the standard deviation of the SD observation error. SD observation modelling is described in detail, and other issues relating to SD data assimilation are also discussed. These include the determination of error statistics, the tuning of observation quality control and allowing the taking into account of local observation error correlation. The experiments made show that the data assimilation system is able to retrieve the asymmetric information content of hypothetical SD observations at a single receiver station. Moreover, the impact of real SD observations on humidity analysis is comparable to that of other observing systems.