Technology-related peso problems in stock returns

Although empirical evidence suggests the contrary, many asset pricing models assume stock returns to be symmetrically distributed. In this paper it is argued that the occurrence of negative jumps in a firm's future earnings and, consequently, in its stock price, is positively related to the level of network externalities in the firm's product market. If the ex post frequency of these negative jumps in a sample does not equal the ex ante assessed probability of occurrence, the sample is subject to a peso problem. The hypothesis is tested for by regressing the skewness coefficient of a firm’s realised stock return distribution on the firm’s R&D intensity, i.e. the ratio of the firm’s research and development expenditure to its net sales. The empirical results support the technology-related peso problem hypothesis. In samples subject to such a peso problem, the returns are biased up and the variance is biased down.

Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

The Influence of World Factors on Finnish Stock Market Volatility

This paper investigates to what extent the volatility of Finnish stock portfolios is transmitted through the "world volatility". We operationalize the volatility processes of Finnish leverage, industry, and size portfolio returns by asymmetric GARCH specifications according to Glosten et al. (1993). We use daily return data for January, 2, 1987 to December 30, 1998. We find that the world shock significantly enters the domestic models, and that the impact has increased over time. This applies also for the variance ratios, and the correlations to the world. The larger the firm, the larger is the world impact. The conditional variance is higher during recessions. The asymmetry parameter is surprisingly non-significant, and the leverage hypothesis cannot be verified. The return generating process of the domestic portfolio returns does usually not include the world information set, thus indicating that the returns are generated by a segmented conditional asset pricing model.

Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Examining and Modeling the Dynamics of the Volatility Surface

The objective of this paper is to investigate and model the characteristics of the prevailing volatility smiles and surfaces on the DAX- and ESX-index options markets. Continuing on the trend of Implied Volatility Functions, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model is introduced and fitted to historical data. The model replaces the constant volatility parameter of the Black & Scholes pricing model with a matrix of volatilities with respect to moneyness and maturity and is tested out-of-sample. Considering the dynamics, the results show support for the hypotheses put forward in this study, implying that the smile increases in magnitude when maturity and ATM volatility decreases and that there is a negative/positive correlation between a change in the underlying asset/time to maturity and implied ATM volatility. Further, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model indicates an improvement to pricing accuracy compared to previous Implied Volatility Function models, however indicating that the parameters of the models are to be re-estimated continuously for the models to fully capture the changing dynamics of the volatility smiles.

Volatility Smile Dynamics in Scenario Analysis

The objective of this paper is to suggest a method that accounts for the impact of the volatility smile dynamics when performing scenario analysis for a portfolio consisting of vanilla options. As the volatility smile is documented to change at least with the level of implied at-the-money volatility, a suitable model is here included in the calculation process of the simulated market scenarios. By constructing simple portfolios of index options and comparing the ex ante risk exposure measured using different pricing methods to realized market values, ex post, the improvements of the incorporation of the model are monitored. The analyzed examples in the study generate results that statistically support that the most accurate scenarios are those calculated using the model accounting for the dynamics of the smile. Thus, we show that the differences emanating from the volatility smile are apparent and should be accounted for and that the methodology presented herein is one suitable alternative for doing so.

Re-Conceptualizing Value-Creation From Industrial Business Logic to Service Business Logic

There is an urgent interest in marketing to move away from neo-classical value definitions suggesting that value creation is a process of exchanging goods for money. In the present paper, value creation is conceptualized as an integration of two distinct, yet closely coupled processes. First, actors co-create what this paper calls an underlying basis of value. This is done by interactively re-configuring resources. By relating and combining resources, activity sets, and risks across actor boundaries in novel ways actors create joint productivity gains – a concept very similar to density (Normann, 2001). Second, actors engage in a process of signification and evaluation. Signification implies co-constructing the meaning and worth of joint productivity gains co-created through interactive resource re-configuration, as well as sharing those gains through a pricing mechanism as value to involved actors. The conceptual framework highlights an all-important dynamics associated with ´value creation´ and ´value´ - a dynamics the paper claims has eluded past marketing research. The paper argues that the framework presented here is appropriate for the interactive service perspective, where value and value creation are not objectively given, but depend on the power of involved actors´ socially constructed frames to mobilize resources across actor boundaries in ways that ´enhance system well-being´ (Vargo et al., 2008). The paper contributes to research on Service Logic, Service-Dominant Logic, and Service Science.

Trends in Pharmaceutical Product Development 2000-2010

Merkittävä osa alkuperäislääkevalmistajien tutkimus- ja tuotekehityskuluista näyttää olevan suunnattu olemassa olevien lääkkeiden kehittämiseen. Tämä voi oletettavasti johtaa kiinnostaviin formulaatiokehitysstrategioihin. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli selvittää, voidaanko farmaseuttisen tuotekehityksen trendejä havaita myönnettyjen myyntilupien perusteella. Tutkimuksen mielenkiinnon kohteena olivat myös suurimpien lääkeyritysten käyttämät elinkaaren hallinnan keinot, joilla suojataan myyvimpiä tuotteita geneeriseltä kilpailulta ja varmistetaan markkinaosuus. Tutkimuksen painopiste oli kiinteissä oraalisissa lääkevalmisteissa. Laadullisten ja määrällisten menetelmien yhdistelmää käytettiin laajan näkökulman saamiseksi tutkittavaan aiheeseen. Suomalaisten myyntilupaviranomaisten haastatteluja käytettiin keräämään taustatietoa tutkimuksen määrällistä osaa varten. Määrällinen osa koostui myyntilupatietokannoista, jotka käsittivät kaikkien menettelyjen kautta Suomessa myönnetyt myyntiluvat, keskitetyn menettelyn kautta EU:ssa myönnetyt myyntiluvat ja maailman kymmenen suurinta lääkeyritystä USA:ssa. Tutkimustulosten perusteella rinnakkaislääkkeiden määrässä tapahtui merkittävä nousu Suomessa kaikkien menettelyjen kautta myönnetyissä myyntiluvissa ja EU:ssa keskitetyn menettelyn kautta myönnetyissä myyntiluvissa vuosina 2000-2010. Tämä muutos saattaa ainakin osaksi johtua lainsäädännöllisistä muutoksista, joilla luotiin kannustimia rinnakkaislääkkeiden käyttöön ja valmistukseen, kuten lääkevaihto ja viitehintajärjestelmä. USA:n tiedot osoittivat suurten lääkevalmistajien kiinnostuksen elinkaaren hallintaan: suurin osa maailman kymmenelle suurimmalle lääkeyritykselle myönnetyistä myyntiluvista vuosina 2005-2010 oli tähän tarkoitukseen. Elinkaaren hallinnan suhde uusiin lääkeaineisiin oli lähes 4:1. Kiinteä oraalinen lääkemuoto on kiistatta kaikista suosituin tapa annostella lääke, minkä vahvistivat sekä arvioijien haastattelut että myyntilupatiedot. Kiinteiden oraalisten rooli oli entistäkin korostuneempi rinnakkaislääkkeiden kohdalla. Kun innovatiivisuutta mitattiin epätyypillisten annosmuotojen määrällä, USA:n tiedot kiinteistä oraalisista lääkemuodoista osoittivat vahvaa innovatiivisuutta Suomen ja EU:n tietoihin verrattuna. Tämä saattaa heijastaa suurten lääkeyritysten innovatiivista tuotevalikoimaa. Epätyypillisten kiinteiden oraalisten annosmuotojen osuus oli huomattavasti pienempi rinnakkaislääkkeissä kuin alkuperäislääkkeissä kaikilla alueilla. Elinkaaren hallinnassa käytetyimmät strategiat olivat uusi formulaatio, uusi vahvuus ja uusi yhdistelmä olemassa olevasta valmisteesta. Kiinteiden oraalisten lääkemuotojen osalta kaksi kolmasosaa uusista elinkaaren hallinnan formulaatioista oli säädellysti vapauttavia valmisteita. Elinkaaren hallinta on olennainen osa suurten lääkeyritysten liiketoimintastrategiaa, ja sen tärkeyttä havainnollistettiin Coreg-tablettien tapausesimerkillä.

Helsingin seudun ruuhkamaksut yritysnäkökulmasta

Congestion of traffic is one of the biggest challenges for urban cities in global perspective. Car traffic and traffic jams are causing major problems and the congestion is predicted to worsen in the future. The greenhouse effect has caused a severe threat to the environment globally. On the other hand from the point of view of companies and other economic parties time and money has been lost because of the congestion of traffic. This work studies some possible traffic payment systems for the Helsinki Metropolitan area introducing three optional models and concentrating on the point of view of the economic parties. Central part of this work is formed by a research questionnaire, which was conducted among companies located in the Helsinki area and where more than 1000 responses were gained. The study researches the approaches of the respondents to the area s current traffic system, its development and urban congestion pricing and the answers are analyzed according to the size, industry and location of the companies. The economic aspect is studied by economic theory of industrial location and by emphasizing the meaning of smoothly running traffic for the economic world. Chapter three presents detailed information about traffic congestion, how today s car-centered society has been formed, what concrete things congestion means for economic life and how traffic congestion can be limited. Theoretically it is examined how urban traffic payment systems are working using examples from London and Stockholm where successful traffic payment experiences exist. The literature review analyzes urban development, increasing car traffic and Helsinki Metropolitan area on a structural point of view. The fourth chapter introduces a case study, which concentrates on Helsinki Metropolitan area s different structures, the congestion situation in Helsinki and the introduction of the traffic payment system clarification. Currently the region is experiencing a phase where big changes are happening in the planning of traffic. The traffic systems are being unified to consider the whole region in the future. Also different advices for the increasing traffic congestion problems are needed. Chapter five concentrates on the questionnaire and theme interviews and introduces the research findings. The respondents overall opinion of the traffic payments is quite skeptical. There were some regional differences found and especially taxi, bus and cargo and transit enterprises shared the most negative opinion. Economic parties were worried especially because of the traffic congestion is causing harm for the business travel and the employees traveling to and from work. According to the respondents the best option from the traffic payment models was the ring model where the payment places would be situated inside the Ring Road III. Both the company representatives and other key decision makers see public transportation as a good and powerful tool to decrease traffic congestion. The only question, which remains, is where to find investors willing to invest in public transportation if economic representatives do not believe in pricing the traffic by for example traffic payment systems.

Drug epidemiology, interactions and pharmacogenetics : A post-mortem database study

Use of adverse drug combinations, abuse of medicinal drugs and substance abuse are considerable social problems that are difficult to study. Prescription database studies might fail to incorporate factors like use of over-the-counter drugs and patient compliance, and spontaneous reporting databases suffer from underreporting. Substance abuse and smoking studies might be impeded by poor participation activity and reliability. The Forensic Toxicology Unit at the University of Helsinki is the only laboratory in Finland that performs forensic toxicology related to cause-of-death investigations comprising the analysis of over 6000 medico-legal cases yearly. The analysis repertoire covers most commonly used drugs and drugs of abuse, and the ensuing database contains also background information and information extracted from the final death certificate. In this thesis, the data stored in this comprehensive post-mortem toxicology database was combined with additional metabolite and genotype analyses that were performed to complete the profile of selected cases. The incidence of drug combinations possessing serious adverse drug interactions was generally low (0.71%), but it was notable for the two individually studied drugs, a common anticoagulant warfarin (33%) and a new generation antidepressant venlafaxine (46%). Serotonin toxicity and adverse cardiovascular effects were the most prominent possible adverse outcomes. However, the specific role of the suspected adverse drug combinations was rarely recognized in the death certificates. The frequency of bleeds was observed to be elevated when paracetamol and warfarin were used concomitantly. Pharmacogenetic factors did not play a major role in fatalities related to venlafaxine, but the presence of interacting drugs was more common in cases showing high venlafaxine concentrations. Nicotine findings in deceased young adults were roughly three times more prevalent than the smoking frequency estimation of living population. Contrary to previous studies, no difference in the proportion of suicides was observed between nicotine users and non-nicotine users. However, findings of abused substances, including abused prescription drugs, were more common in the nicotine users group than in the non-nicotine users group. The results of the thesis are important for forensic and clinical medicine, as well as for public health. The possibility of drug interactions and pharmacogenetic issues should be taken into account in cause-of-death investigations, especially in unclear cases, medical malpractice suspicions and cases where toxicological findings are scarce. Post-mortem toxicological epidemiology is a new field of research that can help to reveal problems in drug use and prescription practises.

Rauhan atomi, sodan koodi : Suomalaisen atomivoimaratkaisun teknopolitiikka 1955-1970

This dissertation investigates the atomic power solution in Finland between 1955 - 1970. During these years a national arrangement for atomic energy technology evolved. The foundations of the Finnish atomic energy policy; the creation of basic legislation and the first governmental bodies, were laid between 1955 - 1965. In the late 1960's, the necessary technological and political decisions were made in order to purchase the first commercial nuclear reactor. A historical narration of this process is seen in the international context of "atoms for peace" policies and Cold War history in general. The geopolitical position of Finland made it necessary to become involved in the balanced participation in international scientific-technical exchange and assistive nuclear programs. The Paris Peace Treaty of 1947 categorically denied Finland acquisition of nuclear weapons. Accordingly, from the "Geneva year" of 1955, the emphasis was placed on peaceful purposes for atomic energy as well as on the education of national professionals in Finland. An initiative for the governmental atomic energy commission came from academia but the ultimate motive behind it was an anticipated structural change in the supply of national energy. Economically exploitable hydro power resources were expected to be built within ten years and atomic power was seen as a promising and complementing new energy technology. While importing fuels like coal was out of the question, because of scarce foreign currency, domestic uranium mineral deposits were considered as a potential source of nuclear fuel. Nevertheless, even then nuclear energy was regarded as just one of the possible future energy options. In the mid-1960 s a bandwagon effect of light water reactor orders was witnessed in the United States and soon elsewhere in the world. In Finland, two separate invitations for bids for nuclear reactors were initiated. This study explores at length both their preceding grounds and later phases. An explanation is given that the parallel, independent and nearly identical tenders reflected a post-war ideological rivalry between the state-owned utility Imatran Voima and private energy utilities. A private sector nuclear power association Voimayhdistys Ydin represented energy intensive paper and pulp industries and wanted to have free choice instead of being associated themselves with "the state monopoly" in energy pricing. As a background to this, a decisive change had started to happen within Finnish energy policy: private and municipal big thermal power plants became incorporated into the national hydro power production system. A characteristic phenomenon in the later history is the Soviet Union s effort to bid for the tender of Imatran Voima. A nuclear superpower was willing to take part in competition but not on a turnkey basis as Imatran Voima had presumed. As a result of many political turns and four years of negotiations the first Finnish commercial light water reactor was ordered from the East. Soon after this the private nuclear power group ordered its reactors from Sweden. This work interprets this as a reasonable geopolitical balance in choosing politically sensitive technology. Conceptually, social and political dimensions of new technology are emphasised. Negotiations on the Finnish atomic energy program are viewed as a cooperation and a struggle, where state-oriented and private-oriented regimes pose their own macro level views and goals (technopolitical imaginaries) and defend and advance their plans and practical modes of action (schemata). Here, not only technologists but even political actors are seen to contribute to technopolitical realisations.