Onko varhaisen tuen päiväkoti mahdollinen? : Tutkimus varhaiskasvatuksen yhteisöllisestä kehittämisestä

Is the early childhood day care facility possible? The research considering communal development of the early education. In Finland mothers and fathers look after 400 000 pre-school children. Half of these attend day care facilities, in which 50 000 staff are employed. The aim of this research is to develop co-operation practices within the day care centre. This research refines and expands my own interest in and knowledge of day care management and content development. The basis of the research draws upon ethnographic material covering the period 1999–2005. The day care centre chosen as a central informant was the first suburban centre founded in 1963, and it provided a rich local and welfare state research perspective. It became clear that the day care facility’s co-operation practices formed the basis of bringing up children and at the same time produced a new multi-operational and multi-layered community for child participation. Adult day care centre workers bringing up the children as a professional work and solutions defining the conditions for the work are expressed in a child’s upbringing. This obviously has an impact in where as the development of communities. From the human and community scientific point of view, the group of youngest children will take up a future position as key players in communities as essential actors and reformers. The research was carried out as multiphase and multiscientific practical research and iterative data formation. The results verified that the co-operation between parents and day care staff produces important benefits for all the stakeholders. However, the day care staff has difficulties in implementing the benefits. During the research process, it became clear that conceptually day care staff saw the practices as ”very important, but not easily realised in practice”. As a result this demanded further research to address this issue and to extend this to the carefacility’s co-operation practises and their communal and social conditions. The research looks at the carefacility’s co-operation with key stakeholders. At the same time it undertakes an analytical and historical examination of carefacilitys’s with an experimental focus as two day care centres chosen as experimental objects. The results of the research showed that the benefits gained by children were determined by the day care centre’s socio-political structure and the parent’s resources. The research framework categorised early childhood education as generational and gender based structures. As part of the research, the strains endemic to these formations have been examined. The system for bringing up children was created as part of a so called welfare state project by implemented by the Day Care Act in year 1973. The law secured the subjective right for every pre-school child to have access to day care facilities. The law also introduced a labour and sosiopolitical phase and the refinement of the day care facility’s education-care concept. The latest phase that started during the early 1990´s was called the market-based social services strategy. As a result of this phase, state support was limited and the screening function of the law was relaxed. This new strategy resulted in a divisive and bureaucratic social welfare system, that individualised and segregated children and their parents, leaving some families outside the communal and welfare state benefit net. The modern day care centre is a hybrid of different aims. Children spend longer and more irregular time in day care. The families are multicultural and that requires more training for the staff. The work in day care has been enhanced, for example he level of education for the staff has been lowered and productivity has been improved. However, administrative work and different kinds of support and net work functions together with the continuous change have taken over from the work done face to face with children. Staff experiences more pressure as the management and the work load has increased. Consequently the long-term planning and daily implementation of the nuclear task of the day care facility is difficult to control. This will have an effect on both motivation and manageability of the work. Overall quality of the early childhood upbringing has been weakened. The possibilities for the near future were tested in the two day care centres chosen as an experi-ment objects. The analysis of these experiments showed that generative interaction work will benefit everyone: children, parents and employees. The main results of the research are new concepts of an early support day care centre, which can be empirically and theoretically possi-ble for development the near future. Key words: Day care facility’s co-operation practises, early childhood education as generational structure, child’s multi-operational and multi-layered community, multi-subjective operator, generative interaction work, communal composition.

Esimiestaitojen tärkeys, hallinta ja kehitystarpeet

This study examines the leadership skills in municipal organisation. The study reflects the manager views on leadership skills required. The purpose of this study was to reflect the most important leadership skills currently and in the future as well as the control of these skills. The study also examines the importance of the change and development needs of the leadership skills. In addition, the effect of background variables on evaluation of leadership skills were also examined. The quantitative research method was used in the study. The material was collected with the structured questionnaire from 324 Kotka city managers. SPSS-program was used to analyse the study material. Factor analysis was used as the main method for analysis. In addition, mean and standard deviations were used to better reflect the study results. Based on the study results, the most important leadership skills currently and in the future are associated with internet skills, work control, problem solving and human resource management skills. Managers expected the importance of leadership skills to grow in the future. Main growth is associated with the software utilisation, language skills, communication skills as well as financial leadership skills. Strongest competence according to managers is associated with the internet skills. Managers also considered to control well the skills related to employee know-how and manager networking. In addition, significant development needs are required in leadership skills. Main improvement areas were discovered in software utilisation, work control, human resource management skills as well as skills requiring problem solving. It should be noted that the main improvement areas appeared in the leadership skills that were evaluated as most important apart from software utilisation. Position, municipal segments and sex were observed to explain most of the deviation in received responses.

Keskustelu yliopiston uudesta palkkausjärjestelmästä - akateemisten arvojen murtaja vai toiveiden täyttäjä?

There has been a change in university´s position in society during the last of decades from traditional university to result-based university. Result-based is considered as a steering mechanism. The context in this study is the period when the New Salary System was introduced. In the New Salary System salary is based on the performance appraisal made by the supervisor. The purpose of the study was to understand the discussion of the New Salary System and how this discussion should be interpreted. The research task had two parts. In the first part the objective was to identify how the academic work was conceptualised. In the second part I analyzed how one related to the New Salary System and how this was interpreted in relation to representation of academic work. The research material consisted of webblogs from the year 2005. Webblogs were located in the internet and one had free access to them. Mostly employees from Finnish universities wrote to them. Besides the salary system writers discussed the university and the academic work. Two different ways of talking about the academic work were found in research material. In the first one the academic work was based on community and in the second one on individuality. When community was emphasized writers discussed also science and research and academic traditions such as peer review. When individuality was emphasized writers discussed individual performance and the importance of salary according to one´s performance. The analysis shows that the New Salary System was opposed and supported. Opposition was based on arguments for the traditional university; peer review, truth, academic profession, academic community and university’s autonomy are the most important arguments. Supporters used arguments such as the need to make individual´s performance visible and breaking the existing power structures.

Haptiisit ja hapteemit : tapaustutkimus kuurosokean henkilön kosketukseen perustuvan kommunikaation kehityksestä

Haptices and haptemes: A case study of developmental process in touch-based communication of acquired deafblind people This research is the first systematic, longitudinal process and development description of communication using touch and body with an acquired deafblind person. The research consists of observational and analysed written and video materials mainly from two informants´ experiences during period of 14 years. The research describes the adaptation of Social-Haptic methods between a couple, and other informants´ experiences, which have been collated from biographies and through giving national and international courses. When the hearing and sight deteriorates due to having an acquired deafblind condition, communication consists of multi-systematic and adaptive methods. A person`s expressive language, spoken or Sign Language, usually remains unchanged, but the methods of receiving information could change many times during a person s lifetime. Haptices are made from haptemes that determines which regulations are analysed. When defining haptemes the definition, classification and varied meanings of touch were discovered. Haptices include sharing a personal body space, meaning of touch-contact, context and using different communication channels. Communication distances are classified as exact distance, estimated distance and touch distance. Physical distance can be termed as very long, long, medium or very close. Social body space includes the body areas involved in sending and receiving haptices and applying different types of contacts. One or two hands can produce messages by using different hand shapes and orientations. This research classifies how the body can be identified into different areas such as body orientation, varied body postures, body position levels, social actions and which side of the body is used. Spatial body space includes environmental and situational elements. Haptemes of movements are recognised as the direction of movements, change of directions on the body, directions between people, pressure, speed, frequency, size, length, duration, pause, change of rhythm, shape, macro and micro movements. Haptices share multidimensional meanings and emotions. Research describes haptices in different situations enhancing sensory information and functioning also as an independent language. Haptices includes social-haptic confirmation system, social quick messages, body drawing, contact to the people and the environment, guiding and sharing art experiences through movements. Five stages of emotional differentiation were identified as very light, light, medium, heavy and very heavy touch. Haptices give the possibility to share different art, hobby and game experiences. A new communication system development based on the analysis of the research data is classified into different phases. These are experimental initiation, social deconstruction, developing the description of Social-Haptic communication and generalisation of the theory as well as finding and conceptualising the haptices and haptemes. The use and description of haptices is a social innovation, which illustrates the adaptive function of the body and perceptual senses that can be taught to a third party. Keywords: deafblindness, hapteme, haptic, haptices, movement, social-haptic communication, social-haptic confirmation system, tactile, touch

The Development of the Concept of Music Education in Estonian Kindergartens, 1905-2008 : a Historical–Critical Overview

The dissertation focuses on the development of music education in Estonian kindergartens and the factors influencing it, analysed in the historical perspective relying on post-positivist paradigm. The study is based on the factors and subjects’ views on kindergarten music education from 1905 to 2008, recorded in written sources or ascertained by means of questionnaire and interview. The dissertation deals with music’s functions, music education in retrospective, factors influencing child’s musical aptitude and development and teacher’s role in it through the prism of history. The formation of Estonian kindergarten music education and the phenomenon of its development have been researched by stages: the first manifestations of music in kindergarten in 1905 - 1940; the formation of the concept of music education in 1941 - 1967 and the application of a unified system in 1968 - 1990. The work also outlines innovative trends in music education at the end of the last millennium and the beginning of this century, in 1991 - 2008. The study relies on a combined design and an analysis of historical archival material and empirical data. The empirical part of the study is based on the questionnaire (n=183) and interviews (n=18) carried out with kindergarten music teachers. The data has been analysed using both qualitative and quantitative methods. The subject of the research is the content and activity types of kindergarten music education and the role of music teacher in their implementation. The study confirmed that fundamental changes took place in Estonian kindergarten music education due to the change in political power in the 1940s. Following the example of the Soviet system of education, music in kindergarten became an independent music educational orientation and the position of a professionally trained music teacher was established (1947). It was also confirmed that in the newly independent Estonian Republic under the influence of innovative trends a new paradigm of music education arose from the traditional singing-centred education towards the more balanced use of music activity types (attaching importance to the child-centred approach, an increase in the number and variety of activity types). The most important conclusions made in the dissertation are that there has been improvement and development deriving from contemporary trends in the clear concept that has evolved in Estonian kindergarten music education over a century; professionally trained music teachers have had a crucial role in shaping it; and kindergarten music education is firmly positioned as a part of preschool education in Estonian system of education. Key words: early childhood music education, history of music education, kindergarten music education, early childhood music teachers

Matkalla suomalaiseksi ja hoiva-alan ammattilaiseksi? : Venäläis- ja virolaistaustaisten naisten ja suomalaisuuden kohtaamiset kuulumista rakentamassa

The research examines the process by which a sense of belonging to Finnish society is constructed among women of Russian and Estonian background who are multiply marginalised in Finnish society. It does so by analysing the encounters between their nationality and 'being Finnis'. Attention is focused on the question of what kind of "journey" they take after moving to Finland, how a sense of belonging is constructed especially along the paths followed in education and at work, and what kind of agency is available to them. The thesis is connected with post-colonial research and also draws from studies on citizenship and nationality as well as the social structures of interaction, when analysing careers. As the educational system forms the most central context of the research, the work is also focused on educational sociology. The research methodology includes life history and a narrative approach. The raw data is from thematic interviews concerning the life experiences of women of immigrant backgrounds. They were studying in Finland to be practical nurses or to complete Bachelor of Social Service degree. According to the study, the women had been encountered as alien, strange, and carrying a shade of "otherness". The experience of inclusion in Finnish communities and society turned out to be conditional, an inclusion based on the notion of a citizen worker, which is defined by national needs. The person from abroad is placed in the position of someone who fills gaps in the services of the welfare state. The choice of education in the care sector and the overall necessity of obtaining Finnish education turned out to be socially directed. Gendered structures of education and working life were found to act as a frame in which the decisions of the immigrant women were made. Although national education policy emphasis as an orientation to global labour markets, the immigrant student is placed above all in the position of an object to be made suitable for the Finnish labour market. Citizenship, a goal of education, requires consent to being "socialised" into Finnish society as well as learning to be Finnish. One s only option to negotiate appearing suitable as a member is to construct oneself into someone who adopts Finnish and Western cultural values, values which favour individuality. However, Finnish education is a resource to Finnishness. Finnish education enables a sense of being Finnish, and empowers the job applicant for example, and in addition to providing cultural, human and social capital strengthen inclusion as well. The study confirms the view that the encounter of an immigrant is still characterised by its colonial nature. It shows that encounters with Finns and Finnish society place the person of immigrant background, even one receiving a Finnish education, in the position of "the other". The journey as an immigrant continues. The immigrant has access only to certain predefined subject positions, which limits agency. When categorised as an immigrant, one becomes a per-son who is different and "other", while the sense of belonging as a member of Finnish society without conditions appears to be somewhat unreachable. Yet, new arrivals are capable of acting change. An immigrant woman can challenge the positions offered to her and present herself as strong. Her life story has often included struggle, and she has the fortitude strength to change her circumstances. Key words: life story, post-colonial encounter, nationality, citizenship, the career of immi-grant, position, agency

Oikein, nurin - miten Suomessa kudin : Tutkimus neulonnan työotteista.

The aim of this work was to study what kind of working grips people use to knit in Finland and decide if one grip is superior to others. I investigated how knitters have adopted their grips and how they experience their knitting. I also explored whether it is possible to change one's grip. To provide a theoretical basis for the research I observed knitting in terms of culture, skill and ergonomics. The first part of the study material comprised video recordings of the grips of 95 knitters together with background information collected via a questionnaire during the education of craft teachers at the University of Helsinki in spring 2004, 2005 and 2006. Using the data obtained I focused on three knitters, whose grip of the knitting needles clearly differed from the ergonomically good grip. In addition to them I interviewed one student, who had changed over to more ergonomic way of knitting after participating in the first part of this study. In this respect my study is a several events' case study. In order to analyse my data I used both qualitative and quantitative content analysis methods to complement each other. Most of my research participants had learned to knit in first years of elementary school or comprehensive school. Almost everyone had adopted the basics of knitting by imitating, and many of them had corrected "incorrect" positions from verbal instructions. Through practice the imitated position had gradually become the style unique to each knitter. The findings showed that students' background in knitting is quite varied due to the diverse level of craft teaching. This is reflected in their knitting grips and their interest in knitting. Students do not think that there is one right working grip. The most important thing is that working seems as fluent and relaxed as possible, at which point knitting is easy and flows freely. They often consider their own style so pleasing and well-functioning that they do not think there could be any room for improvement. This study pointed out that, while it is possible to change a knitter's working grip, there is a bigger challenge in acknowledging weaknesses in one's know how. According to the results of my research, the most common working grip among Finnish knitters' corresponds with the grip that has been described as ergonomically good. Over one third of all participants knitted this way. Hands keep the knitting firmly but without tension. The forefinger that guides the yarn from the ball rests gently against the knitting needle, and the yarn goes in front of the first joint of the forefinger. The position of the hands and loops is the same as in the ergonomically good grip, i.e. the fingertips of both hands and the loops are near the tips of the knitting needles, so that the fingers only have to move small distances. When knitters purl and plain, they commonly pick up the yarn from the back of the knitting needle in the same way as when knitting. While researching the common features of working grips I have learned what abnormal grips are like. Although I recognized many different ways to knit, all the peculiar grips were modifications of the continental way of knitting. The results of this study give a clear picture of those points knitters should focus their attention on in order to gain a good hold of the needles.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Spatial variation of climate and the impact of disturbances on local climate and forest recovery in northern Finland

The structure and function of northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and variability and by human-induced disturbances. The projected global change is likely to have a pronounced effect on the distribution and productivity of different species, generating large changes in the equilibrium at the tree-line. In turn, movement of the tree-line and the redistribution of species produce feedback to both the local and the regional climate. This research was initiated with the objective of examining the influence of natural conditions on the small-scale spatial variation of climate in Finnish Lapland, and to study the interaction and feedback mechanisms in the climate-disturbances-vegetation system near the climatological border of boreal forest. The high (1 km) resolution spatial variation of climate parameters over northern Finland was determined by applying the Kriging interpolation method that takes into account the effect of external forcing variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, elevation, sea and lake coverage. Of all the natural factors shaping the climate, the geographical position, local topography and altitude proved to be the determining ones. Spatial analyses of temperature- and precipitation-derived parameters based on a 30-year dataset (1971-2000) provide a detailed description of the local climate. Maps of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, the frost-free period and the growing season indicate that the most favourable thermal conditions exist in the south-western part of Lapland, around large water bodies and in the Kemijoki basin, while the coldest regions are in highland and fell Lapland. The distribution of precipitation is predominantly longitudinally dependent but with the definite influence of local features. The impact of human-induced disturbances, i.e., forest fires, on local climate and its implication for forest recovery near the northern timberline was evaluated in the Tuntsa area of eastern Lapland, damaged by a widespread forest fire in 1960 and suffering repeatedly-failed vegetation recovery since that. Direct measurements of the local climate and simulated heat and water fluxes indicated the development of a more severe climate and physical conditions on the fire-disturbed site. Removal of the original, predominantly Norway spruce and downy birch vegetation and its substitution by tundra vegetation has generated increased wind velocity and reduced snow accumulation, associated with a large variation in soil temperature and moisture and deep soil frost. The changed structural parameters of the canopy have determined changes in energy fluxes by reducing the latter over the tundra vegetation. The altered surface and soil conditions, as well as the evolved severe local climate, have negatively affected seedling growth and survival, leading to more unfavourable conditions for the reproduction of boreal vegetation and thereby causing deviations in the regional position of the timberline. However it should be noted that other factors, such as an inadequate seed source or seedbed, the poor quality of the soil and the intensive logging of damaged trees could also exacerbate the poor tree regeneration. In spite of the failed forest recovery at Tunsta, the position and composition of the timberline and tree-line in Finnish Lapland may also benefit from present and future changes in climate. The already-observed and the projected increase in temperature, the prolonged growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation regime foster tree growth and new regeneration, resulting in an advance of the timberline and tree-line northward and upward. This shift in the distribution of vegetation might be decelerated or even halted by local topoclimatic conditions and by the expected increase in the frequency of disturbances.

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses in northern Europe

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses were studied using a combination of biological and physical indicators preserved in lake sediments. Low-frequency trends, high-frequency events and rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance were probed using pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and oxygen-isotopes from authigenic carbonate and aquatic cellulose, respectively. Pollen and plant macrofossils were employed to shed light on the presence and response rates of plant populations in response to climate changes, particularly focusing on common boreal and temperate tree species. Additional geochemical and isotopic tracers facilitated the interpretation of pollen- and oxygen-isotope data. The results show that the common boreal trees were present in the Baltic region (~55°N) during the Lateglacial, which contrasts with the traditional view of species refuge locations in the south-European peninsulas during the glacial/interglacial cycles. The findings of this work are in agreement with recent paleoecological and genetic evidence suggesting that scattered populations of tree species persisted at higher latitudes, and that these taxa were likely limited to boreal trees. Moreover, the results demonstrate that stepwise changes in plant communities took place in concert with major climate fluctuations of the glacial/interglacial transition. Postglacial climate trends in northern Europe were characterized by rise, maxima and fall in temperatures and related changes in moisture balance. Following the deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and the early Holocene reorganization of the ice-ocean-atmosphere system, the long-term temperature trends followed gradually decreasing summer insolation. The early Holocene (~11,700-8000 cal yr BP) was overall cool, moist and oceanic, although the earliest Holocene effective humidity may have been low particularly in the eastern part of northern Europe. The gradual warming trend was interrupted by a cold event ~8200 cal yr BP. The maximum temperatures, ~1.5-3.0°C above modern values, were attained ~8000-4000 cal yr BP. This mid-Holocene peak warmth was coupled with low lake levels, low effective humidity and summertime drought. The late Holocene (~4000 cal yr BP-present) was characterized by gradually decreasing temperatures, higher lake levels and higher effective humidity. Moreover, the gradual trends of the late Holocene were probably superimposed by higher-frequency variability. The spatial variability of the Holocene temperature and moisture balance patterns were tentatively attributed to the differing heat capacities of continents and oceans, changes in atmospheric circulation modes and position of sites and subregions with respect to large water bodies and topographic barriers. The combination of physical and biological proxy archives is a pivotal aspect of this work, because non-climatic factors, such as postglacial migration, disturbances and competitive interactions, can influence reshuffling of vegetation and hence, pollen-based climate reconstructions. The oxygen-isotope records and other physical proxies presented in this work manifest that postglacial climate changes were the main driver of the establishment and expansion of temperate and boreal tree populations, and hence, large-scale and long-term vegetation patterns were in dynamic equilibrium with climate. A notable exception to this pattern may be the postglacial invasion of Norway spruce and the related suppression of mid-Holocene temperate forest. This salient step in north-European vegetation history, the development of the modern boreal ecosystem, cannot be unambiguously explained by current evidence of postglacial climate changes. The results of this work highlight that plant populations, including long-lived trees, may be able to respond strikingly rapidly to changes in climate. Moreover, interannual and seasonal variation and extreme events can exert an important influence on vegetation reshuffling. Importantly, the studies imply that the presence of diffuse refuge populations or local stands among the prevailing vegetation may have provided the means for extraordinarily rapid vegetation responses. Hence, if scattered populations are not provided and tree populations are to migrate long distances, their capacity to keep up with predicted rates of future climate change may be lower than previously thought.