Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Retirement Transition and Well-being : A 16-year Longitudinal Study

The ageing of the labour force and falling employment rates have forced policy makers in industrialized countries to find means of increasing the well-being of older workers and of lengthening their work careers. The main objective of this thesis was to study longitudinally how health, functional capacity, subjective well-being, and lifestyle change as people grow older, and what effect retirement has on these factors and on their relationships. The present study is a follow-up questionnaire study of Finnish municipal workers, conducted in 1981 to 1997 at the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. In 1981, a postal questionnaire was sent to 7344 municipal workers in different parts of Finland. The respondents were born between 1923 and 1937. A total of 6257 persons responded to the first questionnaire. In the end, a total of 3817 persons had responded to all four (1981, 1985, 1992, 1997) questionnaires. (The response rate was 69% of the living participants). Cross-tabulations, comparison of means, logistic regression analyses and general linear models with repeated measures were used to derive the results. The transition from work life to retirement, and the following years as a pensioner were associated with many changes. Involvement in various activities increased during the transition stage but later decreased to the previous level. Physical exercise was an exception: it became increasingly popular over the years. Perceived health improved markedly from the working stage to the retirement transition stage, even though morbidity increased steadily during the follow-up. On the other hand, functional capacity decreased over the follow-up, especially among those who were occupationally active until the retirement stage. Subjective well-being remained stable during the follow-up period. There were, however, great differences based on the type of work, favouring those whose work had been mental in nature. The impact of activity level on maintaining well-being became greater during the follow-up, whereas the effect of physical functioning diminished. Good physical functioning and an active life-style contributed to staying on at work until normal retirement age. Also work-related factors, i.e. possibilities for development and influence at work, responsibility for others, meaningful work, and satisfaction with working time arrangements were positively related to continuing working. The transition from work to retirement had a positive impact on a person s health and functional capacity. The study results support the view that it should be possible to ease one s work pace during the last years of a work career. This might lower the threshold between work and retirement and convince people that there will still be time to enjoy retirement also a few years later.

The effects of stall surfaces and milk yield on the lying behavior of dairy cow

The importance of lying behavior to dairy cows and the feasible definition of lying has attracted many studies on the subject. Cattle show both behavioral and physiological stress responses when subjected to thwarting of their lying behavior. If cows are unable to lie down they later compensate for lost lying time when possible. Environmental factors such as housing and bedding systems have been noted to affect the time spent lying, but there is usually large variation in lying time between individuals. Internal factors such as the reproductive stage, age and health of cows affect their lying time and can cause variation. However, the effect of higher milk production on behavior has not previously been illuminated. The objective of this study was to provide data applicable for the improvement of resting conditions of cows. The preference of stall surface material, differences in normal behavior per unit time and various health measures were observed. The aim was to evaluate lying behavior and cow comfort on different stall bedding materials. In addition, the effect of milk yield on behavior was examined in a tie stall experiment. The preferences for surface materials were investigated in 5 experiments using 3 surface materials with bedding manipulations. According to the results, the cows preferred abundant straw bedding and soft rubber mats. However, they showed an aversion to sand bedding. Some individuals even refused to use stalls with sand when no organic bedding material was present. However, this study was unable to determine the reason for the avoidance, as neither the sand particle size nor thermal properties appeared critical. However, previous exposure to particular surface materials increased the preference for them. The amount of straw bedding was found to be an important factor affecting the preferences for stalls, and the lying time in stalls increased when the flooring softness was improved by applying straw or by installing elastic mats. Despite sand being the least preferred flooring material in preference tests, the health of legs improved during exposure to sand-floored stalls. Moreover cows using sand were cleaner than those that used straw stalls. Thus, sand bedding entailed some health benefits despite the contradictory results of preference tests, which more strongly reflected the perceptions of individual animals. Milk yield was observed to affect behavior by reducing the lying time, possibly due to factors other than longer duration of eating. High yielding cows seemed to intensify their lying bouts, as they were observed to lie with the neck muscles relaxed sooner after lying down than lower yielding cows. In conclusion, cows were found to prefer softer stall surface materials and organic bedding material. In addition, the lying time was reduced by a high milk yield, although the lying time seemed to be important for resting. Cows might differ in the needs for their lying environment. The management of dairy cows should eliminate any unnecessary prevention of lying, as even in tie-stalls high yielding cows seem to be affected by time constraints. Adding fresh bedding material to stalls increases the comfort of any stall flooring material.

The prevention of workplace bullying as a question of human resource management: measures adopted and underlying organizational factors

The aim of this study has been to analyze measures adopted to counteract workplace bullying from the perspective of human resource management. First, the kind of measures that are adopted to prevent bullying were examined. Second, factors affecting the extent of such measures were explored. The introduction of written anti-bullying policies and the provision of information were found to be the most common measures adopted. The policies strongly emphasized the role of supervisors and the immediate superior. Measures to counteract bullying were positively related to the adoption of ‘sophisticated’ human resource practices, previous negative publicity concerning bullying and the presence of a young human resource manager. The results, however, also indicated that imitation seemed to provide an important impetus behind anti-bullying efforts.

Corporate Governance in European Banks: Essays on Bank Ownership

Banks are important as they have a central role in the financial system, where funds are channelled either through financial intermediaries, such as banks, or through financial markets, hence promoting growth in any economy. Recently, we have been reminded of the drawbacks of the central role of banks. The current financial crisis, which started out as a sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US, has become a global financial crisis with substantial impact on the real economy in many countries. Some of the roots to the current financial crisis can be sought in the changing role of banks and in bank corporate governance. Moreover, the substantial revitalising measures taken have been justified by the central role of banks. Not only are banks important, they are also very special. The fact that banks are regulated in conjunction with greater opacity, make bank corporate governance different from corporate governance in non-bank companies. Surprisingly little is, however, known about bank corporate governance, in particularly, in a European setting. Hence, the objective of this doctoral thesis is to provide new insights in this research area by examining banks from 37 different European countries. Each of the three essays included in the doctoral thesis examines a particular aspect of bank corporate governance. In the first essay the interaction between the regulatory environment a bank operates in and its ownership structure is explored. Indicators of the severity of the moral hazard problem induced by the deposit insurance system and implicit too-big-to-fail government guarantee, particular features of deposit insurance systems as well as legal protection of shareholders, legal origin of a country and level of integration to the European community are used in the analysis. The empirical findings confirm previous findings on the link between legal protection of shareholders and ownership structure. Moreover, they show that differences in deposit insurance system features can explain some of the differences in ownership structure across European banks. In the second essay the impact of management and board ownership on the profitability of banks with different strategy is examined. The empirical findings suggest that the efficiency of these two particular corporate governance mechanisms varies with the characteristics of the agency problem faced by the bank. More specifically, management ownership is important in opaque non-traditional banks, whereas board ownership is important in traditional banks, where deposit insurance reduces the monitoring incentives of outsiders. The higher profitability does, however, go together with higher risk. In the third essay the profitability and risk of commercial, savings and cooperative banks are compared. The empirical findings suggest that distinct operational and ownership characteristics rather than only the mere fact that a bank is a commercial, savings or cooperative bank explain the profitability and risk differences. The main insight from the three essays is that a number of different aspects should be addressed simultaneously in order to give the complexity of bank corporate governance justice.

Organizational Measures Taken against Workplace Bullying: The Case of Finnish Municipalities

Although workplace bullying and other inappropriate treatment in the workplace have received growing attention, especially in Northern Europe, in the past few decades, little research has so far been conducted about the prevention of and intervention in such phenomena. This paper provides a review of different organizational measures typically recommended for preventing and intervening in workplace bullying and other forms of inappropriate treatment in the workplace. These measures include anti-bullying policies, training and information, appropriate job designs, active monitoring, and early intervention. As for intervention, both informal and formal strategies are discussed. Furthermore, the paper reports findings from a study among Finnish municipalities on the extent to which these measures are actually used in Finland, a country that has fairly recently introduced anti-bullying legislation.

Functional outcome and health-related quality of life after traumatic brain injury in the framework of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF)

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects people of all ages and is a cause of long-term disability. In recent years, the epidemiological patterns of TBI have been changing. TBI is a heterogeneous disorder with different forms of presentation and highly individual outcome regarding functioning and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The meaning of disability differs from person to person based on the individual s personality, value system, past experience, and the purpose he or she sees in life. Understanding of all these viewpoints is needed in comprehensive rehabilitation. This study examines the epidemiology of TBI in Finland as well as functioning and HRQoL after TBI, and compares the subjective and objective assessments of outcome. The frame of reference is the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). The subjects of Study I represent the population of Finnish TBI patients who experienced their first TBI between 1991 and 2005. The 55 Finnish subjects of Studies II and IV participated in the first wave of the international Quality of life after brain injury (QOLIBRI) validation study. The 795 subjects from six language areas of Study III formed the second wave of the QOLIBRI validation study. The average annual incidence of Finnish hospitalised TBI patients during the years 1991-2005 was 101:100 000 in patients who had TBI as the primary diagnosis and did not have a previous TBI in their medical history. Males (59.2%) were at considerably higher risk of getting a TBI than females. The most common external cause of the injury was falls in all age groups. The number of TBI patients ≥ 70 years of age increased by 59.4% while the number of inhabitants older than 70 years increased by 30.3% in the population of Finland during the same time period. The functioning of a sample of 55 persons with TBI was assessed by extracting information from the patients medical documents using the ICF checklist. The most common problems were found in the ICF components of Body Functions (b) and Activities and Participation (d). HRQoL was assessed with the QOLIBRI which showed the highest level of satisfaction on the Emotions, Physical Problems and Daily Life and Autonomy scales. The highest scores were obtained by the youngest participants and participants living independently without the help of other people, and by people who were working. The relationship between the functional outcome and HRQoL was not straightforward. The procedure of linking the QOLIBRI and the GOSE to the ICF showed that these two outcome measures cover the relevant domains of TBI patients functioning. The QOLIBRI provides the patients subjective view, while the GOSE summarises the objective elements of functioning. Our study indicates that there are certain domains of functioning that are not traditionally sufficiently documented but are important for the HRQoL of persons with TBI. This was the finding especially in the domains of interpersonal relationships, social and leisure activities, self, and the environment. Rehabilitation aims to optimize functioning and to minimize the experience of disability among people with health conditions, and it needs to be based on a comprehensive understanding of human functioning. As an integrative model, the ICF may serve as a frame of reference in achieving such an understanding.

Geometric Characterizations for Patterson-Sullivan Measures of Geometrically Finite Kleinian Groups

The main results of this thesis show that a Patterson-Sullivan measure of a non-elementary geometrically finite Kleinian group can always be characterized using geometric covering and packing constructions. This means that if the standard covering and packing constructions are modified in a suitable way, one can use either one of them to construct a geometric measure which is identical to the Patterson-Sullivan measure. The main results generalize and modify results of D. Sullivan which show that one can sometimes use the standard covering construction to construct a suitable geometric measure and sometimes the standard packing construction. Sullivan has shown also that neither or both of the standard constructions can be used to construct the geometric measure in some situations. The main modifications of the standard constructions are based on certain geometric properties of limit sets of Kleinian groups studied first by P. Tukia. These geometric properties describe how closely the limit set of a given Kleinian group resembles euclidean planes or spheres of varying dimension on small scales. The main idea is to express these geometric properties in a quantitative form which can be incorporated into the gauge functions used in the modified covering and packing constructions. Certain estimation results for general conformal measures of Kleinian groups play a crucial role in the proofs of the main results. These estimation results are generalizations and modifications of similar results considered, among others, by B. Stratmann, D. Sullivan, P. Tukia and S. Velani. The modified constructions are in general defined without reference to Kleinian groups, so they or their variants may prove useful in some other contexts in addition to that of Kleinian groups.

Microfinance, Efficiency and Agricultural Production in Bangladesh

The objectives of this study were to make a detailed and systematic empirical analysis of microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers in Bangladesh and also examine how efficiency measures are influenced by the access to agricultural microfinance. In the empirical analysis, this study used both parametric and non-parametric frontier approaches to investigate differences in efficiency estimates between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers. This thesis, based on five articles, applied data obtained from a survey of 360 farm households from north-central and north-western regions in Bangladesh. The methods used in this investigation involve stochastic frontier (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) in addition to sample selectivity and limited dependent variable models. In article I, technical efficiency (TE) estimation and identification of its determinants were performed by applying an extended Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function. The results show that farm households had a mean TE of 83% with lower TE scores for the non-borrowers of agricultural microfinance. Addressing institutional policies regarding the consolidation of individual plots into farm units, ensuring access to microfinance, extension education for the farmers with longer farming experience are suggested to improve the TE of the farmers. In article II, the objective was to assess the effects of access to microfinance on household production and cost efficiency (CE) and to determine the efficiency differences between the microfinance participating and non-participating farms. In addition, a non-discretionary DEA model was applied to capture directly the influence of microfinance on farm households production and CE. The results suggested that under both pooled DEA models and non-discretionary DEA models, farmers with access to microfinance were significantly more efficient than their non-borrowing counterparts. Results also revealed that land fragmentation, family size, household wealth, on farm-training and off farm income share are the main determinants of inefficiency after effectively correcting for sample selection bias. In article III, the TE of traditional variety (TV) and high-yielding-variety (HYV) rice producers were estimated in addition to investigating the determinants of adoption rate of HYV rice. Furthermore, the role of TE as a potential determinant to explain the differences of adoption rate of HYV rice among the farmers was assessed. The results indicated that in spite of its much higher yield potential, HYV rice production was associated with lower TE and had a greater variability in yield. It was also found that TE had a significant positive influence on the adoption rates of HYV rice. In article IV, we estimated profit efficiency (PE) and profit-loss between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers by a sample selection framework, which provided a general framework for testing and taking into account the sample selection in the stochastic (profit) frontier function analysis. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, the mean PE of the microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers were estimated at 68% and 52% respectively. This suggested that a considerable share of profits were lost due to profit inefficiencies in rice production. The results also demonstrated that access to microfinance contributes significantly to increasing PE and reducing profit-loss per hectare land. In article V, the effects of credit constraints on TE, allocative efficiency (AE) and CE were assessed while adequately controlling for sample selection bias. The confidence intervals were determined by the bootstrap method for both samples. The results indicated that differences in average efficiency scores of credit constrained and unconstrained farms were not statistically significant although the average efficiencies tended to be higher in the group of unconstrained farms. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, household experience, number of dependents, off-farm income, farm size, access to on farm training and yearly savings were found to be the main determinants of inefficiencies. In general, the results of the study revealed the existence substantial technical, allocative, economic inefficiencies and also considerable profit inefficiencies. The results of the study suggested the need to streamline agricultural microfinance by the microfinance institutions (MFIs), donor agencies and government at all tiers. Moreover, formulating policies that ensure greater access to agricultural microfinance to the smallholder farmers on a sustainable basis in the study areas to enhance productivity and efficiency has been recommended. Key Words: Technical, allocative, economic efficiency, DEA, Non-discretionary DEA, selection bias, bootstrapping, microfinance, Bangladesh.