Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Joint Regression and Association Models for Repeated Categorical Responses

The focus of this study is on statistical analysis of categorical responses, where the response values are dependent of each other. The most typical example of this kind of dependence is when repeated responses have been obtained from the same study unit. For example, in Paper I, the response of interest is the pneumococcal nasopharengyal carriage (yes/no) on 329 children. For each child, the carriage is measured nine times during the first 18 months of life, and thus repeated respones on each child cannot be assumed independent of each other. In the case of the above example, the interest typically lies in the carriage prevalence, and whether different risk factors affect the prevalence. Regression analysis is the established method for studying the effects of risk factors. In order to make correct inferences from the regression model, the associations between repeated responses need to be taken into account. The analysis of repeated categorical responses typically focus on regression modelling. However, further insights can also be gained by investigating the structure of the association. The central theme in this study is on the development of joint regression and association models. The analysis of repeated, or otherwise clustered, categorical responses is computationally difficult. Likelihood-based inference is often feasible only when the number of repeated responses for each study unit is small. In Paper IV, an algorithm is presented, which substantially facilitates maximum likelihood fitting, especially when the number of repeated responses increase. In addition, a notable result arising from this work is the freely available software for likelihood-based estimation of clustered categorical responses.

Homoclinic Splitting without Trees

We study a Hamiltonian describing a pendulum coupled with several anisochronous oscillators, giving a simple construction of unstable KAM tori and their stable and unstable manifolds for analytic perturbations. When the coupling takes place through an even trigonometric polynomial in the angle variables, we extend analytically the solutions of the equations of motion, order by order in the perturbation parameter, to a large neighbourhood of the real line representing time. Subsequently, we devise an asymptotic expansion for the splitting (matrix) associated with a homoclinic point. This expansion consists of contributions that are manifestly exponentially small in the limit of vanishing gravity, by a shift-of-countour argument. Hence, we infer a similar upper bound for the splitting itself. In particular, the derivation of the result does not call for a tree expansion with explicit cancellation mechanisms.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.

Modeling Asymmetries in Financial Data with Multiplicative Error Models

This thesis addresses modeling of financial time series, especially stock market returns and daily price ranges. Modeling data of this kind can be approached with so-called multiplicative error models (MEM). These models nest several well known time series models such as GARCH, ACD and CARR models. They are able to capture many well established features of financial time series including volatility clustering and leptokurtosis. In contrast to these phenomena, different kinds of asymmetries have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In this thesis asymmetries arise from various sources. They are observed in both conditional and unconditional distributions, for variables with non-negative values and for variables that have values on the real line. In the multivariate context asymmetries can be observed in the marginal distributions as well as in the relationships of the variables modeled. New methods for all these cases are proposed. Chapter 2 considers GARCH models and modeling of returns of two stock market indices. The chapter introduces the so-called generalized hyperbolic (GH) GARCH model to account for asymmetries in both conditional and unconditional distribution. In particular, two special cases of the GARCH-GH model which describe the data most accurately are proposed. They are found to improve the fit of the model when compared to symmetric GARCH models. The advantages of accounting for asymmetries are also observed through Value-at-Risk applications. Both theoretical and empirical contributions are provided in Chapter 3 of the thesis. In this chapter the so-called mixture conditional autoregressive range (MCARR) model is introduced, examined and applied to daily price ranges of the Hang Seng Index. The conditions for the strict and weak stationarity of the model as well as an expression for the autocorrelation function are obtained by writing the MCARR model as a first order autoregressive process with random coefficients. The chapter also introduces inverse gamma (IG) distribution to CARR models. The advantages of CARR-IG and MCARR-IG specifications over conventional CARR models are found in the empirical application both in- and out-of-sample. Chapter 4 discusses the simultaneous modeling of absolute returns and daily price ranges. In this part of the thesis a vector multiplicative error model (VMEM) with asymmetric Gumbel copula is found to provide substantial benefits over the existing VMEM models based on elliptical copulas. The proposed specification is able to capture the highly asymmetric dependence of the modeled variables thereby improving the performance of the model considerably. The economic significance of the results obtained is established when the information content of the volatility forecasts derived is examined.

On the Rademacher maximal function

Tools known as maximal functions are frequently used in harmonic analysis when studying local behaviour of functions. Typically they measure the suprema of local averages of non-negative functions. It is essential that the size (more precisely, the L^p-norm) of the maximal function is comparable to the size of the original function. When dealing with families of operators between Banach spaces we are often forced to replace the uniform bound with the larger R-bound. Hence such a replacement is also needed in the maximal function for functions taking values in spaces of operators. More specifically, the suprema of norms of local averages (i.e. their uniform bound in the operator norm) has to be replaced by their R-bound. This procedure gives us the Rademacher maximal function, which was introduced by Hytönen, McIntosh and Portal in order to prove a certain vector-valued Carleson's embedding theorem. They noticed that the sizes of an operator-valued function and its Rademacher maximal function are comparable for many common range spaces, but not for all. Certain requirements on the type and cotype of the spaces involved are necessary for this comparability, henceforth referred to as the “RMF-property”. It was shown, that other objects and parameters appearing in the definition, such as the domain of functions and the exponent p of the norm, make no difference to this. After a short introduction to randomized norms and geometry in Banach spaces we study the Rademacher maximal function on Euclidean spaces. The requirements on the type and cotype are considered, providing examples of spaces without RMF. L^p-spaces are shown to have RMF not only for p greater or equal to 2 (when it is trivial) but also for 1 < p < 2. A dyadic version of Carleson's embedding theorem is proven for scalar- and operator-valued functions. As the analysis with dyadic cubes can be generalized to filtrations on sigma-finite measure spaces, we consider the Rademacher maximal function in this case as well. It turns out that the RMF-property is independent of the filtration and the underlying measure space and that it is enough to consider very simple ones known as Haar filtrations. Scalar- and operator-valued analogues of Carleson's embedding theorem are also provided. With the RMF-property proven independent of the underlying measure space, we can use probabilistic notions and formulate it for martingales. Following a similar result for UMD-spaces, a weak type inequality is shown to be (necessary and) sufficient for the RMF-property. The RMF-property is also studied using concave functions giving yet another proof of its independence from various parameters.

Ihanne ja todellisuus : Jäsenyyteen sitoutuminen Suomen evankelis-luterilaisessa kirkossa 1960-luvulta 2000-luvulle

The subject of the study is the ideal and reality of commitment to membership in the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland from the 1960s to the 2000s. The research task is to ascertain what manner of commitment the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland expects from its members (the ideal) and how in reality membership of the Church is realized (empiria). The research object is also to study the extent to which the ideal of commitment evinced by the Church and the actual relation of commitment to the Church changed during the research period. Additionally, those factors were analysed which influence the relation between the ideal and reality of commitment. In the analysis of the ideal of commitment the research data are official documents of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland. They include confessions of the Church, Catechisms, Christian doctrine, joint strategies and plans of the Church, likewise the Church Act and Church Order. The reality of commitment is explored on the basis of Church membership, participation in parish activity and the private practice of religion, likewise attitude to Christian faith. The empirical data of the study comprise Church statistics, material from Statistics Finland and relevant surveys implemented during the research period. The ideal of commitment alongside membership includes knowing the basic tenets of Christian faith and family life based on prayer and participation in liturgical cycles. A member of the Church is expected to take care of his/her faith by living in participation of the Word and sacrament, bearing responsibility for the parish and faithfully discharging his/her worldly obligations. There have been no major changes in the ideal of commitment during the research period. On the contrary, the reality of commitment has changed. Although the majority of Finns are still members of the Church, there has been a constant decline in their share of the population. The same can be stated with respect to parish life. This has its own strengths, among them Church rites, parish activity around feast days and also work with children and confirmation training. However, the general trend is towards a decline in participation. There has also been a decrease in commitment to belief in God as taught by the Church. On the other hand, private religious observance has not changed at all. From the perspective of commitment the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland exists in a state of tension between the theological ideal and sociological empiria. Matters exerting a particular influence over the relation between ideal and reality are communality and varying conceptions of the Church, likewise contextuality and the related private Christianity. Societal change poses a challenge to traditional Church communality. A decline in communality has in turn led to a decline in belonging to the Church. Weakening awareness of membership has undermined the handing down of the tradition among younger generations. Modernization has influence the identity of the Church and brought the Church to an internal divergence. This way it has been able to retain its structure as a folk church but at the same time it has lost its opportunities for the formation of a clear identity. The Church has adjusted to societal change by outward-directed activities (performance) alongside the purely religious message (function). The tension between an unchanged message and a changed operating environment has increased. The challenge of contextuality has led the Church to review parish life, the nature of teaching and activity and the language used by the Church, likewise the cultural modus. Increasingly privatized Christianity challenges above all the theology and teaching of the Church, but also the life of worship and relation to cultural life.

State Agent, Identity and the "New World Order" : Reconstructing Polish Defence Identity after the Cold War Era

National identity signifies and makes state s defence- and foreign policy behaviour meaningful. National consciousness is narrated into existence by narratives upon one s own exceptionalism and Otherness of the other nations. While national identity may be understood merely as a self-image of a nation, defence identity refers to the borders of Otherness and issues that have been considered as worth defending for. As national identities and all the world order models are human constructions, they may be changed by the human efforts as well; states and nations may deliberately promote communitarian or even cosmopolitan equality and tolerance without borders of Otherness. The main research question of the thesis is: How does Poland constitute herself as a nation and a state agent in the current world order and to what extent have contextual foreign and defence policy interactions changed the Polish defence identity during the post-Cold War era? The main empirical argument of the thesis is: Poland is a narrated idea of a Christian Catholic nation-state, which the Polish State, the Catholic Church of Poland, the Armed Forces of Poland as well as a majority of the Polish nation share. Polish defence identity has been almost impenetrable to contextual foreign and defence policy interactions during the post-Cold War era. While Christian religious ontology binds corporate Poland together, allowing her to survive any number of military and political catastrophes, it simultaneously brings her closer to the USA, raises tensions in the infidel EU-context, and restrains corporate Poland s pursuit of communitarian, or even cosmopolitan, global equality and tolerance. It is not the case that corporate Poland s foreign and defence policy orientation is instinctively Atlanticist by nature, as has been argued. Rather, it has been the State s rational project to overcome a habituated and reified fear of becoming geopolitically sandwiched between Russian and German Others by leaning on the USA; among the Polish nation, support for the USA has been declining since 2004. It is not corporate Poland either that has turned into a constructive European , as has been argued, but rather the Polish nation that has, at least partly, managed to emancipate itself from its habituation to a betrayal by Europe narrative, since it favours the EU as much as it favours NATO. It seems that in the Polish case a truly common European CFSP vis-à-vis Russia may offer a solution that will emancipate the Polish State from its habituated EU-sceptic role identity and corporate Poland from its narrated borders of Otherness towards Russia and Germany, but even then one cannot be sure whether any other perspective than the Polish one on a common stand towards Russia would satisfy the Poles themselves.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Exploiting ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System for numerical weather prediction

Data assimilation provides an initial atmospheric state, called the analysis, for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This analysis consists of pressure, temperature, wind, and humidity on a three-dimensional NWP model grid. Data assimilation blends meteorological observations with the NWP model in a statistically optimal way. The objective of this thesis is to describe methodological development carried out in order to allow data assimilation of ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System (GPS) into the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) NWP system. Geodetic processing produces observations of tropospheric delay. These observations can be processed either for vertical columns at each GPS receiver station, or for the individual propagation paths of the microwave signals. These alternative processing methods result in Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) and Slant Delay (SD) observations, respectively. ZTD and SD observations are of use in the analysis of atmospheric humidity. A method is introduced for estimation of the horizontal error covariance of ZTD observations. The method makes use of observation minus model background (OmB) sequences of ZTD and conventional observations. It is demonstrated that the ZTD observation error covariance is relatively large in station separations shorter than 200 km, but non-zero covariances also appear at considerably larger station separations. The relatively low density of radiosonde observing stations limits the ability of the proposed estimation method to resolve the shortest length-scales of error covariance. SD observations are shown to contain a statistically significant signal on the asymmetry of the atmospheric humidity field. However, the asymmetric component of SD is found to be nearly always smaller than the standard deviation of the SD observation error. SD observation modelling is described in detail, and other issues relating to SD data assimilation are also discussed. These include the determination of error statistics, the tuning of observation quality control and allowing the taking into account of local observation error correlation. The experiments made show that the data assimilation system is able to retrieve the asymmetric information content of hypothetical SD observations at a single receiver station. Moreover, the impact of real SD observations on humidity analysis is comparable to that of other observing systems.

Lightcurve inversion for asteroid spins and shapes

Knowledge of the physical properties of asteroids is crucial in many branches of solar-system research. Knowledge of the spin states and shapes is needed, e.g., for accurate orbit determination and to study the history and evolution of the asteroids. In my thesis, I present new methods for using photometric lightcurves of asteroids in the determination of their spin states and shapes. The convex inversion method makes use of a general polyhedron shape model and provides us at best with an unambiguous spin solution and a convex shape solution that reproduces the main features of the original shape. Deriving information about the non-convex shape features is, in principle, also possible, but usually requires a priori information about the object. Alternatively, a distribution of non-convex solutions, describing the scale of the non-convexities, is also possible to be obtained. Due to insufficient number of absolute observations and inaccurately defined asteroid phase curves, the $c/b$-ratio, i.e., the flatness of the shape model is often somewhat ill-defined. However, especially in the case of elongated objects, the flatness seems to be quite well constrained, even in the case when only relative lightcurves are available. The results prove that it is, contrary to the earlier misbelief, possible to derive shape information from the lightcurve data if a sufficiently wide range of observing geometries is covered by the observations. Along with the more accurate shape models, also the rotational states, i.e., spin vectors and rotation periods, are defined with improved accuracy. The shape solutions obtained so far reveal a population of irregular objects whose most descriptive shape characteristics, however, can be expressed with only a few parameters. Preliminary statistical analyses for the shapes suggests that there are correlations between shape and other physical properties, such as the size, rotation period and taxonomic type of the asteroids. More shape data of, especially, the smallest and largest asteroids, as well as the fast and slow rotators is called for in order to be able to study the statistics more thoroughly.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Itämafia : Uhkakuvapolitiikka, rikosilmiöt ja kulttuuriset merkitykset

The Eastern Mafia Threat policy, crime phenomena, and cultural meanings An interdisciplinary research on the crime phenomena and the threat policy relating to the organized crime and the mafia of Russia and Estonia is based on 151 expert interviews, statistics, documents, research literature, and press material. The main part of the material consists of interviews of the Finnish, Estonian and Russian police authorities specialized in the problem of organized crime, and the reports on the crime situation drawn up in the Finnish diplomatic representations in Tallinn and St Petersburg. The interviews have been gathered in the years 1996-2001. The main theoretical tools of the research are constructivist research on social problems, and political psychology. Definitional processes of social problems and cultural semantic structures behind them are identified in the analysis and connected to the analysis of the crime cases. Both in the Anglo-American and Russian cultural frames there appears an inflated and exaggerated talk, according to which the mafia rules everything in Russia and is spreading everywhere. There is the traditional anti-Semitic paranoia in the core of this cultural symbiosis produced by Russian legal nihilism, the theory of totalitarianism of Sovietology, and the inertia of Russian anti-capitalism. To equate the Sicilian Mafia with Russia is an anachronism, since no empirical proof of systematic uncontrolled violence or absolute power vacuum in Russia can be found. In the Anglo-American policy of threat images, "the Russian mafia" was seen as a commodified conspiracy theory, which the police, the media, and the research took advantage of, blurring the line between fact and fiction. In Finland, the evolution of the policy of threat images proceeded in three phases: Initially, extensive rolling of refugees and criminals from Russia to Finland was emphasized in the beginning of the 1990's. In the second phase, the eastern mafia was said to infiltrate all over Finnish society and administration. Finland was, however, found immune to this kind of spreading. In the third phase, in the 21st century, the organized crime of Finland was said to be lead from abroad. In Finland, the policy of threat images was especially canalised to moral panics connected to "eastern prostitution". In Estonia, the policy of threat images emphasized the crime organized by the Russian authorities and politicians in order to weaken Estonia. In Russia, the policy of threat images emphasized the total criminalizing of society caused by criminal capitalism. In every country, the policy of threat images was affected by a so-called large-group identity, a term by Vamik Volkan, in which a so-called chosen trauma caused a political paranoia of an outer and inner danger. In Finland, procuring, car theft, and narcotics crimes were at their widest arranged by the Finnish often with the help of the Estonians. The Russians had no influence in the most serious violent crimes in Finland, although the number of assassinations were at least 5, 000 in Russia in the 1990's. In Russia, the assassinations were on one hand connected to marital problems, on the other hand to the pursuit of public attention and a hoped-for effect by the aid of the murder of an influential person. In the white-collar crime phenomena between Finland and Russia, the Finnish state and Finnish corporations gained remarkable benefit of the frauds aimed at the states of the Soviet Union and Russia in 1980's-21st century. The situation of Estonia was very difficult compared to that of Russia in the 1990's, which was manifested in the stagnation of the Estonian police and judicial authorities, the crimes of the police and the voluntary paramilitary organization, bomb explosions, the rebellion called "the jaeger crisis" in the voluntary paramilitary organization, and the "blood autumn" of Eastern Virumaa, in other words terror. The situation of Estonia had a powerful effect on the crime situation of Finland and on the security of the Finnish diplomats. In the continuum of the Finnish policy of threat images, Russia and the Russians were, however, presented as a source of a marked danger.

Drug cultures in Estonia : contexts, meanings and patterns of illicit drug use.

In Estonia, illicit drug use hardly existed before the social changes of the 1990s when, as a result of economic and cultural transformations, the country became part of a world order centred in the West. On the one hand, this development is due to the spread of international youth culture, which many young people have perceived as being associated with drugs; on the other hand, it results from the marginalisation of a part of the population. The empirical part of the study is based mostly on in-depth interviews with different drug users conducted during between 1998 and 2002. Complementary material includes the results of participant observations, interviews with key experts, and the results of previous quantitative studies and statistics. The young people who started experimenting with illicit drugs from the 1990s and onwards perceived them as a part of an attractive lifestyle - a Western lifestyle, a point which is worth stressing in the case of Estonia. Although the reasons for initiation into drug use were similar for the majority of young people, their drug use habits and the impact of the drug use on their lives began to differ. I argue that the potential pleasure and harm which might accompany drug use is offset by the meanings attached to drugs and the sanctions and rituals regulating drug use. In the study both recreational and problem use have been analysed from different aspects in seven articles. I have investigated different types of drug users: new bohemians, cannabis users, in whose case partying and restrictive drug use is positively connected to their lives and goals within established society; stimulant-using party people for whom drugs are a means of having fun but who do not have the same restrictive norms regulating their drug use as the former and who may get into trouble under certain conditions; and heroin users for whom the drug rapidly progressed from a means of having fun to an obligation due to addiction. The research results point at the importance not only of the drug itself and the socio-economic situation of the user, but also of the cultural and social context within which the drug is used. The latter may on occasions be a crucial factor in whether or not initial drug use eventually leads to addiction.