Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Water-ethanol mixtures by molecular dynamics and x-ray Compton scattering

Water-ethanol mixtures are commonly used in industry and house holds. However, quite surprisingly their molecular-level structure is still not completely understood. In particular, there is evidence that the local intermolecular geometries depend significantly on the concentration. The aim of this study was to gain information on the molecular-level structures of water-ethanol mixtures by two computational methods. The methods are classical molecular dynamics (MD), where the movement of molecules can be studied, and x-ray Compton scattering, in which the scattering cross section is sensitive to the electron momentum density. Firstly, the water-ethanol mixtures were studied with MD simulations, with the mixture concentration ranging from 0 to 100%. For the simulations well-established force fields were used for the water and ethanol molecules (TIP4P and OPLS-AA, respectively). Moreover, two models were used for ethanol, rigid and non-rigid. In the rigid model the intramolecular bond lengths are fixed, whereas in the non-rigid model the lengths are determined by harmonic potentials. Secondly, mixtures with three different concentrations employing both ethanol models were studied by calculating the experimentally observable x-ray quantity, the Compton profile. In the MD simulations a slight underestimation in the density was observed as compared to experiment. Furthermore, a positive excess of hydrogen bonding with water molecules and a negative one with ethanol was quantified. Also, the mixture was found more structured when the ethanol concentration was higher. Negligible differences in the results were found between the two ethanol models. In contrast, in the Compton scattering results a notable difference between the ethanol models was observed. For the rigid model the Compton profiles were similar for all the concentrations, but for the non-rigid model they were distinct. This leads to two possibilities of how the mixing occurs. Either the mixing is similar in all concentrations (as suggested by the rigid model) or the mixing changes for different concentrations (as suggested by the non-rigid model). Either way, this study shows that the choice of the force field is essential in the microscopic structure formation in the MD simulations. When the sources of uncertainty in the calculated Compton profiles were analyzed, it was found that more statistics needs to be collected to reduce the statistical uncertainty in the final results. The obtained Compton scattering results can be considered somewhat preliminary, but clearly indicative of the behaviour of the water-ethanol mixtures when the force field is modified. The next step is to collect more statistics and compare the results with experimental data to decide which ethanol model describes the mixture better. This way, valuable information on the microscopic structure of water-ethanol mixtures can be found. In addition, information on the force fields in the MD simulations and on the ability of the MD simulations to reproduce the microscopic structure of binary liquids is obtained.

Kannustaminen ja moraali : Kannustamisen idea suomalaisessa yhteiskuntapolitiikassa 1990-luvulta alkaen

Even though the concept of incentive has become very popular in Finnish welfare politics since the economic crisis of the 1990s, the content of this concept is not clear. Fundamentally, it is a matter of controlling the behaviour of individuals to accord with the authorities' objectives and interests in gaining cooperative benefits. As early as in Plato's Republic, citizens were encouraged to use their abilities and skills in a way most beneficial to the society. Similarly, in today's welfare society citizens are urged to produce common goods and distribute welfare to enable a better life for all through cooperation. The fundamental question is to what extent society can shape individuals' preferences with incentives, and encourage them without external coercion to choose actions beneficial for both the society and the individuals themselves. The objective of the incentive institution is to gain cooperative benefits, but there are different views on how it should be implemented. For example, the incentive system in the Finnish welfare society includes several economic and social conceptions which adjust the distribution of welfare. From an economic perspective, the objective of the incentive system is economic efficiency, while from a social perspective it is the securing of social rights and citizens' equality. The market mechanism, for example, can at best lead to economically efficient activity, but it might sacrifice fairness and equality. In this research, the idea of activation policy expands to cover normative and social incentives, in addition to the economic factors affecting human choice and social actions. Desirable co-living and meaningful cooperation have some prerequisites. We need the expanded idea of activation to study them, and to maintain them in society. The themes discussed in all the ten chapters aim at evaluating the preconditions of a just society. This study provides tools to examine the changes in the welfare state, also from the viewpoint of normative ethics. This offers a morally and conceptually wider perspective than a normative viewpoint of economics alone. In terms of the values of our welfare society, it makes a difference how the relationship between the legalities of economics and citizens' well-being is understood. The research asks whether economic benefits to the society should be allowed to supersede the principles of human dignity Key words:incentives, activation policy, morality, social philosophy, social justice, policy paradigm

Context-dependent mate choice in the sand goby, Pomatoschistus minutus

The results presented in this thesis show that all females of a given population do not necessarily choose similar mating partners. Specifically, partner preferences of a fish, the sand goby (Pomatoschistus minutus), varied among individual females and depended on the social context at the time of choice. I also show that females assess multiple mate choice cues simultaneously; partner preferences were based more strongly on an interaction effect between different choice cues than on any individual cue. Furthermore, I found that preferred matings involved fitness benefits in the form of increased offspring success, but these benefits were not significantly affected by mate compatibility. Hence, mate choice for partner compatibility does not appear to be an important determinant of the observed variation in female mate preferences in this species. The context-dependency of female mating preferences revealed is relevant to how genetic variation in sexually selected traits might be maintained: as the mating success of a certain male type varies according to the choice context, directional sexual selection on male traits is shown to be less intense than generally thought making for a slower loss of genetic variation in these traits. Mating preferences of sand gobies were assessed by giving females a binary choice between males that differed in body size and/or other focus traits. These association preferences were found to be sexually motivated, repeatable and to correspond to actual mating decisions.

The effects of eutrophication on alternative reproductive tactics in threespine sticklebacks

When organisms compete for mates and fertilisations, the process of sexual selection drives the evolution of traits that increase reproductive success. The traits targeted by selection, and the extent to which they change, are constrained by the local environment. Sexual selection due to female mate choice can be undermined by alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs), which refers to discontinuous variation in traits or behaviours used in reproduction. As human activities are rapidly changing our planet, this raises the question how ARTs will be affected. Fish show a bewildering diversity of ARTs, which make them good model organisms to answer these questions. One example of human-induced environmental change, which is affecting aquatic ecosystems around the world, is eutrophication, the over-enrichment of water bodies with nutrients. One of its effects is decreased underwater visibility due to increases in both turbidity and vegetation density. The aims of this thesis were to investigate the effects increased turbidity and vegetation density have on an ART in sticklebacks, a fish common to marine and fresh water bodies of the Northern hemisphere. I furthermore investigated how this affected sexual selection for male size, a trait commonly under selection. I used a combination of behavioural observations in microcosms, where I manipulated underwater visibility, with collection of genetic material to reconstruct parentage of broods, and thus identify sneak fertilisations. The results show that turbidity might have weak negative effects on the frequency of sneaking behaviour, although this behaviour was rather infrequent in these experiments, which complicates firm conclusions. In dense vegetation the number of sneak fertilisations decreased slightly, as fewer nesting males sneaked, while the number of non-nesting males sneaking remained constant. The paternity analyses revealed that a significantly smaller fraction of eggs was sneak fertilised under dense vegetation. Furthermore, amongst the nesting males that sneaked, the amount of eggs sneak fertilised correlated positively with courtship success. A reduction in sneaking by these males under dense vegetation equalised the distribution of fertilisation success, in turn contributing to a decrease in the opportunity for selection. Under dense vegetation significantly more males built nests, which has also been observed in previous field studies. In a separate experiment we addressed if such changes in the proportion of nesters and non-nesters, without changes in visibility, affected the incidence of sneak fertilisation. My results show this was not the case, likely because sneaking is an opportunistic tactic shown by both nesters and non-nesters. Non-nesters did sneak proportionately more when there were many of them, which could be due to changes in the cost-benefit ratio of sneaking. As nesters can only attack one intruder at a time, the costs and risks per sneaker will decrease as the number of sneakers increases. The defensive behaviours shown by the nesters before spawning shifted to a more aggressive form of nest defence. This could be because less aggressive behaviours lose their effectiveness when the number of intruders increases. It could also indicate that the risks associated with aggressive behaviours decrease when there are fewer fellow nesters, as other studies indicate nesters are competitive and aggressive individuals. Under turbid conditions I did not detect changes in the opportunity for selection, based on fertilisation success, nor was male size under significant selection under clear or turbid conditions. More thorough analyses under densely vegetated conditions across the nesting, courtship and fertilisation stages revealed a decrease in the opportunity for selection across all stages. A reduction in sneaking by nesters contributed to this. During the nesting stage, but not during later stages, body size was under significant directional selection under sparse, but not dense vegetation. This illustrates the importance of considering all selection stages to get a complete picture of how environmental changes affect sexual selection. Leaving out certain stages or subgroups can result in incomplete or misleading results.

Antipredator behaviour of Baltic planktivores

Predation is an important source of mortality for most aquatic animals. Thus, the ability to avoid being eaten brings substantial fitness benefits to individuals. Predator detection abilities and antipredator behaviour were examined in various planktivores, i.e. the littoral mysids Neomysis integer and Praunus flexuosus, three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus larvae, pelagic mysids Mysis mixta and M. relicta, and the predatory cladoceran Cercopagis pengoi, with cues from their respective predators European perch Perca fluviatilis and Baltic herring Clupea harengus membras. The use of different aquatic macrophytes as predation refuges by the littoral planktivores was also examined. All pelagic planktivores and stickleback larvae were able to detect the presence of their predator by chemical cues alone. The littoral mysids N. integer and P. flexuosus responded only when chemical and visual predator cues were combined. The responses of stickleback larvae were stronger to the combined cues than the chemical cue alone. A common antipredator behaviour in all of the planktivores studied was decreased ingestion rate in response to predator cues. N. integer and stickleback larvae also decreased their swimming activity. Pelagic mysids and C. pengoi altered their prey selectivity patterns in response to predator cues. The effects of predator cues on the swarming behaviour of N. integer were examined. Swarming brings clear antipredator advantages to N. integer, since when they feed in a swarm, they do not significantly decrease their feeding rate. However, the swarming behaviour of N. integer was not affected by predation risk, but was instead a fixed strategy. Despite the presence or absence of predator cues, N. integer individuals attempted to associate with a swarm and preferred larger to smaller swarms. In studies with aquatic macrophytes, stickleback larvae and P. flexuosus utilized vegetation as a predation refuge, spending more time within vegetation when under predation threat. The two macroalgal species studied, bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and stonewort Chara tomentosa, were preferred by P. flexuosus, whereas Eurasian watermilfoil Myriophyllum spicatum was strongly avoided by N. integer and stickleback larvae. In fact, when in dense patches in aquaria, M. spicatum caused acute and high mortality (> 70%) in littoral mysids, but not in sticklebacks, whereas C. tomentosa and northern watermilfoil M. sibiricum did not. In contrast, only 2-4% mortality in N. integer was observed with intact and broken stems of M. spicatum in field experiments. The distribution of littoral mysids in different vegetations, however, suggests that N. integer avoids areas vegetated by M. spicatum.

Men´s health behaviour, health beliefs and need for health counselling : A study amongst 40-year-old males from one Helsinki City region

Tavoitteena oli tutkia 40-vuotiaiden miesten terveyskäyttäytymistä, terveysuskomuksia ja miesten saamaa terveysneuvontaa Helsingissä. 273 miestä vastasi kyselyyn ja osallistui terveystutkimuksiin. Terveydentilan perusteella miehet arvioitiin matalan (n=145) ja korkean (n=128) riskin ryhmiin. Khin neliö-testillä tutkittiin elämäntapa- ja riskitekijöitä koetun terveyden (hyvä, keskinkertainen/huono) luokissa ja verrattiin matalan ja korkean riskin ryhmiä em. tekijöiden osalta. Askeltavalla logistisella regressiomallilla analysoitiin tulosmuuttujia taustatekijöiden, terveyskäyttäytymisen, terveysuskomusten ja kliinisten riskitekijöiden avulla sekä arvioitiin oireiden ja vaivojen suhdetta koettuun terveydentilaan. Korkeassa riskissä olevien terveyttä seurattiin vuosina 2001–2004 analysoimalla mini-intervention vaikutusta terveysriskeihin ja elintapoihin varianssianalyysin avulla (ANOVA) (n=46). Matalasta vastausprosentista johtuen (39.6%), ei-vastanneiden aineistoa kerättiin käyttämällä syvähaastattelua (n=28) sekä puhelinkyselyä (n=40). Lopullinen aineisto koostui 341 miehestä. Tulokset osoittivat, että miehillä oli sydän- ja verisuonitautiriskejä. Kaksi kolmesta osallistuneista oli ylipainoisia tai lihavia, yli kolmanneksella vyötärönympärys oli ≥100 cm, ja yli 40%:llä oli diastolinen verenpaine ≥90 mmHg. Yli puolet tupakoi päivittäin ja 40% käytti alkoholia runsaasti. Ristiriitaisuutta ilmensi se, että huolimatta riskitekijöistä noin puolet miehistä koki terveydentilansa hyväksi. Sairauden tai vamman puute, hyvä suun terveydentila ja normaali vyötärönympärys olivat yhteydessä hyväksi koettuun terveydentilaan. Suora yhteys voitiin havaita omaisten tarjoaman neuvonnan ja vähäisen alkoholin käytön välillä. Masennus ja unettomuus olivat voimakkaasti yhteydessä loppuun palamiseen. Miehillä oli erilaisia fyysisiä ja psyykkisiä oireita, jotka korreloivat voimakkaasti masennuksen kanssa. Pieni määrä miehistä koki saaneensa terveysneuvontaa hoitohenkilökunnalta verrattuna perheenjäseniltä saatuun ohjaukseen. Korkeariskisten miesten (n=46) arvot parantuivat merkitsevästi lyhyellä aikavälillä. Kolesteroliarvoja lukuunottamatta ne palautuivat kolmen vuoden kuluttua alkumittausarvoja kohti. Laadullinen tutkimus osoitti, että “ei-vastanneet“ eivät osallistuneet projektiin, sillä he olivat oireettomia tai kiireisiä. Heillä todettiin samoja terveysriskejä kuin projektiin osallistuneilla. Syvähaastattelussa miehet toivat esille kokemuksiaan huolista, vihan tunteista, peloista ja yksinäisyydestä. Hoidonantajien on tärkeää ymmärtää ristiriidat miesten subjektiivisen ja objektiivisen terveydentilan välillä, mikä auttaa havaitsemaan esteitä terveyskäyttäytymiselle. Yhä enemmän tarvitaan yhteistyötä yksityisen ja julkisen terveydenhuollon välillä varmistamaan terveystottumusten jatkuminen miesten keskuudessa.

Suicidal behaviour in bipolar disorder

The Jorvi Bipolar Study (JoBS) is a collaborative ongoing bipolar research project between the Department of Mental Health and Alcohol Research of the National Public Health Institute, Helsinki, and the Department of Psychiatry, Jorvi Hospital, Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH), Espoo, Finland. The JoBS is a prospective, naturalistic cohort study of secondary level care psychiatric out-and inpatients with a new episode of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) bipolar disorder (BD). Altogether, 1630 patients (aged 18-59) years were screened using the Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ) for a possible new episode of DSM-IV BD. 490 patients were interviewed with semi-structured interview [the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, research version with Psychotic Screen (SCID-I/P)]. 191 patients with new episode of DSM-IV BD were included in the bipolar cohort study. Psychiatric comorbidity was evaluated using semi-structured interviews. At 6- and 18-month follow-up, the interviews were repeated and life-chart methodology was used to integrate all available information about nature and duration of all different phases. Suicidal behaviour was examined both at intake and follow-up by psychometric scale [Scale for Suicidal Ideation (SSI)], interviewer s questions and medical and psychiatric records. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate prevalence of suicidal behaviour and incidence of suicide attempts, and examine the wide range of risk factors for attempted suicide both, at intake and follow-up, in representative secondary-level sample of psychiatric in- and outpatients with BD. In this study suicidal behaviour was common among psychiatric patients with BD. During the episode when patients were included into cohort study (index episode), 20% of the patients had attempted suicide and 61% had suicidal ideation. Severity of depressive episode and hopelessness were independent risk factors for suicidal ideation, whereas hopelessness, comorbid personality disorder and previous suicide attempt predicted suicide attempts during the index episode. There were no differences in prevalence of suicidal behaviour between bipolar I and II disorder; the risk factors were overlapping but not identical. During the index episode, suicide attempts took place during depressive, mixed and depressive mixed phases. Furthermore, there were marked differences regarding level of suicidal ideation during different phases, with the highest levels during the mixed phases of the illness. Hopelessness was independently associated with suicidal behaviour during the depressive phase. A subjective rating of severity of depression (Beck Depression Inventory) and younger age predicted suicide attempts during mixed phases. During the 18-month follow-up 20% of patients attempted suicide. Previous suicide attempts, hopelessness, depressive phase at index episode and younger age at intake were independent risk factors for suicide attempts during follow-up. Taken altogether, 55% patients attempted suicide before index episode, during index episode or during follow-up. The incidence of suicide attempts was 37-fold during combined mixed and depressive mixed states and 18-fold during major depressive phase as compared with other phases. Prior suicide attempt and time spent in combined mixed phases - mixed and depressive mixed - and depressive phases independently predicted the suicide attempt during follow-up. More than half of the patients have attempted suicide during their lifetime, a finding which highlights the public health importance of suicidal behaviour in bipolar disorder. Clinically, it is crucial to recognize BD and manage the mixed and depressive phases of bipolar patients fast and effectively, as time spent in depressive and mixed phases involves a remarkably high risk of suicide attempts.

The influence of school smoking policy and school prevention programs on the smoking behaviour of high school students in Prince Edward Island, Canada

The aim of the study was to examine the influence of school smoking policy and school smoking prevention programs on the smoking behaviour of students in high schools in Prince Edward Island using the School Health Action Planning Evaluation System (SHAPES). A total sample included 13,131 observations of students in grades 10-12 in ten high schools in Prince Edward Island over three waves of data collection (1999, 2000, and 2001). Changes in prevalence of smoking and factors influencing smoking behaviour were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Chi-Square tests. Multi-level logistic regression analyses were used to examine how both school and student characteristics were associated with smoking behaviour (I, II, III, IV). Since students were located within schools, a basic 2-level nested structure was used in which individual students (level 1) were nested within schools (level 2). For grade 12 students, the combination of both school policies and programs was not associated with the risk of smoking and the presence of the new policy was not associated with decreased risk of smoking, unless there were clear rules in place (I). For the grade 10 study, (II) schools with both policies and programs were not associated with decreased risk of smoking. However, the smoking behaviour of older students (grade 12) at a school was associated with younger students’ (grade 10) smoking behaviour. Students first enrolled in a high school in grade 9, rather than grade 10, were at increased risk of occasional smoking. For students who transitioned from grade 10 to 12 (III), close friends smoking had a substantial influence on smoking behaviour for both males and females (III). Having one or more close friends who smoke (Odds Ratio (OR) = 37.46; 95% CI = 19.39 to 72.36), one or more smokers in the home (OR = 2.35; 95% CI = 1.67 to 3.30) and seeing teachers and staff smoking on or near school property (OR=1.78; 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.80), were strongly associated with increased risk of smoking for grade 12 students. Smoking behaviour increased for both junior (Group 1) and senior (Group 2) students (IV). Group 1 students indicated a greater decrease in smoking behaviour and factors influencing smoking behaviour compared to those of Group 2. Students overestimating the percentage of youth their age who smoke was strongly associated with increased likelihood of smoking. Smoking rates showed a decreasing trend (1999, 2000, and 2001). However, policies and programs alone were not successful in influencing smoking behaviour of youth. Rather, factors within the students and schools contextual environment influenced smoking behaviour. Comprehensive approaches are required for school-based tobacco prevention interventions. Keywords: schools, policy, programs, smoking prevention, adolescents Subject Terms: school-based programming, public health, health promotion