Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Macrophages in regressed and progressed uveal melanoma

Uveal melanoma (UM) is the most common primary ocular malignancy in adults. In Finland, approximately 50 new cases are diagnosed yearly. Up to 50% of UM metastasize, mostly to the liver, although other organs are also affected. Despite improvements in the management of the primary tumour, the survival rates of patients with metastatic UM are poor. Until the 1970s, UMs were treated by enucleation i.e. removal of the eye. Currently, UM is usually treated by brachytherapy, which is known to influence tumour cells and blood vessels. UMs enucleated both primarily and secondarily after brachytherapy contain tumour-infiltrating macrophages, and a high number of macrophages in primary UM is associated with a shorter survival and a higher microvascular density (MVD) within the tumour tissue. The latter is independently associated with a shorter time to metastatic death. Macrophages have several diverse roles depending on their response to variable signals from the surrounding microenvironment. They function as scavengers, as producers of angiogenic and growth factors as well as proteases, which modulate extracellular matrix. Thus, tumour invasiveness and the risk for metastasis increase with increasing macrophage density. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of regression and progression of UM on macrophage numbers and microcirculation factors. Tumour regression is induced by primary brachytherapy, and tumour progression is evidenced by the development of metastases. Understanding the biological behaviour of UMs in the both states may help us in finding new treatment modalities against this disease. To achieve these aims case-control analyses of irradiated UMs and primarily-enucleated eyes (34 matched pairs) were performed. UMs were stained immunohistochemically to detect macrophages, extravascular matrix (EVM) loops and networks, and MVD. Following brachytherapy, a lower MVD was observed. The average number of macrophages remained unchanged. Considering that irradiated melanomas may still contain proliferating tumour cells, a clinically-relevant consequence of my study would be the reassurance that the risk for metastasis is likely to be reduced, given that the low MVD in untreated UMs indicates a favourable prognosis. The effect of progression on macrophages was studied in a paired analysis of primarily-enucleated UM and their corresponding hepatic metastases (48 pairs). A cross-sectional histopathological analysis of these pairs was carried out by staining both specimens in a similar way to the first study. MVD was greater in hepatic metastases than in corresponding primary tumours, and the survival of the patient tended to be shorter if hepatic metastases had a higher MVD. Hepatic metastases had also more dendritic macrophages than the primary UMs. Thus, the progression to metastasis seems to alter the inflammatory status within the tumour. Furthermore, determining MVD of biopsied hepatic metastases may serve as a supplementary tool in estimating the prognosis of patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. After irradiation, the majority of treated eyes have been clinically observed to have pigmented episcleral deposits. A noncomparative clinical case series of 211 irradiated UM eyes were studied by recording the number and location of pigmented episcleral deposits during follow-up visits after brachytherapy. For the first time, the study described pigmented episcleral deposits, which are found in the most UM eyes after brachytherapy, and proved them to consist of macrophages full with engulfed melanin particles. This knowledge may save patients from unnecessary enucleation, because episcleral pigmented deposits might be mistaken for extrascleral tumour growth. The presence of pigmented macrophage-related episcleral deposits was associated with plaque size and isotope rather than with tumour size, suggesting that, in addition to tumour regression, radiation atrophy of retinal pigment epithelium and choroid contributes to the formation of the deposits. In the paired (the same 34 pairs as in the first study) cross-sectional study of irradiated and non-irradiated UMs, clinically-visible episcleral deposits and migrating macrophages in other extratumoral tissues were studied histopathologically. Resident macrophages were present in extratumoral tissues in eyes with both irradiated and non-irradiated UM. Irradiation increased both the number of CD68+ macrophages in the sclera beneath the tumour and the number of clinically-observed episcleral macrophages aggregates. Brachytherapy seemed to alter the route of migration of macrophages: after irradiation, macrophages migrated preferentially through the sclera while in non-irradiated UMs they seemed to migrate more along the choroid. In order to understand the influence of these routes on tumour progression and regression in the future, labelling and tracking of activated macrophages in vivo is required.

Blue mussel beds as biodiversity hotspots on the rocky shores of the northern Baltic Sea

ABSTRACT The Baltic Sea is a vulnerable ecosystem currently undergoing a number of changes, both natural and human induced. The changes are likely to affect the species found on these shores, e.g. their distribution and interactions with other species. Blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus x Mytilus edulis) provide one of the main biogenic hard structures on the shallow shores of the Baltic Sea where they aggregate into dense beds and provide a number of resources for over 40 associated macrofaunal species, thus functioning as ecosystem engineers. The blue mussel, being a marine species, is highly likely to be affected by any changes in sea water salinity, circulation and/or water balance. These changes could trickle down also to affect the associated macrofaunal communities. The aims of this thesis were three-fold: first, I examined and described the macrofaunal communities found within blue mussel patches since the fauna associated with mussel patches had never been described in the study area prior to this thesis. Second, I explored how changes in mussel density, size as well as patch size and shape would affect the mussel communities. Finally, I tested how general landscape theories derived from terrestrial studies function in blue mussel systems. Theories included the structural heterogeneity hypothesis, species-area relationships, edge effects and patch isolation effects. The work shows that blue mussels in the northern Baltic Sea have an indisputable function as diversity hotspots and that the faunal assemblages found in mussel patches are extremely rich and unique. Further on, it shows that changes in mussel biomass, size, patch size and amount of edge have the potential to alter the faunal assemblages and diversity within patches. Finally, it shows that although some landscape theories, such as the structural heterogeneity hypothesis, seem to apply also in blue mussel communities, others cannot be directly applied due to the different prevailing conditions in the study system. This is a pioneering work looking at diversity shaping processes on the rocky shores of the Gulf of Finland, making up over 40% of the total water basin. A focus on niche construction, positive facilitation effects and ecosystem engineering could provide new insights and methods for conservation biology, but before this can be done, we need to fully understand the circumstances under which a species becomes an ecosystem engineer and recognize the systems in which it functions.

Nulägesanalys av passivhusbyggande i Sverige 2010

Byggsektorn slukar årligen ca 40 % av Sveriges totala energiförbrukning. Nya normer kräver energieffektivare bostäder. Normerna idag fokuserar enbart på driftkostnader och tar inte alls hänsyn till energiförbrukningen och koldioxidavtrycket som själva byggprocessen alstrar. Med höga driftvärden blir energiförbrukningen i byggskedet en liten procent men för passivhus, och ännu högre grad för plusenergihus, som förbrukar ytterst lite energi, blir tillverkningsenergin den avgörande miljöbelastningen. Ny teknik för att uppnå de nya kraven finns i viss utsträckning, men kännedom och kunskap om dem saknas då de fått otillräcklig spridning. En del tekniska lösningar befinner sig fortfarande i en utvecklingsprocess och är inte färdigutvecklade för en större produktion. Ambitionen med denna nulägesanalys och därtill lika inventeringsarbete har varit att fånga in de lösningar och tester som gjorts och ta del av utvärderingarna så att vi kan dra nytta utav dessa i vårt arbete. Denna sammanställning grundar sig på muntlig information vi tagit del av under studiebesöken, ritningar, beskrivningar, protokoll samt rapporter vi samlat in. Syfte Syftet med vår resa till nedanstående objekt var att ta reda på hur flerfamiljshus med passivhus standard är byggda. Vilka stomval har gjorts och av vilken anledning. Vi ville också ta reda på hur man klarat av täthetskraven i de olika projekten samt hur detta mätts. I många fall verkar det som om utformning och arkitektur glöms bort när man ska bygga passivhus som om passivhuskravet vore så betungande att god utformning inte är förening med det. Därför ville vi också bedöma byggnaderna från arkitektoniska aspekter då dessa är av stor vikt för en bra miljö.

Lågtemperaturuppvärmning med tilluftsradiatorer och värmeåtervinning i frånluft : en varsam renovering av flerbostadshus för energieffektivisering

För att nå reella sänkningar av energianvändningen i hela byggnadsbeståndet krävs tillgång till kostnadseffektiva renoveringspaket med energieffektiva systemlösningar där samspel mellan installationssystem och byggnad beaktas. Denna förstudie belyser möjligheter med alternativa renoveringspaket med lågtemperatur-tilluftsradiatorer och värmeåtervinning i frånluften (FX). Systemkombinationer och jämförelser har gjorts med mera etablerade lösningar med traditionella radiatorer, balanserad mekanisk ventilation (FTX) och solvärme. Mindre prövade lösningar såsom frånluftsmoduler (VBX) kopplat till befintliga värmepumpar och behovsstyrd ventilation undersöktes också. Energianvändning och kostnadseffektivitet med de undersökta åtgärdspaketen prövades för två äldre bostadshus med vardera specifika restriktioner: den ena inom fjärrvärmenätet och det andra ett K-märkt hus utanför fjärrvärmenätet. Samtidigt reflekterades det över vilka tekniska lösningar som samtidigt är gynnsammast ur hållbarhetssynpunkt. För flertalet befintliga byggnader behöver såväl metoder som komponenter utvecklas på ett varsamt sätt som uppfyller båda ägarens krav som övergripande mål baserat på systemförutsättning och kostnadseffektivitet. Förstudien visar att:  lågtemperatur-tilluftsradiatorer är en systemkomponent som möjliggör ökad komfort via förvärmning och filtrering av inkommande ventilationsluft, effektivare värmeproduktion och minskning av värmeförluster i distribution av varmvatten. Renovering med installation av FX-system i kombination med lågtemperatur-tilluftradiatorer är ett alternativ till FTX system som begränsar byggåtgärderna i byggnaden och ger lägre livscykelkostnad  Byggnadsskalets täthet blir avgörande för energinyttan båda med FX- och FTX-system. Förstudien visar att FX-system är fördelaktig i byggnader med dålig lufttäthet  I byggnader med befintligt frånluftssystem kan behovsstyrning av ventilationen vara ett enkelt och kostnadseffektivt sätt att sänka ventilationsförlusterna och spara energi som alternativ till att installera återvinningssystem Förstudien visar klart att energieffektiv renovering kan åstadkommas med val av varsamma metoder som också åstadkommer ökad komfort och systemnytta, utanför såväl som inom fjärrvärmenätet. Samtidigt kan ägarens krav på kostandsnytta nås och byggnaders bevarandekrav uppfyllas. Nu krävs det demonstrationsprojekt för att inte minst sprida kunskap i branschen men också applicering på större bostadsområden.