Essays on Procurement, Scoring Auction, and Quality Manipulation Corruption

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Scoring rules and competitive behavior in best value construction auctions

This paper examines the extent to which engineers can influence the competitive behavior of bidders in Best Value or multi-attribute construction auctions, where both the (dollar) bid and technical non-price criteria are scored according to a scoring rule. From a sample of Spanish construction auctions with a variety of bid scoring rules, it is found that bidders are influenced by the auction rules in significant and predictable ways. The bid score weighting, bid scoring formula and abnormally low bid criterion are variables likely to influence the competitiveness of bidders in terms of both their aggressive/conservative bidding and concentration/dispersion of bids. Revealing the influence of the bid scoring rules and their magnitude on bidders’ competitive behavior opens the door for the engineer to condition bidder competitive behavior in such a way as to provide the balance needed to achieve the owner’s desired strategic outcomes.

Equivalência conceitual, de itens e semântica da versão brasileira do instrumento Dysfunctional Voiding Scoring System (DVSS) para avaliação de disfunção do trato urinário inferior em crianças

Investiga-se a equivalência conceitual, de itens e semântica entre o instrumento Dysfunctional Voiding Scoring System (DVSS), utilizado para avaliar a disfunção funcional do trato urinário inferior em crianças, concebido em inglês e uma versão em português. Na primeira etapa realizou-se a avaliação da equivalência conceitual e de itens, seguida de duas traduções do instrumento original para o português. Na segunda etapa foram realizadas 63 entrevistas, com crianças de 3 a 10 anos e responsáveis, e modificação de itens segundo dificuldades de interpretação. Na terceira etapa foi realizada a retradução do instrumento em português para o inglês e avaliação da equivalência semântica. Na quarta etapa, a versão pré-teste foi aplicada em vinte duplas de crianças de 3 a 10 anos e responsáveis. Apresenta-se o instrumento em português com equivalência conceitual, de itens e semântica. Sugere-se que a aplicação do DVSS seja realizada por meio de entrevista por profissional treinado e não baseada em autopreenchimento como proposto no instrumento original.

An auction theoretical approach to fiscal wars

I examine a situation where a firm chooses to locate a new factory in one of several jurisdictions. The value of the factory may differ among jurisdictions and it depends on the private information held by each jurisdiction. Jurisdictions compete for the location of the new factory. This competition may take the form of expenditures already incurred on infrastructure, commitments to spend on infrastructure, tax incentives or even cash payments. The model combines two elements that are usually considered separately; competition is desirable because we want the factory to be located in the jurisdiction that values it the most, but competition in itself is wasteful. I show that the expected total amount paid to the firm under a large family of arrangements is the same. Moreover, I show that the ex-ante optimal mechanism that is, the mechanism that guarantees that the firm chooses the jurisdiction with the highest value for the factory, minimizes the total expected payment to the firm, and balances the budget in an ex-ante sense - can be implemented by running a standard auction and subsidizing participation.

Auction price anomalies: Evidence from wool auctions in Australia

Using detailed Australian wool auction data we test for further evidence of pricing anomalies at sequential auctions. We find that an anomaly frequently exists and order is frequently endogenously determined. Moreover, prices increase through some sales and decrease through others. We examine whether it is possible to explain the variation in the anomaly across sales and conclude that there is no systematic relationship between the direction of the price anomaly and the characteristics of the wool or the auction. We do, however, find evidence that an anomaly, is more likely in longer sales.

Evaluation of the respiratory muscle strength of cirrhotic patients: Relationship with Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system

Pulmonary abnormalities are observed in chronic hepatopathy. The measurement of the maximum inspiratory and expiratory pressure may evaluate lung function and the risks associated with hepatic transplantation. Thus, the present work sought to evaluate the respiratory muscle strength of 29 patients between 17 and 63 years old who were enrolled for liver transplantation. The patients were classified according to Child-Turcotte-Pugh score as A, B, or C, and also according to a physiotherapeutic evaluation, which included measurement of respiratory muscle strength by means of a digital manovactrometer, which determines the maximum inspiratory pressure (MaxIP) and the maximum expiratory pressure (MaxEP). The tests were performed with seated individuals having their nostrils obstructed by a nasal clip. The MaxIP was measured during the effort initiated in the residual volume, whereas the MaxEP was measured during the effort initiated in the total pulmonary capacity, keeping pressures stable for at least 1 second. The statistical analysis was performed through using the Mann-Whitney test with a 5% level of significance. The MaxIP values of Child A 95.5 +/- 40.507 cm H2O (average +/- DP) and Child B 87.2 +/- 35.02 patients were higher than those for Child C patients (34.83 +/- 3.68; P <.05). Similar results were observed for the MaxEP of Child A and B groups (116.25 +/- 31.98 and 97.28 +/- 31.08, respectively; P <.05), versus the Child C group (48.16 +/- 22.60). Between groups A and B, the MaxEP were similar (P >.05). We concluded that Child C patients display muscle weakness significantly greater than that of subjects classified as Child A or B.

Assessment of synovitis with contrast-enhanced MRI using a whole-joint semiquantitative scoring system in people with, or at high risk of, knee osteoarthritis: the MOST study

Objectives To introduce a comprehensive and reliable scoring system for the assessment of whole-knee joint synovitis based on contrast-enhanced (CE) MRI. Methods Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) is a cohort study of people with, or at high risk of, knee osteoarthritis (OA). Subjects are an unselected subset of MOST who volunteered for CE-MRI. Synovitis was assessed at 11 sites of the joint. Synovial thickness was scored semiquantitatively: grade 0 (< 2 mm), grade 1 (2-4 mm) and grade 2 (> 4 mm) at each site. Two musculoskeletal radiologists performed the readings and inter-and intrareader reliability was evaluated. Whole-knee synovitis was assessed by summing the scores from all sites. The association of Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index pain score with this summed score and with the maximum synovitis grade for each site was assessed. Results 400 subjects were included (mean age 58.8 +/- 7.0 years, body mass index 29.5 +/- 4.9 kg/m(2), 46% women). For individual sites, intrareader reliability (weighted kappa) was 0.67-1.00 for reader 1 and 0.60-1.00 for reader 2. Inter-reader agreement (kappa) was 0.67-0.92. For the summed synovitis scores, intrareader reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)) was 0.98 and 0.96 for each reader and inter-reader agreement (ICC) was 0.94. Moderate to severe synovitis in the parapatellar subregion was associated with the higher maximum pain score (adjusted OR (95% CI), 2.8 (1.4 to 5.4) and 3.1 (1.2 to 7.9), respectively). Conclusions A comprehensive semiquantitative scoring system for the assessment of whole-knee synovitis is proposed. It is reliable and identifies knees with pain, and thus is a potentially powerful tool for synovitis assessment in epidemiological OA studies.

Scoring occupational categories for social research: A review of current practice, with Australian examples

The scoring of occupational categories has along history. After reviewing the historical background, we develop and discuss the properties of two new Australian scales based on current theorising in stratification research. The first is based on the operation of the labour market and scores occupations to reflect their central role in converting educational credentials into market income. The second is based on patterns of social interaction and scores occupations to reflect the choices that people make in marriage markets. While these two scales are not theoretically or empirically equivalent, they are closely related and provide equally valid, but alternative, ways of measuring the underlying stratification order of modern societies.

Análisis del credit scoring

El problema de la morosidad está cobrándose una gran importancia en los países desarrollados. En este trabajo realizamos un análisis de la capacidad predictiva de dos modelos paramétricos y uno no paramétrico abordando, en este último, el problema del sobreaprendizaje mediante la validación cruzada que, muy habitualmente, se obvia en este tipo de estudios. Además proponemos la distinción de tres tipos de solicitudes dependiendo de su probabilidad cumplimiento: conceder, no conceder (de forma automática), y dudoso y, por consiguiente, proceder a su estudio manual por parte del personal bancario.

ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

Auction of financial transmission rights in electricity market environment

An auction model is used to increase the individual profits for market players with products they do not use. A Financial Transmission Rights Auction has the goal of trade transmission rights between Bidders and helps them raise their own profits. The ISO plays a major rule on keep the system in technical limits without interfere on the auctions offers. In some auction models the ISO decide want bids are implemented on the network, always with the objective maximize the individual profits for all bidders in the auction. This paper proposes a methodology for a Financial Transmission Rights Auction and an informatics application. The application receives offers from the purchase and sale side and considers bilateral contracts as Base Case. This goal is maximize the individual profits within the system in their technical limits. The paper includes a case study for the 30 bus IEEE test case.

Distributed Model Predictive Control for Housing with Hourly Auction of Available Energy

This paper presents a distributed model predictive control (DMPC) for indoor thermal comfort that simultaneously optimizes the consumption of a limited shared energy resource. The control objective of each subsystem is to minimize the heating/cooling energy cost while maintaining the indoor temperature and used power inside bounds. In a distributed coordinated environment, the control uses multiple dynamically decoupled agents (one for each subsystem/house) aiming to achieve satisfaction of coupling constraints. According to the hourly power demand profile, each house assigns a priority level that indicates how much is willing to bid in auction for consume the limited clean resource. This procedure allows the bidding value vary hourly and consequently, the agents order to access to the clean energy also varies. Despite of power constraints, all houses have also thermal comfort constraints that must be fulfilled. The system is simulated with several houses in a distributed environment.

Distributed MPC for Thermal Comfort and Load Allocation with Energy Auction

This paper presents a distributed predictive control methodology for indoor thermal comfort that optimizes the consumption of a limited shared energy resource using an integrated demand-side management approach that involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control objective for each subsystem (house or building) aims to minimize the energy cost while maintaining the indoor temperature inside comfort limits. In a distributed coordinated multi-agent ecosystem, each house or building control agent achieves its objectives while sharing, among them, the available energy through the introduction of particular coupling constraints in their underlying optimization problem. Coordination is maintained by a daily green energy auction bring in a demand-side management approach. Also the implemented distributed MPC algorithm is described and validated with simulation studies.

Credit Scoring: Aplicação da regressão logística vs redes neuronais artificiais na avaliação do risco de crédito no mercado Cabo-verdiano

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial de obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Innovation scoring no sector de serviços de saúde: um estudo de caso

Baseado no relatório avaliado na disciplina de Economia e Gestão da Inovação (Prof. Maria Luísa Lopes), no programa doutoral de Avaliação de Tecnologia, na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia - Universidade Nova de Lisboa em Janeiro de 2011