Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

The effect of implementing a modified early warning scoring (MEWS) system on the adequacy of vital sign documentation

Introduction and objectives Early recognition of deteriorating patients results in better patient outcomes. Modified early warning scores (MEWS) attempt to identify deteriorating patients early so timely interventions can occur thus reducing serious adverse events. We compared frequencies of vital sign recording 24 h post-ICU discharge and 24 h preceding unplanned ICU admission before and after a new observation chart using MEWS and an associated educational programme was implemented into an Australian Tertiary referral hospital in Brisbane. Design Prospective before-and-after intervention study, using a convenience sample of ICU patients who have been discharged to the hospital wards, and in patients with an unplanned ICU admission, during November 2009 (before implementation; n = 69) and February 2010 (after implementation; n = 70). Main outcome measures Any change in a full set or individual vital sign frequency before-and-after the new MEWS observation chart and associated education programme was implemented. A full set of vital signs included Blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), temperature (T°), oxygen saturation (SaO2) respiratory rate (RR) and urine output (UO). Results After the MEWS observation chart implementation, we identified a statistically significant increase (210%) in overall frequency of full vital sign set documentation during the first 24 h post-ICU discharge (95% CI 148, 288%, p value <0.001). Frequency of all individual vital sign recordings increased after the MEWS observation chart was implemented. In particular, T° recordings increased by 26% (95% CI 8, 46%, p value = 0.003). An increased frequency of full vital sign set recordings for unplanned ICU admissions were found (44%, 95% CI 2, 102%, p value = 0.035). The only statistically significant improvement in individual vital sign recordings was urine output, demonstrating a 27% increase (95% CI 3, 57%, p value = 0.029). Conclusions The implementation of a new MEWS observation chart plus a supporting educational programme was associated with statistically significant increases in frequency of combined and individual vital sign set recordings during the first 24 h post-ICU discharge. There were no significant changes to frequency of individual vital sign recordings in unplanned admissions to ICU after the MEWS observation chart was implemented, except for urine output. Overall increases in the frequency of full vital sign sets were seen.

Scoring-thresholding pattern based text classifier

A big challenge for classification on text is the noisy of text data. It makes classification quality low. Many classification process can be divided into two sequential steps scoring and threshold setting (thresholding). Therefore to deal with noisy data problem, it is important to describe positive feature effectively scoring and to set a suitable threshold. Most existing text classifiers do not concentrate on these two jobs. In this paper, we propose a novel text classifier with pattern-based scoring that describe positive feature effectively, followed by threshold setting. The thresholding is based on score of training set, make it is simple to implement in other scoring methods. Experiment shows that our pattern-based classifier is promising.

Prognostic factors for malignant mesothelioma in 142 patients : validation of CALGB and EORTC prognostic scoring systems

Background The incidence of malignant mesothelioma is increasing. There is the perception that survival is worse in the UK than in other countries. However, it is important to compare survival in different series based on accurate prognostic data. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Cancer and Leukaemia Group B (CALGB) have recently published prognostic scoring systems. We have assessed the prognostic variables, validated the EORTC and CALGB prognostic groups, and evaluated survival in a series of 142 patients. Methods Case notes of 142 consecutive patients presenting in Leicester since 1988 were reviewed. Univariate analysis of prognostic variables was performed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Statistically significant variables were analysed further in a forward, stepwise multivariate model. EORTC and CALGB prognostic groups were derived, Kaplan-Meier survival curves plotted, and survival rates were calculated from life tables. Results Significant poor prognostic factors in univariate analysis included male sex, older age, weight loss, chest pain, poor performance status, low haemoglobin, leukocytosis, thrombocytosis, and non-epithelial cell type (p<0.05). The prognostic significance of cell type, haemoglobin, white cell count, performance status, and sex were retained in the multivariate model. Overall median survival was 5.9 (range 0-34.3) months. One and two year survival rates were 21.3% (95% CI 13.9 to 28.7) and 3.5% (0 to 8.5), respectively. Median, one, and two year survival data within prognostic groups in Leicester were equivalent to the EORTC and CALGB series. Survival curves were successfully stratified by the prognostic groups. Conclusions This study validates the EORTC and CALGB prognostic scoring systems which should be used both in the assessment of survival data of series in different countries and in the stratification of patients into randomised clinical studies.

Scoring rules and abnormally low bids criteria in construction tenders: A taxonomic review

In the global construction context, the Best Value or Most Economically Advantageous Tender is becoming a widespread approach for contractor selection, as an alternative to other traditional awarding criteria such as the Lowest Price. In these multi-attribute tenders, the owner or auctioneer solicits proposals containing both a price bid and additional technical features. Once the proposals are received, each bidder's price bid is given an economic score according to a scoring rule, generally called an Economic Scoring Formula (ESF) and a technical score according to pre-specified criteria. Eventually, the contract is awarded to the bidder with the highest weighted overall score (economic + technical). However, Economic Scoring Formula selection by auctioneers is invariably and paradoxically a highly intuitive process in practice, involving few theoretical or empirical considerations, despite having being considered traditionally and mistakenly as objective, due to its mathematical nature. This paper provides a taxonomic classification of a wide variety of ESF and Abnormally Low Bid Criteria (ALBC) gathered in several countries with different tendering approaches. Practical implications concern the optimal design of price scoring rules in construction contract tenders, as well as future analyses of the effects of ESF and ALBC on competitive bidding behaviour.

Interpersonal coordination tendencies supporting the creation/prevention of goal scoring opportunities in futsal

Research on 1vs1 sub-phases in team sports has shown how one player coordinates his/her actions with his/her opponent and the location of a target/goal to attain performance objectives. In this study, we extended this approach to analysis of 5vs5 competitive performance in the team sport of futsal to provide a performance analysis framework that explains how players coordinate their actions to create/prevent opportunities to score goals. For this purpose, we recorded all 10 futsal matches of the 2009 Lusophony Games held in Lisbon. We analysed the displacement trajectories of a shooting attacker and marking defender in plays ending in a goal, a goalkeeper's save, and a defender's interception, at four specific moments during performance: (1) assisting attacker's ball reception; (2) moment of passing; (3) shooter's ball reception, and; (4) shot on goal. Statistical analysis showed that when a goal was scored, the defender's angle to the goal and to the attacker tended to decrease, the attacker was able to move to the same distance to the goal alongside the defender, and the attacker was closer to the defender and moving at the same velocity (at least) as the defender. This study identified emergent patterns of coordination between attackers and defenders under key competitive task constraints, such as the location of the goal, which supported successful performance in futsal.

Coronary calcium scoring: Calcium location needs to be integrated!

Coronary calcium scoring (CCS) has been a topic of great interest lately. In a large population-based study comprising 6,722 patients, Detrano et al. (1) have effectively shown that CCS can be a strong predictor of incident coronary heart disease among different racial groups. Henneman et al. (2) have, however, reported that CCS does not reliably exclude the presence of (significant) atherosclerosis. This topic is quite controversial as there is significant evidence from Detrano's work that higher CCS is associated with an increased risk of acute coronary events. We think that the location of calcium within the coronary arteries should also be considered. Li et al. (3,4) have shown that the position of the calcium in the plaque is a better determinant of plaque vulnerability than the total calcium load. Using a biomechanical model, predicted maximum stress was found to increase by 47.5% when calcium deposits were located in the thin fibrous cap. The presence of calcium deposits in the lipid core or remote from the fibrous cap resulted in no increase in maximum stress. It was also noted that the presence of calcification within the lipid core may even stabilize the plaque. Integration of calcium location in CCS will, therefore, enable better assessment of severity of atherosclerosis and prediction of future cardiovascular events.

Oesophagogastric ulceration in pigs: A visual morphological scoring guide

Objective: To provide a visual guide for oesophagogastric ulcer scoring and recognition of different morphological changes in the pars oesophagea. Design: Pig stomachs were collected at slaughter and visually evaluated and scored for parakeratosis, erosion and ulceration in the pars oesophagea. Results: A visual and descriptive guide is presented that will aid in the objective assessment and scoring of oesophagogastric ulceration in pigs within the pig health monitoring system (PHMS), namely to the four categories of 0 = normal stomach, 1 = parakeratosis and thickened epithelium, 2 = erosions and 3 = developed ulcers with and without stenosis. Conclusion: A visual guide has been developed that illustrates the full range of morphological changes that can occur in the pars oesophagea of the stomach within the few currently recognised stages of the disease.

Two new atom centered fragment descriptors and scoring function enhance classification of antibacterial activity

Classification of pharmacologic activity of a chemical compound is an essential step in any drug discovery process. We develop two new atom-centered fragment descriptors (vertex indices) - one based solely on topological considerations without discriminating atomor bond types, and another based on topological and electronic features. We also assess their usefulness by devising a method to rank and classify molecules with regard to their antibacterial activity. Classification performances of our method are found to be superior compared to two previous studies on large heterogeneous data sets for hit finding and hit-to-lead studies even though we use much fewer parameters. It is found that for hit finding studies topological features (simple graph) alone provide significant discriminating power, and for hit-to-lead process small but consistent improvement can be made by additionally including electronic features (colored graph). Our approach is simple, interpretable, and suitable for design of molecules as we do not use any physicochemical properties. The singular use of vertex index as descriptor, novel range based feature extraction, and rigorous statistical validation are the key elements of this study.