Skenaariotyöskentely organisaation oppimisen välineenä

Skenaarioita käytetään usein ylimmän johdon strategiasuunnitteluvälineinä. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää vaikuttavatko skenaariot ja skenaariotyöskentely organisaation oppimiseen laajemminkin kuin yksilötasolla ja minkälaista oppimista tapahtuu sekä minkälaisia ominaisuuksia skenaariotyötä johtavalla olisi hyvä olla. Tutkimusaineisto on kerätty haastattelemalla skenaariotöitä johtanutta henkilöä sekä niihin osallistuneita henkilöitä. Tutkittavana oli kaksi skenaariotyötä, joista toisen tavoittena oli kuvata tulevaisuuden mobiileja liiketoimintamalleja ja toisen mallintaa verkko-operaattoriliiketoiminnan tulevaisuutta. Tutkimuksen aikana selvisi, että skenaarioilla ja skenaariotyöskentelyllä voi tukea organisaation oppimista niin yksilön, ryhmän/organisaation kuin organisaatioiden väliselläkin tasolla. Skenaariotyötä tekevällä ryhmällä ja sitä johtavalla henkilöllä on vaikutusta organisaation oppimiseen. Erityisen tärkeää organisaation oppimisen kannalta on, kuinka skenaariotyöskentely aloitetaan ja lopetetaan.

Notes on Emerging Technologies

This dissertation considers the impact of technology foresight in innovation within the context of a technology driven development. The main hypothesis made was that by using different methods of foresight in the industry level significant value could be created. The question was approached through a case study in portable fuel cell technology. The theoretical background of the study draws from Innovation, Product Development, Management of Technology, and Technology Foresight. The connection within the topics is made by analyzing foresight, not in a policy view as often done in Europe, but in a micro-level. Focusing mostly on how a technology driven development scenario could be analyzed. The study is based on a bibliometric, extrapolation and patent analysis within the context of a case study. In addition, a large two-year Delphi study was conducted. The study was finalized with a scenario work on the future possibilities of the case study technology. Original publications also consider several methodological issues. In the context of the case study, the study questions the practicality of establishing a portable fuel cell technology in Finland showing several impractical assumptions has been made. In a more conceptual level, the study makes notions on two underlying factors: policy-push technologies and growth of data. Policy-push questions in which level a policy effort towards a single technology is practical. The European foresight effort is more directed towards policy decisions in contrast to US foresight, which is to some extent corporate driven. Although the policy-based foresight has produced significant results in the European context, policy led efforts towards a single technology are challenging. Growth of data argues on the challenges produced by the large-scale application of quantitative measures of foresight. Bibliometric studies and trend extrapolations have been taken advantage of the increasing number of databases made available, and used these as the basis for forecasts. However, the relationship with actual development and quantitative evidence is still unproven.

Toimintopohjainen ennustemalli palvelualan yritykselle

Kohdeorganisaatiossa on havaittu tarvetta kustannusten tarkemmalle ennustamiselle liiketoimintaympäristön ja palvelutarjooman muutosten seurauksena. Diplomityön päätavoitteena on selvittää, kuinka palvelualan yritykselle rakennetaan toimintopohjainen kustannusten ennustemalli. Päätavoitetta lähestytään selvittämällä mallin rakennusvaiheet, soveltuvuus kohdeorganisaatiolle ja siitä saatava lisäarvo. Tutkielmassa käytetään konstruktiivista tutkimusotetta. Malli pohjautuu toimintopohjaisen suunnittelun ja budjetoinnin suljetun silmukkamallin teoriaan. Empiriaosassa suoritetaan mallin rakentaminen vaiheittain. Työn tulokset osoittavat toimintopohjaisen suunnittelun ja budjetoinnin suljetun silmukkamallin soveltuvuuden kohdeorganisaation toimintojen mallinnukseen. Toimintopohjaisesta ennustemallista on saatavissa lisäarvoa budjetointiin ja skenaariotyöhön. Mallin avulla voidaan tarkastella budjetoinnin realistisuutta. Skenaariotyöstä voidaan saada tukea päätöksentekoon, koska erilaisten toimenpiteiden vaikutuksia voidaan arvioida resurssitarpeen ja kustannusten näkökulmasta.

Helsinki hub – new traffic flows and business networks

This thesis is the Logistics Development Forum's assignment and the work dealing with the development of the Port of Helsinki as part of Helsinki hub. The Forum aims to develop logistics efficiency through public-private co-operation and development of the port is clearly dependent on both factors. Freight volumes in the Port of Helsinki are the biggest single factor in hub and, therefore, the role of the port of the entire hub development is strong. The aim is to look at how the port will develop as a result of changes in the foreign trade of Finland and the Northern European logistics trends in 25 years time period. Work includes the current state analysis and scenario work. The analyses are intended to find out, which trends are the most important in the port volume development. The change and effect of trends is examined through scenarios based on current state. Based on the work, the structure of Finnish export industry and international demand are in the key role in the port volume development. There is significant difference between demands of Finnish exporting products in different export markets and the development between the markets has different impacts on the port volumes by mass and cargo type. On the other hand, the Finnish economy is stuck in a prolonged recession and competition between ports has become a significant factor in the individual port's volume development. Ecological valuesand regulations have changed the competitive landscape and maritime transport emissions reductions has become an important competitive factor for short routes in the Baltic Sea, such as in the link between Helsinki and Tallinn.

Possibilidades e limites da avaliação da qualidade de vida : análise dos instrumentos WHOQOL e modelos clássicos de qualidade de vida no trabalho = Possibilities and limits of quality of life assessment : analysis of WHOQOL instruments and quality of work life classical models

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Work domain analysis for training-system definition and acquisition

Training-needs analysis is critical for defining and procuring effective training systems. However, traditional approaches to training-needs analysis are not suitable for capturing the demands of highly automated and computerized work domains. In this article, we propose that work domain analysis can identify the functional structure of a work domain that must be captured in a training system, so that workers can be trained to deal with unpredictable contingencies that cannot be handled by computer systems. To illustrate this argument, we outline a work domain analysis of a fighter aircraft that defines its functional structure in terms of its training objectives, measures of performance, basic training functions, physical functionality, and physical context. The functional structure or training needs identified by work domain analysis can then be used as a basis for developing functional specifications for training systems, specifically its design objectives, data collection capabilities, scenario generation capabilities, physical functionality, and physical attributes. Finally, work domain analysis also provides a useful framework for evaluating whether a tendered solution fulfills the training needs of a work domain.

Synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys scenarios in risk habitat megacity (RHM)

The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustainable development in megacities and urban agglomerations. The analysis of international scenario surveys is an essential component within RHM. The scenario analysis will be the basis and source for the development of own RHM-framework scenarios and for defining specific driving forces of change.

Assessing scenarios on the future of work

In this paper will be discussed different types of scenarios and the aims for using scenarios. Normaly they are being used by organisations due to the need to anticipate processes, to support policy-making and to understand the complexities of relations. Such organisations can be private companies, R&D organisations and networks of organisations, or even by some public administration institutions. Some cases will be discussed as the methods for ongoing scenario-building process (Shell Internacional). Scenarios should anticipate possible relations among social actors as in the Triple Helix Model, and is possible to develop strategic intelligence in the innovation process that would enable the construction of scenarios. Such processes can be assessed. The focus will be made in relation to the steps chosen for the WORKS scenarios. In this case is there a model of work changes that can be used for foresight? Differences according to sectors were found, as well on other dimensions. Problems of assessment are analysed with specific application to the scenario construction methods.

Is ambient intelligence a truly human-centric paradigm in industry? Current research and application scenario

Based on the paper presented at the International Conference “Autonomous Systems: inter-relations of technical and societal issues”, organized by IET with the support of the Portuguese-German collaboration project on “Technology Assessment of Autonomous Robotics” (DAAD/CRUP) at FCT-UNL, Biblioteca da UNL, Campus de Caparica on 5-6 November 2009.

Merger between Zon Multimedia and Sonaecom: Revisiting the consolidation scenario

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Scientific production on workplace bullying/harassment in dissertations and theses in the Brazilian scenario

OBJECTIVE To analyze scientific production about workplace bullying and harassment in dissertations and theses in Brazil, with emphasis on the year of publication; educational institution; area of knowledge; professional and academic background of the authors; keywords used; and concept map organization. METHOD Bibliometric study with a quantitative approach with a sample consisting of 57 papers, 5 theses and 52 dissertations, published between 2002 and 2012. RESULTS It was found that 2012 was the year with the highest number of publications in this topic area. The region that stood out was the Southeast. The institution with the highest number of publications was the Federal University of Santa Catarina. There was a predominance of dissertations and most publications were produced by researchers focused on a multidisciplinary perspective. CONCLUSION Expanding the views regarding bullying in order to disseminate scientific production was proposed, promoting further advancement of debates and raising pertinent questions.

System Design: Alternative Individual Assessment Scenario

This is the scenario used in the course when individuals are unable to participate in group work. It includes a written case study of a diary farm, and several news articles that describe various views on the business of dairy farming.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.