Finite-Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors

We propose finite sample tests and confidence sets for models with unobserved and generated regressors as well as various models estimated by instrumental variables methods. The validity of the procedures is unaffected by the presence of identification problems or \"weak instruments\", so no detection of such problems is required. We study two distinct approaches for various models considered by Pagan (1984). The first one is an instrument substitution method which generalizes an approach proposed by Anderson and Rubin (1949) and Fuller (1987) for different (although related) problems, while the second one is based on splitting the sample. The instrument substitution method uses the instruments directly, instead of generated regressors, in order to test hypotheses about the \"structural parameters\" of interest and build confidence sets. The second approach relies on \"generated regressors\", which allows a gain in degrees of freedom, and a sample split technique. For inference about general possibly nonlinear transformations of model parameters, projection techniques are proposed. A distributional theory is obtained under the assumptions of Gaussian errors and strictly exogenous regressors. We show that the various tests and confidence sets proposed are (locally) \"asymptotically valid\" under much weaker assumptions. The properties of the tests proposed are examined in simulation experiments. In general, they outperform the usual asymptotic inference methods in terms of both reliability and power. Finally, the techniques suggested are applied to a model of Tobin’s q and to a model of academic performance.

Bridging the gap:exploring the cognitive impact of InterpretBank on Chinese interpreting trainees

This exploratory research project developed a cognitive situated approach to studying aspects of simultaneous interpreting with quantitative, confirmatory methods. To do so, it explored how to determine the potential benefits of using a computer-assisted interpreting tool, InterpretBank, among 22 Chinese interpreting trainees with Chinese L1 and English L2. The informants were mostly 2nd-year female students with an average age of 24.7 enrolled in Chinese MA interpreting programs. The study adopted a pretest and posttest design with three cycles. The independent variable was using Excel or InterpretBank. After Cycle I (pre-test), the sample split into control (Excel) and experimental (InterpretBank) groups. Tool choice was compulsory in Cycle II but not Cycle III. The source materials for each cycle were pairs of matching transcripts from popular science podcasts. Informants compiled glossaries out of one transcript, while the other one was edited for simultaneous interpreting, with 39 terms as potential problem triggers. Quantitative profiling results showed that InterpretBank informants spent less time on glossary compilation, generated more terms faster than Excel informants, but their glossaries were less diverse (personal) and longer. The booth tasks yielded no significant differences in fluency indicators except for more bumps (200-600ms silent time gaps) for InterpretBank in Cycle II. InterpretBank informants had more correct renditions in Cycles II and III but there was no statistically significant difference among accuracy indicators per cycle. Holistic quality assessments by PhD raters showed InterpretBank consistently outperforming Excel, suggesting a positive InterpretBank impact on SI quality. However, some InterpretBank implementations raised cognitive ergonomic concerns for Chinese, potentially undermining its utility. Overall, results were mixed regarding InterpretBank benefits for Chinese trainees, but the project was successful in developing cognitive situated interpreting study methods, constructs and indicators.

Markovian Processes, Two-Sided Autoregressions and Finite-Sample Inference for Stationary and Nonstationary Autoregressive Processes.

In this paper, we develop finite-sample inference procedures for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive (AR) models. The method is based on special properties of Markov processes and a split-sample technique. The results on Markovian processes (intercalary independence and truncation) only require the existence of conditional densities. They are proved for possibly nonstationary and/or non-Gaussian multivariate Markov processes. In the context of a linear regression model with AR(1) errors, we show how these results can be used to simplify the distributional properties of the model by conditioning a subset of the data on the remaining observations. This transformation leads to a new model which has the form of a two-sided autoregression to which standard classical linear regression inference techniques can be applied. We show how to derive tests and confidence sets for the mean and/or autoregressive parameters of the model. We also develop a test on the order of an autoregression. We show that a combination of subsample-based inferences can improve the performance of the procedure. An application to U.S. domestic investment data illustrates the method.

Inferior Alveolar Nerve Function After Sagittal Split Osteotomy by Reciprocating Saw or Piezosurgery Instrument: Prospective Double-Blinded Study

Purpose: The aim of this prospective study was to objectively evaluate inferior alveolar nerve (IAN) sensory disturbances in patients who underwent sagittal split ramus osteotomy (SSRO) by comparing 1 side treated with a reciprocating saw with the other side treated with a piezosurgery device.Materials and Methods: Clinical evaluation of IAN sensory disturbance was undertaken preoperatively and at 1 week, 4 weeks, 2 months, and 6 months postoperatively in 20 patients who underwent SSROat the Division of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Araraquara Dental School, Sao Paulo State University. The 20 patients were examined at all periods for IAN functionality by Semmes-Weinstein testing; neither the patients nor the examiner knew which side was treated using piezosurgery or a reciprocating saw.Results: The mean age of the patients was 28.4 years (range, 20 to 48 yr). Before surgery, no patient had impaired function of the IAN in any of the 8 zones in the mental and inferior lip areas. All patients reported feeling the first monofilament at the time of the preoperative test. Seven days postoperatively, all patients reported some kind of altered sensitivity in at least 1 zone evaluated.Conclusions: The results of this study suggest there was no statistically significant difference in the sensitivity of the labiomental area regarding the instrument used to perform the osteotomy. Future studies will focus on enlarging the sample and evaluating the results. (C) 2014 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons

Limiting the influence of friction on the split Hopkinson pressure bar tests by using a ring specimen

The deformation of a ring under axial compression is analyzed in order to estimate a favorable ring specimen geometry capable of limiting the influence of friction on the stress-strain curve obtained from SHPB tests. The analysis shows that the use of a ring specimen with a large inner diameter and a small radial thickness offers some advantages comparing with the traditional disk sample. In particular, it can improve the reliability of the test results for ductile materials in the presence of friction. Based on the deformation analysis of a ductile ring under compression, a correction coefficient is proposed to relate the actual material stress strain curve with the reading from the SHPB. It is shown using finite element simulation that the proposed correction can be used for a wide range of conventional ductile materials. Experimental results with steel alloys indicate that the correction procedure is an effective technique for an accurate measurement of the dynamic material strength response. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soft tissue profile changes after bilateral sagittal split osteotomy for mandibular advancement: a systematic review

PURPOSE: The purpose of the present systematic review was to evaluate the soft tissue/hard tissue ratio in bilateral sagittal split advancement osteotomy (BSSO) with rigid internal fixation (RIF) or wire fixation (WF). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The databases PubMed, Medline, CINAHL, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar Beta were searched. From the original 711 articles identified, 12 were finally included. Only 3 studies were prospective and 9 were retrospective. The postoperative follow-up ranged from 3 months to 12.7 years for RIF and 6 months to 5 years for WF. RESULTS: The short- and long-term ratios for the lower lip to lower incisor for BSSO with RIF or WF were 50%. No difference between the short- and long-term ratios for the mentolabial-fold to point B and soft tissue pogonion to pogonion could be observed. It was a 1:1 ratio. One exception was seen for the long-term results of the soft tissue pogonion to pogonion in BSSO with RIF; they tended to be greater than a 1:1 ratio. The upper lip mainly showed retrusion but with high variability. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a large number of studies on the short- and long-term effects of mandibular advancement by BSSO, the results of the present systematic review have shown that evidence-based conclusions on soft tissue changes are still unknown. This is mostly because of the inherent problems of retrospective studies, inferior study designs, and the lack of standardized outcome measures. Well-designed prospective studies with sufficient sample sizes that have excluded patients undergoing additional surgery (ie, genioplasty or maxillary surgery) are needed.

Split-mouth designs in orthodontics: an overview with applications to orthodontic clinical trials

SUMMARY Split-mouth designs first appeared in dental clinical trials in the late sixties. The main advantage of this study design is its efficiency in terms of sample size as the patients act as their own controls. Cited disadvantages relate to carry-across effects, contamination or spilling of the effects of one intervention to another, period effects if the interventions are delivered at different time periods, difficulty in finding similar comparison sites within patients and the requirement for more complex data analysis. Although some additional thought is required when utilizing a split-mouth design, the efficiency of this design is attractive, particularly in orthodontic clinical studies where carry-across, period effects and dissimilarity between intervention sites does not pose a problem. Selection of the appropriate research design, intervention protocol and statistical method accounting for both the reduced variability and potential clustering effects within patients should be considered for the trial results to be valid.

Sample size in orthodontic randomized controlled trials: are numbers justified?

Sample size calculations are advocated by the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) group to justify sample sizes in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). This study aimed to analyse the reporting of sample size calculations in trials published as RCTs in orthodontic speciality journals. The performance of sample size calculations was assessed and calculations verified where possible. Related aspects, including number of authors; parallel, split-mouth, or other design; single- or multi-centre study; region of publication; type of data analysis (intention-to-treat or per-protocol basis); and number of participants recruited and lost to follow-up, were considered. Of 139 RCTs identified, complete sample size calculations were reported in 41 studies (29.5 per cent). Parallel designs were typically adopted (n = 113; 81 per cent), with 80 per cent (n = 111) involving two arms and 16 per cent having three arms. Data analysis was conducted on an intention-to-treat (ITT) basis in a small minority of studies (n = 18; 13 per cent). According to the calculations presented, overall, a median of 46 participants were required to demonstrate sufficient power to highlight meaningful differences (typically at a power of 80 per cent). The median number of participants recruited was 60, with a median of 4 participants being lost to follow-up. Our finding indicates good agreement between projected numbers required and those verified (median discrepancy: 5.3 per cent), although only a minority of trials (29.5 per cent) could be examined. Although sample size calculations are often reported in trials published as RCTs in orthodontic speciality journals, presentation is suboptimal and in need of significant improvement.

Marital split-up and widowhood in old age: Differential impact on psychological and social well-being

Marital split-up and spousal loss are among the most stressful critical life events. Numerous studies have documented their detrimental effects on well-being, yet the large individual differences in psychological adaptation are still not well understood. Whereas in old age bereavement is normative and can be anticipated, divorce is an “off-time” transition for this age group. In contrast to bereavement which has been amply studied, research on later life divorce is still missing despite the increasing relevance of the topic due to the significant increase of divorces in older age. Based on a modified and extended view of Amato’s divorce-stress-adjustment model (2000), the aim of this contribution is to explore the differential impact of marital split-up and widowhood in older age on psychological (life satisfaction) and social well-being (social loneliness), and the adaptation to these critical life events. Our analyses are based on data gathered in a questionnaire study, which is part of the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research LIVES. In a first step we compared three groups of individuals aged 60 to 75 years: a sample of 251 persons with a marital split-up (127 women; 123 men), a sample of 270 widowed persons (170 women; 100 men), and a group of 221 continuously married people (110 women; 111 men), which served as control group. In a second step, we investigated the role of socio-demographic variables, intrapersonal and interpersonal resources and variables of the context of loss as predictors for the psychological adaptation to a marital break-up and loss in old age. First results by ANCOVA indicate significant differences with regard to life satisfaction among the three groups, with divorced persons with the lowest scores, followed by the bereaved ones, and the married controls with the highest. Regarding social loneliness, divorced individuals report higher social loneliness than the bereaved group and the married controls (no significant difference between widowed and the married). In both loss groups, financial and intrapersonal resources, as well as the emotional valence of the loss are the most important predictors for the psychological and social adaptation. However, happiness in the past relationship is an important resource regarding the indicators for adaptation for the widowers, but not for individuals with a marital dissolution.