Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

The effect of national governance codes on firm disclosure practices : evidence from analyst earnings forecasts

This study examines whether voluntary national governance codes have a significant effect on company disclosure practices. Two direct effects of the codes are expected: 1) an overall improvement in company disclosure practices, which is greater when the codes have a greater emphasis on disclosure; and 2) a leveling out of disclosure practices across companies (i.e., larger improvements in companies that were previously poorer disclosers) due to the codes new comply-or-explain requirements. The codes are also expected to have an indirect effect on disclosure practices through their effect on company governance practices. The results show that the introduction of the codes in eight East Asian countries has been associated with lower analyst forecast error and a leveling out of disclosure practices across companies. The codes are also found to have an indirect effect on company disclosure practices through their effect on board independence. This study shows that a regulatory approach to improving disclosure practices is not always necessary. Voluntary national governance codes are found to have both a significant direct effect and a significant indirect effect on company disclosure practices. In addition, the results indicate that analysts in Asia do react to changes in disclosure practices, so there is an incentive for small companies and family-owned companies to further improve their disclosure practices.

Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Volunteer visibility : what and how Australian not-for-profit organisations report volunteer contributions

The enhanced social profile of not-for-profit organisations (NFPs) and the role of volunteers have resulted in calls for NFPs to be more accountable and to disclose information relating to such contributions. In this study we identify, locate and categorise the extent of disclosures made in relation to volunteer contributions. We find that disclosure was more prevalent on NFP websites compared to digital annual report disclosures. We find that more NFPs provided disclosure on the activities of their volunteers than other items pertaining to volunteers. The valuation of volunteer contributions was the least likely to be disclosed. The findings contribute to international debate over the inclusion of volunteer contributions in the assessment of a NFP’s accountability over its resources and ultimately the enhancement of its sustainability.

Public regulatory reform and management earnings forecasts in a low private litigation environment

We examine the impact of continuous disclosure regulatory reform on the likelihood, frequency and qualitative characteristics of management earnings forecasts issued in New Zealand’s low private litigation environment. Using a sample of 720 earnings forecasts issued by 94 firms listed on the New Zealand Exchange before and after the reform (1999–2005), we provide strong evidence of significant changes in forecasting behaviour in the post-reform period. Specifically, firms were more likely to issue earnings forecasts to pre-empt earnings announcements and, in contrast to findings in other legal settings, those earnings forecasts exhibited higher frequency and improved qualitative characteristics (better precision and accuracy). An important implication of our findings is that public regulatory reforms may have a greater benefit in a low private litigation environment and thus add to the global debate about the effectiveness of alternative public regulatory reforms of corporate requirements.

Vatkst, profit og strategisk orienteering i gazellevirksomheder (Growth, profitability and strategic orientation among gazelle firms)

Growth and profitability are often essential parts of the overall managerial goals of firms. High growth can be seen as an indicator of success and as a mean for achieving competitive advantage and higher profitability. But high growth can also lead to a number of managerial and organisational challenges, that may affect the profitability negatively. The aim of this article is to analyse the relationship between growth and profitability for Danish gazelle firms, and furthermore to investigate how the strategic orientation of the firm affects this relationship. Our study finds a clear positive relationship between growth and profitability among gazelle firms pursuing a broad market strategy. A managerial implication of this is that the growth strategy should be clearly integrated with the general strategic orientation of the firm.

Strategic issues for the Not-for-profit sector

Bringing together some of Australia’s leading and emerging researchers studying different aspects of the not-for-profit (NFP) sector, Strategic Issues in the Not-for-Profit Sector draws on original Australian and comparative research to provide a spirited exploration of strategic issues facing NFP organisations. A diverse, vital and ever-growing sector in Australia, the NFP sector provides the organisational framework through which many of the most disadvantaged in the community receive access to services and support. However, pressures such as a changing composition, an erosion of financial sustainability, the need to professionalise, and demographic trends affecting patterns of volunteering have put pressure on the NFP sector to innovate and grow in new directions. Strategic Issues in the Not-for-Profit Sector considers the local and global drivers of change, as well as the industry, policy and community imperatives impacting upon NFP sustainability, providing a unique insight into not only the strategic issues, but also strategic responses emerging within the sector.