The Pay-Off Method as a Tool for Evaluating the Risk and Profitability of Public Real Estate Investments

Real option valuation, in particular the fuzzy pay-off method, has proven to be useful in defining risk and visualizing imprecision of investments in various industry applications. This study examines whether the evaluation of risk and profitability for public real estate investments can be improved by using real option methodology. Firstly, the context of real option valuation in the real estate industry is examined. Further, an empirical case study is performed on 30 real estate investments of a Finnish government enterprise in order to determine whether the presently used investment analysis system can be complemented by the pay-off method. Despite challenges in the application of the pay-off method to the case company’s large investment base, real option valuation is found to create additional value and facilitate more robust risk analysis in public real estate applications.

An investigation on the pay-off to generic competences for core employees in Catalan manufacturing firms

The aim of this paper is to measure the returns to human capital. We use a unique data set consisting of matched employer-employee information. Data on individuals' human capital include a set of 26 competences that capture the utilization of workers' skills in a very detailed way. Thus, we can expand the concept of human capital and discuss the type of skills that are more productive in the workplace and, hence, generate a higher payoff for the workers. The rich information on firm's and workplace characteristics allows us to introduce a broad range of controls and to improve previous research in this field. This paper gives evidence that the returns to generic competences differ depending on the position of the worker in the firm. Only numeracy skills are reward independent of the occupational status of the worker. The level of technology used by the firm in the production process does not directly increase workers’ pay, but it influences the pay-off to some of the competences. JEL Classification: J24, J31

Does VAA popularity pay off ? : Smartvote users preferred candidates and their results in the 2007 Swiss federal elections

Voting is fundamental for democracy, however, this decisive democratic act requires quite an effort. Decision making at elections depends largely on the interest to gather information about candidates and parties, the effort to process the information at hand and the motivation to reach a vote choice. Especially in electoral systems with highly fragmented party systems and hundreds of candidates running for office, the process of decision making in the pre‐election sphere is highly demanding. In the age of information and communication technologies, new possibilities for gathering and processing such information are available. Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) provide guidance to voters prior to the act of voting and assist voters in choosing between different candidates and parties on the basis of issue congruence. Meanwhile widely used all over the world, scientific inquiry into the effect of such tools on electoral behavior is ongoing. This paper adds to the current debate by focusing on whether the popularity of candidates on the Swiss VAA smartvote eventually paid off at the 2007 Swiss federal elections and whether there is a direct link between the performance of a candidate on the tool and his or her electoral performance.

Measuring Consumers' Willingness to Pay. Which Method fits best?

Gauging the maximum willingness to pay (WTP) of a product accurately is a critical success factor that determines not only market performance but also financial results. A number of approaches have therefore been developed to accurately estimate consumers’ willingness to pay. Here, four commonly used measurement approaches are compared using real purchase data as a benchmark. The relative strengths of each method are analyzed on the basis of statistical criteria and, more importantly, on their potential to predict managerially relevant criteria such as optimal price, quantity and profit. The results show a slight advantage of incentive-aligned approaches though the market settings need to be considered to choose the best-fitting procedure.

Does gender-fair language pay off? The social perception of professions from a cross-linguistic perspective

In many languages, masculine forms (e.g., German Lehrer, “teachers, masc.”) have traditionally been used to refer to both women and men, although feminine forms are available, too. Feminine-masculine word pairs (e.g., German Lehrerinnen und Lehrer, “teachers, fem. and teachers, masc.”) are recommended as gender-fair alternatives. A large body of empirical research documents that the use of gender-fair forms instead of masculine forms has a substantial impact on mental representations. Masculine forms activate more male representations even when used in a generic sense, whereas word pairs (e.g., German Lehrerinnen und Lehrer, “teachers, fem. and teachers, masc.”) lead to a higher cognitive inclusion of women (i.e., visibility of women). Some recent studies, however, have also shown that in a professional context word pairs may be associated with lesser status. The present research is the first to investigate both effects within a single paradigm. A cross-linguistic (Italian and German) study with 391 participants shows that word pairs help to avoid a male bias in the gender-typing of professions and increase women's visibility; at the same time, they decrease the estimated salaries of typically feminine professions (but do not affect perceived social status or competence). This potential payoff has implications for language policies aiming at gender-fairness.

Does education pay off?

Mode of access: Internet.

Eastern Europe : reforms about to pay off /

"August 1993."

A quantitative view on fuzzy numbers

Since its introduction, fuzzy set theory has become a useful tool in the mathematical modelling of problems in Operations Research and many other fields. The number of applications is growing continuously. In this thesis we investigate a special type of fuzzy set, namely fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy numbers (which will be considered in the thesis as possibility distributions) have been widely used in quantitative analysis in recent decades. In this work two measures of interactivity are defined for fuzzy numbers, the possibilistic correlation and correlation ratio. We focus on both the theoretical and practical applications of these new indices. The approach is based on the level-sets of the fuzzy numbers and on the concept of the joint distribution of marginal possibility distributions. The measures possess similar properties to the corresponding probabilistic correlation and correlation ratio. The connections to real life decision making problems are emphasized focusing on the financial applications. We extend the definitions of possibilistic mean value, variance, covariance and correlation to quasi fuzzy numbers and prove necessary and sufficient conditions for the finiteness of possibilistic mean value and variance. The connection between the concepts of probabilistic and possibilistic correlation is investigated using an exponential distribution. The use of fuzzy numbers in practical applications is demonstrated by the Fuzzy Pay-Off method. This model for real option valuation is based on findings from earlier real option valuation models. We illustrate the use of number of different types of fuzzy numbers and mean value concepts with the method and provide a real life application.

ERP Systems as Investments: Analysing Costs vs. Benefits

An ERP system investment analysis method using a Fuzzy Pay-Off approach for Real Option valuation is examined. It is studied, how the investment can be incrementally adopted and analyzed as a compounding Real Option model. The modeling allows follow-up. IS system development model COCOMO is presented as an example for investment analysis. The thesis presents the usage of Real Options as an alternative for the valuation of an investment. An idea is presented to use a continuous investment follow-up during the investment. This analysis can be performed using Real Options. As a tool for the analysis, the Fuzzy Pay-Off method is presented as an alternative for investment valuation.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Lean-projektin kannattavuuden ennalta-arviointi soveltamalla tuottojakauma-menetelmää

Tämän Pro Gradu-tutkielman tavoitteena on muodostaa työkalu Lean-projektin kannattavuuden ennalta-arvioinnin toteuttamiseen soveltamalla tuottojakauma-menetelmää. Lisäksi tutkimus pyrkii selvittämään, minkälaista siihen liittyvää akateemista tutkimusta on aikaisemmin toteutettu sekä mitä haasteita tämänkaltaisen arvion toteuttamiselle on. Tutkimuksen syntymistä on motivoinut Lean-pro-jektien kannattavuuden ennalta-arvioimisen akateemisesta tutkimuksesta tunnistettu tutkimusaukko. Empiirinen tutkimus on toteutettu kvalitatiivisena tapaustutkimuksena, yhteistyössä Lean-projekteihin erikoistuneen konsultointiyrityksen kanssa. Empiiristä tutkimusta on ohjannut sille valittu metodologia, jonka tavoitteena on ollut systemaattisesti muodostaa tutkimuksen tavoitteen mukainen työkalu. Aineistonkeruumenetelmänä on toiminut teemahaastattelu, joka on toteutettu kaksiosaisena. Niiden pohjalta saadut aineistot on analysoitu Grounded theory-menetelmää käyttäen. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että muodostetulla tuottojakauma-menetelmää soveltavalla työkalulla on mahdollista toteuttaa Lean-pro¬jektin kannattavuuden ennalta-arviointi. Tulosten perusteella, sen avulla pystytään myös vastaamaan tutkimuksessa tunnistettuihin haasteisiin, jotka ovat aikaisemmin rajoittaneet tämän arvion toteuttamista. Työkalulla on mahdollista, tutkimuksen perusteella, myös tukea sen yhteistyöyrityksen Lean-projektien myyntiä.

If you want me to stay, pay

Devolution of political power is constantly on the political agenda in both Italy and Spain. Fiscal policy in these countries has granted specific privileges to some regions. Valle d’Aosta/Vallée d’Aoste,(VdA) and País Vasco-Euskadi (PV) have an extensive say over spending decisions, and receive nearly all regional tax revenues. Although both VdA and PV are among the richest regions in each country, both are net beneficiaries of the fiscal equalisation system. This preferential treatment is the outcome of a fiscal system with limits on taxing power and debt issuance, and is meant as a compensation for the lack of autonomy. It so prevents calls for more fiscal autonomy, or even outright secession. The economic effects of this asymmetric federalism are negative Although partial equalisation reduces excessive redistribution built in the fiscal equalisation system, more autonomy could pay off with more efficient government. Asymmetric federalism moreover creates a political impasse in the negotiation of a more efficient tax system and financing arrangement.