Biokaasun tuotannon ja lietelannan jakeistamisen taloudelliset vaikutukset nautatilalle

Työn tavoitteena on tutkia nautatilojen lannan käsittelytapojen taloudellista kannattavuutta. Tutkimuksessa verrataan lietelannan vaihtoehtoisia käsittelytapoja, joita ovat (a) lietteen levittäminen peltoon ilman esikäsittelyä, (b) lietelannan jakeistaminen typpipitoiseen nestejakeeseen ja fosforipitoiseen kuivajakeeseen sekä (c) lannan hyödyntäminen biokaasun tuotannossa. Aineistona tutkimuksessa käytetään aiempia tutkimustuloksia sekä Vieremällä sijaitsevien nautatilojen (21 kpl) tietoja. Menetelmänä käytetään lineaarista ohjelmointia ja malli ratkaistaan GAMS -ohjelmaa käyttämällä. Teoriana tutkimuksessa on tuotanto- ja kustannusteoria. Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan kuinka eläintiheys, peltolohkorakenne sekä kustannusten muutokset vaikuttavat lannankäsittelyyn. Tutkimuksessa havaitaan, että kun kaikkea lietettä ei voida levittää tilan hallinnassa oleville pelloille, on lietteen jakeistaminen kannattavaa, jos jakeistuskustannus ei ylitä 1,2 €/m3. Sijoituslevityksen havaitaan olevan hajalevitystä kannattavampaa, paitsi typen hinnan ollessa hyvin alhainen hajalevitys on kannattavampi vaihtoehto. Korkea typpikustannus ja lietteen jakeistuskustannus tekevät biokaasun tuotannosta kannattavan vaihtoehdon, jos biokaasulaitos sijaitsee hyvin lähellä tilaa. Lietteen jakeistaminen on kannattavaa alueilla, joilla lannanlevityspinta-alasta on niukkuutta. Jakeistettavaa lietettä on kuitenkin oltava vähintään 20 000 m3/a, jotta jakeistuslaitteen hankkiminen on kannattavaa. Biokaasun tuotannon ei katsota olevan tällä hetkellä kannattava lannan käsittelyvaihtoehto, koska laitoksen olisi saatava tarvittava raaka-ainemäärä kaikissa tapauksissa alle kahden kilometrin säteeltä, eikä tämän katsota onnistuvan. Vieremän tiloista ainoastaan yksi tila sijaitsee riittävän lähellä suunniteltua laitoksen sijaintipaikkaa.

Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry in Studies of Drug Metabolism and Permeability

Poor pharmacokinetics is one of the reasons for the withdrawal of drug candidates from clinical trials. There is an urgent need for investigating in vitro ADME (absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion) properties and recognising unsuitable drug candidates as early as possible in the drug development process. Current throughput of in vitro ADME profiling is insufficient because effective new synthesis techniques, such as drug design in silico and combinatorial synthesis, have vastly increased the number of drug candidates. Assay technologies for larger sets of compounds than are currently feasible are critically needed. The first part of this work focused on the evaluation of cocktail strategy in studies of drug permeability and metabolic stability. N-in-one liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) methods were developed and validated for the multiple component analysis of samples in cocktail experiments. Together, cocktail dosing and LC/MS/MS were found to form an effective tool for increasing throughput. First, cocktail dosing, i.e. the use of a mixture of many test compounds, was applied in permeability experiments with Caco-2 cell culture, which is a widely used in vitro model for small intestinal absorption. A cocktail of 7-10 reference compounds was successfully evaluated for standardization and routine testing of the performance of Caco-2 cell cultures. Secondly, cocktail strategy was used in metabolic stability studies of drugs with UGT isoenzymes, which are one of the most important phase II drug metabolizing enzymes. The study confirmed that the determination of intrinsic clearance (Clint) as a cocktail of seven substrates is possible. The LC/MS/MS methods that were developed were fast and reliable for the quantitative analysis of a heterogenous set of drugs from Caco-2 permeability experiments and the set of glucuronides from in vitro stability experiments. The performance of a new ionization technique, atmospheric pressure photoionization (APPI), was evaluated through comparison with electrospray ionization (ESI), where both techniques were used for the analysis of Caco-2 samples. Like ESI, also APPI proved to be a reliable technique for the analysis of Caco-2 samples and even more flexible than ESI because of the wider dynamic linear range. The second part of the experimental study focused on metabolite profiling. Different mass spectrometric instruments and commercially available software tools were investigated for profiling metabolites in urine and hepatocyte samples. All the instruments tested (triple quadrupole, quadrupole time-of-flight, ion trap) exhibited some good and some bad features in searching for and identifying of expected and non-expected metabolites. Although, current profiling software is helpful, it is still insufficient. Thus a time-consuming largely manual approach is still required for metabolite profiling from complex biological matrices.

Speech Rhythm in an Interlanguage Perspective : Finnish Adolescents Speaking English

Speech rhythm is an essential part of speech processing. It is the outcome of the workings of a combination of linguistic and non-linguistic parameters, many of which also have other functions in speech. This study focusses on the acoustic and auditive realization of two linguistic parameters of rhythm: (1) sentence stress, and (2) speech rate and pausing. The aim was to find out how well Finnish comprehensive school pupils realize these two parameters in English and how native speakers of English react to Finnish pupils English rhythm. The material was elicited by means of a story-telling task and questionnaires. Three female and three male pupils representing different levels of oral skills in English were selected as the experimental group. The control group consisted of two female and two male native speakers of English. The stories were analysed acoustically and auditorily with respect to interstress intervals, weak forms, fundamental frequency, pausing, and speech as well as articulation rate. In addition, 52 native speakers of English were asked to rate the intelligibility of the Finnish pupils English with respect to speech rhythm and give their attitudes on what the pupils sounded like. Results showed that Finnish pupils can produce isochronous interstress intervals in English, but that too large a proportion of these intervals contain pauses. A closer analysis of the pauses revealed that Finnish pupils pause too frequently and in inappropriate places when they speak English. Frequent pausing was also found to cause slow speech rates. The findings of the fundamental frequency (F0) measurements indicate that Finnish pupils tend to make a slightly narrower F0 difference between stressed and unstressed syllables than the native speakers of English. Furthermore, Finnish pupils appear to know how to reduce the duration and quality of unstressed sounds, but they fail to do it frequently enough. Native listeners gave lower intelligibility and attitude scores to pupils with more anomalous speech rhythm. Finnish pupils rhythm anomalies seemed to derive from various learning- or learner-related factors rather than from the differences between English and Finnish. This study demonstrates that pausing may be a more important component of English speech rhythm than sentence stress as far as Finnish adolescents are concerned and that interlanguage development is affected by various factors and characterised by jumps or periods of stasis. Other theoretical, methodological and pedagogical implications of the results are also discussed.

Concepts and Object-Oriented Knowledge Representation

Tutkielma käsittelee nykyisiä kognitiotieteen teorioita käsitteistä ja niiden mallintamista oliokeskeisillä tietämyksen esittämisen menetelmillä. Käsiteteorioista käsitellään klassinen, määritelmäteoria, prototyyppiteoria, duaaliteoriat, uusklassinen teoria, teoria-teoria ja atomistinen teoria. Oliokeskeiset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina jakautuneet kahden tyyppisiin kieliin: oliopohjaisiin ja luokkapohjaisiin. Uudet olio-pohjaiset olio-ohjelmointikielet antavat käsitteiden representointiin mahdollisuuksia, jotka puuttuvat aikaisemmista luokka-pohjaisista kielistä ja myös kehysmenetelmistä. Tutkielma osoittaa, että oliopohjaisten kielten uudet piirteet tarjoavat keinoja, joilla käsitteitä voidaan esittää symbolisessa muodossa paremmin kuin perinteisillä menetelmillä. Niillä pystytään simuloimaan kaikkea mitä luokkapohjaisilla kielillä voidaan, mutta ne pystyvät lisäksi simuloimaan perheyhtäläisyyskäsitteitä ja mahdollistavat olioiden dynaamisen muuttamisen ilman, että siinä rikotaan psykologisen essentialismin periaatetta. Tutkielma osoittaa lisäksi vakavia puutteitta, jotka koskevat koko oliokeskeistä menetelmää. Avainsanat: käsitteet, käsiteteoriat, tekoäly, komputationaalinen psykologia, olio-ohjelmointi, tiedon esittäminen

F-18 Labelling Synthesis, Radioanalysis and Evaluation of A Dopamine Transporter and A Hypoxia Tracer

Positron emission tomography (PET) is an imaging technique in which radioactive positron-emitting tracers are used to study biochemical and physiological functions in humans and in animal experiments. The use of PET imaging has increased rapidly in recent years, as have special requirements in the fields of neurology and oncology for the development of syntheses for new, more specific and selective radiotracers. Synthesis development and automation are necessary when high amounts of radioactivity are needed for multiple PET studies. In addition, preclinical studies using experimental animal models are necessary for evaluating the suitability of new PET tracers for humans. For purification and analysing the labelled end-product, an effective radioanalytical method combined with an optimal radioactivity detection technique is of great importance. In this study, a fluorine-18 labelling synthesis method for two tracers was developed and optimized, and the usefulness of these tracers for possible prospective human studies was evaluated. N-(3-[18F]fluoropropyl)-2β-carbomethoxy-3β-(4-fluorophenyl)nortropane ([18F]β-CFT-FP) is a candidate PET tracer for the dopamine transporter (DAT), and 1H-1-(3-[18F]fluoro-2-hydroxypropyl)-2-nitroimidazole ([18F]FMISO) is a well-known hypoxia marker for hypoxic but viable cells in tumours. The methodological aim of this thesis was to evaluate the status of thin-layer chromatography (TLC) combined with proper radioactivity detection measurement systems as a radioanalytical method. Three different detection methods of radioactivity were compared: radioactivity scanning, film autoradiography, and digital photostimulated luminescence (PSL) autoradiography. The fluorine-18 labelling synthesis for [18F]β-CFT-FP was developed and carbon-11 labelled [11C]β-CFT-FP was used to study the specificity of β-CFT-FP for the DAT sites in human post-mortem brain slices. These in vitro studies showed that β-CFT-FP binds to the caudate-putamen, an area rich of DAT. The synthesis of fluorine-18 labelled [18F]FMISO was optimized, and the tracer was prepared using an automated system with good and reproducible yields. In preclinical studies, the action of the radiation sensitizer estramustine phosphate on the radiation treatment and uptake of [18F]FMISO was evaluated, with results of great importance for later human studies. The methodological part of this thesis showed that radioTLC is the method of choice when combined with an appropriate radioactivity detection technique. Digital PSL autoradiography proved to be the most appropriate when compared to the radioactivity scanning and film autoradiography methods. The very high sensitivity, good resolution, and wide dynamic range of digital PSL autoradiography are its advantages in detection of β-emitting radiolabelled substances.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

Composition operators on vector-valued BMOA and related function spaces

A composition operator is a linear operator between spaces of analytic or harmonic functions on the unit disk, which precomposes a function with a fixed self-map of the disk. A fundamental problem is to relate properties of a composition operator to the function-theoretic properties of the self-map. During the recent decades these operators have been very actively studied in connection with various function spaces. The study of composition operators lies in the intersection of two central fields of mathematical analysis; function theory and operator theory. This thesis consists of four research articles and an overview. In the first three articles the weak compactness of composition operators is studied on certain vector-valued function spaces. A vector-valued function takes its values in some complex Banach space. In the first and third article sufficient conditions are given for a composition operator to be weakly compact on different versions of vector-valued BMOA spaces. In the second article characterizations are given for the weak compactness of a composition operator on harmonic Hardy spaces and spaces of Cauchy transforms, provided the functions take values in a reflexive Banach space. Composition operators are also considered on certain weak versions of the above function spaces. In addition, the relationship of different vector-valued function spaces is analyzed. In the fourth article weighted composition operators are studied on the scalar-valued BMOA space and its subspace VMOA. A weighted composition operator is obtained by first applying a composition operator and then a pointwise multiplier. A complete characterization is given for the boundedness and compactness of a weighted composition operator on BMOA and VMOA. Moreover, the essential norm of a weighted composition operator on VMOA is estimated. These results generalize many previously known results about composition operators and pointwise multipliers on these spaces.

Convex-transitive Banach spaces and their hyperplanes

The topic of this dissertation is the geometric and isometric theory of Banach spaces. This work is motivated by the known Banach-Mazur rotation problem, which asks whether each transitive separable Banach space is isometrically a Hilbert space. A Banach space X is said to be transitive if the isometry group of X acts transitively on the unit sphere of X. In fact, some weaker symmetry conditions than transitivity are studied in the dissertation. One such condition is an almost isometric version of transitivity. Another investigated condition is convex-transitivity, which requires that the closed convex hull of the orbit of any point of the unit sphere under the rotation group is the whole unit ball. Following the tradition developed around the rotation problem, some contemporary problems are studied. Namely, we attempt to characterize Hilbert spaces by using convex-transitivity together with the existence of a 1-dimensional bicontractive projection on the space, and some mild geometric assumptions. The convex-transitivity of some vector-valued function spaces is studied as well. The thesis also touches convex-transitivity of Banach lattices and resembling geometric cases.

Direct and Inverse Scattering for Beltrami Fields

We consider an obstacle scattering problem for linear Beltrami fields. A vector field is a linear Beltrami field if the curl of the field is a constant times itself. We study the obstacles that are of Neumann type, that is, the normal component of the total field vanishes on the boundary of the obstacle. We prove the unique solvability for the corresponding exterior boundary value problem, in other words, the direct obstacle scattering model. For the inverse obstacle scattering problem, we deduce the formulas that are needed to apply the singular sources method. The numerical examples are computed for the direct scattering problem and for the inverse scattering problem.

Näkövammaisten tietokoneavusteinen tiedon hankinta

The study examines various uses of computer technology in acquisition of information for visually impaired people. For this study 29 visually impaired persons took part in a survey about their experiences concerning acquisition of infomation and use of computers, especially with a screen magnification program, a speech synthesizer and a braille display. According to the responses, the evolution of computer technology offers an important possibility for visually impaired people to cope with everyday activities and interacting with the environment. Nevertheless, the functionality of assistive technology needs further development to become more usable and versatile. Since the challenges of independent observation of environment were emphasized in the survey, the study led into developing a portable text vision system called Tekstinäkö. Contrary to typical stand-alone applications, Tekstinäkö system was constructed by combining devices and programs that are readily available on consumer market. As the system operates, pictures are taken by a digital camera and instantly transmitted to a text recognition program in a laptop computer that talks out loud the text using a speech synthesizer. Visually impaired test users described that even unsure interpretations of the texts in the environment given by Tekstinäkö system are at least a welcome addition to complete perception of the environment. It became clear that even with a modest development work it is possible to bring new, useful and valuable methods to everyday life of disabled people. Unconventional production process of the system appeared to be efficient as well. Achieved results and the proposed working model offer one suggestion for giving enough attention to easily overlooked needs of the people with special abilities. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): K.4.2 Social Issues: Assistive technologies for persons with disabilities I.4.9 Image processing and computer vision: Applications Keywords: Visually impaired, computer-assisted, information, acquisition, assistive technology, computer, screen magnification program, speech synthesizer, braille display, survey, testing, text recognition, camera, text, perception, picture, environment, trasportation, guidance, independence, vision, disabled, blind, speech, synthesizer, braille, software engineering, programming, program, system, freeware, shareware, open source, Tekstinäkö, text vision, TopOCR, Autohotkey, computer engineering, computer science

Fluorescence properties of Baltic Sea phytoplankton

To obtain data on phytoplankton dynamics with improved spatial and temporal resolution, and at reduced cost, traditional phytoplankton monitoring methods have been supplemented with optical approaches. In this thesis, I have explored various fluorescence-based techniques for detection of phytoplankton abundance, taxonomy and physiology in the Baltic Sea. In algal cultures used in this thesis, the availability of nitrogen and light conditions caused changes in pigmentation, and consequently in light absorption and fluorescence properties of cells. In the Baltic Sea, physical environmental factors (e.g. mixing depth, irradiance and temperature) and related seasonal succession in the phytoplankton community explained a large part of the seasonal variability in the magnitude and shape of Chlorophyll a (Chla)-specific absorption. The variability in Chla-specific fluorescence was related to the abundance of cyanobacteria, the size structure of the phytoplankton community, and absorption characteristics of phytoplankton. Cyanobacteria show very low Chla-specific fluorescence. In the presence of eukaryotic species, Chla fluorescence describes poorly cyanobacteria. During cyanobacterial bloom in the Baltic Sea, phycocyanin fluorescence explained large part of the variability in Chla concentrations. Thus, both Chla and phycocyanin fluorescence were required to predict Chla concentration. Phycobilins are major light harvesting pigments for cyanobacteria. In the open Baltic Sea, small picoplanktonic cyanobacteria were the main source of phycoerythrin fluorescence and absorption signal. Large filamentous cyanobacteria, forming harmful blooms, were the main source of the phycocyanin fluorescence signal and typically their biomass and phycocyanin fluorescence were linearly related. Using phycocyanin fluorescence, dynamics of cyanobacterial blooms can be detected at high spatial and seasonal resolution not possible with other methods. Various taxonomic phytoplankton pigment groups can be separated by spectral fluorescence. I compared multivariate calibration methods for the retrieval of phytoplankton biomass in different taxonomic groups. Partial least squares regression method gave the closest predictions for all taxonomic groups, and the accuracy was adequate for phytoplankton bloom detection. Variable fluorescence has been proposed as a tool to study the physiological state of phytoplankton. My results from the Baltic Sea emphasize that variable fluorescence alone cannot be used to detect nutrient limitation of phytoplankton. However, when combined with experiments with active nutrient manipulation, and other nutrient limitation indices, variable fluorescence provided valuable information on the physiological responses of the phytoplankton community. This thesis found a severe limitation of a commercial fast repetition rate fluorometer, which couldn t detect the variable fluorescence of phycoerythrin-lacking cyanobacteria. For these species, the Photosystem II absorption of blue light is very low, and fluorometer excitation light did not saturate Photosystem II during a measurement. This thesis encourages the use of various in vivo fluorescence methods for the detection of bulk phytoplankton biomass, biomass of cyanobacteria, chemotaxonomy of phytoplankton community, and phytoplankton physiology. Fluorescence methods can support traditional phytoplankton monitoring by providing continuous measurements of phytoplankton, and thereby strengthen the understanding of the links between biological, chemical and physical processes in aquatic ecosystems.

Quantifying Time Awake Posturographically

This thesis focuses on the issue of testing sleepiness quantitatively. The issue is relevant to policymakers concerned with traffic- and occupational safety; such testing provides a tool for safety legislation and -surveillance. The findings of this thesis provide guidelines for a posturographic sleepiness tester. Sleepiness ensuing from staying awake merely 17 h impairs our performance as much as the legally proscribed blood alcohol concentration 0.5 does. Hence, sleepiness is a major risk factor in transportation and occupational accidents. The lack of convenient, commercial sleepiness tests precludes testing impending sleepiness levels contrary to simply breath testing for alcohol intoxication. Posturography is a potential sleepiness test, since clinical diurnal balance testing suggests the hypothesis that time awake could be posturographically estimable. Relying on this hypothesis this thesis examines posturographic sleepiness testing for instrumentation purposes. Empirical results from 63 subjects for whom we tested balance with a force platform during wakefulness for maximum 36 h show that sustained wakefulness impairs balance. The results show that time awake is posturographically estimable with 88% accuracy and 97% precision which validates our hypothesis. Results also show that balance scores tested at 13:30 hours serve as a threshold to detect excessive sleepiness. Analytical results show that the test length has a marked effect on estimation accuracy: 18 s tests suffice to identify sleepiness related balance changes, but trades off some of the accuracy achieved with 30 s tests. The procedure to estimate time awake relies on equating the subject s test score to a reference table (comprising balance scores tested during sustained wakefulness, regressed against time awake). Empirical results showed that sustained wakefulness explains 60% of the diurnal balance variations, whereas the time of day explains 40% of the balance variations. The latter fact implies that time awake estimations also must rely on knowing the local times of both test and reference scores.

Direct and Inverse Scattering for Beltrami Fields

We consider an obstacle scattering problem for linear Beltrami fields. A vector field is a linear Beltrami field if the curl of the field is a constant times itself. We study the obstacles that are of Neumann type, that is, the normal component of the total field vanishes on the boundary of the obstacle. We prove the unique solvability for the corresponding exterior boundary value problem, in other words, the direct obstacle scattering model. For the inverse obstacle scattering problem, we deduce the formulas that are needed to apply the singular sources method. The numerical examples are computed for the direct scattering problem and for the inverse scattering problem.

Data fusion and matching by maximizing statistical dependencies

The core aim of machine learning is to make a computer program learn from the experience. Learning from data is usually defined as a task of learning regularities or patterns in data in order to extract useful information, or to learn the underlying concept. An important sub-field of machine learning is called multi-view learning where the task is to learn from multiple data sets or views describing the same underlying concept. A typical example of such scenario would be to study a biological concept using several biological measurements like gene expression, protein expression and metabolic profiles, or to classify web pages based on their content and the contents of their hyperlinks. In this thesis, novel problem formulations and methods for multi-view learning are presented. The contributions include a linear data fusion approach during exploratory data analysis, a new measure to evaluate different kinds of representations for textual data, and an extension of multi-view learning for novel scenarios where the correspondence of samples in the different views or data sets is not known in advance. In order to infer the one-to-one correspondence of samples between two views, a novel concept of multi-view matching is proposed. The matching algorithm is completely data-driven and is demonstrated in several applications such as matching of metabolites between humans and mice, and matching of sentences between documents in two languages.

Maissin tuotantoon ja markkinoihin vaikuttavat tekijät Yhdysvalloissa 2000-luvulla

Tutkimus käsittelee maissin tuotantoon ja markkinoihin vaikuttavia tekijöitä Yhdysvalloissa 2000-luvulla. Yhdysvallat on maailman merkittävin maissin tuottaja. Aikaisemmin maissia on tuotettu suoraan tai välillisesti eläinten rehuna ihmisten ruuantuotannon tarpeisiin. 2000-luvulla maissin käyttö liikenteen polttoaineena käytettävän etanolin raaka-aineena on merkittävästi lisääntynyt. Samaan aikaan maissin hinta on noussut ennätyskorkeaksi. Tässä tutkimuksessa maissimarkkinoihin vaikuttavia tekijöitä tutkittiin ajankohtaisen viranomaistiedon, aiheeseen liittyvän aikaisemman tutkimuksen ja empiirisen ekonometrisen estimoinnin perusteella. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen viitekehys perustuu kysyntä- ja tarjontateoriaan. Lisäksi tässä tutkimuksessa on kerrottu Yhdysvaltojen maatalouspolitiikan lähihistoriasta ja tarkemmin tällä hetkellä rehuviljan tuotantoon vaikuttavasta maatalouspolitiikasta. Tutkimuksessa estimoitiin maissin tuottajien viljelypäätöksiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä käyttäen pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää. Viljelypäätöstä kuvaavaksi selitettäväksi muuttujaksi valittiin maissin viljelypinta-ala. Aineiston saatavuus rajasi tutkimuksen vuosiin 1987 – 2010. Viljelypinta-alaa selittäviä muuttujia valittiin 12. Muuttujien valinta perustui maissin tuotantoon liittyviin tekijöihin, joita on käytetty muissa alan tutkimuksissa ja joiden käyttöä voidaan perustella talousteorialla. Vähitellen kokeilemalla mallista karsittiin turhat muuttujat pois ja viljelypinta-alaa selittämään jäi maissin ja soijan viivästetty hintasuhde, viivästetty typpilannoitteen hinta, maissifutuurien ostomäärät sekä viivästetty etanolin tuotanto ja maissin muu teollinen käyttö. Paras ja luotettavin lineaarisella mallilla saatu tulos sai selitysasteeksi 0,85. Tässä mallissa molemmat kysyntää kuvaavat muuttujat olivat alle 1 % virhetasolla tilastollisesti merkitseviä. Alle 10 % virhetasolla tilastollisesti merkitseviä olivat myös maissin ja soijan hintasuhde samoin kuin futuuriostot. Samoilla muuttujilla testattu log-lineaarinen malli antoi tutkimuksen korkeimman selitysasteen 0,87. Selittävistä muuttujista etanolin tuotanto oli edelleen alle 1 % virhetasolla tilastollisesti merkitsevä. Sen sijaan maissin muun teollisen käytön merkitsevyys heikkeni, ollen kuitenkin alle 10 % virhetasolla tilastollisesti merkitsevä. Lannoitteen hinnan p-arvo laski, joten lannoitteen hinta oli nyt alle 5 % virhetasolla tilastollisesti merkitsevä samoin kuin futuuriostot. Log-lineaarinen malli paransi myös maissin ja soijan hintasuhteen merkitsevyyttä. Tutkimustulokset ovat loogisia ja vastaavat teoriaa ja muita tutkimuksia siltä osin, että maissin korkeampi hinta, maissin lisääntynyt kysyntä ja futuuriostot lisäävät maissin viljelypinta-alaa. Tulosten perusteella voi todeta maissin tuotantokustannusten nousun ja soijan hinnan nousun laskevan maissin viljelypinta-alaa. Tutkimuksen tuloksena saadut joustokertoimet ovat pieniä, mikä kertoo maissin viljelypinta-alan vaihtelujen olevan melko joustamattomia markkinoilla tapahtuviin muutoksiin nähden. Tästä voisi päätellä viljelijöiden tuotantopäätösten olevan melko riippumattomia markkinoiden muutoksista. Tämä voi selittyä maatalouspolitiikan luomalla vahvalla turvaverkolla, rajoitteilla ja kannustimilla.