Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

RELATIONS AMONG REMEMBERED PARENTAL ACCEPTANCE AND BEHAVIORAL CONTROL IN CHILDHOOD, ADULTS' CURRENT PSYCHOLOGICAL ADJUSTMENT, AND CAREER INDECISIVENESS

This study tested the hypothesis that career indecisiveness among men tends to be associated with different levels of self-reported psychological adjustment and with different remembrances of parental (maternal and paternal) acceptance and behavioral control in childhood from those of women. One hundred twenty-six respondents ages 17 through 54 (M = 23.7 years, SD = 8.21 years) participated in this study. Thirty-seven where males; 90 were females. Measures used in this study included the Career Decision Scale, the Adult version of the Parental Acceptance-Rejection/Control Questionnaire for mothers and for fathers, and the Adult version of the Personality Assessment Questionnaire. Both men and women remembered their mothers as well as their fathers as being loving in childhood. Additionally, men and women remembered both parents as being moderately behaviorally controlling in childhood. Finally, both men and women reported a fair level of psychological maladjustment. And on average, both men and women were fairly indecisive about their careers. Results of analyses supported the hypothesis in that career indecisiveness among women but not men was significantly correlated with remembered maternal and paternal acceptance in childhood, as well as with self-reported psychological adjustment and age. However, only women’s self-reported psychological adjustment made a significant and unique contribution to variations in their reports of career indecisiveness. None of the predictor variables were significantly associated with career indecisiveness among men.

Strike Hard, Strike Sure - Operation Musketeer : British Military Planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

This study analyses British military planning and actions during the Suez Crisis in 1956. It seeks to find military reasons for the change of concepts during the planning and compares these reasons with the tactical doctrines of the time. The thesis takes extensive advantage of military documents preserved in the National Archives, London. In order to expand the understanding of the exchange of views during the planning process, the private papers of high ranking military officials have also been consulted. French military documents preserved in the Service Historique de la Defence, Paris, have provided an important point of comparison. The Suez Crisis caught the British armed forces in the middle of a transition phase. The main objective of the armed forces was to establish a credible deterrence against the Soviet Union. However, due to overseas commitments the Middle East playing a paramount role because of its economic importance the armed forces were compelled to also prepare for Limited War and the Cold War. The armed forces were not fully prepared to meet this demand. The Middle Eastern garrison was being re-organised after the withdrawal from the Canal Base and the concept for a strategic reserve was unimplemented. The tactical doctrines of the time were based on experiences from the Second World War. As a result, the British view of amphibious operations and the subsequent campaigns emphasised careful planning, mastery of the sea and the air, sufficient superiority in numbers and firepower, centralised command and extensive administrative preparations. The British military had realized that Nasser could nationalise the Suez Canal and prepared an outline plan to meet this contingency. Although the plan was nothing more than a concept, it was accepted as a basis for further planning when the Canal was nationalised at the end of July. This plan was short-lived. The nominated Task Force Commanders shifted the landing site from Port Said to Alexandria because it enabled faster expansion of the bridgehead. In addition, further operations towards Cairo the hub of Nasser s power would be easier to conduct. The operational concept can be described as being traditional and was in accordance with the amphibious warfare doctrine. This plan was completely changed at the beginning of September. Apparently, General Charles Keightley, the Commander-in-Chief, and the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee developed the idea of prolonged aerial operations. The essence of the concept was to break the Egyptian will to resist by attacking the oil facilities, the transportation system and the armed forces. This victory through air concept would be supported by carefully planned psychological operations. This concept was in accordance with the Royal Air Force doctrine, which promoted a bomber offensive against selected target categories. General Keightley s plan was accepted despite suspicions at every planning level. The Joint Planning Staff and the Task Force Commanders opposed the concept from the beginning to the end because of its unpredictability. There was no information that suggested the bombing would persuade the Egyptians to submit. This problem was worsened by the fact that British intelligence was unable to provide reliable strategic information. The Task Force Commanders, who were responsible for the tactical plans, were not able to change Keightley s mind, but the concept was expanded to include a traditional amphibious assault on Port Said due to their resistance. The bombing campaign was never tested as the Royal Air Force was denied authorisation to destroy the transportation and oil targets. The Chiefs of Staff and General Keightley were too slow to realise that the execution of the plan depended on the determination of the Prime Minister. However, poor health, a lack of American and domestic support and the indecisiveness of the military had ruined Eden s resolve. In the end, a very traditional amphibious assault, which was bound to succeed at the tactical level but fail at the strategic level, was launched against Port Said.

D'un régime de l'image à l'autre. Réflexions à partir de la notion d'indécidable chez Jacques Rancière

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

Risk, ambiguity, and diversification

Attitudes toward risk influence the decision to diversify among uncertain options. Yet, because in most situations the options are ambiguous, attitudes toward ambiguity may also play an important role. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect of ambiguity on the decision to diversify. I find that diversification is more prevalent and more persistent under ambiguity than under risk. Moreover, excess diversification under ambiguity is driven by participants who stick with a status quo gamble when diversification among gambles is not feasible. This behavioral pattern cannot be accommodated by major theories of choice under ambiguity.

Personalidade e procrastinação em estudantes universitários

A pertinência da investigação acerca da temática da procrastinação é grande, visto que por exemplo Portugal possui uma das médias de notas escolares mais baixas da União Europeia. O objectivo principal desta investigação foi o de compreender de que modo a procrastinação, ou a tendência a procrastinar, por parte de estudantes universitários, pode ser estudada com base em factores como a personalidade e a tomada de decisões. Foi estudada uma amostra de 148 estudantes do curso de Psicologia da Universidade Lusófona, 121 do sexo feminino e 27 do sexo masculino, com idades compreendidas entre 18 e 55 anos sendo a média de idades igual a 27,61 (DP = 9,2). Para esta investigação utilizamos como medidas de avaliação o Big Five Inventory, BFI (Benet-Martínez & John, 2001), a Procrastination Scale (Tuckman, 1991), Indecisiveness Scale (Frost & Show 1993) e a Desirability Scale (versão curta) (Crowne & Marlowe, 1960). Concluiu-se que pontuações elevadas de neuroticismo não se correlacionam com valores elevados de procrastinação. Não foi possível também verificar uma correlação entre a indecisão e procrastinação. Verificou-se uma forte relação entre o neuroticismo e a indecisão. Foi possível verificar que os traços de personalidade, conscienciosidade, amabilidade e extroversão servem de bons predictores da procrastinação. Observou-se que o neuroticismo, a conscienciosidade, a abertura à experiência e a extroversão funcionam como preditores da indecisão.

Delay discounting task in pigs reveals response strategies related to dopamine metabolite.

We developed a novel delay discounting task to investigate outcome impulsivity in pigs. As impulsivity can affect aggression, and might also relate to proactive and reactive coping styles, eight proactive (HR) and eight reactive (LR) pigs identified in a manual restraint test ("Backtest", after Bolhuis et al., 2003) were weaned and mixed in four pens of four unfamiliar pigs, so that each pen had two HR and two LR pigs, and aggression was scored in the 9h after mixing. In the delay discounting task, each pig chose between two levers, one always delivering a small immediate reward, the other a large delayed reward with daily increasing delays, impulsive individuals being the ones discounting the value of the large reward quicker. Two novel strategies emerged: some pigs gradually switched their preference towards the small reward ('Switchers') as predicted, but others persistently preferred the large reward until they stopped making choices ('Omitters'). Outcome impulsivity itself was unrelated to these strategies, to urinary serotonin metabolite (5-HIAA) or dopamine metabolite (HVA) levels, aggression at weaning, or coping style. However, HVA was relatively higher in Omitters than Switchers, and positively correlated with behavioural measures of indecisiveness and frustration during choosing. The delay discounting task thus revealed two response strategies that seemed to be related to the activity of the dopamine system and might indicate a difference in execution, rather than outcome, impulsivity.