Report to VicRoads: Extent of unlicensed driving - follow up Ref 143 - Alcohol Harms Inquiry

Unlicensed driving is a serious problem in many countries, despite ongoing improvements in traffic law enforcement practices and technology. The term "unlicensed driver" is generally used to refer to people who drive or ride a motor vehicle without a valid driver's licence, including those who: • Have let their licence expire, • Have been disqualified or suspended from driving, • Hold an inappropriate licence for the class of vehicle they drive, • Drive outside the restrictions of a special licence, • Don’t currently hold a licence, or • Have never held a licence (Watson, 2003, 2004a)...

Redefining dermatologists’ role in skin cancer early detection and follow-up care

Early diagnosis of melanoma leads to the best prognosis for patients and may be more likely achieved when those who are at high risk for melanoma undergo regular and systematic monitoring. However, many people rarely or never see a dermatologist. Risk prediction models (recently reviewed by Usher-Smith et al ) could assist to triage people into preventive care appropriate for their risk profile. Most risk prediction models contain measures of phenotype including skin, eye and hair colour as well as genetic mutations. Almost all also contain the number and size of naevi, as well as the presence of naevi with atypical features which are independently associated with melanoma risk. In the absence of formal population-based screening programs for melanoma in most countries worldwide, people with high risk phenotypes may need to consider regular monitoring or self-monitoring of their naevi , especially since the vast majority of melanomas are found by people themselves or their friend and relatives. Another group of patients that will require regular monitoring are patients who have been successfully treated for their first melanoma, whose risk to develop a second melanoma is greatly increased . In a US study of 89,515 melanoma survivors those with a previous diagnosis of melanoma had a 9-fold increased risk of developing subsequent melanoma compared with the general population, equating to a rate of 3.76 per 1000 person-years, while in an Australian study, risk of subsequent melanoma was 6 per 1000 person-years. Regular follow-up is therefore essential for melanoma survivors, especially during the first few years after initial melanoma diagnosis.

Arson-associated homicide in Australia: A five year follow-up

Arson homicides are rare, representing only two percent of all homicides in Australia each year. In this study, data was collected from the AIC’s National Homicide Monitoring Program (NHMP) to build on previous research undertaken into arson-associated homicides (Davies & Mouzos 2007) and to provide more detailed analysis of cases and offenders. Over the period 1989 to 2010, there were 123 incidents of arson-associated homicide, involving 170 unique victims and 131 offenders. The majority of incidents (63%) occurred in the victim’s home and more than half (57%) of all victims were male. It was found that there has been a 44 percent increase in the number of incidents in the past decade. It is evident that a considerable proportion of the identified arson homicides involved a high degree of premeditation and planning. These homicides were commonly committed by an offender who was well known to the victim, with over half of the victims (56%) specifically targeted by the offender. This paper therefore provides a valuable insight into the nature of arson homicides and signposts areas for further investigation.

Nutritional rehabilitation in cystic fibrosis: A 5 year follow-up study

Previously, we reported catch-up weight gain, growth, and improved lung function in a group of malnourished cystic fibrosis (CF) children receiving aggressive nutritional supplementation for 1 year compared with a forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)-, height-, and sex-matched comparison group receiving standard therapy. To evaluate long-term effects, the clinical progress of both groups has been studied over a 5 year period. The supplemented group (n = 10) received supplements for a median of 1.35 years to achieve nutritional rehabilitation. Compared with the nonsupplemented group (n = 14), the previously supplemented group had lower mortality (2 vs. 4, N.S.) and significantly greater weight and height z scores at 4 and 5 years. The progression of pulmonary function abnormalities as measured by FEV, and forced vital capacity (FVC) slopes was greater at 3 years in the nonsupplemented group (FEV1, p < 0.05) but no significant differences in rates of deterioration of pulmonary function were seen after 5 years in the two groups of survivors. We conclude that intensive nutritional support for 1 year has both short-and long-term effects on nutrition and growth, still evident some years after the cessation of this therapeutic modality. Supplementation for periods of longer than 1 year may produce greater gains and possibly prolong the improvement in pulmonary function observed in the earlier study. © 1992 Raven Press, Ltd., New York.

A follow up MRI-based geometry and computational fluid dynamics study of carotid bifurcation

Cardiovascular disease is the leading causes of death in the developed world. Wall shear stress (WSS) is associated with the initiation and progression of atherogenesis. This study combined the recent advances in MR imaging and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and evaluated the patient-specific carotid bifurcation. The patient was followed up for 3 years. The geometry changes (tortuosity, curvature, ICA/CCA area ratios, central to the cross-sectional curvature, maximum stenosis) and the CFD factors (Velocity distribute, Wall Shear Stress (WSS) and Oscillatory Shear Index (OSI)) were compared at different time points.The carotid stenosis was a slight increase in the central to the cross-sectional curvature, and it was minor and variable curvature changes for carotid centerline. The OSI distribution presents ahigh-values in the same region where carotid stenosis and normal border, indicating complex flow and recirculation.The significant geometric changes observed during the follow-up may also cause significant changes in bifurcation hemodynamics.

Association between aneurysm shoulder stress and abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion: A longitudinal follow-up study

Background Aneurysm expansion rate is an important indicator of the potential risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture. Stress within the AAA wall is also thought to be a trigger for its rupture. However, the association between aneurysm wall stresses and expansion of AAA is unclear. Methods and Results Forty-four patients with AAAs were included in this longitudinal follow-up study. They were assessed by serial abdominal ultrasonography and computed tomography scans if a critical size was reached or a rapid expansion occurred. Patient-specific 3-dimensional AAA geometries were reconstructed from the follow-up computed tomography images. Structural analysis was performed to calculate the wall stresses of the AAA models at both baseline and final visit. A nonlinear large-strain finite element method was used to compute the wall-stress distribution. The relationship between wall stresses and expansion rate was investigated. Slowly and rapidly expanding aneurysms had comparable baseline maximum diameters (median, 4.35 cm [interquartile range, 4.12 to 5.0 cm] versus 4.6 cm [interquartile range, 4.2 to 5.0 cm]; P=0.32). Rapidly expanding AAAs had significantly higher shoulder stresses than slowly expanding AAAs (median, 300 kPa [interquartile range, 280 to 320 kPa] versus 225 kPa [interquartile range, 211 to 249 kPa]; P=0.0001). A good correlation between shoulder stress at baseline and expansion rate was found (r=0.71; P=0.0001). Conclusion A higher shoulder stress was found to have an association with a rapidly expanding AAA. Therefore, it may be useful for estimating the expansion of AAAs and improve risk stratification of patients with AAAs.

Responses of two species of mesquite to initial and follow-up applications of selected herbicides in a potted trial

Quilpie mesquite (Prosopis velutina) is an invasive woody weed that is believed to have been introduced into south-west Queensland in the 1930s. Following the withdrawal of 2,4,5-T, research on P. pallida resulted in revised recommendations for control of all Prosopis spp. in Queensland. Adoption of many of these recommendations for Quilpie mesquite control produced substandard results. Following a pilot trial, a shade-house experiment was conducted to determine the differences in susceptibility of two species of mesquite, P. velutina and P. pallida, to commonly available herbicides. It was hypothesized that P. velutina was less susceptible than P. pallida, based upon claims that the registered chemical recommendations for Prosopis spp. were not sufficiently effective on P. velutina. Nine foliar herbicide treatments were applied to potted shade-house plants. Treatment effects indicated differing susceptibility between the two species. P. velutina consistently showed less response to metsulfuron, fluroxypyr, 2,4-D/picloram and triclopyr/picloram, compared to the glyphosate formulations, where negligible differences occurred between the two species. The response to glyphosate was poor at all rates in this experiment. Re-application of herbicides to surviving plants indicated that susceptibility can decrease when follow-up application is in autumn and the time since initial application is short. The relationship between leaf structure and the volume of spray adhering to a plant was assessed across species. The herbicide captured by similar-sized plants of each species differed, with P. pallida retaining a greater volume of herbicide.

Temporomandibular disorders and related psychosocial factors in non-patients : A survey and a clinical follow-up study based on the RDC/TMD

Temporomandibular disorders (TMD) and psychosocial factors reportedly associate. The underlying factors remain partially obscure, however, and further studies are required to clarify the relationships. The aims of this study were thus to assess in a non-patient working population the prevalence of TMD and related symptoms, and to clinically diagnose and follow the natural courses of TMD over a one-year period. In addition, possible comorbidity of temporomandibular and/or neck muscle pain and perceived stress and their impact on work performance were investigated, as well as how various psychosocial aspects relate to TMD. A questionnaire was mailed to all 30- to 55-year-old employees of the Finnish Broadcasting Company Ltd. whose employment in the Helsinki area had lasted at least five years (n = 1784). Of the 1339 subjects, who returned the questionnaire, 241 were examined according to the RDC/TMD and standard neck muscle palpation methods. Clinical signs of temporomandibular and/or neck muscle pain were found in 118 subjects. One-year follow-up TMD examinations were conducted on 211 subjects. The prevalence of frequent painless TMJ-related symptoms was 10%, orofacial pain 7%, neck pain 38%, and headache 15%. TMD diagnoses were: myofascial pain (13%), disc displacements (16%), and arthralgia, osteoarthritis, osteoarthrosis (4%). Chronic myofascial pain was present in 7% and chronic disc displacement with reduction in 11% of the subjects. Symptoms were significantly associated with almost all the studied psychosocial symptoms. Reduced work performance was significantly positively associated with continuous pain, severity of pain, and health stress perception, and according to logistic regression, somatization with the probability of having chronic myofascial pain. It could be concluded based on the results of this study among a non-patient working population that TMD and related symptoms are common and associated with psychosocial factors. Moreover, myofascial pain and disc displacement with reduction are the most common diagnoses of TMD. In addition, self-reported health related stress, and continuous pain in temporomandibular and/or neck muscles are associated with reduced work performance, and somatization is significantly associated with chronic myofascial pain.

Smoking from Adolescence to Adulthood : A 15-year Follow-up of the North Karelia Youth Project

The aim of the study was to examine the effects of a smoking prevention program and smoking from early adolescence to early adulthood by using longitudinal data. In addition, predictors of smoking, smoking cessation, and associations of smoking with socio-economic factors and other health behaviours were assessed. The data was gathered in connection with the North Karelia Youth Project follow-up study during 15 years. A two-year cardiovascular disease risk factor prevention program was carried out among students from grades seven to nine in four schools in North Karelia. Two schools were selected from Kuopio province for the control schools. The North Karelia Project, a community-based cardiovascular disease prevention program, was implemented in the same area. At the baseline in 1978 the subjects were 13-year-olds (n=903) and in the following surveys 15-, 16-, 17-, 21- and 28-year-olds. The parents of the subjects were studied twice, in 1978 and 1980. A two-year intervention based on social influence approach prevented the onset of smoking for several years. The continuity of smoking from adolescence to adulthood was strong: most adolescent smokers were still smoking in adulthood. Moreover, approximately half of the 28-year-old smokers had started smoking after the age of 15. Previous smoking status and smoking by friends were the most important predictors of smoking. One third of all adolescent smokers had stopped smoking before the age of 28, averaging at 2.3 % annual decline. The socioeconomic status of the subject and, especially, education were strongly related to smoking, the lower socioeconomic groups smoking the most. Parental socioeconomic status and intergenerational social mobility were not significantly related to the smoking of the subject in adolescence or adulthood. Smoking was associated positively with the use of alcohol and negatively with physical activity from adolescence to adulthood. The results support the feasibility of a school-based social influence program with a community-based program in smoking prevention among adolescents. Strong continuity of smoking from adolescence to adulthood supports the importance of preventing the onset of smoking in adolescence. It would be useful to continue prevention programs also after the comprehensive school, since so many young start smoking after that. It would likewise be important to develop cessation programs tailor-made for adolescents and young adults. Additionally, the results support the importance of using methods based on social influence in smoking prevention and cessation programs, targeting especially such risk groups as those with low socioeconomic status as well as those with other unhealthy behaviours.

Leisure activities and obesity in adolescence : a follow-up study among twins

The aims of this dissertation were 1) to investigate associations of weight status of adolescents with leisure activities, and computer and cell phone use, and 2) to investigate environmental and genetic influences on body mass index (BMI) during adolescence. Finnish twins born in 1983–1987 responded to postal questionnaires at the ages of 11-12 (5184 participants), 14 (4643 participants), and 17 years (4168 participants). Information was obtained on weight and height, leisure activities including television viewing, video viewing, computer games, listening to music, board games, musical instrument playing, reading, arts, crafts, socializing, clubs, sports, and outdoor activities, as well as computer and cell phone use. Activity patterns were studied using latent class analysis. The relationship between leisure activities and weight status was investigated using logistic and linear regression. Genetic and environmental effects on BMI were studied using twin modeling. Of individual leisure activities, sports were associated with decreased overweight risk among boys in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, but among girls only cross-sectionally. Many sedentary leisure activities, such as video viewing (boys/girls), arts (boys), listening to music (boys), crafts (girls), and board games (girls), had positive associations with being overweight. Computer use was associated with a higher prevalence of overweight in cross-sectional analyses. However, musical instrument playing, commonly considered as a sedentary activity, was associated with a decreased overweight risk among boys. Four patterns of leisure activities were found: ‘Active and sociable’, ‘Active but less sociable’, ‘Passive but sociable’, and ‘Passive and solitary’. The prevalence of overweight was generally highest among the ‘Passive and solitary’ adolescents. Overall, leisure activity patterns did not predict overweight risk later in adolescence. An exception were 14-year-old ‘Passive and solitary’ girls who had the greatest risk of becoming overweight by 17 years of age. Heritability of BMI was high (0.58-0.83). Common environmental factors shared by family-members affected the BMI at 11-12 and 14 years but their effect had disappeared by 17 years of age. Additive genetic factors explained 90-96% of the BMI stability across adolescence. Genetic correlations across adolescence were high, which suggests similar genetic effects on BMI throughout adolescence, while unique environmental effects on BMI appeared to vary. These findings suggest that family-based interventions hold promise for obesity prevention into early and middle adolescence, but that later in adolescence obesity prevention should focus on individuals. A useful target could be adolescents' leisure time, and our findings highlight the importance of versatility in leisure activities.

Implications of co-twin dependence for twins' social interactions, mental health and alcohol use : A follow-up study of Finnish twins from adolescence to early adulthood

Objective: The aim of the present study was to examine co-twin dependence and its impact on twins' social contacts, leisure-time activities and psycho-emotional well-being. The role of co-twin dependence was also examined as a moderator of genetic and environmental influences on alcohol use in adolescence and in early adulthood. Methods: The present report is based on the Finnish Twin Cohort Study (FinnTwin16), a population-based study of five consecutive birth cohorts of Finnish twins born in the years 1975-1979. Baseline assessments were collected through mailed questionnaires, within two months of the twins' sixteenth birthday yielding replies from 5563 twin individuals. All respondent twins were sent follow-up questionnaires at ages of 17, 18½, and in early adulthood, when twins were 22-27 years old. Measures: The questionnaires included a survey of health habits and attitudes, a symptom checklist and questions about twins' relationships with parents, peers and co-twin. Measures used were twins' self-reports of their own dependence and their co-twin's dependence at age 16, reports of twins' leisure-time activities and social contacts, alcohol use, psychological distress and somatic symptoms both in adolescence and in early adulthood. Results: In the present study 25.6% of twins reported dependence on their co-twin. There were gender and zygosity differences in dependence, females and MZ twins were more likely to report dependence than males and DZ twins. Co-twin dependence can be viewed on one hand as an individual characteristic, but on the other hand as a pattern of dyadic interaction that is mutually regulated and reciprocal. Most of the twins (80.7%) were either concordantly co-twin dependent or concordantly co-twin independent. The associations of co-twin dependence with twins' social interactions and psycho-emotional characteristics were relatively consistent both in adolescence and in early adulthood. Dependence was related to higher contact frequency and a higher proportion of shared leisure-time activities between twin siblings at the baseline and the follow-up. Additionally co-twin dependence was associated with elevated levels of psycho-emotional distress and somatic complaints, especially in adolescence. In the framework of gene-environment interaction, these results suggest that the genetic contribution to individual differences in drinking patterns is dependent on the nature of the pair-wise relationship of twin siblings. Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that co-twin dependence is a genuine feature of the co-twin relationship and shows the importance of studying the impact of various features of co-twin relationships on individual twins' social and psycho-emotional life and well-being. Our study also offers evidence that differences in inter-personal relationships contribute to the effects of genetic propensities.