Timing of infection of macadamia fruit by Pseudocercospora macadamiae and climatic effects on growth and spore germination.

Pseudocercospora macadamiae causes husk spot of macadamia. Husk spot control would be improved by verifying the stages in fruit development susceptible to infection, and determine some of the climatic conditions likely to lead to high disease pressure periods in the field. Our results showed that the percent conidia germination and growth of germ tubes and mycelia of P. macadamiae were greatest at 26 degrees C, with better conidia germination associated with high relative humidity and free water. The exposure of match-head-sized and pea-sized fruit stages to natural P. macadamiae inoculum in the field led to 2 5-fold increases in husk spot incidence, and up to 8.5-fold increases in premature abscission, compared with unexposed fruit. Exposure of fruit stages later than match-head-sized and pea-sized fruit generally caused no further increases in disease incidence or premature abscission. Climatic conditions were found to have a strong influence on the behaviour of P. macadamiae, the host, oil accumulation, and the subsequent impact of husk spot on premature abscission. Our findings suggest that fungicide application should target fruit at the match-head-sized stage of development in order to best reduce yield losses, particularly in seasons where oil accumulation in fruit is prolonged and climatic conditions are optimal for P. macadamiae.

Climatic effects on flood frequency: an example from southern Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): After 1960, the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, an ephemeral stream normally dominated by summer floods, experienced an apparent increased frequency of flooding coincident with an increased percentage of annual floods occurring in fall and winter. This shift reflects large-scale and low-frequency changes in the eastern Pacific Ocean, in part associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. ... Questions are raised about the validity of standard methods of flood-frequency analysis to estimate regulatory and designed floods.

The climatic effects of the direct injection of water vapour into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions

We describe a novel mechanism that can significantly lower the amplitude of the climatic response to certain large volcanic eruptions and examine its impact with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. If sufficiently large amounts of water vapour enter the stratosphere, a climatically significant amount of water vapour can be left over in the lower stratosphere after the eruption, even after sulphate aerosol formation. This excess stratospheric humidity warms the tropospheric climate, and acts to balance the climatic cooling induced by the volcanic aerosol, especially because the humidity anomaly lasts for a period that is longer than the residence time of aerosol in the stratosphere. In particular, northern hemisphere high latitude cooling is reduced in magnitude. We discuss this mechanism in the context of the discrepancy between the observed and modelled cooling following the Krakatau eruption in 1883. We hypothesize that moist coignimbrite plumes caused by pyroclastic flows travelling over ocean rather than land, resulting from an eruption close enough to the ocean, might provide the additional source of stratospheric water vapour.

Climatic effects on the phenology of geophytes

Nowadays, the scientific and social significance of the research of climatic effects has become outstanding. In order to be able to predict the ecological effects of the global climate change, it is necessary to study monitoring databases of the past and explore connections. For the case study mentioned in the title, historical weather data series from the Hungarian Meteorological Service and Szaniszló Priszter’s monitoring data on the phenology of geophytes have been used. These data describe on which days the observed geophytes budded, were blooming and withered. In our research we have found that the classification of the observed years according to phenological events and the classification of those according to the frequency distribution of meteorological parameters show similar patterns, and the one variable group is suitable for explaining the pattern shown by the other one. Furthermore, our important result is that the dates of all three observed phenophases correlate significantly with the average of the daily temperature fluctuation in the given period. The second most often significant parameter is the number of frosty days, this also seem to be determinant for all phenophases. Usual approaches based on the temperature sum and the average temperature don’t seem to be really important in this respect. According to the results of the research, it has turned out that the phenology of geophytes can be well modelled with the linear combination of suitable meteorological parameters

Climatic variables and altitude as predictors of anuran species richness and number of reproductive modes in Brazil

Because anuran species are highly dependent on environmental variables, we hypothesized that anuran species richness and the number of reproductive modes from different Brazilian localities vary according to climatic and altitudinal variables. Published data were compiled from 36 Brazilian localities and climatic and altitudinal data were extracted from an available database. A partial redundancy analysis (pRDA) showed that 23.5% of the data set's variation was explained by climatic and altitudinal data, while the remaining 76.5% remained unexplained. This analysis suggests that other factors not analysed herein may also be important for predicting anuran species richness and the number of reproductive modes in Brazil. Altitude and total annual rainfall were positively correlated with anuran species richness and the number of reproductive modes, and total annual rainfall was strongly associated with these two biotic variables in the triplot of pRDA. The positive association of total annual rainfall and the negative association of the concentration of annual rainfall were already expected based on physiological and reproductive requirements of anurans. On the other hand, temperature was not associated with richness or the number of reproductive modes. Copyright © 2010 Cambridge University Press.

What determines soil organic carbon stocks in the grazing lands of north-eastern Australia?

This study aimed to unravel the effects of climate, topography, soil, and grazing management on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the grazing lands of north-eastern Australia. We sampled for SOC stocks at 98 sites from 18 grazing properties across Queensland, Australia. These samples covered four nominal grazing management classes (Continuous, Rotational, Cell, and Exclosure), eight broad soil types, and a strong tropical to subtropical climatic gradient. Temperature and vapour-pressure deficit explained >80% of the variability of SOC stocks at cumulative equivalent mineral masses nominally representing 0-0.1 and 0-0.3m depths. Once detrended of climatic effects, SOC stocks were strongly influenced by total standing dry matter, soil type, and the dominant grass species. At 0-0.3m depth only, there was a weak negative association between stocking rate and climate-detrended SOC stocks, and Cell grazing was associated with smaller SOC stocks than Continuous grazing and Exclosure. In future, collection of quantitative information on stocking intensity, frequency, and duration may help to improve understanding of the effect of grazing management on SOC stocks. Further exploration of the links between grazing management and above- and below-ground biomass, perhaps inferred through remote sensing and/or simulation modelling, may assist large-area mapping of SOC stocks in northern Australia. © CSIRO 2013.

Climate forcing on avian life history

In the 21st century, human-induced global climate change has been highlighted as one of the most serious threats to ecosystems worldwide. According to global climate scenarios, the mean temperature in Finland is expected to increase by 1.8 4.0°C by the end of the century. The regional and seasonal change in temperature has predicted to be spatially and temporally asymmetric, where the High-Arctic and Antarctic areas and winter and spring seasons have been projected to face the highest temperature increase. To understand how species respond to the ongoing climate change, we need to study how climate affects species in different phases of their life cycle. The impact of climate on breeding and migration of eight large-sized bird species was studied in this thesis, taking food availability into account. The findings show that climatic variables have considerable impact on the life-history traits of large-sized birds in northern Europe. The magnitude of climatic effects on migration and breeding was comparable with that of food supply, conventionally regarded as the main factor affecting these life-history traits. Based on the results of this thesis and the current climate scenarios, the following not mutually exclusive responses are possible in the near future. Firstly, asymmetric climate change may result in a mistiming of breeding because mild winters and early spring may lead to earlier breeding, whereas offspring are hatching into colder conditions which elevate mortality. Secondly, climate induced responses can differ between species with different breeding tactics (income vs. capital breeding), so that especially capital breeders can gain advantage on global warming as they can sustain higher energy resources. Thirdly, increasing precipitation has the potential to reduce the breeding success of many species by exposing nestlings to more severe post-hatching conditions and hampering the hunting conditions of parents. Fourthly, decreasing ice cover and earlier ice-break in the Baltic Sea will allow earlier spring migration in waterfowl. In eiders, this can potentially lead to more productive breeding. Fifthly, warming temperatures can favour parents preparing for breeding and increase nestling survival. Lastly, the climate-induced phenological changes in life history events will likely continue. Furthermore, interactions between climate and food resources can be complex and interact with each other. Eiders provide an illustrative example of this complexity, being caught in the crossfire between more benign ice conditions and lower salinity negatively affecting their prime food resource. The general conclusion is that climate is controlling not only the phenology of the species but also their reproductive output, thus affecting the entire population dynamics.

Experimental studies on new particle formation and ions

Atmospheric aerosol particles have significant climatic effects. Secondary new particle formation is a globally important source of these particles. Currently, the mechanisms of particle formation and the vapours participating in this process are, however, not truly understood. The recently developed Neutral cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS) was widely used in field studies of atmospheric particle formation. The NAIS was calibrated and found to be in adequate agreement with the reference instruments. It was concluded that NAIS can be reliably used to measure ions and particles near the sizes where the atmospheric particle formation begins. The main focus of this thesis was to study new particle formation and participation of ions in this process. To attain this objective, particle and ion formation and growth rates were studied in various environments - at several field sites in Europe, in previously rarely studied sites in Antarctica and Siberia and also in an indoor environment. New particle formation was observed at all sites were studied and the observations were used as indicatives of the particle formation mechanisms. Particle size-dependent growth rates and nucleation mode hygroscopic growth factors were examined to obtain information on the particle growth. It was found that the atmospheric ions participate in the initial steps of new particle formation, although their contribution was minor in the boundary layer. The highest atmospheric particle formation rates were observed at the most polluted sites where the role of ions was the least pronounced. Furthermore, the increase of particle growth rate with size suggested that enhancement of the growth by ions was negligible. Participation of organic vapours in the particle growth was supported by laboratory and field observations. It was addressed that secondary new particle formation can also be a significant source of indoor air particles. These results, extending over a wide variety of environments, give support to previous observations and increase understanding on new particle formation on a global scale.

Observations on the first steps of atmospheric particle formation and growth

Atmospheric aerosol particles have a significant impact on air quality, human health and global climate. The climatic effects of secondary aerosol are currently among the largest uncertainties limiting the scientific understanding of future and past climate changes. To better estimate the climatic importance of secondary aerosol particles, detailed information on atmospheric particle formation mechanisms and the vapours forming the aerosol is required. In this thesis we studied these issues by applying novel instrumentation in a boreal forest to obtain direct information on the very first steps of atmospheric nucleation and particle growth. Additionally, we used detailed laboratory experiments and process modelling to determine condensational growth properties, such as saturation vapour pressures, of dicarboxylic acids, which are organic acids often found in atmospheric samples. Based on our studies, we came to four main conclusions: 1) In the boreal forest region, both sulphurous compounds and organics are needed for secondary particle formation, the previous contributing mainly to particle formation and latter to growth; 2) A persistent pool of molecular clusters, both neutral and charged, is present and participates in atmospheric nucleation processes in boreal forests; 3) Neutral particle formation seems to dominate over ion-mediated mechanisms, at least in the boreal forest boundary layer; 4) The subcooled liquid phase saturation vapour pressures of C3-C9 dicarboxylic acids are of the order of 1e-5 1e-3 Pa at atmospheric temperatures, indicating that a mixed pre-existing particulate phase is required for their condensation in atmospheric conditions. The work presented in this thesis gives tools to better quantify the aerosol source provided by secondary aerosol formation. The results are particularly useful when estimating, for instance, anthropogenic versus biogenic influences and the fractions of secondary aerosol formation explained by neutral or ion-mediated nucleation mechanisms, at least in environments where the average particle formation rates are of the order of some tens of particles per cubic centimeter or lower. However, as the factors driving secondary particle formation are likely to vary depending on the environment, measurements on atmospheric nucleation and particle growth are needed from around the world to be able to better describe the secondary particle formation, and assess its climatic effects on a global scale.

Insights into Atmospheric Nucleation

Atmospheric aerosol particles have a strong impact on the global climate. A deep understanding of the physical and chemical processes affecting the atmospheric aerosol climate system is crucial in order to describe those processes properly in global climate models. Besides the climatic effects, aerosol particles can deteriorate e.g. visibility and human health. Nucleation is a fundamental step in atmospheric new particle formation. However, details of the atmospheric nucleation mechanisms have remained unresolved. The main reason for that has been the non-existence of instruments capable of measuring neutral newly formed particles in the size range below 3 nm in diameter. This thesis aims to extend the detectable particle size range towards close-to-molecular sizes (~1nm) of freshly nucleated clusters, and by direct measurement obtain the concentrations of sub-3 nm particles in atmospheric environment and in well defined laboratory conditions. In the work presented in this thesis, new methods and instruments for the sub-3 nm particle detection were developed and tested. The selected approach comprises four different condensation based techniques and one electrical detection scheme. All of them are capable to detect particles with diameters well below 3 nm, some even down to ~1 nm. The developed techniques and instruments were deployed in the field measurements as well as in laboratory nucleation experiments. Ambient air studies showed that in a boreal forest environment a persistent population of 1-2 nm particles or clusters exists. The observation was done using 4 different instruments showing a consistent capability for the direct measurement of the atmospheric nucleation. The results from the laboratory experiments showed that sulphuric acid is a key species in the atmospheric nucleation. The mismatch between the earlier laboratory data and ambient observations on the dependency of nucleation rate on sulphuric acid concentration was explained. The reason was shown to be associated in the inefficient growth of the nucleated clusters and in the insufficient detection efficiency of particle counters used in the previous experiments. Even though the exact molecular steps of nucleation still remain an open question, the instrumental techniques developed in this work as well as their application in laboratory and ambient studies opened a new view into atmospheric nucleation and prepared the way for investigating the nucleation processes with more suitable tools.

Direct detection of atmospheric particle formation using the Neutral cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer

Aerosol particles play an important role in the Earth s atmosphere and in the climate system: they scatter and absorb solar radiation, facilitate chemical processes, and serve as seeds for cloud formation. Secondary new particle formation (NPF) is a globally important source of these particles. Currently, the mechanisms of particle formation and the vapors participating in this process are, however, not truly understood. In order to fully explain atmospheric NPF and subsequent growth, we need to measure directly the very initial steps of the formation processes. This thesis investigates the possibility to study atmospheric particle formation using a recently developed Neutral cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS). First, the NAIS was calibrated and intercompared, and found to be in good agreement with the reference instruments both in the laboratory and in the field. It was concluded that NAIS can be reliably used to measure small atmospheric ions and particles directly at the sizes where NPF begins. Second, several NAIS systems were deployed simultaneously at 12 European measurement sites to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of particle formation events. The sites represented a variety of geographical and atmospheric conditions. The NPF events were detected using NAIS systems at all of the sites during the year-long measurement period. Various particle formation characteristics, such as formation and growth rates, were used as indicators of the relevant processes and participating compounds in the initial formation. In a case of parallel ion and neutral cluster measurements, we also estimated the relative contribution of ion-induced and neutral nucleation to the total particle formation. At most sites, the particle growth rate increased with the increasing particle size indicating that different condensing vapors are participating in the growth of different-sized particles. The results suggest that, in addition to sulfuric acid, organic vapors contribute to the initial steps of NPF and to the subsequent growth, not just later steps of the particle growth. As a significant new result, we found out that the total particle formation rate varied much more between the different sites than the formation rate of charged particles. The results infer that the ion-induced nucleation has a minor contribution to particle formation in the boundary layer in most of the environments. These results give tools to better quantify the aerosol source provided by secondary NPF in various environments. The particle formation characteristics determined in this thesis can be used in global models to assess NPF s climatic effects.

Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed.

Modeling of solar radiation management: a comparison of simulations using reduced solar constant and stratospheric sulphate aerosols

The climatic effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) geoengineering have been often modeled by simply reducing the solar constant. This is most likely valid only for space sunshades and not for atmosphere and surface based SRM methods. In this study, a global climate model is used to evaluate the differences in the climate response to SRM by uniform solar constant reduction and stratospheric aerosols. Our analysis shows that when global mean warming from a doubling of CO2 is nearly cancelled by both these methods, they are similar when important surface and tropospheric climate variables are considered. However, a difference of 1 K in the global mean stratospheric (61-9.8 hPa) temperature is simulated between the two SRM methods. Further, while the global mean surface diffuse radiation increases by similar to 23 % and direct radiation decreases by about 9 % in the case of sulphate aerosol SRM method, both direct and diffuse radiation decrease by similar fractional amounts (similar to 1.0 %) when solar constant is reduced. When CO2 fertilization effects from elevated CO2 concentration levels are removed, the contribution from shaded leaves to gross primary productivity (GPP) increases by 1.8 % in aerosol SRM because of increased diffuse light. However, this increase is almost offset by a 15.2 % decline in sunlit contribution due to reduced direct light. Overall both the SRM simulations show similar decrease in GPP (similar to 8 %) and net primary productivity (similar to 3 %). Based on our results we conclude that the climate states produced by a reduction in solar constant and addition of aerosols into the stratosphere can be considered almost similar except for two important aspects: stratospheric temperature change and the consequent implications for the dynamics and the chemistry of the stratosphere and the partitioning of direct versus diffuse radiation reaching the surface. Further, the likely dependence of global hydrological cycle response on aerosol particle size and the latitudinal and height distribution of aerosols is discussed.

Ecologia do jacaré de papo amarelo (Caiman latirostris, Daudin 1802) em ambiente urbano no município do Rio de Janeiro

Estudos ecológicos em meio urbano servem de subsídios à estratégias de conservação, propostas de manejo e/ou adequações dos planejamentos urbanos. No presente estudo analisei a ecologia do jacaré de papo amarelo em meio urbano no muncípio do Rio de Janeiro. O estudo foi realizado em um complexo de lagoas inseridos em meio a cidade do RJ. O complexo lagunar de Jacarepaguá está situado entre os principais bairros que mais cresceram nos últimos dez anos, tais como: Barra da Tijuca, Recreio dos Bandeirantes e a região de Jacarepaguá. Estudei o crescimento corpóreo do jacaré de papo amarelo e o seu desenvolvimento até a idade da primeira reprodução. O processo de crescimento individual é fundamental para todos os organismos, e seus respectivos estudos têm sido um assunto de preocupação ao manejo e conservação de espécies. Os dados para análise da taxa de crescimento individual compreenderam de recapturas de diferentes animais após intervalos conhecidos (data da recaptura - data da captura). Realizei um total de 20 recapturas de jacarés dentre 352 capturas. A maioria dos estudos de crescimento de jacarés foram realizadas em regiões mais frias, de latitudes mais baixas, logo os efeitos climáticos podem ser um fator importante no desenvolvimento desses animais. Após determinar a idade dos jacarés procurei analisar a distribuição de classes etárias utilizando a idade dos animais, e a razão sexual para entender a dinâmica da população através de sua estrutura etária e sexo. Foi feito uma distribuição por classes etárias e razão sexual dos indivíduos da população e a distribuição dos estágios de idade subsidiaram uma tabela de vida para C. latirostris em meio urbano. Foram capturados 68 (19,3%) jacarés juvenis, 180 (51,1%) sub adultos, e 104 (29,6%) adultos. A razão sexual para os jacarés capturados no Complexo Lagunar de Jacarepaguá foi de 3,3:1 (macho:fêmea), onde capturei 213 (78,7%) machos para 65 (21,3%) fêmeas e 90 jacarés juvenis onde não é possível identificar o sexo devido a idade. A taxa líquida de crescimento da população apresentou um valor negativo, o que corrobora a hipótese alternativa que a população estaria diminuindo. Conclui que a população de jacarés no complexo lagunar de Jacarepaguá não está crescendo. Devido a interação com o meio urbano ser cada vez mais intensificada realizei uma pesquisa sócio ambiental para entender qual é a relação da população humana em relação ao convívio com os jacarés em seu dia a dia na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Desta forma, foi realizado um estudo com o objetivo de identificar as percepções ambientais e concepções das pessoas em relação ao convívio com jacarés nos bairros do Recreio dos Bandeirantes e Barra da Tijuca, no Rio de Janeiro. Os dados coletados representaram conceituações negativo-positivas que os entrevistados apresentaram sobre a relação com os jacarés em áreas urbanas no município do Rio de Janeiro. Por meio deste estudo, conclui-se que há uma carência de elaboração de propostas de desenvolvimento, de estratégias de educação ambiental e melhor divulgação sobre noções ecológicas para a preservação de jacarés e seus ambientes, tanto para a população como para os responsáveis técnicos dos programas sócioambientais do município.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.