Traffic incident clearance time and arrival time prediction based on hazard models

Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an ffective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction odels are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

Manually calculated oesophageal bolus clearance time increases in parallel with reflux severity at impedance-pH monitoring.

BACKGROUND Oesophageal clearance has been scarcely studied. AIMS Oesophageal clearance in endoscopy-negative heartburn was assessed to detect differences in bolus clearance time among patients sub-grouped according to impedance-pH findings. METHODS In 118 consecutive endoscopy-negative heartburn patients impedance-pH monitoring was performed off-therapy. Acid exposure time, number of refluxes, baseline impedance, post-reflux swallow-induced peristaltic wave index and both automated and manual bolus clearance time were calculated. Patients were sub-grouped into pH/impedance positive (abnormal acid exposure and/or number of refluxes) and pH/impedance negative (normal acid exposure and number of refluxes), the former further subdivided on the basis of abnormal/normal acid exposure time (pH+/-) and abnormal/normal number of refluxes (impedance+/-). RESULTS Poor correlation (r=0.35) between automated and manual bolus clearance time was found. Manual bolus clearance time progressively decreased from pH+/impedance+ (42.6s), pH+/impedance- (27.1s), pH-/impedance+ (17.8s) to pH-/impedance- (10.8s). There was an inverse correlation between manual bolus clearance time and both baseline impedance and post-reflux swallow-induced peristaltic wave index, and a direct correlation between manual bolus clearance and acid exposure time. A manual bolus clearance time value of 14.8s had an accuracy of 93% to differentiate pH/impedance positive from pH/impedance negative patients. CONCLUSIONS When manually measured, bolus clearance time reflects reflux severity, confirming the pathophysiological relevance of oesophageal clearance in reflux disease.

A microscopic simulation model to estimate bus rapid transit station bus capacity

The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) station is the interface between passengers and services. The station is crucial to line operation as it is typically the only location where buses can pass each other. Congestion may occur here when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the platform lane blocking the passing lane. Further, some systems include operation where express buses do not observe the station, resulting in a proportion of non-stopping buses. It is important to understand the operation of the station under this type of operation and its effect on BRT line capacity. This study uses microscopic traffic simulation modeling to treat the BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station bus capacity and BRT line bus capacity. First, the simulation model is developed for the limit state scenario and then a statistical model is defined and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time characteristics. A field survey was conducted to verify the parameters such as dwell time, clearance time and coefficient of variation of dwell time to obtain relevant station bus capacity. The proposed model for BRT bus capacity provides a better understanding of BRT line capacity and is useful to transit authorities in BRT planning, design and operation.

Modelling busway operation with mixed stopping and non-stopping buses

This thesis investigated the complexity of busway operation with stopping and non-stopping buses using field data and microscopic simulation modelling. The proposed approach made significant recommendations to transit authorities to achieve the most practicable system capacity for existing and new busways. The empirical equations developed in this research and newly introduced analysis methods will be ideal tools for transit planners to achieve optimal reliability of busways.

Pharyngeal clearance and pharyngeal transit time determined by a biomagnetic method in normal humans

Clearance and transit time are parameters of great value in studies of digestive transit. Such parameters are nowadays obtained by means of scintigraphy and videofluoroscopy, with each technique having advantages and disadvantages. In this study we present a new, noninvasive method to study swallowing pharyngeal clearance (PC) and pharyngeal transit time (PTT). This new method is based on variations of magnetic flux produced by a magnetic bolus passing through the pharynx and detected by an AC biosusceptometer (ACB). These measurements may be performed in a simple way. cause no discomfort. and do not use radiation. We measured PC in 8 volunteers (7 males and I female. 23-33 years old) and PTT in 8 other volunteers (7 males and I female. 21-29 years old). PC was 0.82 +/- 0.10 s (mean +/- SD) and PTT was 0.75 +/- 0.03 s. The results were similar for PC but longer for PTT than those determined by means of other techniques. We conclude that the biomagnetic method can be used to evaluate PC and PTT.

Rule-based transit signal priority control method using a real-time transit travel time prediction model

An advanced rule-based Transit Signal Priority (TSP) control method is presented in this paper. An on-line transit travel time prediction model is the key component of the proposed method, which enables the selection of the most appropriate TSP plans for the prevailing traffic and transit condition. The new method also adopts a priority plan re-development feature that enables modifying or even switching the already implemented priority plan to accommodate changes in the traffic conditions. The proposed method utilizes conventional green extension and red truncation strategies and also two new strategies including green truncation and queue clearance. The new method is evaluated against a typical active TSP strategy and also the base case scenario assuming no TSP control in microsimulation. The evaluation results indicate that the proposed method can produce significant benefits in reducing the bus delay time and improving the service regularity with negligible adverse impacts on the non-transit street traffic.

Development of a rapid and validated method for investigating the metabolism of scoparone in rat using ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Scoparone (6,7-dimethoxycoumarin) is known to have a wide range of pharmacological properties. In this study, a rapid and validated ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC/ESI-QTof-MS) method was developed to investigate the metabolism of scoparone in rat for the first time. The new method reduced the sample handling and analytical time by three- to six-fold, and the detection limit by five- to 1000-fold, compared to published methods. Far more metabolites were detected and identified compared to published data, which were preliminarily identified as scopoletin, isoscopoletin, isofraxidin, and fraxidin, respectively, when subjected to tandem mass spectrometry analyses. It is found that the metabolic trajectory of scoparone in rat focused on phase I metabolism which is obviously different from published results, and revealed a wide range of pharmacological properties of scoparone partly attributed to the bioactivities of its metabolites.

Integrating time forgetting mechanisms into topic-based user interest profiling

The rapid development of the World Wide Web has created massive information leading to the information overload problem. Under this circumstance, personalization techniques have been brought out to help users in finding content which meet their personalized interests or needs out of massively increasing information. User profiling techniques have performed the core role in this research. Traditionally, most user profiling techniques create user representations in a static way. However, changes of user interests may occur with time in real world applications. In this research we develop algorithms for mining user interests by integrating time decay mechanisms into topic-based user interest profiling. Time forgetting functions will be integrated into the calculation of topic interest measurements on in-depth level. The experimental study shows that, considering temporal effects of user interests by integrating time forgetting mechanisms shows better performance of recommendation.

Investigation of a radial-inflow bleed as a potential for compressor clearance control

The mismatch in thermal response between a High Pressure Compressor (HPC) drum and casing is a limiting factor in the reduction of compressor clearance. An experimental test rig has been used to demonstrate the concept of radial inflow to reduce the thermal time constant of HPC discs. The testing uses a simulated idle - Maximum Take Off (MTO) - idle transient in order to measure the thermal response directly. The testing is fully scaled in the dimensionless sense to engine conditions. A simple closure model based on lumped capacitance is used to illustrate the scope of potential benefits. The proof-of-concept testing shows that HPC disc time constant reductions of the order 2 are feasible with a radial-inflow bleed of only 4% of bore flow at scaled MTO conditions. Using the experimental results, the simple closure modelling suggests that for a stage with a significant mismatch in thermal response, reductions in 2D axis-symmetric clearance of as much as 50% at MTO conditions may be possible along with significant scope for improvements at cruise conditions. Copyright © 2013 by ASME.

Seasonal variations in growth and clearance rate of the Zhikong scallop Chlamys farreri suspended in the deep water of Haizhou Bay, China

The growth and survival of the Zhikong scallop Chlamys farreri suspended in deep water of Haizhou Bay were studied from July 2007 to June 2008, and the biodeposition method was used to estimate the clearance rate of C. farreri under field conditions. Results showed that the scallop grew fast during all the culture time, with the exception of summer. The condition index of the scallop increased with time and reached the highest value in spring of the second year. The survival of scallops was 60.8 +/- A 3.9% at the end of this study, mortality occurring mainly during the summer and autumn of the first year. The clearance rate fluctuated obviously with season,with the highest value in September 2007, and the lowest value in March 2008. Factors accounting for variations in growth and clearance rate of scallops are also discussed.

HPV clearance and the neglected role of stochasticity.

Clearance of anogenital and oropharyngeal HPV infections is attributed primarily to a successful adaptive immune response. To date, little attention has been paid to the potential role of stochastic cell dynamics in the time it takes to clear an HPV infection. In this study, we combine mechanistic mathematical models at the cellular level with epidemiological data at the population level to disentangle the respective roles of immune capacity and cell dynamics in the clearing mechanism. Our results suggest that chance-in form of the stochastic dynamics of basal stem cells-plays a critical role in the elimination of HPV-infected cell clones. In particular, we find that in immunocompetent adolescents with cervical HPV infections, the immune response may contribute less than 20% to virus clearance-the rest is taken care of by the stochastic proliferation dynamics in the basal layer. In HIV-negative individuals, the contribution of the immune response may be negligible.

The Adult Cystic Fibrosis Airway Microbiota Is Stable over Time and Infection Type, and Highly Resilient to Antibiotic Treatment of Exacerbations

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is characterized by defective mucociliary clearance and chronic airway infection by a complex microbiota. Infection, persistent inflammation and periodic episodes of acute pulmonary exacerbation contribute to an irreversible decline in CF lung function. While the factors leading to acute exacerbations are poorly understood, antibiotic treatment can temporarily resolve pulmonary symptoms and partially restore lung function. Previous studies indicated that exacerbations may be associated with changes in microbial densities and the acquisition of new microbial species. Given the complexity of the CF microbiota, we applied massively parallel pyrosequencing to identify changes in airway microbial community structure in 23 adult CF patients during acute pulmonary exacerbation, after antibiotic treatment and during periods of stable disease. Over 350,000 sequences were generated, representing nearly 170 distinct microbial taxa. Approximately 60% of sequences obtained were from the recognized CF pathogens Pseudomonas and Burkholderia, which were detected in largely non-overlapping patient subsets. In contrast, other taxa including Prevotella, Streptococcus, Rothia and Veillonella were abundant in nearly all patient samples. Although antibiotic treatment was associated with a small decrease in species richness, there was minimal change in overall microbial community structure. Furthermore, microbial community composition was highly similar in patients during an exacerbation and when clinically stable, suggesting that exacerbations may represent intrapulmonary spread of infection rather than a change in microbial community composition. Mouthwash samples, obtained from a subset of patients, showed a nearly identical distribution of taxa as expectorated sputum, indicating that aspiration may contribute to colonization of the lower airways. Finally, we observed a strong correlation between low species richness and poor lung function. Taken together, these results indicate that the adult CF lung microbiome is largely stable through periods of exacerbation and antibiotic treatment and that short-term compositional changes in the airway microbiota do not account for CF pulmonary exacerbations.

Clinical grade allogeneic human mesenchymal stem cells restore alveolar fluid clearance in human lungs rejected for transplantation

The lack of suitable donors for all solid-organ transplant programs is exacerbated in lung transplantation by the low utilization of potential donor lungs, due primarily to donor lung injury and dysfunction, including pulmonary edema. The current studies were designed to determine if intravenous clinical-grade human mesenchymal stem (stromal) cells (hMSCs) would be effective in restoring alveolar fluid clearance (AFC) in the human ex vivo lung perfusion model, using lungs that had been deemed unsuitable for transplantation and had been subjected to prolonged ischemic time. The human lungs were perfused with 5% albumin in a balanced electrolyte solution and oxygenated with continuous positive airway pressure. Baseline AFC was measured in the control lobe and if AFC was impaired (defined as

Shortened Lung Clearance Index is a repeatable and sensitive test in children and adults with cystic fibrosis

Background: Lung clearance index (LCI) derived from sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) multiple breath washout (MBW) is a sensitive measure of lung disease in people with cystic fibrosis (CF). However, it can be time-consuming, limiting its use clinically. Aim: To compare the repeatability, sensitivity and test duration of LCI derived from washout to 1/30th (LCI1/30), 1/20th (LCI1/20) and 1/10th (LCI1/10) to ‘standard’ LCI derived from washout to 1/40th initial concentration (LCI1/40). Methods: Triplicate MBW test results from 30 clinically stable people with CF and 30 healthy controls were analysed retrospectively. MBW tests were performed using 0.2% SF6 and a modified Innocor device. All LCI end points were calculated using SimpleWashout software. Repeatability was assessed using coefficient of variation (CV%). The proportion of people with CF with and without abnormal LCI and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) % predicted was compared. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve statistics were calculated. Test duration of all LCI end points was compared using paired t tests. Results: In people with CF, LCI1/40 CV% (p=0.16), LCI1/30 CV%, (p=0.53), LCI1/20 CV% (p=0.14) and LCI1/10 CV% (p=0.25) was not significantly different to controls. The sensitivity of LCI1/40, LCI1/30 and LCI1/20 to the presence of CF was equal (67%). The sensitivity of LCI1/10 and FEV1% predicted was lower (53% and 47% respectively). Area under the ROC curve (95% CI) for LCI1/40, LCI1/30, LCI1/20, LCI1/10 and FEV1% predicted was 0.89 (0.80 to 0.97), 0.87 (0.77 to 0.96), 0.87 (0.78 to 0.96), 0.83 (0.72 to 0.94) and 0.73 (0.60 to 0.86), respectively. Test duration of LCI1/30, LCI1/20 and LCI1/10 was significantly shorter compared with the test duration of LCI1/40 in people with CF (p<0.0001) equating to a 5%, 9% and 15% time saving, respectively. Conclusions: In this study, LCI1/20 was a repeatable and sensitive measure with equal diagnostic performance to LCI1/40. LCI1/20 was shorter, potentially offering a more feasible research and clinical measure.