Um estudo sobre os impactos da surpresa dos indicadores macroeconômicos de atividade e inflação no mercado futuro brasileiro de juros

As diretrizes de política monetária são definidas com base em resultados dos indicadores macroeconômicos divulgados ao mercado periodicamente. Os agentes deste mercado respondem rapidamente às alterações de cenário, com o objetivo de obter lucro ou evitar perdas financeiras expressivas. Com este motivacional, a proposta deste trabalho é avaliar como reage o mercado futuro de juros diante da divulgação de surpresas em determinados indicadores macroeconômicos, propondo um indicador de surpresa agregado para prever os impactos causados. Através dos dados extraídos da Bloomberg e da BM&F Bovespa, foi construída uma base de dados simplificada pela adoção de premissas para mensuração do impacto das surpresas divulgadas no preço do DI Futuro. A padronização dos parâmetros, a realização dos testes de média e as regressões otimizadas pelo método OLS possibilitaram ponderar os indicadores econômicos de acordo com a oscilação que os mesmos causam a este mercado. Por fim, o teste de comparação mostrou que o indicador de surpresa proposto foi mais eficiente nas previsões da reação do mercado do que um indicador que pondere de forma igualitária todos os indicadores macroeconômicos.

FUSÃO E AQUISIÇÃO UMA ANÁLISE ATRAVÉS DO TESTE DE MÉDIA NO SETOR DE AGÊNCIAS DE PUBLICIDADE

A transição do século XX para o século XXI trouxe consigo uma série de mudanças, em especial às organizações, que vivenciaram evoluções de ordem tecnológica impactantes em sua estrutura administrativa e econômica. As agências de publicidade, apesar de terem um enfoque voltado ao aspecto criativo, não deixam de ser organizações, e assim como as demais também vivenciam este ciclo de mudanças, que aparenta ser ininterrupto. A importância do planejamento estratégico e financeiro e do atendimento integrado aos clientes proporcionou às agências novas perspectivas de funcionamento, e nelas enquadram-se as fusões/aquisições. Agências internacionais optaram por participar do mercado publicitário brasileiro através de fusões/aquisições; estas ocorreram com agências de bastante expressão no mercado internacional, mas também com agências menos conhecidas, mas que demonstraram a realização de bons trabalhos no setor. Através deste estudo realizou-se uma análise a respeito do mercado de fusões e aquisições de agências de publicidade, em especial, sob a perspectiva financeira. Através da base de dados lançada no Software SPSS foi aplicado o Teste T. Constatou-se que as agências de publicidade no Brasil entre 1999 a 2009 não apresentaram diferenças de média em relação ao faturamento, independente de terem passado ou não pelo processo de fusão/aquisição. Este crescimento pouco representativo demonstra que as fusões/aquisições tendem a ocorrer por diversos motivos e não se restringem exclusivamente ao aspecto financeiro, a perspectiva de bom atendimento ao cliente, visando o planejamento estratégico no âmbito publicitário, tende a ser um deles.

Characterization of micro-bubble size distribution and flow configuration in DAF contact zone by a non-intrusive image analysis system and tracer tests

This paper aims to investigate the influence of some dissolved air flotation (DAF) process variables (specifically: the hydraulic detention time in the contact zone and the supplied dissolved air concentration) and the pH values, as pretreatment chemical variables, on the micro-bubble size distribution (BSD) in a DAF contact zone. This work was carried out in a pilot plant where bubbles were measured by an appropriate non-intrusive image acquisition system. The results show that the obtained diameter ranges were in agreement with values reported in the literature (10-100mm), quite independently of the investigated conditions. The linear average diameter varied from 20 to 30mm, or equivalently, the Sauter (d(3,2)) diameter varied from 40 to 50mm. In all investigated conditions, D(50) was between 75% and 95%. The BSD might present different profile (with a bimodal curve trend), however, when analyzing the volumetric frequency distribution (in some cases with the appearance of peaks in diameters ranging from 90-100mm). Regarding volumetric frequency analysis, all the investigated parameters can modify the BSD in DAF contact zone after the release point, thus potentially causing changes in DAF kinetics. This finding prompts further research in order to verify the effect of these BSD changes on solid particle removal efficiency by DAF.

Friction coefficient and abrasive wear modes in ball-cratering tests conducted at constant normal force and constant pressure-Preliminary results

The micro-scale abrasive wear test by rotative ball has gained large acceptance in universities and research centers, being widely used in studies on the abrasive wear of materials. Two wear modes are usually observed in this type of test: ""rolling abrasion"" results when the abrasive particles roll on the surface of the tested specimen, while ""grooving abrasion"" is observed when the abrasive particles slide; the type of wear mode has a significant effect on the overall behaviour of a tribological system. Several works on the friction coefficient during abrasive wear tests are available in the literature, but only a few were dedicated to the friction coefficient in micro-abrasive wear tests conducted with rotating ball. Additionally, recent works have identified that results may also be affected by the change in contact pressure that occurs when tests are conducted with constant applied force. Thus, the purpose of this work is to study the relationship between friction coefficient and abrasive wear modes in ball-cratering wear tests conducted at ""constant normal force"" and ""constant pressure"". Micro-scale abrasive wear tests were conducted with a ball of AISI52100 steel and a specimen of AISIH10 tool steel. The abrasive slurry was prepared with black silicon carbide (SiC) particles (average particle size of 3 mu m) and distilled water. Two constant normal force values and two constant pressure values were selected for the tests. The tangential and normal loads were monitored throughout the tests and their ratio was calculated to provide an indication of the friction coefficient. In all cases, optical microscopy analysis of the worn craters revelated only the presence of grooving abrasion. However, a more detailed analysis conducted by SEM has indicated that different degrees of rolling abrasion have also occurred along the grooves. The results have also shown that: (i) for the selected values of constant normal force and constant pressure, the friction coefficient presents, approximately, the same range of values and (ii) loading conditions play an important role on the occurrence of rolling abrasion or grooving abrasion and, consequently, on the average value and scatter of the friction coefficient in micro-abrasive wear tests. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A critical view on biaxial and short-beam uniaxial flexural strength tests applied to resin composites using Weibull, fractographic and finite element analyses

Objective. To evaluate the biaxial and short-beam uniaxial strength tests applied to resin composites based upon their Weibull parameters, fractographic features and stress distribution. Methods. Disk- (15 mm x 1 mm) and beam-shaped specimens (10 mm x 2 mm x 1 mm) of three commercial composites (Concept/Vigodent, CA; Heliomolar/Ivoclar-Vivadent, HE; Z250/3M ESPE, FZ) were prepared. After 48h dry storage at 37 degrees C, disks and beams were submitted to piston-on-three-balls (BI) and three-point bending (UNI) tests, respectively. Data were analyzed by Weibull statistics. Fractured surfaces were observed under stereomicroscope and scanning electron microscope. Maximum principal stress (sigma(1)) distribution was determined by finite element analysis (FEA). Maximum sigma(1-BI) and sigma(1-UNI) were compared to FZ strengths calculated by applying the average failure loads to the analytical equations (sigma(a-BI) and sigma(a-UNI)). Results. For BI, characteristic strengths were: 169.9a (FZ), 122.4b (CA) and 104.8c (HE), and for UNI were: 160.3a (FZ), 98.2b (CA) and 91.6b (HE). Weibull moduli ( m) were similar within the same test. CA and HE presented statistically higher m for BI. Surface pores ( BI) and edge flaws ( UNI) were the most frequent fracture origins. sigma(1-BI) was 14% lower than sigma(a-BI.) sigma(1-UNI) was 43% higher than sigma(a-UNI). Significance. Compared to the short-beam uniaxial test, the biaxial test detected more differences among composites and displayed less data scattering for two of the tested materials. Also, biaxial strength was closer to the material`s strength estimated by FEA. (C) 2009 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

Tests for sex-biased dispersal using bi-parentally inherited genetic markers.

Understanding why dispersal is sex-biased in many taxa is still a major concern in evolutionary ecology. Dispersal tends to be male-biased in mammals and female-biased in birds, but counter-examples exist and little is known about sex bias in other taxa. Obtaining accurate measures of dispersal in the field remains a problem. Here we describe and compare several methods for detecting sex-biased dispersal using bi-parentally inherited, codominant genetic markers. If gene flow is restricted among populations, then the genotype of an individual tells something about its origin. Provided that dispersal occurs at the juvenile stage and that sampling is carried out on adults, genotypes sampled from the dispersing sex should on average be less likely (compared to genotypes from the philopatric sex) in the population in which they were sampled. The dispersing sex should be less genetically structured and should present a larger heterozygote deficit. In this study we use computer simulations and a permutation test on four statistics to investigate the conditions under which sex-biased dispersal can be detected. Two tests emerge as fairly powerful. We present results concerning the optimal sampling strategy (varying number of samples, individuals, loci per individual and level of polymorphism) under different amounts of dispersal for each sex. These tests for biases in dispersal are also appropriate for any attribute (e.g. size, colour, status) suspected to influence the probability of dispersal. A windows program carrying out these tests can be freely downloaded from http://www.unil.ch/izea/softwares/fstat.html

Comparative resilience of clinical perimetric tests to induced levels of intraocular straylight.

PURPOSE: To investigate the effect of intraocular straylight (IOS) induced by white opacity filters (WOF) on threshold measurements for stimuli employed in three perimeters: standard automated perimetry (SAP), pulsar perimetry (PP) and the Moorfields motion displacement test (MDT).¦METHODS: Four healthy young (24-28 years old) observers were tested six times with each perimeter, each time with one of five different WOFs and once without, inducing various levels of IOS (from 10% to 200%). An increase in IOS was measured with a straylight meter. The change in sensitivity from baseline was normalized, allowing comparison of standardized (z) scores (change divided by the SD of normative values) for each instrument.¦RESULTS: SAP and PP thresholds were significantly affected (P < 0.001) by moderate to large increases in IOS (50%-200%). The drop in motion displacement (MD) from baseline with WOF 5, was approximately 5 dB, in both SAP and PP which represents a clinically significant loss; in contrast the change in MD with MDT was on average 1 minute of arc, which is not likely to indicate a clinically significant loss.¦CONCLUSIONS: The Moorfields MDT is more robust to the effects of additional straylight in comparison with SAP or PP.

Prevalence of positive tuberculosis skin tests during 5 years of screening in a Swiss remand prison

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) screening in prisons is recommended, but the appropriate methods remain controversial. Studies evaluating screening in remand prisons arc scarce. METHOD: Between 1997 and 2001, voluntary screening based on the tuberculin skin test (TST) was offered to all prisoners on entry into the largest remand prison in Switzerland. Prisoners with positive results underwent chest X-rays. We analysed this information collected in an anonymous database. RESULTS: A total of 4890 prisoners entered the prison and were eligible for screening; 3779 (77.3%) had TST performed on average 9 days after arrival: 46.9% were positive (induration >= 10 mm). Positive TST rates were similar over the 5 years. Women were more likely to have a negative TST (60.4%) than men (47.7%; P < 0.001, Pearson's chi(2) 16.5). Positive TSTs varied according to the prisoner's country of origin (64% for sub-Saharan Africa, 57% for Eastern Europe, 56% for North Africa, 51% for Asia and 34% for North and West Europe). CONCLUSION: The percentage of TST-positive subjects was high, and most did not receive preventive treatment for latent TB. The usefulness of systematic TST for all prisoners on entry is limited, as diagnosis of TB disease usually remains the priority in prisons. Keywords

Comparison of video and toy reinforcers to motivate infants/toddlers for hearing tests

This paper is a study of the effectiveness between video and toy reinforcer types to motivate infants/toddlers for hearing tests. No significant differences were found between age groups or gender. Toy reinforcers were found to produce on average two more threshold estimates compared to video reinforcers. Variety, color and animation of animals may have contributed to this difference.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

Genetic algorithm inversion of the average 1D crustal structure using local and regional earthquakes

Knowing the best 1D model of the crustal and upper mantle structure is useful not only for routine hypocenter determination, but also for linearized joint inversions of hypocenters and 3D crustal structure, where a good choice of the initial model can be very important. Here, we tested the combination of a simple GA inversion with the widely used HYPO71 program to find the best three-layer model (upper crust, lower crust, and upper mantle) by minimizing the overall P- and S-arrival residuals, using local and regional earthquakes in two areas of the Brazilian shield. Results from the Tocantins Province (Central Brazil) and the southern border of the Sao Francisco craton (SE Brazil) indicated an average crustal thickness of 38 and 43 km, respectively, consistent with previous estimates from receiver functions and seismic refraction lines. The GA + HYPO71 inversion produced correct Vp/Vs ratios (1.73 and 1.71, respectively), as expected from Wadati diagrams. Tests with synthetic data showed that the method is robust for the crustal thickness, Pn velocity, and Vp/Vs ratio when using events with distance up to about 400 km, despite the small number of events available (7 and 22, respectively). The velocities of the upper and lower crusts, however, are less well constrained. Interestingly, in the Tocantins Province, the GA + HYPO71 inversion showed a secondary solution (local minimum) for the average crustal thickness, besides the global minimum solution, which was caused by the existence of two distinct domains in the Central Brazil with very different crustal thicknesses. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contributions to the Theory of Optimal Tests

This paper considers tests which maximize the weighted average power (WAP). The focus is on determining WAP tests subject to an uncountable number of equalities and/or inequalities. The unifying theory allows us to obtain tests with correct size, similar tests, and unbiased tests, among others. A WAP test may be randomized and its characterization is not always possible. We show how to approximate the power of the optimal test by sequences of nonrandomized tests. Two alternative approximations are considered. The rst approach considers a sequence of similar tests for an increasing number of boundary conditions. This discretization allows us to implement the WAP tests in practice. The second method nds a sequence of tests which approximate the WAP test uniformly. This approximation allows us to show that WAP similar tests are admissible. The theoretical framework is readily applicable to several econometric models, including the important class of the curved-exponential family. In this paper, we consider the instrumental variable model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors (HAC-IV) and the nearly integrated regressor model. In both models, we nd WAP similar and (locally) unbiased tests which dominate other available tests.

Optimal two-sided tests for instrumental variables regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors

This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the nite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP) tests with normal errors and a known long-run variance. We introduce two weights which are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the instruments; e.g., changing the order in which the instruments appear. While tests using the MM1 weight can be severely biased, optimal tests based on the MM2 weight are naturally two-sided when errors are homoskedastic. We propose two boundary conditions that yield two-sided tests whether errors are homoskedastic or not. The locally unbiased (LU) condition is related to the power around the null hypothesis and is a weaker requirement than unbiasedness. The strongly unbiased (SU) condition is more restrictive than LU, but the associated WAP tests are easier to implement. Several tests are SU in nite samples or asymptotically, including tests robust to weak IV (such as the Anderson-Rubin, score, conditional quasi-likelihood ratio, and I. Andrews' (2015) PI-CLC tests) and two-sided tests which are optimal when the sample size is large and instruments are strong. We refer to the WAP-SU tests based on our weights as MM1-SU and MM2-SU tests. Dropping the restrictive assumptions of normality and known variance, the theory is shown to remain valid at the cost of asymptotic approximations. The MM2-SU test is optimal under the strong IV asymptotics, and outperforms other existing tests under the weak IV asymptotics.

Invariant tests in an instrumental variables model with unknown data generating process

In this work we focus on tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in a weakly identi ed instrumental variable regressionmodel. We propose a new unbiasedness restriction for weighted average power (WAP) tests introduced by Moreira and Moreira (2013). This new boundary condition is motivated by the score e ciency under strong identi cation. It allows reducing computational costs of WAP tests by replacing the strongly unbiased condition. This latter restriction imposes, under the null hypothesis, the test to be uncorrelated to a given statistic with dimension given by the number of instruments. The new proposed boundary condition only imposes the test to be uncorrelated to a linear combination of the statistic. WAP tests under both restrictions to perform similarly numerically. We apply the di erent tests discussed to an empirical example. Using data from Yogo (2004), we assess the e ect of weak instruments on the estimation of the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution of a CCAPM model.