A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.

Bayesian Estimation for Performance Measures of Two Diagnostic Tests in the Presence of Verification Bias

Sensitivity and specificity are measures that allow us to evaluate the performance of a diagnostic test. In practice, it is common to have situations where a proportion of selected individuals cannot have the real state of the disease verified, since the verification could be an invasive procedure, as occurs with biopsy. This happens, as a special case, in the diagnosis of prostate cancer, or in any other situation related to risks, that is, not practicable, nor ethical, or in situations with high cost. For this case, it is common to use diagnostic tests based only on the information of verified individuals. This procedure can lead to biased results or workup bias. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach to estimate the sensitivity and the specificity for two diagnostic tests considering verified and unverified individuals, a result that generalizes the usual situation based on only one diagnostic test.

Use of Bayesian Methods for Multivariate Bioequivalence Measures

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian analysis for bioequivalence data assuming multivariate pharmacokinetic measures. With the introduction of correlation parameters between the pharmacokinetic measures or between the random effects in the bioequivalence models, we observe a good improvement in the bioequivalence results. These results are of great practical interest since they can yield higher accuracy and reliability for the bioequivalence tests, usually assumed by regulatory offices. An example is introduced to illustrate the proposed methodology by comparing the usual univariate bioequivalence methods with multivariate bioequivalence. We also consider some usual existing discrimination Bayesian methods to choose the best model to be used in bioequivalence studies.

Methods of Estimation in Multiple Linear Regression: Application to Clinical Data

Nesse artigo, tem-se o interesse em avaliar diferentes estratégias de estimação de parâmetros para um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo foram utilizados dados de um ensaio clínico em que o interesse foi verificar se o ensaio mecânico da propriedade de força máxima (EM-FM) está associada com a massa femoral, com o diâmetro femoral e com o grupo experimental de ratas ovariectomizadas da raça Rattus norvegicus albinus, variedade Wistar. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo serão comparadas três metodologias: a metodologia clássica, baseada no método dos mínimos quadrados; a metodologia Bayesiana, baseada no teorema de Bayes; e o método Bootstrap, baseado em processos de reamostragem.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

Doadores de sangue: qualidade de vida e atendimento em hemocentro de Natal / RN

The context of blood donation in Brazil faces problems since the start of its operations in the 1940, in the beginning the biggest obstacle was obtain safe and qualified blood, and then, established criteria for donations, the barrier is the low number of suitable candidates for donation. This suitability is associated with the good health of those who goes to the services of blood banks and the return of the donor is often conditioned by the way care is given and perceived by the user. The quality of life, defined as a perception that a person has of her/his position in the world, can influence the health and emerges as a way to focus on the subjectivity in a context dominated by objective and practical exams; listen to the views about the received services increases the focus on the user and provides feedback to the institution, guiding and planning its future actions. The purpose of this study was to verify the quality of life in blood donors and their perceptions of care in a blood center in Natal/RN. This is a descriptive cross sectional study conducted with blood donors from Dalton Cunha Barbosa blood center. The used protocols were: a structures questionnaire with questions on sociodemographic and services perception data, and SF-36 quality of life instrument. The sociodemographic and SF-36 data ware analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, using the statistical package PASW 18.0; those related to treatment were submitted to thematic content analysis. The results revealed a sample mainly composed by men, married people, who attended high school and had already made previous donations, with the first two groups returning more often for donations. The scores of the SF-36 confirm the certificated of good health of the screens, beind high in all areas and featuring a healthy population; statistically significant differences were denoted between sexes, levels of education and marital status. The speeches about the service were mostly positive and had as main focus acess, agility, technical aspects and subjective feelings. The data regarding the Rio Grande do Norte blood donors profile confirmed some characteristics of the Brazilian ones, those data of the SF-36 were similar to those found in studies with healthy groups and the impressions about the care received show similarities with national and international studies about the attendance at blood banks

Drospirenone and levonorgestrel in combination with either 30 or 20 mcg ethinylestradiol reduce soluble adhesion molecules in Brazilian women; cross-sectional study

Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of three contraceptive pills containing ethinylestradiol (EE) (20 or 30 mcg) in combination with drospirenone (DRSP) and levonorgestrel (LNG) on plasma concentration of adhesion molecules vascular cell adhesion molecule -1 (VCAM-1), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and E-selectin. Study Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 72 participants (18-30 years old) distributed into three groups that used oral contraceptives containing EE 20 or 30 mcg combined with DRSP 3 mg or EE 30 mcg/LNG 150 mcg for at least 6 months. The control group was comprised of nonusers of contraceptives. Soluble VCAM-1, soluble ICAM-1 and soluble E-selectin were evaluated by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results: Compared to the control group, a significant decrease was found in VCAM-1 and ICAM-1 concentrations with use of DRSP/20 EE and LNG/30 EE. Conclusions: DRSP/20 EE and LNG/30 EE induce favorable changes in endothelial function. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

Introduction: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. Methods: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. Results: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirao Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. Conclusions: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Association between particulate matter air pollution and monthly inhalation and nebulization procedures in Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

The study was designed to investigate the impact of air pollution on monthly inhalation/nebulization procedures in Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, from 2004 to 2010. To assess the relationship between the procedures and particulate matter (PM10) a Bayesian Poisson regression model was used, including a random factor that captured extra-Poisson variability between counts. Particulate matter was associated with the monthly number of inhalation/nebulization procedures, but the inclusion of covariates (temperature, precipitation, and season of the year) suggests a possible confounding effect. Although other studies have linked particulate matter to an increasing number of visits due to respiratory morbidity, the results of this study suggest that such associations should be interpreted with caution.

Gauging food and nutritional care quality in hospitals

Background: Food and nutritional care quality must be assessed and scored, so as to improve health institution efficacy. This study aimed to detect and compare actions related to food and nutritional care quality in public and private hospitals. Methods: Investigation of the Hospital Food and Nutrition Service (HFNS) of 37 hospitals by means of structured interviews assessing two quality control corpora, namely nutritional care quality (NCQ) and hospital food service quality (FSQ). HFNS was also evaluated with respect to human resources per hospital bed and per produced meal. Results: Comparison between public and private institutions revealed that there was a statistically significant difference between the number of hospital beds per HFNS staff member (p = 0.02) and per dietitian (p < 0.01). The mean compliance with NCQ criteria in public and private institutions was 51.8% and 41.6%, respectively. The percentage of public and private health institutions in conformity with FSQ criteria was 42.4% and 49.1%, respectively. Most of the actions comprising each corpus, NCQ and FSQ, varied considerably between the two types of institution. NCQ was positively influenced by hospital type (general) and presence of a clinical dietitian. FSQ was affected by institution size: large and medium-sized hospitals were significantly better than small ones. Conclusions: Food and nutritional care in hospital is still incipient, and actions concerning both nutritional care and food service take place on an irregular basis. It is clear that the design of food and nutritional care in hospital indicators is mandatory, and that guidelines for the development of actions as well as qualification and assessment of nutritional care are urgent.

Low Bone Mineral Density in Middle-Aged Breast Cancer Survivors: Prevalence and Associated Factors

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of low bone mineral density (BMD) and associated factors in middle-aged breast cancer survivors (BCS). Patients and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 70 BCS of 45-65 years of age undergoing complete oncology treatment. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with low BMD (osteopenia and osteoporosis taken together as a single group). Results: The mean age of participants was 53.2 +/- 5.9 years. BMD was low at the femoral neck in 28.6% of patients and at the lumbar spine in 45.7%. Body mass index <= 30 kg/m(2) (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.43; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-11.3) and postmenopausal status (OR adjusted 20.42; 95% CI 2.0-201.2) were associated with low BMD at the lumbar spine. Femoral neck measurements, age > 50 years (OR 3.41; 95% CI 1.0-11.6), and time since diagnosis > 50 months (OR adjusted 3.34; 95% CI 1.0-11.3) increased the likelihood of low BMD. Conclusion: These findings show that low BMD is common in middle-aged BCS. Factors were identified that may affect BMD in BCS and should be considered when implementing strategies to minimize bone loss in middle-aged women with breast cancer.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.