THE USE OF THE EARLY WARNING INDICATOR REPORT TO IMPACT NINTH GRADE PROMOTION RATES IN A LARGE URBAN SCHOOL DISTRICT

Abstract The purpose of this study was to examine how four high schools used an Early Warning Indicator Report (EWIR) to improve ninth grade promotion rates. Ninth grade on-time promotion is an early predictor of a student’s likelihood to graduate (Bornsheuer, Polonyi, Andrews, Fore, & Onwuegbuzie, 2011; Leckrone & Griffith, 2006; Roderick, Kelley-Kemple, Johnson, & Beechum, 2014; Zvoch, 2006). The analysis revealed both similarities and differences in the ways that the four schools used the EWIR. The research took place in a large urban school district in the Mid-Atlantic. Sixteen participants from four high schools and the district’s central office voluntarily participated in face-to-face interviews. The researcher utilized a qualitative case study method to examine the implementation of the EWIR system in Wyatt School District. The interview data was transcribed and analyzed, along with district documents, to identify categories in this cross case analysis. Three primary themes emerged from the data: (1) targeted school structures for EWIR implementation, (2) the EWIR identified necessary supports for students, and (3) the central office support for school staff. The findings revealed the various ways that the target schools implemented the EWIR in their buildings and the level of support that they received from the central office that aided them in using the EWIR to improve ninth grade promotion rates. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher provided a number of key recommendations: (1) Districts should provide professional development to schools to ensure that schools have the support they need to implement the EWIR successfully; (2) There should be increased accountability from the central office for schools using the EWIR to identify impactful interventions for ninth graders; and (3) The district needs to assign dedicated central office staff to support the implementation of the EWIR in high schools across the district. As schools continue to face the challenge of improving ninth grade promotion rates, effective use of an Early Warning Indicator Report is recommended to provide school and district staff with data needed to impact overall student performance.

Aplicación de los modelos de mejoramiento de procesos y de tiempos y movimientos en las áreas de urgencias y hospitalización de la Clínica Belén de Fusagasugá para garantizar la prestación del servicio en salud con calidad

En este proyecto a través de la aplicación de modelos de mejoramiento como la gestión de procesos y tiempos y movimientos se solucionaron problemas internos relacionados con la oportunidad, eficacia y eficiencia en una institución prestadora de salud de nivel II de complejidad, siendo aplicables en cualquier organización del sector salud cuya razón de ser sea atender pacientes, dándole a la organización la capacidad de responder adecuadamente a las necesidades del cliente en términos de tiempo sin comprometer la calidad del servicio prestado. Esto se desarrolló en la clínica Belén de Fusagasugá en el periodo comprendido entre septiembre de 2010 y septiembre de 2011, se utilizo la metodología de tiempos y movimientos, determinando los desequilibrios entre la capacidad instalada y el volumen de pacientes que ingresaron , a través de tiempos de atención socialmente aceptados, la capacidad instalada requerida para evitar retrasos en los horarios de alto volumen de consulta los cuales producen insatisfacción del usuario. Lo anterior se aplicó en dos procesos institucionales: urgencias y hospitalización ya que son las unidades funcionales donde los tiempos de espera son mayores a los socialmente aceptados produciendo importantes fallas de calidad, se establecieron indicadores de alerta que permitieron detectar en tiempo real las demoras en la atención, para asi realizar ajustes inmediatos a través de acciones de contingencia que se implementan en la institución, a partir de la desviación de los indicadores de alerta para cada uno de los procedimientos, determinando la existencia de cuellos de botella, gracias a la aplicación de la metodología de gestión de procesos y la que permitieron que el factor volumen de pacientes no afecte los tiempos de prestación de los servicios garantizando la satisfacción de los clientes.

Indicadores de vulnerabilidade aplicados ao Brasil : uma abordagem empírica

Ao longo da história econômica, as instabilidades financeiras sempre despertaram interesses dos pesquisadores, que visavam entender os motivos pelos quais uma economia se tornava vulnerável em determinadas situações. Outros estudiosos procuravam desvendar as razões que levavam às instabilidades e, além do mais, procuravam relacionar as variáveis que tinham maior poder de explicação nos períodos de instabilidade. O presente trabalho focará nas pesquisas dos early warning indicators aplicados à economia brasileira, com o intuito de estimar quais são os indicadores mais aderentes na explicação dos movimentos da economia. Para tal, o trabalho está dividido da seguinte maneira: No primeiro capítulo, será abordada uma introdução do trabalho. Já no segundo capítulo, serão abordados os referenciais teóricos de autores que estudaram os motivos das instabilidades financeiras. Também consta a revisão dos estudos dos early warning indicators e do exchange market pressure aplicado à economia brasileira. Posteriormente, no terceiro capítulo, é feita uma análise econométrica, com os critérios de seleção dos indicadores. Além da justificativa das escolhas dos indicadores, serão estimados modelos dos impactos dos early warning indicators na economia brasileira. Após isto, também foi calculado o exchange market pressure para a economia brasileira. Por fim, concluí-se que, apesar dos modelos de early warning indicators não serem tão aderentes à realidade brasileira, a sua determinação estatística é de grande importância para o acompanhamento das tendências na economia.

Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Site characteristics, sediment geochemistry and pigment concentration of northern Victoria Land lakes

Antarctic ice-free areas contain lakes and ponds that have interesting limnological features and are of wide global significance as early warning indicators of climatic and environmental change. However, most limnological and paleolimnological studies in continental Antarctica are limited to certain regions. There are several ice-free areas in Victoria Land that have not yet been studied well. There is therefore a need to extend limnological studies in space and time to understand how different geological and climatic features affect the composition and biological activity of freshwater communities. With the aim of contributing to a better limnological characterization of Victoria Land, this paper reports data on sedimentary pigments (used to identify the main algal taxa) obtained through a methodology that is more sensitive and selective than that of previous studies. Analyses were extended to 48 water bodies in ice-free areas with differing lithology, latitude, and altitude, and with different morphometry and physical, chemical, and biological characteristics in order to identify environmental factors affecting the distribution and composition of freshwater autotrophic communities. A wider knowledge of lakes in a limnologically important region of Antarctica was obtained. Cyanophyta was found to be the most important algal group, followed by Chlorophyta and Bacillariophyta, whereas latitude and altitude are the main factors affecting pigment distribution.

Feedbacks between vegetation pattern and resource loss dramatically decrease ecosystem resilience and restoration potential in a simple dryland model

Conceptual frameworks of dryland degradation commonly include ecohydrological feedbacks between landscape spatial organization and resource loss, so that decreasing cover and size of vegetation patches result in higher water and soil losses, which lead to further vegetation loss. However, the impacts of these feedbacks on dryland dynamics in response to external stress have barely been tested. Using a spatially-explicit model, we represented feedbacks between vegetation pattern and landscape resource loss by establishing a negative dependence of plant establishment on the connectivity of runoff-source areas (e.g., bare soils). We assessed the impact of various feedback strengths on the response of dryland ecosystems to changing external conditions. In general, for a given external pressure, these connectivity-mediated feedbacks decrease vegetation cover at equilibrium, which indicates a decrease in ecosystem resistance. Along a gradient of gradual increase of environmental pressure (e.g., aridity), the connectivity-mediated feedbacks decrease the amount of pressure required to cause a critical shift to a degraded state (ecosystem resilience). If environmental conditions improve, these feedbacks increase the pressure release needed to achieve the ecosystem recovery (restoration potential). The impact of these feedbacks on dryland response to external stress is markedly non-linear, which relies on the non-linear negative relationship between bare-soil connectivity and vegetation cover. Modelling studies on dryland vegetation dynamics not accounting for the connectivity-mediated feedbacks studied here may overestimate the resistance, resilience and restoration potential of drylands in response to environmental and human pressures. Our results also suggest that changes in vegetation pattern and associated hydrological connectivity may be more informative early-warning indicators of dryland degradation than changes in vegetation cover.

Early warnings of heart rate deterioration

Hospitals can experience difficulty in detecting and responding to early signs of patient deterioration leading to late intensive care referrals, excess mortality and morbidity, and increased hospital costs. Our study aims to explore potential indicators of physiological deterioration by the analysis of vital-signs. The dataset used comprises heart rate (HR) measurements from MIMIC II waveform database, taken from six patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and diagnosed with severe sepsis. Different indicators were considered: 1) generic early warning indicators used in ecosystems analysis (autocorrelation at-1-lag (ACF1), standard deviation (SD), skewness, kurtosis and heteroskedasticity) and 2) entropy analysis (kernel entropy and multi scale entropy). Our preliminary findings suggest that when a critical transition is approaching, the equilibrium state changes what is visible in the ACF1 and SD values, but also by the analysis of the entropy. Entropy allows to characterize the complexity of the time series during the hospital stay and can be used as an indicator of regime shifts in a patient’s condition. One of the main problems is its dependency of the scale used. Our results demonstrate that different entropy scales should be used depending of the level of entropy verified.

Second Quarter 2016: Slowdown for Large Hotels Continues; Small Hotels Have Now Slowed as Well

Our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric continues to show a decline in the price of large hotels, and now also the price of small hotels has eased—even though hotel transaction volume has increased. Although debt and equity financing for hotels remain relatively inexpensive, we are concerned that the total volatility of hotel returns is greater relative to the return volatility for other commercial real estate. If this trend continues, lenders will eventually start to tighten hotel lending standards. Our early warning indicators all continue to suggest that the downward trend in hotel prices should continue into the next quarter. This is report number 19 of the index series.

Third Quarter 2016: Hotels Exhibit Positive Momentum

Our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric showed an uptick in the price of large hotels during the third quarter of 2016, with a continued decline in the price of small hotels. Although debt and equity financing for hotels were still relatively inexpensive during this quarter, we remain concerned that the increasing relative riskiness of hotels compared to other commercial real estate suggests that lenders will eventually start to tighten hotel lending standards if this trend continues. Our early warning indicators continue to suggest an eventual downward trend in large hotel prices. This is report number 20 of the index series.

Warning systems in a computerized nursing process for Intensive Care Units

A hybrid study combining technological production and methodological research aiming to establish associations between the data and information that are part of a Computerized Nursing Process according to the ICNP® Version 1.0, indicators of patient safety and quality of care. Based on the guidelines of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the American Association of Critical Care Nurses for the expansion of warning systems, five warning systems were developed: potential for iatrogenic pneumothorax, potential for care-related infections, potential for suture dehiscence in patients after abdominal or pelvic surgery, potential for loss of vascular access, and potential for endotracheal extubation. The warning systems are a continuous computerized resource of essential situations that promote patient safety and enable the construction of a way to stimulate clinical reasoning and support clinical decision making of nurses in intensive care.

Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit

Droughts tend to evolve slowly and affect large areas simultaneously, which suggests that improved understanding of spatial coherence of drought would enable better mitigation of drought impacts through enhanced monitoring and forecasting strategies. This study employs an up-to-date dataset of over 500 river flow time series from 11 European countries, along with a gridded precipitation dataset, to examine the spatial coherence of drought in Europe using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit. The drought indicators were generated for 24 homogeneous regions and, for selected regions, historical drought characteristics were corroborated with previous work. The spatial coherence of drought characteristics was then examined at a European scale. Historical droughts generally have distinctive signatures in their spatio-temporal development, so there was limited scope for using the evolution of historical events to inform forecasting. Rather, relationships were explored in time series of drought indicators between regions. Correlations were generally low, but multivariate analyses revealed broad continental-scale patterns, which appear to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (in particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic West Russia pattern). A novel methodology for forecasting was developed (and demonstrated with reference to the United Kingdom), which predicts drought from drought i.e. uses spatial coherence of drought to facilitate early warning of drought in a target region, from drought which is developing elsewhere in Europe.Whilst the skill of the methodology is relatively modest at present, this approach presents a potential new avenue for forecasting, which offers significant advantages in that it allows prediction for all seasons, and also shows some potential for forecasting the termination of drought conditions.

Preliminary human factors guidelines for crash avoidance warning devices.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Crash Avoidance Research, Washington, D.C.

Ecological indicators for system-wide assessment of the greater everglades ecosystem restoration program

Developing scientifically credible tools for measuring the success of ecological restoration projects is a difficult and a non-trivial task. Yet, reliable measures of the general health and ecological integrity of ecosystems are critical for assessing the success of restoration programs. The South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force (Task Force), which helps coordinate a multi-billion dollar multi-organizational effort between federal, state, local and tribal governments to restore the Florida Everglades, is using a small set of system-wide ecological indicators to assess the restoration efforts. A team of scientists and managers identified eleven ecological indicators from a field of several hundred through a selection process using 12 criteria to determine their applicability as part of a system-wide suite. The 12 criteria are: (1) is the indicator relevant to the ecosystem? (2) Does it respond to variability at a scale that makes it applicable to the entire system? (3) Is the indicator feasible to implement and is it measureable? (4) Is the indicator sensitive to system drivers and is it predictable? (5) Is the indicator interpretable in a common language? (6) Are there situations where an optimistic trend with regard to an indicator might suggest a pessimistic restoration trend? (7) Are there situations where a pessimistic trend with regard to an indicator may be unrelated to restoration activities? (8) Is the indicator scientifically defensible? (9) Can clear, measureable targets be established for the indicator to allow for assessments of success? (10) Does the indicator have specificity to be able to result in corrective action? (11) What level of ecosystem process or structure does the indicator address? (12) Does the indicator provide early warning signs of ecological change? In addition, a two page stoplight report card was developed to assist in communicating the complex science inherent in ecological indicators in a common language for resource managers, policy makers and the public. The report card employs a universally understood stoplight symbol that uses green to indicate that targets are being met, yellow to indicate that targets have not been met and corrective action may be needed and red to represent that targets are far from being met and corrective action is required. This paper presents the scientific process and the results of the development and selection of the criteria, the indicators and the stoplight report card format and content. The detailed process and results for the individual indicators are presented in companion papers in this special issue of Ecological Indicators.

Early warning systems for cyber defence

Cybercriminals ramp up their efforts with sophisticated techniques while defenders gradually update their typical security measures. Attackers often have a long-term interest in their targets. Due to a number of factors such as scale, architecture and nonproductive traffic however it makes difficult to detect them using typical intrusion detection techniques. Cyber early warning systems (CEWS) aim at alerting such attempts in their nascent stages using preliminary indicators. Design and implementation of such systems involves numerous research challenges such as generic set of indicators, intelligence gathering, uncertainty reasoning and information fusion. This paper discusses such challenges and presents the reader with compelling motivation. A carefully deployed empirical analysis using a real world attack scenario and a real network traffic capture is also presented.