Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops

The formulation of a new process-based crop model, the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops is presented. The model has been designed to operate on spatial scales commensurate with those of global and regional climate models. It aims to simulate the impact of climate on crop yield. Procedures for model parameter determination and optimisation are described, and demonstrated for the prediction of groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) yields across India for the period 1966-1989. Optimal parameters (e.g. extinction coefficient, transpiration efficiency, rate of change of harvest index) were stable over space and time, provided the estimate of the yield technology trend was based on the full 24-year period. The model has two location-specific parameters, the planting date, and the yield gap parameter. The latter varies spatially and is determined by calibration. The optimal value varies slightly when different input data are used. The model was tested using a historical data set on a 2.5degrees x 2.5degrees grid to simulate yields. Three sites are examined in detail-grid cells from Gujarat in the west, Andhra Pradesh towards the south, and Uttar Pradesh in the north. Agreement between observed and modelled yield was variable, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.42 and 0, respectively. Skill was highest where the climate signal was greatest, and correlations were comparable to or greater than correlations with seasonal mean rainfall. Yields from all 35 cells were aggregated to simulate all-India yield. The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated yields was 0.76, and the root mean square error was 8.4% of the mean yield. The model can be easily extended to any annual crop for the investigation of the impacts of climate variability (or change) on crop yield over large areas. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target.

A comunicação empresarial mediada por Intranet no setor de hotelaria: um estudo exploratório em Bauru (SP)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia

Sorghum is the main dryland summer crop in NE Australia and a number of agricultural businesses would benefit from an ability to forecast production likelihood at regional scale. In this study we sought to develop a simple agro-climatic modelling approach for predicting shire (statistical local area) sorghum yield. Actual shire yield data, available for the period 1983-1997 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, were used to train the model. Shire yield was related to a water stress index (SI) that was derived from the agro-climatic model. The model involved a simple fallow and crop water balance that was driven by climate data available at recording stations within each shire. Parameters defining the soil water holding capacity, maximum number of sowings (MXNS) in any year, planting rainfall requirement, and critical period for stress during the crop cycle were optimised as part of the model fitting procedure. Cross-validated correlations (CVR) ranged from 0.5 to 0.9 at shire scale. When aggregated to regional and national scales, 78-84% of the annual variation in sorghum yield was explained. The model was used to examine trends in sorghum productivity and the approach to using it in an operational forecasting system was outlined. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Review on recent trend of solar photovoltaic technology.

Solar photovoltaic technology is one of the renewable technologies, which has a potential to shape a clean, reliable, scalable and affordable electricity system for the future. This article provides a comprehensive review of solar photovoltaic technology in terms of photovoltaic materials efficiency and globally leading countries. Based on past years review and photovoltaic installations in the year 2014, the major five leading countries identified are China, Japan, USA, Germany and UK. These five countries altogether accounted for 80% of photovoltaic installations in 2014. The article also discusses the driving policies, funding and Research and Development activities: to gauge the reasons behind the success of the leading countries. Finally, this article reviews the photovoltaic cost analysis in terms of the photovoltaic module cost, balance of system cost and project cost with the help of listed 98 globally installed projects.

Ambient assisted living technology: comparative perspectives of users and caregivers

Developed societies are currently facing severe demographic changes: the world population is ageing at an unprecedented rate. This demographic trend will be also followed by an increase of people with physical limitations. New challenges are being raised to the traditional health care systems, not only in Portugal, but also in all other European states. There is an urgent need to find solutions that allow extending the time people can live in their preferred environment by increasing their autonomy, self-confidence and mobility. AAL4ALL is a project currently being developed in cooperation with 34 Portuguese interdisciplinary partners, from industry to academia, R&D and social disciplines, which employs a novel conceptual approach through the development of an ecosystem of products and services for Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) associated to a business model and validated through large scale trial. This paper presents a comparative perspective of the needs and attitudes towards technology of the AAL users and caregivers identified in the analysis of a set of three different surveys: a users survey targeted at the Portuguese seniors and pre-seniors; an informal caregivers survey targeted at the family, friends and neighbours who provide care without any financial compensation; and a formal caregivers survey targeted at physicians, nurses,psychologists, social workers, and direct-care workers providing care to elders. The first results indicate that AAL solutions must be affordable,user friendly and have a true perceived benefit to their users.

Environmental sustainability in superior education: case study of Lisbon College of Health Technology

Over the centuries there has been a growing trend of societies and it is possible to verify their economic growth. This growth has provided an increased pressure on natural resources, often over-reaching the boundaries of each country, which has called into question the level of environmental sustainability in different countries. Sustainability is understood as a complex concept involving ecological, social, economic dimensions and temporal urban processes. Therefore, Firmino (2009) suggests that the ecological footprint (EF) allows people to establish dependency relations between human activities and the natural resources required for such activities and for the absorption of waste generated. According to Bergh & Verbruggen (1999) the EF is an objective, impartial and one-dimensional indicator that enables people to assess the sustainability. The Superior Schools have a crucial role in building the vision of a sustainable future as a reality, because in transmitting values and environmental principles to his students, are providing that they, in exercising his professional activity, make decisions weighing the environmental values. This ensures improved quality of life. The present study aims to determine the level of environmental sustainability of the Academic Community of Lisbon College of Health Technology (ESTeSL), by calculating the EF, and describe whether a relation between Footprint and various socio-demographic characteristics of the subjects.

Review of robotic technology for keyhole transcranial stereotactic neurosurgery

The research of stereotactic apparatus to guide surgical devices began in 1908, yet a major part of today's stereotactic neurosurgeries still rely on stereotactic frames developed almost half a century ago. Robots excel at handling spatial information, and are, thus, obvious candidates in the guidance of instrumentation along precisely planned trajectories. In this review, we introduce the concept of stereotaxy and describe a standard stereotactic neurosurgery. Neurosurgeons' expectations and demands regarding the role of robots as assistive tools are also addressed. We list the most successful robotic systems developed specifically for or capable of executing stereotactic neurosurgery. A critical review is presented for each robotic system, emphasizing the differences between them and detailing positive features and drawbacks. An analysis of the listed robotic system features is also undertaken, in the context of robotic application in stereotactic neurosurgery. Finally, we discuss the current perspective, and future directions of a robotic technology in this field. All robotic systems follow a very similar and structured workflow despite the technical differences that set them apart. No system unequivocally stands out as an absolute best. The trend of technological progress is pointing toward the development of miniaturized cost-effective solutions with more intuitive interfaces.

Critical single proximal left arterial descending coronary artery stenosis to mimic chronic myocardial ischemia: a new model induced by minimal invasive technology.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The present report examines a new pig model for progressive induction of high-grade stenosis, for the study of chronic myocardial ischemia and the dynamics of collateral vessel growth. METHODS: Thirty-nine Landrace pigs were instrumented with a novel experimental stent (GVD stent) in the left anterior descending coronary artery. Eight animals underwent transthoracic echocardiography at rest and under low-dose dobutamine. Seven animals were examined by nuclear PET and SPECT analysis. Epi-, mid- and endocardial fibrosis and the numbers of arterial vessels were examined by histology. RESULTS: Functional analysis showed a significant decrease in global left ventricular ejection fraction (24.5 +/- 1.6%) 3 weeks after implantation. There was a trend to increased left ventricular ejection fraction after low-dose dobutamine stress (36.0 +/- 6.6%) and a significant improvement of the impaired regional anterior wall motion. PET and SPECT imaging documented chronic hibernation. Myocardial fibrosis increased significantly in the ischemic area with a gradient from epi- to endocardial. The number of arterial vessels in the ischemic area increased and coronary angiography showed abundant collateral vessels of Rentrop class 1. CONCLUSION: The presented experimental model mimics the clinical situation of chronic myocardial ischemia secondary to 1-vessel coronary disease.

Creating Global Competitive Advantage by Global Product Technology Transfers

Globalization is the trend which is realized in all areas in today’s business world. Pressure for cost reduction, changes in market situation and available scale economies have changed business environment more global than ever. To respond to new situation, companies are establishing global strategies. In this thesis, available global competitive advantages in electrical machine industry are studied in context of gaining them by global technology transfers. In theory part, establishing global strategy and competitive advantage is considered with connection to global sourcing and supply chain management. Additionally, market development in 21st century and its impact on global strategies is studied. In practice, global manufacturing is enabled by technology transfer projects. Smooth and fast project implementation enables faster and more flexible production ramp up. By starting the production available competitive advantages can be realized. In this thesis the present situation of technology transfer projects and the risks and advantages related to global manufacturing are analyzed. The analysis of implemented technology transfer projects indicates that project implementation is in good level. For further development of project execution 10 minor suggestions could be presented with two major ones: higher level standardization and development of product information model to support better global manufacturing.

Improving the usability of extruded wood-plastic composites by using modification technology

Using cellulosic reinforcement to produce plastic composites is a globally growing trend. One of such materials are wood-plastic composites, which are an extensively studied group of materials for which the global industry is looking for new applications. Issues such as bondability, durability and fire resistance still require development to improve the usability of the wood-plastic composite material. Improvement of the usability of wood-plastic composites is studied in this thesis through the effects of using selected modification technology in wood and plastic industry. The applied modification methods are surface by mechanical abrasion and plasma, chemical impregnation of wood flour, and structural modification by the co-extrusion process. The study shows that the properties of WPC can be influenced by the selected modification methods. The selected methods are also found to be able to result as improvement in the properties of the material. The may also affect other than just the targeted properties of the end-product, either in a positive or a negative manner. Therefore modification as performance improvement should be considered as a caseby- case study. Introducing WPC materials for new applications can be done by using modification technology. Structuralmodification can possibly be used to reduce material costs of the modified WPC material.

Apptication of Biofloc Technology (BFI) in Ihe nunery rearing and farming of giant freshwater prawn, Macrobrachillm rosenbergii (de Man)

This thesis Entitled Application of Biofloc technology (BFT) In the Nursery Rearing and Farming of Giant Freshwater Prawn,Macrobrachium Rosenbergii(De Man). Aquaculture, rearing plants and animals under controlled conditions is growing with an annual growth rate of 8.3% in the period 1970-2008 (FAO, 2010). This trend of growth is essential for the supply of protein-rich food for ever increasing world population. But growth and development of aquaculture should be in sustainable manner, preferably without jeopardizing the aquatic environment.In the present study, the application of BFT in the nursery rearing and farming ofgiant freshwater prawn, M. rosenbergii, is attempted. The result of the study is organised into eight chapters. In the first chapter, the subject is adequately introduced. Various types of aquaculture practices followed, development and status of Indian aquaculture, present status of freshwater pravm culture, BF T and its use for the sustainable aquaculture systems, theory of BFT based aquaculture practices, hypothesis, objective and outline of the thesis are described. An extensive review of literature on studies carried out so far on biofloc based aquaculture are given in chapter 2. The third chapter deals with the application of BFT in the primary nursery phase of freshwater prawn. Several workers suggested the need for an intermediate nursery phase in the culture system of freshwater prawn for the successful production. Thirty day experiment was conducted to study the effect of BFT on the water quality, and animal welfare under the various stocking densities. The study concluded that stocking finfishes in biofloc-based monoculture system of freshwater prawns has the potential of increasing total yield. Prawns having a higher commercial value than finfishes besides ensuring economic sustainability. Results showed that prawn yield and survival was better in catla dominated tanks. Based on the results of the study, it is recommended to incorporate 25% rohu and 75% catla in the biofloc-based culture system of giant freshwater prawns. The results of the present study also recommend to stock relatively larger catla for biofloc-based culture system. Fish production was also higher in the 100% catla tank. When catla was added in higher percentages it should ensured that the hiding objects in the culture ponds shall be used in order to reduce the chance of cannibalism among prawns. rohu and catla equally have the ability to harvest the biofloc, catla consumes the planktonic contributes in the floc whereas rohu grazed on the bacterial consortium suspended in the water column. In Chapter 8, recommendations and future research perspectives in the field of biofloc based aquaculture is presented.

Export trend of Indian ornamental fish industry

Inspite of having two hotspots of biodiversity India is way long back in the ornamental fish trade. Large number of species can only foster the needs of the industry. The study aims to (1) to find the various indigenous, exotic ornamental fish species and ornamental shrimp species being exported from India, (2) to provide an overview of the trends in the Indian ornamental fish export industry. 287 indigenous fish species, 92 exotic fish species and 44 ornamental shrimps have been found to get exported from India. The export trend of the industry for the past ten years shows a declining state which is also reflected in the annual and compound annual growth rate. Ornamental fish industry has enormous potential in tropical countries like India. To expand trade, new technologies and policies will have to be developed which will help in attaining a sustainable industry.