Modelos em provisão de sinistros

Part of the work of an insurance company is to keep claims reserves, which is known as the technical reserves, in order to mitigate the risk inherent in their activities and comply with the legal obligations. There are several methods for estimate the claims reserves, deterministics and stochastics methods. One of the most used method is the deterministic method Chain Ladder, of simple application. However, the deterministics methods produce only point estimates, for which the stochastics methods have become increasingly popular because they are capable of producing interval estimates, measuring the variability inherent in the technical reserves. In this study the deterministics methods (Grossing Up, Link Ratio and Chain Ladder) and stochastics (Thomas Mack and Bootstrap associated with Overdispersed Poisson model) will be applied to estimate the claims reserves derived from automobile material damage occurred until December 2012. The data used in this research is based on a real database provided by AXA Portugal. The comparison of results obtained by different methods is hereby presented.

Technological capability development in China's energy service company industry

Technological capability (TC) plays a strategic role in the competitive advantage of not only individual corporate entities but also entire industries. This paper investigates the crucial factors that affect technological capability development by Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) in China. It identifies how differently sized ESCOs make progress in developing TCs. Through looking at the successes achieved by developed countries in the field of energy conservation, ESCOs are able to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions and are deemed to provide an effective means of conserving energy in China. Existing literature indicates that limited TC levels of are one of the crucial barriers facing Chinese ESCOs. Through investigating three different sizes of Chinese ESCO - small, medium-sized and large - this paper provides a framework to present the idea that Chinese ESCOs' TC development is affected by four key internal and external capabilities: management capability, investment capability, innovation capability and linkage capability. Through comparative analysis, the paper establishes that small and medium-sized private ESCOs are mainly affected by investment and linkage capabilities. Large state-owned ESCOs are mainly affected by innovation and management capability. In addition, all three types of ESCO exhibit a strong desire to develop their technological capability, but small and medium-sized ESCOs exhibit a stronger desire to conduct research and development (R&D) than large ESCOs, whilst large ESCOs prefer to increase their technical reserves through acquisition. This paper identifies factors that affect Chinese ESCOs' TC, but it does intend to address the problem of how to reduce the negative effects of limited TC or the question of how to improve the TC development of Chinese ESCOs effectively. This paper contributes to the field of TC development in the ESCO industry.

Support for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserves System (NERRS), Volume II: Assessment of Ecological Condition and Stressor Impacts in Subtidal Waters of the North Carolina NERRS

A study was conducted to assess the status of ecological condition and potential human-health risks in subtidal estuarine waters throughout the North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) (Currituck Sound, Rachel Carson, Masonboro Island, and Zeke’s Island). Field work was conducted in September 2006 and incorporated multiple indicators of ecosystem condition including measures of water quality (dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients and chlorophyll, suspended solids), sediment quality (granulometry, organic matter content, chemical contaminant concentrations), biological condition (diversity and abundances of benthic fauna, fish contaminant levels and pathologies), and human dimensions (fish-tissue contaminant levels relative to human-health consumption limits, various aesthetic properties). A probabilistic sampling design permitted statistical estimation of the spatial extent of degraded versus non-degraded condition across these estuaries relative to specified threshold levels of the various indicators (where possible). With some exceptions, the status of these reserves appeared to be in relatively good to fair ecological condition overall, with the majority of the area (about 54%) having various water quality, sediment quality, and biological (benthic) condition indicators rated in the healthy to intermediate range of corresponding guideline thresholds. Only three stations, representing 10.5% of the area, had one or more of these indicators rated as poor/degraded in all three categories. While such a conclusion is encouraging from a coastal management perspective, it should be viewed with some caution. For example, although co-occurrences of adverse biological and abiotic environmental conditions were limited, at least one indicator of ecological condition rated in the poor/degraded range was observed over a broader area (35.5%) represented by 11 of the 30 stations sampled. In addition, the fish-tissue contaminant data were not included in these overall spatial estimates; however, the majority of samples (77% of fish that were analyzed, from 79%, of stations where fish were caught) contained inorganic arsenic above the consumption limits for human cancer risks, though most likely derived from natural sources. Similarly, aesthetic indicators are not reflected in these spatial estimates of ecological condition, though there was evidence of noxious odors in sediments at many of the stations. Such symptoms reflect a growing realization that North Carolina estuaries are under multiple pressures from a variety of natural and human influences. These data also suggest that, while the current status of overall ecological condition appears to be good to fair, long-term monitoring is warranted to track potential changes in the future. This study establishes an important baseline of overall ecological condition within NC NERRS that can be used to evaluate any such future changes and to trigger appropriate management actions in this rapidly evolving coastal environment. (PDF contains 76 pages)

Support for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserves System (NERRS), Volume I: The Impacts of Coastal Development on the Ecology and Human Well-being of Tidal Creek Ecosystems of the US Southeast

A study was conducted, in association with the Sapelo Island and North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs), to evaluate the impacts of coastal development on sentinel habitats (e.g., tidal creek ecosystems), including potential impacts to human health and well-being. Uplands associated with southeastern tidal creeks and the salt marshes they drain are popular locations for building homes, resorts, and recreational facilities because of the high quality of life and mild climate associated with these environments. Tidal creeks form part of the estuarine ecosystem characterized by high biological productivity, great ecological value, complex environmental gradients, and numerous interconnected processes. This research combined a watershed-level study integrating ecological, public health and human dimension attributes with watershed-level land use data. The approach used for this research was based upon a comparative watershed and ecosystem approach that sampled tidal creek networks draining developed watersheds (e.g., suburban, urban, and industrial) as well as undeveloped sites. The primary objective of this work was to clearly define the relationships between coastal development with its concomitant land use changes and non-point source pollution loading and the ecological and human health and well-being status of tidal creek ecosystems. Nineteen tidal creek systems, located along the southeastern United States coast from southern North Carolina to southern Georgia, were sampled during summer (June-August), 2005 and 2006. Within each system, creeks were divided into two primary segments based upon tidal zoning: intertidal (i.e., shallow, narrow headwater sections) and subtidal (i.e., deeper and wider sections), and watersheds were delineated for each segment. In total, we report findings on 24 intertidal and 19 subtidal creeks. Indicators sampled throughout each creek included water quality (e.g., dissolved oxygen concentration, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll-a levels), sediment quality (e.g., characteristics, contaminants levels including emerging contaminants), pathogen and viral indicators, and abundance and genetic responses of biological resources (e.g., macrobenthic and nektonic communities, shellfish tissue contaminants, oyster microarray responses). For many indicators, the intertidally-dominated or headwater portions of tidal creeks were found to respond differently than the subtidally-dominated or larger and deeper portions of tidal creeks. Study results indicate that the integrity and productivity of headwater tidal creeks were impaired by land use changes and associated non-point source pollution, suggesting these habitats are valuable early warning sentinels of ensuing ecological impacts and potential public health threats. For these headwater creeks, this research has assisted the validation of a previously developed conceptual model for the southeastern US region. This conceptual model identified adverse changes that generally occurred in the physical and chemical environment (e.g., water quality indicators such as indicator bacteria for sewage pollution or sediment chemical contamination) when impervious cover levels in the watershed reach 10-20%. Ecological characteristics responded and were generally impaired when impervious cover levels exceed 20-30%. Estimates of impervious cover levels defining where human uses are impaired are currently being determined, but it appears that shellfish bed closures and the flooding vulnerability of headwater regions become a concern when impervious cover values exceed 10-30%. This information can be used to forecast the impacts of changing land use patterns on tidal creek environmental quality as well as associated human health and well-being. In addition, this study applied tools and technologies that are adaptable, transferable, and repeatable among the high quality NERRS sites as comparable reference entities to other nearby developed coastal watersheds. The findings herein will be of value in addressing local, regional and national needs for understanding multiple stressor (anthropogenic and human impacts) effects upon estuarine ecosystems and response trends in ecosystem condition with changing coastal impacts (i.e., development, climate change). (PDF contaions 88 pages)

Contaminant trends in US National Estuarine Research Reserves

Inputs of toxic chemicals provide one of the major types of anthropogenic stress threatening our Nation's coastal and estuarine waters. To assess this threat, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA’s) National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program Mussel Watch Project monitors the concentrations of more than 70 toxic chemicals in sediments and on the whole soft-parts of mussels and oysters at over 300 sites around the U.S. Twenty of the 25 designated areas that comprise NOAA's National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) have one or more Mussel Watch monitoring sites. Trace elements and organic contaminants were quantified including As, Ag, Cd, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Zn, ΣPCBs, ΣPAHs, DDT and its metabolites, and butyltins. The Mussel Watch sites located in or near the 20 Reserves provide for both status and trends. Generally the Reserves have trace element and organic contaminant concentrations that are at or below the median concentration determined for all NS&T Mussel Watch monitoring data. Trends were derived using the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient. It was possible to determine if trends exist for sites at which six or more years of data are available. Generally no trends were found for trace elements but when trends were found they were usually decreasing. The same general conclusion holds for organic contaminants but more decreasing trends were found than for trace elements. The greatest number of decreasing trends were found for tributyltin and its metabolites. (PDF contains 203 pages)

An assessment of chemical contaminants detected in passive water samplers deployed in the St. Thomas East End Reserves (STEER)

This report is the second in a series from a project to assess land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and effects in the St. Thomas East End Reserves (STEER) in St. Thomas, USVI, and is the result of a collaborative effort between NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, the USVI Department of Planning and Natural Resources, the University of the Virgin Islands, and The Nature Conservancy. Passive water samplers (POCIS) were deployed in the STEER in February 2012. Developed by the US Geological Survey (USGS) as a tool to detect the presence of water soluble contaminants in the environment, POCIS samplers were deployed in the STEER at five locations. In addition to the February 2012 deployment, the results from an earlier POCIS deployment in May 2010 in Turpentine Gut, a perennial freshwater stream which drains to the STEER, are also reported. A total of 26 stormwater contaminants were detected at least once during the February 2012 deployment in the STEER. Detections were high enough to estimate ambient water concentrations for nine contaminants using USGS sampling rate values. From the May 2010 deployment in Turpentine Gut, 31 stormwater contaminants were detected, and ambient water concentrations could be estimated for 17 compounds. Ambient water concentrations were estimated for a number of contaminants including the detergent/surfactant metabolite 4-tert-octylphenol, phthalate ester plasticizers DEHP and DEP, bromoform, personal care products including menthol, indole, n,n-diethyltoluamide (DEET), along with the animal/plant sterol cholesterol, and the plant sterol beta-sitosterol. Only DEHP appeared to have exceeded a water quality guideline for the protection of aquatic organisms.

An assessment of chemical contaminants, toxicity and benthic infauna in sediments from the St. Thomas East End Reserves (STEER)

This report contains a chemical and biological characterization of sediments from the St. Thomas East End Reserves (STEER) in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). The STEER Management Plan (published in 2011) identified chemical contaminants and habitat loss as high or very high threats and called for a characterization of chemical contaminants as well as an assessment of their effects on natural resources. The baseline information contained in this report on chemical contaminants, toxicity and benthic infaunal community composition can be used to assess current conditions, as well as the efficacy of future restoration activities. In this phase of the project, 185 chemical contaminants, including a number of organic (e.g., hydrocarbons and pesticides) and inorganic (e.g., metals) compounds, were analyzed from 24 sites in the STEER. Sediments were also analyzed using a series of toxicity bioassays, including amphipod mortality, sea urchin fertilization impairment, and the cytochrome P450 Human Reporter Gene System (HRGS), along with a characterization of the benthic infaunal community. Higher levels of chemical contaminants were found in Mangrove Lagoon and Benner Bay in the western portion of the study area than in the eastern area. The concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane), chlordane, zinc, copper, lead and mercury were above a NOAA sediment quality guideline at one or more sites, indicating impacts may be present in more sensitive species or life stages in the benthic environment. Copper at one site in Benner Bay, however, was above a NOAA guideline indicating that effects on benthic organisms were likely. The antifoulant boat hull ingredient tributyltin, or TBT, was found at the third highest concentration in the history of NOAA’s National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program, which monitors the Nation’s coastal and estuarine waters for chemical contaminants and bioeffects. Unfortunately, there do not appear to be any established sediment quality guidelines for TBT. Results of the bioassays indicated significant sediment toxicity in Mangrove Lagoon and Benner Bay using multiple tests. The benthic infaunal communities in Mangrove Lagoon and Benner Bay appeared severely diminished.

An integrated biogeographic assessment of reef fish populations and fisheries in Dry Tortugas: Effects of No-take Reserves

The Tortugas Integrated Biogeographic Assessment presents a unique analysis of demographic changes in living resource populations, as well as societal and socioeconomic benefits that resulted from the Tortugas Ecological Reserves during the first five years after their implementation. In 2001, state and federal agencies established two no-take reserves within the region as part of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. The northern reserve (Tortugas Ecological Reserve North) was established adjacent to the Dry Tortugas National Park, which was first declared a national monument in 1935. The reserves were designed to protect a healthy coral reef ecosystem that supports diverse faunal assemblages and fisheries, serves as important spawning grounds for groupers and snappers, and includes essential feeding and breeding habitats for seabirds. The unique ecological qualities of the Tortugas region were recognized as far back as 1850, and it remains an important ecosystem and research area today. The two main goals of the Tortugas Ecological Reserve Integrated Ecological Assessment were: 1) to determine if demographic changes such as increases in abundance, average size and spawning potential of exploited populations occurred in the Tortugas region after reserve implementation; and 2) whether short-term economic losses occurred to fishers displaced by the reserve. This project utilized a biogeographic approach in which information on the physical features (i.e., habitat) and oceanographic patterns were first used to determine the spatial distribution of selected fish populations within and outside the Tortugas Ecological Reserve. Before-and-after reserve implementation comparisons of selected fish populations were then conducted to determine if demographic changes occurred in reef fish assemblages. These comparisons were done for the Tortugas region and also for a subset of available habitats within the Tortugas Ecological Reserve Study Area. Social and economic impacts of the reserves were determined through: 1) analyses of commercial landings and revenues from fishers, operating in the Tortugas region before and after reserve implementation and 2) surveys of recreational tour guides. Analyses of the commercial landings and revenues excluded areas inside Dry Tortugas National Park because commercial fishing has been prohibited within park boundaries since 1992. Key findings and outcomes of this integrated ecological assessment are organized by chapter and listed below.

Outlook for Oil and Gas in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 18/October 2012

The aim of this report is to elaborate the MEDPRO Energy Reference Scenario for oil and gas supply and demand up to 2030 for southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. The report gives an assessment of • oil and gas reserves by country; • oil and gas production, domestic demand and export scenarios by country; and • the existing and planned infrastructure for oil and gas exports. Finally, the report presents some insights on the future role of the Mediterranean as an oil and gas transit region.

Directory of biosphere reserves in the United States /

Mode of access: Internet.

Bridging technical and HCI research : creating usable ubiquitous computing

This paper describes methods used to support collaboration and communication between practitioners, designers and engineers when designing ubiquitous computing systems. We tested methods such as “Wizard of Oz” and design games in a real domain, the dental surgery, in an attempt to create a system that is: affordable; minimally disruptive of the natural flow of work; and improves human-computer interaction. In doing so we found that such activities allowed the practitioners to be on a ‘level playing ground’ with designers and engineers. The findings we present suggest that dentists are willing to engage in detailed exploration and constructive critique of technical design possibilities if the design ideas and prototypes are presented in the context of their work practice and are of a resolution and relevance that allow them to jointly explore and question with the design time. This paper is an extension of a short paper submitted to the Participatory Design Conference, 2004.

Technical support and professional development : using remote desktops to address bottlenecks in music technology

This paper presents research findings about the use of remote desktop applications to teach music sequencing software. It highlights the successes, shortcomings and interactive issues encountered during a pilot project with a theoretical focus on a specific interactive bottleneck. The paper proposes a new delivery and partnership model to widen this bottleneck, which currently hinders interactions between the technical support, education and professional development communities in music technology.