Efecto de la eliminación de hospederos sobre la dinámica poblacional de gusano rosado del algodonero Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders) lepidoptera, Gelechidae en plan de erradicación

El presente trabajo es un análisis descriptivo preliminar, sobre las actividades llevadas acabo en el plan de erradicación y contención del gusano rosado del algodonero Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders), el cual se llevó a cabo en la “Isla del Maiz” (Corn lsland). localizada en el Océano Atlántico, en la Región Autónoma Atlantíco Sur (RAAS) de la República de Nicaragua. El objetivo principal de este trabajo consistió en determinar el efecto de la eliminación de los hospederos principales del "Gusano Rosado”, que son : Algodón Silvestre (Gossypium barbadense), Higuerilla (Ricinus communis) y algunos hospederos alternos que interactúan sobra su biologia y dinámica Poblacional. Se ubicaron trampas DELTAS de PRISMA con feromonas, con el objetivo de capturar adultos machos de Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders). Esta plaga es facilmente confundible con el falso Gusano Rosado Colombiano (Sacacioces piralis). Gusano rosado, es una plaga cuarentenada en Nicaragua y restos de pa��ses del área Centro Americana; este insecto vive en malvaceas silvestres y cultivadas, atacando órganos reproductivos (Botones florales, flores, bellotas y motas), provoca la destrucción de semillas y las fibras, a la vez que sus da��os y residuos fecales pueden ser fuente de infestación de hongos y bacterias fitopatogenas. Se realizaron inspeccionas de manera visual en diferentes áreas de la Isla para ubicar los focos de los hospederos ya determinados y posteriormente eliminarlos de forma mecanico-quimica, aplicándole al herbicida TORDON -101 (Pichloran 2, 4•D) a los tocones cortados y en ocasiones arrancar las plantas de forma manual desde sus raices, esto en dependencia de las dimensiones del tallo y tama��o de la planta en la medida que fuese posible arrancarlo del suelo. De la eliminación mecanico-quimica efectuado sobre los hospederos alimenticios de la plaga ya determinados (Algodón Silvestre e Higuerilla), se puede promediar un 95% de plantas huespedes eliminadas, para ambas especies, durante todo el periodo que duro nuestro trabajo. De igual forma se instalaron un total de 100 trampas DELTAS distribuidas en 5 rutas procurando cubrir el 95 % del territorio de la Isla del Maiz. Producto del monitoreo y el alto indice de capturas de adultos machos efecto de la actividad confucionista de la feromona sexual ubicada en cada una de las trampas, utilizado como método de control y erradicación de la plaga, nos indicaron que la población de adultos de gusano rosado presentaba una reducción considerable; lo cual demuestra que la eliminación de los hospederos afecta eficazmente la dinámica poblacional de esta plaga.

Early development of Costaria costata (C. Agardh) Saunders and cultivation trials

Costaria costata (C. Agardh) Saunders is one of common kelps distributed in many coastal areas worldwide; however, in China, no reports have been made on cultivation of the genus. To investigate potential cultivation of the species in the northern part of China, trials on isolation and preservation of the gametophytes were conducted using C. costata from Korea; growth and development of the gametophytes were observed. We showed that at 10 +/- 1A degrees C, 60 mu mol m(-2)s(-1) and 12:12 h (L:D), freshly released zoospores settled down within 1 hour, and then developed into the primary cell during the following 2 days. After a vegetative growth phase lasting 6-8 days, female gametophytes became 3-4 times larger in diameter than that of the primary cell, but still remained at a unicellular stage, while male gametophytes divided into 4-10 cells with only a slight change in size. Fertilization occurred within 10 days after the zoospores were released from the sporangia, and the apical and basal tissues of the juvenile sporophyte divided and differentiated into the blade and stipe. Temperature and irradiance influenced gametophytic vegetative growth and developmental patterns. Generally, low irradiance (15 mu mol m(-2)s(-1) and 30 mu mol m(-2)s(-1)) was unfavorable to the induction of fertility, but it enhanced female gametophyte division. The optimal conditions for vegetative growth were 15A degrees C and 30 mu mol m(-2)s(-1). After transplantation of the juvenile seedlings and after eight months cultivation, the harvested mature blade reached 194 cm in length and 32.7 cm in width. Our study proves that it is feasible to implement propagation and large scale cultivation of C. costata in northern China.

Un Bywyd o Blith Nifer: Cofiant Saunders Lewis, 1892-1985

Chapman, T. (2006). Un Bywyd o Blith Nifer: Cofiant Saunders Lewis, 1892-1985. Llandysul: Gwasg Gomer.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t regression models: Full Bayesian analysis

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian approach for log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t regression models under right-censored survival data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the considered model. In order to attenuate the influence of the outlying observations on the parameter estimates, we present in this paper Birnbaum-Saunders models in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. Also, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given and case deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The developed procedures are illustrated with a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random number generators for the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

The generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution pertains to a class of lifetime models including both lighter and heavier tailed distributions. This model adapts well to lifetime data, even when outliers exist, and has other good theoretical properties and application perspectives. However, statistical inference tools may not exist in closed form for this model. Hence, simulation and numerical studies are needed, which require a random number generator. Three different ways to generate observations from this model are considered here. These generators are compared by utilizing a goodness-of-fit procedure as well as their effectiveness in predicting the true parameter values by using Monte Carlo simulations. This goodness-of-fit procedure may also be used as an estimation method. The quality of this estimation method is studied here. Finally, through a real data set, the generalized and classical Birnbaum-Saunders models are compared by using this estimation method.

Size and power properties of some tests in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model

The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model times to failure for materials subject to fatigue and for modeling lifetime data. In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions, up to order n(-1/2) and under a sequence of Pitman alternatives, for the non-null distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation is presented in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests. We also present two empirical applications. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Signed likelihood ratio tests in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is becoming increasingly popular in lifetime analyses and reliability studies. In this model, the signed likelihood ratio statistic provides the basis for testing inference and construction of confidence limits for a single parameter of interest. We focus on the small sample case, where the standard normal distribution gives a poor approximation to the true distribution of the statistic. We derive three adjusted signed likelihood ratio statistics that lead to very accurate inference even for very small samples. Two empirical applications are presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epsilon Birnbaum-Saunders distribution family: properties and inference

In this paper we introduce a new extension for the Birnbaum-Saunder distribution based on the family of the epsilon-skew-symmetric distributions studied in Arellano-Valle et al. (J Stat Plan Inference 128(2):427-443, 2005). The extension allows generating Birnbaun-Saunders type distributions able to deal with extreme or outlying observations (Dupuis and Mills, IEEE Trans Reliab 47:88-95, 1998). Basic properties such as moments and Fisher information matrix are also studied. Results of a real data application are reported illustrating good fitting properties of the proposed model.

Small-Sample Corrections for Score Tests in Birnbaum-Saunders Regressions

In this article, we deal with the issue of performing accurate small-sample inference in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model, which can be useful for modeling lifetime or reliability data. We derive a Bartlett-type correction for the score test and numerically compare the corrected test with the usual score test and some other competitors.

Improved likelihood inference in Birnbaum-Saunders regressions

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is commonly used in reliability studies. We address the issue of performing inference in this class of models when the number of observations is small. Our simulation results suggest that the likelihood ratio test tends to be liberal when the sample size is small. We obtain a correction factor which reduces the size distortion of the test. Also, we consider a parametric bootstrap scheme to obtain improved critical values and improved p-values for the likelihood ratio test. The numerical results show that the modified tests are more reliable in finite samples than the usual likelihood ratio test. We also present an empirical application. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An R implementation for generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions

The Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) model is a positively skewed statistical distribution that has received great attention in recent decades. A generalized version of this model was derived based on symmetrical distributions in the real line named the generalized BS (GBS) distribution. The R package named gbs was developed to analyze data from GBS models. This package contains probabilistic and reliability indicators and random number generators from GBS distributions. Parameter estimates for censored and uncensored data can also be obtained by means of likelihood methods from the gbs package. Goodness-of-fit and diagnostic methods were also implemented in this package in order to check the suitability of the GBS models. in this article, the capabilities and features of the gbs package are illustrated by using simulated and real data sets. Shape and reliability analyses for GBS models are presented. A simulation study for evaluating the quality and sensitivity of the estimation method developed in the package is provided and discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing hypotheses in the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under type-II censored samples

The two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used successfully to model fatigue failure times. Although censoring is typical in reliability and survival studies, little work has been published on the analysis of censored data for this distribution. In this paper, we address the issue of performing testing inference on the two parameters of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under type-II right censored samples. The likelihood ratio statistic and a recently proposed statistic, the gradient statistic, provide a convenient framework for statistical inference in such a case, since they do not require to obtain, estimate or invert an information matrix, which is an advantage in problems involving censored data. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out in order to investigate and compare the finite sample performance of the likelihood ratio and the gradient tests. Our numerical results show evidence that the gradient test should be preferred. Further, we also consider the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under type-II right censored samples and present some Monte Carlo simulations for testing the parameters in this class of models using the likelihood ratio and gradient tests. Three empirical applications are presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An extension of the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

In this paper we present an extension of the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution family introduced in [Diaz-Garcia, J.A., Leiva-Sanchez, V., 2005. A new family of life distributions based on the contoured elliptically distributions. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 128 (2), 445-457] with a view to make it even more flexible in terms of its kurtosis coefficient. Properties involving moments and asymmetry and kurtosis indexes are studied for some special members of this family such as the slash Birnbaum-Saunders and slash-t Birnbaum-Saunders. Simulation studies for some particular cases and a real data analysis are also reported, illustrating the usefulness of the extension considered. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions applied to air pollutant concentration

The generalized Birnbaum-Saunders (GBS) distribution is a new class of positively skewed models with lighter and heavier tails than the traditional Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) distribution, which is largely applied to study lifetimes. However, the theoretical argument and the interesting properties of the GBS model have made its application possible beyond the lifetime analysis. The aim of this paper is to present the GBS distribution as a useful model for describing pollution data and deriving its positive and negative moments. Based on these moments, we develop estimation and goodness-of-fit methods. Also, some properties of the proposed estimators useful for developing asymptotic inference are presented. Finally, an application with real data from Environmental Sciences is given to illustrate the methodology developed. This example shows that the empirical fit of the GBS distribution to the data is very good. Thus, the GBS model is appropriate for describing air pollutant concentration data, which produces better results than the lognormal model when the administrative target is determined for abating air pollution. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.