Fuzzy-logic-based health monitoring and residual-life prediction for composite helicopter rotor

A health-monitoring and life-estimation strategy for composite rotor blades is developed in this work. The cross-sectional stiffness reduction obtained by physics-based models is expressed as a function of the life of the structure using a recent phenomenological damage model. This stiffness reduction is further used to study the behavior of measurable system parameters such as blade deflections, loads, and strains of a composite rotor blade in static analysis and forward flight. The simulated measurements are obtained using an aeroelastic analysis of the composite rotor blade based on the finite element in space and time with physics-based damage modes that are then linked to the life consumption of the blade. The model-based measurements are contaminated with noise to simulate real data. Genetic fuzzy systems are developed for global online prediction of physical damage and life consumption using displacement- and force-based measurement deviations between damaged and undamaged conditions. Furthermore, local online prediction of physical damage and life consumption is done using strains measured along the blade length. It is observed that the life consumption in the matrix-cracking zone is about 12-15% and life consumption in debonding/delamination zone is about 45-55% of the total life of the blade. It is also observed that the success rate of the genetic fuzzy systems depends upon the number of measurements, type of measurements and training, and the testing noise level. The genetic fuzzy systems work quite well with noisy data and are recommended for online structural health monitoring of composite helicopter rotor blades.

Identification of models using failure rate and mean residual life of doubly truncated random variables

In this paper, we study the relationship between the failure rate and the mean residual life of doubly truncated random variables. Accordingly, we develop characterizations for exponential, Pareto 11 and beta distributions. Further, we generalize the identities for fire Pearson and the exponential family of distributions given respectively in Nair and Sankaran (1991) and Consul (1995). Applications of these measures in file context of lengthbiased models are also explored

Plastic films for polytunnels can prolong the effective residual life of cypermethrin to over 6 months

Synthetic pyrethroid insecticides are degraded almost entirely by ultraviolet (UV)-catalysed oxidation. A bioassay using the beetle Tribolium confusum duVal caged on bandages soaked in 0.04% a.i. cypermethrin showed large differences in residual insecticide-life under three plastic films available for cladding polytunnels. Cypermethrin exposed to a UV film that transmitted 70% of UVB and 80% of UVA killed all beetles for 8 weeks, compared to only 3 weeks for cypermethrin exposed in a clear plastic envelope. Cypermethrin under a UV-absorbing film that reduced the transmission of UVB and UVA to 14% and 50%, respectively, gave a complete kill for 17 weeks. Reducing the transmission of UVB to virtually zero, and that of UVA to only 3%, using a UV-opaque film prolonged the effective life of the cypermethrin residue to 26 weeks, and some beetles were still killed for a further 11 weeks. Even after this time, beetles exposed to cypermethrin from the UV-opaque treatment were still affected by the insecticide, and only showed near-normal mobility after 24 months of pesticide exposure to the UV-opaque film. These results have implications for the recommended intervals between cypermethrin treatment and crop harvest, and on the time of introduction of insect-based biological control agents, when UV-opaque films are used in commercial horticulture.

A simple relation between the Leimkuhler curve and the mean residual life

In this paper, a simple relation between the Leimkuhler curve and the mean residual life is established. The result is illustrated with several models commonly used in informetrics, such as exponential, Pareto and lognormal. Finally, relationships with some other reliability concepts are also presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between mean residual life (MRL) and failure rate functions for continuous and discrete lifetime distributions

The purpose of this study was to correct some mistakes in the literature and derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the MRL to follow the roller-coaster pattern of the corresponding failure rate function. It was also desired to find the conditions under which the discrete failure rate function has an upside-down bathtub shape if corresponding MRL function has a bathtub shape. The study showed that if discrete MRL has a bathtub shape, then under some conditions the corresponding failure rate function has an upside-down bathtub shape. Also the study corrected some mistakes in proofs of Tang, Lu and Chew (1999) and established a necessary and sufficient condition for the MRL to follow the roller-coaster pattern of the corresponding failure rate function. Similarly, some mistakes in Gupta and Gupta (2000) are corrected, with the ensuing results being expanded and proved thoroughly to establish the relationship between the crossing points of the failure rate and associated MRL functions. The new results derived in this study will be useful to model various lifetime data that occur in environmental studies, medical research, electronics engineering, and in many other areas of science and technology.

Quantifying the residual creep life of polyester mooring ropes

This paper assesses the ARELIS (Assured Residual Life Span) method for estimating residual creep life of polyester rope used in deepwater mooring lines. A statistical model has been developed to quantify the uncertainties in the method, such as the scatter in creep rupture test data and load sharing between sub-ropes. This model can be used to determine the required test load, duration and number of ARELIS tests, in order to guarantee a minimum creep life for a mooring line at its service load. Creep rupture tests have been performed to provide input for the statistical model.

Re-life of buildings - decision support tools for maximising project efficiency

This paper describes the process adopted in developing an integrated decision support framework for planning of office building refurbishment projects, with specific emphasize on optimising rentable floor space, structural strengthening, residual life and sustainability. Expert opinion on the issues to be considered in a tool is being captured through the DELPHI process, which is currently ongoing. The methodology for development of the integrated tool will be validated through decisions taken during a case study project: refurbishment of CH1 building of Melbourne City Council, which will be followed through to completion by the research team. Current status of the CH1 planning will be presented in the context of the research project.

Characterization of Probability Distributions Using the Residual Entropy Function

The present study on the characterization of probability distributions using the residual entropy function. The concept of entropy is extensively used in literature as a quantitative measure of uncertainty associated with a random phenomenon. The commonly used life time models in reliability Theory are exponential distribution, Pareto distribution, Beta distribution, Weibull distribution and gamma distribution. Several characterization theorems are obtained for the above models using reliability concepts such as failure rate, mean residual life function, vitality function, variance residual life function etc. Most of the works on characterization of distributions in the reliability context centers around the failure rate or the residual life function. The important aspect of interest in the study of entropy is that of locating distributions for which the shannon’s entropy is maximum subject to certain restrictions on the underlying random variable. The geometric vitality function and examine its properties. It is established that the geometric vitality function determines the distribution uniquely. The problem of averaging the residual entropy function is examined, and also the truncated form version of entropies of higher order are defined. In this study it is established that the residual entropy function determines the distribution uniquely and that the constancy of the same is characteristics to the geometric distribution

Some concepts and models usefulninthe analysis of discrete life time data

This thesis entitled Reliability Modelling and Analysis in Discrete time Some Concepts and Models Useful in the Analysis of discrete life time data.The present study consists of five chapters. In Chapter II we take up the derivation of some general results useful in reliability modelling that involves two component mixtures. Expression for the failure rate, mean residual life and second moment of residual life of the mixture distributions in terms of the corresponding quantities in the component distributions are investigated. Some applications of these results are also pointed out. The role of the geometric,Waring and negative hypergeometric distributions as models of life lengths in the discrete time domain has been discussed already. While describing various reliability characteristics, it was found that they can be often considered as a class. The applicability of these models in single populations naturally extends to the case of populations composed of sub-populations making mixtures of these distributions worth investigating. Accordingly the general properties, various reliability characteristics and characterizations of these models are discussed in chapter III. Inference of parameters in mixture distribution is usually a difficult problem because the mass function of the mixture is a linear function of the component masses that makes manipulation of the likelihood equations, leastsquare function etc and the resulting computations.very difficult. We show that one of our characterizations help in inferring the parameters of the geometric mixture without involving computational hazards. As mentioned in the review of results in the previous sections, partial moments were not studied extensively in literature especially in the case of discrete distributions. Chapters IV and V deal with descending and ascending partial factorial moments. Apart from studying their properties, we prove characterizations of distributions by functional forms of partial moments and establish recurrence relations between successive moments for some well known families. It is further demonstrated that partial moments are equally efficient and convenient compared to many of the conventional tools to resolve practical problems in reliability modelling and analysis. The study concludes by indicating some new problems that surfaced during the course of the present investigation which could be the subject for a future work in this area.

Electric Motor Life Estimate Based on Statistic Data

Many different methods based on both planned inspection and health inspection for estimate of electrical equipment health are used. The estimation method of residual life of electric motors by their health in pulp and paper industry is considered.

Asset health prediction using condition indicators and operating environment indicators : a case study

Prognostics and asset life prediction is one of research potentials in engineering asset health management. We previously developed the Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) to effectively and explicitly predict asset life using three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators. We have formerly studied the application of both the semi-parametric EHM and non-parametric EHM to the survival probability estimation in the reliability field. The survival time in these models is dependent not only upon the age of the asset monitored, but also upon the condition and operating environment information obtained. This paper is a further study of the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs to the hazard and residual life prediction of a set of resistance elements. The resistance elements were used as corrosion sensors for measuring the atmospheric corrosion rate in a laboratory experiment. In this paper, the estimated hazard of the resistance element using the semi-parametric EHM and the non-parametric EHM is compared to the traditional Weibull model and the Aalen Linear Regression Model (ALRM), respectively. Due to assuming a Weibull distribution in the baseline hazard of the semi-parametric EHM, the estimated hazard using this model is compared to the traditional Weibull model. The estimated hazard using the non-parametric EHM is compared to ALRM which is a well-known non-parametric covariate-based hazard model. At last, the predicted residual life of the resistance element using both EHMs is compared to the actual life data.

Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

抽油杆裂纹扩展的实验研究和剩余疲劳寿命的预测

应用超声波探测抽油杆疲劳裂纹扩展时的深度a, 通过室内实验找出D级抽油杆裂纹深度a和裂纹宽度c之间的比趋向于0.78, 简化后可直接研究超声波信号V和裂纹深度a之间的关系, 从而用V-a关系估算有疲劳裂纹D级抽油杆的剩余寿命, 避免杆断带来的经济损失.