Ensemble methods for environmental data modelling with support vector regression

This paper investigates the use of ensemble of predictors in order to improve the performance of spatial prediction methods. Support vector regression (SVR), a popular method from the field of statistical machine learning, is used. Several instances of SVR are combined using different data sampling schemes (bagging and boosting). Bagging shows good performance, and proves to be more computationally efficient than training a single SVR model while reducing error. Boosting, however, does not improve results on this specific problem.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management. A case study in the middle Guadiana basin, Spain.

The objective of this research was the implementation of a participatory process for the development of a tool to support decision making in water management. The process carried out aims at attaining an improved understanding of the water system and an encouragement of the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders to build a shared vision of the system. In addition, the process intends to identify impacts of possible solutions to given problems, which will help to take decisions.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

Veiligheidsmonitor Voortgezet (Speciaal) Onderwijs: Opzet en resultaten.

Informatie wordt gegeven over de beleidsvraag, de probleemopzet, het onderzoeksontwerp met kernvariabelelen, het onderzoeksproces en de belangrijkste uitkomsten van deze multiniveau, longitudinale veiligheidsmonitor. Tenslotte worden enkele van de meest kenmerkende aspecten van deze onderzoeksmethode behandeld.

Learning for self-regulation: Improving instructional benefits for pupils, teachers, parents, schools, and society at large

Compulsory education laws oblige primary and secondary schools to give each pupil positive encouragement in, for example, social, emotional, cognitive, creative, and ethical respects. This is a fairly smooth process for most pupils, but it is not as easy to achieve with others. A pattern of pupil, home or family, and school variables turns out to be responsible for a long-term process that may lead to a pupil’s dropping out of education. A systemic approach will do much to introduce more clarity into the diagnosis, potential reduction and possible prevention of some persistent educational problems that express themselves in related phenomena, for example low school motivation and achievement; forced underachievement of high ability pupils; concentration of bullying and violent behaviour in and around some types of classes and schools; and drop-out percentages that are relatively constant across time. Such problems have a negative effect on pupils, teachers, parents, schools, and society alike. In this address, I would therefore like to clarify some of the systemic causes and processes that we have identified between specific educational and pupil characteristics. Both theory and practice can assist in developing, implementing, and checking better learning methods and coaching procedures, particularly for pupils at risk. This development approach will take time and require co-ordination, but it will result in much better processes and outcomes than we are used to. First, I will diagnose some systemic aspects of education that do not seem to optimise the learning processes and school careers of some types of pupils in particular. Second, I will specify cognitive, social, motivational, and self-regulative aspects of learning tasks and relate corresponding learning processes to relevant instructional and wider educational contexts. I will elaborate these theoretical notions into an educational design with systemic instructional guidelines and multilevel procedures that may improve learning processes for different types of pupils. Internet-based Information and Communication Technology, or ICT, also plays a major role here. Third, I will report on concrete developments made in prototype research and trials. The development process concerns ICT-based differentiation of learning materials and procedures, and ICT-based strategies to improve pupil development and learning. Fourth, I will focus on the experience gained in primary and secondary educational practice with respect to implementation. We can learn much from such practical experience, in particular about the conditions for developing and implementing the necessary changes in and around schools. Finally, I will propose future research. As I hope to make clear, theory-based development and implementation research can join forces with systemic innovation and differentiated assessment in educational practice, to pave the way for optimal “learning for self-regulation” for pupils, teachers, parents, schools, and society at large.

Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

The Higher Education Academy Engineering Subject Center

The engineering subject center provides support for engineering students and staff in higher education at university. The website provides articles helping students in a large range of subjects, such as book reviews for a variety subjects, support in writing reports or essays and personal development in subject areas and university life in general.

Modelling for Problem Solving in the Large

This a short presentation which introduces how models and modelling help us to solve large scale problems in the real world. It introduces the idea that dynamic behaviour is caused by interacting components in the system. Feedback in the system makes behaviour prediction difficult unless we use modelling to support understanding

Generic unified modelling process for developing semantically rich, dynamic and temporal models

Models play a vital role in supporting a range of activities in numerous domains. We rely on models to support the design, visualisation, analysis and representation of parts of the world around us, and as such significant research effort has been invested into numerous areas of modelling; including support for model semantics, dynamic states and behaviour, temporal data storage and visualisation. Whilst these efforts have increased our capabilities and allowed us to create increasingly powerful software-based models, the process of developing models, supporting tools and /or data structures remains difficult, expensive and error-prone. In this paper we define from literature the key factors in assessing a model’s quality and usefulness: semantic richness, support for dynamic states and object behaviour, temporal data storage and visualisation. We also identify a number of shortcomings in both existing modelling standards and model development processes and propose a unified generic process to guide users through the development of semantically rich, dynamic and temporal models.

Performance assessment of a vertical axis turbine in a marine current flume tank and CFD modelling

As advances in numerical modelling techniques support the increased confidence in predictions from computer simulations, the need remains to have experimental verification built into the design process. This paper outlines the experimental investigation carried out on a shielded vertical axis turbine in a marine environment. The experiments consist of performance measurements and the use of particle image velocimetry on a small scale device in a marine current flume. The results demonstrate that the performance of the device can be modelled numerically; in particular, the results show that the numerical model used can correctly predict the increase in performance with Reynolds number.

Disabling and Enabling Technologies for Learning in Higher Education for All : Issues and Challenges for Whom?

Integration, inclusion, and equity constitute fundamental dimensions of democracy in post-World War II societies and their institutions. The study presented here reports upon the ways in which individuals and institutions both use and account for the roles that technologies, including ICT, play in disabling and enabling access for learning in higher education for all. Technological innovations during the 20th and 21st centuries, including ICT, have been heralded as holding significant promise for revolutionizing issues of access in societal institutions like schools, healthcare services, etc. (at least in the global North). Taking a socially oriented perspective, the study presented in this paper focuses on an ethnographically framed analysis of two datasets that critically explores the role that technologies, including ICT, play in higher education for individuals who are “differently abled” and who constitute a variation on a continuum of capabilities. Functionality as a dimension of everyday life in higher education in the 21st century is explored through the analysis of (i) case studies of two “differently abled” students in Sweden and (ii) current support services at universities in Sweden. The findings make visible the work that institutions and their members do through analyses of the organization of time and space and the use of technologies in institutional settings against the backdrop of individuals’ accountings and life trajectories. This study also highlights the relevance of multi-scale data analyses for revisiting the ways in which identity positions become framed or understood within higher education.

Os sentidos das experiências compartilhadas pelas professoras em processos de formação continuada na rede municipal de ensino de Marilândia–Espírito Santo

Investiga as relações entre a formação continuada de professores e as práticas de partilha das experiências construídas na atuação docente nos anos iniciais do ensino fundamental, numa escola da Rede Municipal de Ensino de Marilândia–ES. Questiona, com base nas narrativas de cinco professoras, como a experiência compartilhada nos processos de formação continuada de professores dos anos iniciais do ensino fundamental na Rede Municipal de Ensino de Marilândia–ES é vivida e percebida por elas e quais sentidos são produzidos sobre a formação continuada. Pressupõe a perspectiva de uma formação continuada em processo, ao longo da vida, desenvolvida em redes coletivas de trabalho e partilha de experiências no cotidiano escolar e na vida das professoras. Em face dessa complexidade, a pesquisa de caráter qualitativo e abordagem metodológica ancorada na pesquisa narrativa (auto)biográfica tem, como procedimentos de investigação, as entrevistas biográficas direcionadas para a construção de narrativas orais e escritas, a observação participante dos sujeitos da pesquisa em momentos formativos instituídos, a análise de documentos da Secretaria Municipal de Educação de Marilândia e da escola e a aplicação de questionário para composição de dados acerca do perfil dos sujeitos da pesquisa. A definição do caminho metodológico deste estudo teve inspiração em Benjamin e Larrosa e, no campo da formação de professores, sustentação nos referenciais de Nóvoa, Souza, Freire e Giroux. Os resultados apontam uma variedade de sentidos sobre a formação continuada de professores, desde formas mais institucionalizadas até iniciativas menos formais, vividas por meio da partilha de experiências e de processos (auto)formativos, que contribuem para o desenvolvimento pessoal e profissional do professor e organizacional da escola, de modo mais aproximado do trabalho pedagógico na unidade escolar e na sala de aula. Aponta a necessidade da valorização das experiências dos professores e do investimento no estudo das práticas. Considera a existência, entre os professores, de uma responsividade compartilhada sobre a formação do outro, compondo um coletivo instituinte na escola. Assinala a potencialidade da pesquisa narrativa (auto)biográfica como opção metodológica que possibilita o entrecruzamento dos movimentos investigativos e formativos.

Inclusão no ensino superior: modelos de atuação e contributos dos serviços de apoio em Portugal

A inclusão de estudantes com deficiência na Universidade tem desafiado as instituições a responderem às demandas de acesso e permanência específicas destes estudantes. Neste artigo analisaremos como estão organizadas as iniciativas institucionais de inclusão, tomando como objeto os serviços de apoio na universidade e os desafios explicitados pelos responsáveis dos setores. Participaram do estudo três responsáveis técnicas pelos serviços de inclusão em três universidades portuguesas. Os dados foram recolhidos por meio de entrevista semiestruturada e analisados numa abordagem exploratória. Os resultados apontam para o desafio de proporcionar, para além das condições de acesso, a qualificação das condições de permanência que possam resultar em experiências exitosas dos estudantes, ampliando a oportunidades de obter autonomia e sucesso académico. A partir da discussão, apresentaremos considerações que podem constituir indicadores de intervenção e, ainda, temas para investigações futuras que possam contribuir para práticas mais adequadas de atendimento a esse grupo de estudantes.

Monte Carlo simulations of metasomatic enrichment in the lithosphere and implications for the source of alkaline basalts

One hypothesis for the origin of alkaline lavas erupted on oceanic islands and in intracontinental settings is that they represent the melts of amphibole-rich veins in the lithosphere (or melts of their dehydrated equivalents if metasomatized lithosphere is recycled into the convecting mantle). Amphibole-rich veins are interpreted as cumulates produced by crystallization of low-degree melts of the underlying asthenosphere as they ascend through the lithosphere. We present the results of trace-element modelling of the formation and melting of veins formed in this way with the goal of testing this hypothesis and for predicting how variability in the formation and subsequent melting of such cumulates (and adjacent cryptically and modally metasomatized lithospheric peridotite) would be manifested in magmas generated by such a process. Because the high-pressure phase equilibria of hydrous near-solidus melts of garnet lherzolite are poorly constrained and given the likely high variability of the hypothesized accumulation and remelting processes, we used Monte Carlo techniques to estimate how uncertainties in the model parameters (e.g. the compositions of the asthenospheric sources, their trace-element contents, and their degree of melting; the modal proportions of crystallizing phases, including accessory phases, as the asthenospheric partial melts ascend and crystallize in the lithosphere; the amount of metasomatism of the peridotitic country rock; the degree of melting of the cumulates and the amount of melt derived from the metasomatized country rock) propagate through the process and manifest themselves as variability in the trace-element contents and radiogenic isotopic ratios of model vein compositions and erupted alkaline magma compositions. We then compare the results of the models with amphibole observed in lithospheric veins and with oceanic and continental alkaline magmas. While the trace-element patterns of the near-solidus peridotite melts, the initial anhydrous cumulate assemblage (clinopyroxene +/- garnet +/- olivine +/- orthopyroxene), and the modelled coexisting liquids do not match the patterns observed in alkaline lavas, our calculations show that with further crystallization and the appearance of amphibole (and accessory minerals such as rutile, ilmenite, apatite, etc.) the calculated cumulate assemblages have trace-element patterns that closely match those observed in the veins and lavas. These calculated hydrous cumulate assemblages are highly enriched in incompatible trace elements and share many similarities with the trace-element patterns of alkaline basalts observed in oceanic or continental setting such as positive Nb/La, negative Ce/Pb, and similiar slopes of the rare earth elements. By varying the proportions of trapped liquid and thus simulating the cryptic and modal metasomatism observed in peridotite that surrounds these veins, we can model the variations in Ba/Nb, Ce/Pb, and Nb/U ratios that are observed in alkaline basalts. If the isotopic compositions of the initial low-degree peridotite melts are similar to the range observed in mid-ocean ridge basalt, our model calculations produce cumulates that would have isotopic compositions similar to those observed in most alkaline ocean island basalt (OIB) and continental magmas after similar to 0 center dot 15 Gyr. However, to produce alkaline basalts with HIMU isotopic compositions requires much longer residence times (i.e. 1-2 Gyr), consistent with subduction and recycling of metasomatized lithosphere through the mantle. such as a heterogeneous asthenosphere. These modelling results support the interpretation proposed by various researchers that amphibole-bearing veins represent cumulates formed during the differentiation of a volatile-bearing low-degree peridotite melt and that these cumulates are significant components of the sources of alkaline OIB and continental magmas. The results of the forward models provide the potential for detailed tests of this class of hypotheses for the origin of alkaline magmas worldwide and for interpreting major and minor aspects of the geochemical variability of these magmas.