Welfare costs of inflation: the case for interest-bearing money and empirical estimates for Brazil

We provide in this paper a closed fonn for the Welfare Cost of Inflation which we prove to be closer than Bailey's expression to the correct solution of the corresponding non-separable differential equation. Next. we extend this approach to ao economy with interest-bearing money, once again presenting a better appoximation than the one given by Bailey's approach. Fmally, empirical estimates for Brazil are presented.

WeIfare costs of inflation the case for interest-bearing money and empiricaI Estimates for Brazil

We provide in this paper a closed fonn for the Welfare Cost of Inflation which we prove to be closer than Bailey's expression to the correct solution of the corresponding non-separable differential equation. Next, we extend this approach to an economy with interest-bearing money, once again presenting a better appoximation than the one given by Bailey's approach. Finally, empirical estimates for Brazil are presented.

An ordering of measures of the welfare cost of inflation in economies with interest-bearing deposits

This paper builds on Lucas (2000) and on Cysne (2003) to derive and order six alternative measures of the welfare costs of inflation (five of which already existing in the literature) for any vector of opportunity costs. The ordering of the functions is carried out for economies with or without interestbearing deposits. We provide examples and closed-form solutions for the log-log money demand both in the unidimensional and in the multidimensional setting (when interest-bearing monies are present). An estimate of the maximum relative error a researcher can incur when using any particular measure is also provided.

Measures of the welfare cost of inflation: a complete ordering

This paper presents three contributions to the literature on the welfare cost of ináation. First, it introduces a new sensible way of measuring this cost - that of a compensating variation in consumption or income, instead of the equivalent variation notion that has been extensively used in empirical and theoretical research during the past fiftt years. We Önd this new measure to be interestingly related to the proxy measure of the shopping-time welfare cost of ináation introduced by Simonsen and Cysne (2001). Secondly, it discusses for which money-demand functions this and the shopping-time measure can be evaluated in an economically meaningful way. And, last but not least, it completely orders a comprehensive set of measures of the welfare cost of ináation for these money-demand specification. All of our results are extended to an economy in which there are many types of monies present, and are illustrated with the log-log money-demand specification.

Welfare cost of inflation considering adoption decisions and interest-bearing deposits

Attanasio et al. (JPE, 2002) have used microeconomic data on households to provide new estimates of the welfare costs of infiation using Bailey's unidimensional welfare measure as a basis for their calculations. Such a measure does not properly take into consideration lhe fact that the majority of households in their sample (58.7 percent) holds not only bank deposits and currency, but also a second type of interest-bearing assct. This work devises alternative formulas which account for the existence of bank deposits and a sccond interest-bearing asset in the economy, as well as for adoption decisions regarding alternative financiai technologies.

The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

Lucas (1987) has shown the surprising result that the welfare cost of business cycles is quite small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-áedged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for the post-WWII era using the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for trends and cycles, which considers not only business-cycle uncertainty but also uncertainty from the stochastic trend in consumption. The post-WWII period is relatively quiet, with the welfare costs of uncertainty being about 0:9% of per-capita consumption. Although changing the decomposition method changed substantially initial results, the welfare cost of uncertainty is qualitatively small in the post-WWII era - about $175.00 a year per-capita in the U.S. We also computed the marginal welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty using this same technique. It is about twice as large as the welfare cost ñ$350.00 a year per-capita.

The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

With standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-fledged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for post-war U.S. using the BeveridgeNelson decomposition. Welfare costs are about 0.9% per-capita consumption ($175.00) and marginal welfare costs are about twice as large.

Japan : production and imports of food : an analysis of the welfare cost of protection /

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Welfare characterization of monetary-applied models and three implications

This paper demonstrates that the applied monetary models - the Sidrauski-type models and the cash-in-advance models, augmented with a banking sector that supplies money substitutes services - imply trajectories which are Pareto-Optimum restricted to a given path of the real quantity of money. As a consequence, three results follow: First, Bailey’s formula to evaluate the welfare cost of inflation is indeed accurate, if the longrun capital stock does not depend on the inflation rate and if the compensate demand is considered. Second, the relevant money demand concept for this issue - the impact of inflation on welfare - is the monetary base. Third, if the long-run capital stock depends on the inflation rate, this dependence has a second-order impact on welfare, and, conceptually, it is not a distortion from the social point of view. These three implications moderate some evaluations of the welfare cost of the perfect predicted inflation.

Credibility and Signaling in Disinflation- a Cross Country Examination

This paper develops a model of money demand where the opportunity cost of holding money is subject to regime changes. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are assumed to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to directly observe whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program but can construct probability inferences on the basis of available observations of inflation and money growth. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime. This specification is estimated and tested using data from the Israeli and Argentine high inflation periods. Results indicate the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government’s signaling might substantially simplify the inference problem and increase the speed of learning on the part of the agents. However, under certain conditions, it might increase the volatility of inflation. After the introduction of an inflation stabilization plan, the welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their real balances in the short-term, even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level.

Assorted topics in monetary economics

Esta tese é uma coleção de quatro artigos em economia monetária escritos sob a supervisão do Professor Rubens Penha Cysne. O primeiro desses artigos calcula o viés presente em medidas do custo de bem-estar da inflação devido a não se levar em conta o potencial substitutivo de moedas que rendem juros, como depósitos bancários.[1] O segundo se concentra na questão teórica de se comparar os escopos dos tradicionais modelos money-in-the-utility-function e shopping-time através do estudo das propriedades das curvas de demanda que eles geram.[2] O terceiro desses trabalhos revisita um artigo clássico de Stanley Fischer sobre a correlação entre a taxa de crescimento da oferta monetária e a taxa de acumulação de capital no caminho de transição.[3] Finalmente, o quarto diz respeito à posição relativa de cada uma de seis medidas do custo de bem-estar da inflação (uma das quais é nova) em relação às outras cinco, e uma estimativa do erro relativo máximo em que o pesquisador pode incorrer devido a sua escolha de empregar uma dessas medidas qualquer vis-à-vis as outras.[4] This thesis collects four papers on monetary economics written under the supervision of Professor Rubens Penha Cysne. The first of these papers assesses the bias occuring in welfare-cost-of-inflation measures due to failing to take into consideration the substitution potential of interest-bearing monies such as bank deposits.[1] The second one tackles the theoretical issue of comparing the generality of the money-in-the-utility-function- and the shopping-time models by studying the properties of the demand curves they generate.[2] The third of these works revisits a classic paper by Stanley Fischer on the correlation between the growth rate of money supply and the rate of capital accumulation on the transition path.[3] Finally, the fourth one concerns the relative standing of each one of six measures of the welfare cost of inflation (one of which is new) with respect to the other five, and an estimate of the maximum relative error one can incur by choosing to employ a particular welfare measure in place of the others.[4] [1] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2010. Welfare costs of inflation when interest-bearing deposits are disregarded: A calculation of the bias. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, 1015-1030. [2] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2009. On the integrability of money-demand functions by the Sidrauski and the shopping-time models. Journal of Banking & Finance 33, 1555-1562. [3] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2010. Money supply and capital accumulation on the transition path revisited. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42, 1173-1184. [4] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2011. An ordering of measures of the welfare cost of inflation in economies with interest-bearing deposits. Macroeconomic Dynamics, forthcoming.

Monetary dynamics in a general equilibrium version of the Baumol-Tobin model

I study the welfare cost of inflation and the effect on prices after a permanent increase in the interest rate. In the steady state, the real money demand is homogeneous of degree one in income and its interest-rate elasticity is approximately equal to −1/2. Consumers are indifferent between an economy with 10% p.a. inflation and one with zero inflation if their income is 1% higher in the first economy. A permanent increase in the interest rate makes the price level to drop initially and inflation to adjust slowly to its steady state level.

Characterizing distribution rules for cost sharing games

In noncooperative cost sharing games, individually strategic agents choose resources based on how the welfare (cost or revenue) generated at each resource (which depends on the set of agents that choose the resource) is distributed. The focus is on finding distribution rules that lead to stable allocations, which is formalized by the concept of Nash equilibrium, e.g., Shapley value (budget-balanced) and marginal contribution (not budget-balanced) rules.

Recent work that seeks to characterize the space of all such rules shows that the only budget-balanced distribution rules that guarantee equilibrium existence in all welfare sharing games are generalized weighted Shapley values (GWSVs), by exhibiting a specific 'worst-case' welfare function which requires that GWSV rules be used. Our work provides an exact characterization of the space of distribution rules (not necessarily budget-balanced) for any specific local welfare functions remains, for a general class of scalable and separable games with well-known applications, e.g., facility location, routing, network formation, and coverage games.

We show that all games conditioned on any fixed local welfare functions possess an equilibrium if and only if the distribution rules are equivalent to GWSV rules on some 'ground' welfare functions. Therefore, it is neither the existence of some worst-case welfare function, nor the restriction of budget-balance, which limits the design to GWSVs. Also, in order to guarantee equilibrium existence, it is necessary to work within the class of potential games, since GWSVs result in (weighted) potential games.

We also provide an alternative characterization—all games conditioned on any fixed local welfare functions possess an equilibrium if and only if the distribution rules are equivalent to generalized weighted marginal contribution (GWMC) rules on some 'ground' welfare functions. This result is due to a deeper fundamental connection between Shapley values and marginal contributions that our proofs expose—they are equivalent given a transformation connecting their ground welfare functions. (This connection leads to novel closed-form expressions for the GWSV potential function.) Since GWMCs are more tractable than GWSVs, a designer can tradeoff budget-balance with computational tractability in deciding which rule to implement.