From evolution to co-evolution – An empirical study of the role of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics

In the past decades since Schumpeter’s influential writings economists have pursued research to examine the role of innovation in certain industries on firm as well as on industry level. Researchers describe innovations as the main trigger of industry dynamics, while policy makers argue that research and education are directly linked to economic growth and welfare. Thus, research and education are an important objective of public policy. Firms and public research are regarded as the main actors which are relevant for the creation of new knowledge. This knowledge is finally brought to the market through innovations. What is more, policy makers support innovations. Both actors, i.e. policy makers and researchers, agree that innovation plays a central role but researchers still neglect the role that public policy plays in the field of industrial dynamics. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to learn more about the interdependencies of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics. The overarching research question of this dissertation asks whether it is possible to analyze patterns of industry evolution – from evolution to co-evolution – based on empirical studies of the role of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics. This work starts with a hypothesis-based investigation of traditional approaches of industrial dynamics. Namely, the testing of a basic assumption of the core models of industrial dynamics and the analysis of the evolutionary patterns – though with an industry which is driven by public policy as example. Subsequently it moves to a more explorative approach, investigating co-evolutionary processes. The underlying questions of the research include the following: Do large firms have an advantage because of their size which is attributable to cost spreading? Do firms that plan to grow have more innovations? What role does public policy play for the evolutionary patterns of an industry? Are the same evolutionary patterns observable as those described in the ILC theories? And is it possible to observe regional co-evolutionary processes of science, innovation and industry evolution? Based on two different empirical contexts – namely the laser and the photovoltaic industry – this dissertation tries to answer these questions and combines an evolutionary approach with a co-evolutionary approach. The first chapter starts with an introduction of the topic and the fields this dissertation is based on. The second chapter provides a new test of the Cohen and Klepper (1996) model of cost spreading, which explains the relationship between innovation, firm size and R&D, at the example of the photovoltaic industry in Germany. First, it is analyzed whether the cost spreading mechanism serves as an explanation for size advantages in this industry. This is related to the assumption that the incentives to invest in R&D increase with the ex-ante output. Furthermore, it is investigated whether firms that plan to grow will have more innovative activities. The results indicate that cost spreading serves as an explanation for size advantages in this industry and, furthermore, growth plans lead to higher amount of innovative activities. What is more, the role public policy plays for industry evolution is not finally analyzed in the field of industrial dynamics. In the case of Germany, the introduction of demand inducing policy instruments stimulated market and industry growth. While this policy immediately accelerated market volume, the effect on industry evolution is more ambiguous. Thus, chapter three analyzes this relationship by considering a model of industry evolution, where demand-inducing policies will be discussed as a possible trigger of development. The findings suggest that these instruments can take the same effect as a technical advance to foster the growth of an industry and its shakeout. The fourth chapter explores the regional co-evolution of firm population size, private-sector patenting and public research in the empirical context of German laser research and manufacturing over more than 40 years from the emergence of the industry to the mid-2000s. The qualitative as well as quantitative evidence is suggestive of a co-evolutionary process of mutual interdependence rather than a unidirectional effect of public research on private-sector activities. Chapter five concludes with a summary, the contribution of this work as well as the implications and an outlook of further possible research.

Technological changes and industrial dynamics in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Problems in industrial dynamics. Contributors: Willard R. Fey [and others]

Bibliographical footnotes.

The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.

Concorrência e mudança técnica: aportes e limites dos modelos neo-schumpeterianos evolucionários de dinâmica industrial

This paper makes a critical survey of some recent evolutionary economic literature dealing with industrial dynamics. Although the evolutionary models of industrial dynamics has explored the relationships among market structure and the innovation process within an analytical context that emphasize non-linearity, behavioral asymmetries and the existence of selective process in the competitive dynamics of markets, have been capable of offering compatible results with industrial organization stylized facts, a lot of limitations in technical change description pointed out have able to alter in a crucial way the results attained.

Dinámica de la producción industrial e importación de bienes de capital y materias primas: relaciones de largo plazo y ajuste dinámico

El presente documento se propone estimar y analizar la existencia de una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo entre la producción industrial y la importación de bienes de capital y materias primas para el período enero de 1993 - abril de 2005, que resulta útil para monitorear la dinámica industrial en el corto plazo y las complementariedades que pueden existir entre los factores productivos del mercado interno con el externo. Para tal efecto, se desarrolla un análisis econométrico de la metodología de cointegración con componentes estacionales aplicado a las variables índice de producción real (IPR), importación de bienes de capital e importación de materias primas de la industria colombiana. A partir de un modelo de cointegración estacional se evidencia empíricamente la existencia de una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo entre estas variables durante el período analizado. Adicionalmente, se utiliza el modelo estimado para realizar ejercicios de impulso-respuesta para analizar la trayectoria futura de las variables de interés cuando son afectadas por choques exógenos en el tiempo.

Firm dynamics in the Cambodian garment industry: firm turnover, productivity growth, and wage profile under trade liberalization

The international garment trade was liberalized in 2005 following the termination of the MFA (Multifibre Arrangement) and ever since then, price competition has intensified. Employing a unique firm dataset collected by the authors, this paper examines the changes in the performance of Cambodian garment firms between 2002/03 and 2008/09. During the period concerned, frequent firm turnover led to an improvement of the industry’s productivity, and the study found that the average total-factor productivity (TFP) of new entrants was substantially higher than that of exiting firms. Furthermore, we observed that thanks to productivity growth, an improvement in workers’ welfare, including a rise in the relative wages of the low-skilled, was taking place. These industrial dynamics differ considerably from those indicated by the “race to the bottom” argument as applied to labor-intensive industrialization in low income countries.

The global uranium rush and its Africa frontier. Lessons from Namibia

Uranium mines are the - often forgotten - source of nuclear power. The promotion of nuclear energy as a clean alternative and the projected increase of electricity demand in countries such as China and India, have led to a global “uranium rush”, unseen since the peak of the Cold War. This article studies the formation of the expanding nuclear frontier looking at the interaction between the global uranium metabolism, industrial dynamics and local ecologies of resistance using Namibia as a case-study. Namibia, the world´s fourth largest producer of uranium, stands at the frontier of this rush with sixty-six recently granted prospecting licenses that could turn into mines, compared to only three currently operating mines. We focus on three generic attributes that help to explain the emergence and intensity of resistance by local communities to uranium mining: the ecology and geography of the resource; the degree and type of political and economic marginalization of the community; and crucially, the connection and integration of local concerns with broader social movements and political demands. We show with the use of empirical material how these factors play out differently in five Namibian communities that have been, or stand to be, affected by uranium mining, and explain how local ecologies of resistance shape the global uranium rush.

Geographical determinants of the creation of manufacturing firms: The regions of Spain

La complexitat dels mecanismes que determinen l'entrada i la sortida de signatures augmenta quan diferències geogràfiques de l'estructura de producció, la capital humana i l'atur són considerades. Variacions interregionals en la tarifa de les noves de signatures dintre de cada activitat industrial persisteixen durant els períodes llargs de temps, una circumstància que indica que hi ha determinants no-conjunturals en la capacitat de regions per a crear nous projectes industrials. Aquest estudi està preocupat amb l'establiment d'influència variables geogràfiques sobre la fundació de nous establiments de la fabricació. Les indústries (NEIX la R 25) en les regions espanyoles (el BOIG 2) han estat preses com les unitats d'anàlisis per al període 1980-1992

Geographical determinants of the creation of manufacturing firms: The regions of Spain

La complexitat dels mecanismes que determinen l'entrada i la sortida de signatures augmenta quan diferències geogràfiques de l'estructura de producció, la capital humana i l'atur són considerades. Variacions interregionals en la tarifa de les noves de signatures dintre de cada activitat industrial persisteixen durant els períodes llargs de temps, una circumstància que indica que hi ha determinants no-conjunturals en la capacitat de regions per a crear nous projectes industrials. Aquest estudi està preocupat amb l'establiment d'influència variables geogràfiques sobre la fundació de nous establiments de la fabricació. Les indústries (NEIX la R 25) en les regions espanyoles (el BOIG 2) han estat preses com les unitats d'anàlisis per al període 1980-1992

Convergence in Industry Evolution

The objective of the thesis is to enhance understanding of the evolution of convergence. Previous research has shown that the technological interfaces between distinct industries are one of the major sources of new radical cross-industry innovations. Despite the fact that convergence in industry evolution has attracted a substantial managerial interest, the conceptual confusion within the field of convergence exists. Firstly, this study clarifies the convergence phenomenon and its impact to industry evolution. Secondly, the study creates novel patent analysis methods to analyze technological convergence and provide tools for anticipating the early stages of convergence. Overall the study combines the industry evolution perspective and the convergence view of industrial evolution. The theoretical background for the study consists of the industry life cycle theories, technology evolution, and technological trajectories. The study links several important concepts in analyzing industry evolution, technological discontinuities, path-dependency, technological interfaces as a source of industry transformation, and the evolutionary stagesof convergence. Based on reviewing the literature a generic understanding of industry transformation and industrial dynamics was generated. In the convergence studies, the theoretical basis is in the discussion of different convergence types and their impacts on industry evolution, and in anticipating and monitoring the stages of convergence. The study is divided in two parts. The first part gives a general overview, and the second part comprises eight research publications. Our case study is based historically on two very distinct industries of the paper and electronics companies as a test environment to evaluate the importance of emerging business sectors and technological convergence as a source of industry transformation. Both qualitative and quantitative research methodology are utilized. The results of this study reveal that technological convergence and complementary innovations from different fields have significant effect to the emerging new business sector formation. The patent-based indicators in the analysis of technological convergence can be utilized on analyzing technology competition, capability and competence development, knowledge accumulation, knowledge spill-overs, and technology-based industry transformation. The patent-based indicators can provide insights to the future competitive environment. Results and conclusions from empirical part seem not be in conflict with real observations in the industry.

El Outsourcing en la dinámica de sistemas hacia mercados extranjeros

Este trabajo recopila literatura académica relevante sobre estrategias de entrada y metodologías para la toma de decisión sobre la contratación de servicios de Outsourcing para el caso de empresas que planean expandirse hacia mercados extranjeros. La manera en que una empresa planifica su entrada a un mercado extranjero, y realiza la consideración y evaluación de información relevante y el diseño de la estrategia, determina el éxito o no de la misma. De otro lado, las metodologías consideradas se concentran en el nivel estratégico de la pirámide organizacional. Se parte de métodos simples para llegar a aquellos basados en la Teoría de Decisión Multicriterio, tanto individuales como híbridos. Finalmente, se presenta la Dinámica de Sistemas como herramienta valiosa en el proceso, por cuanto puede combinarse con métodos multicriterio.

Diseño y evaluación de intervenciones en organizaciones empresariales desde la dinámica de sistemas: triage

Este documento describe la problemática actual en el área de urgencia en las instituciones de la salud, enumerando los problemas más recurrentes que afectan a los distintos grupos de interés y que han generado una búsqueda por parte de la administración de nuevas estrategias para alcanzar sus objetivos. A partir de esto se realiza un acercamiento bibliográfico del funcionamiento del Triage y de los estudios realizados usando la simulación en las estancias hospitalarias, profundizando en la metodología de Dinámica de Sistemas, como una herramienta efectiva para la toma de decisiones.

Gestión de la cadena de suministros desde la dinámica de sistemas. Aproximación al mejoramiento de la toma de decisiones

El objetivo de este trabajo es hacer un estudio sobre la cadena de suministros en organizaciones empresariales desde la Dinámica de Sistemas y como esta puede aportar al desempeño y el control de las cadenas de suministros. Se buscará Abordar el cocimiento sobre tres perspectivas de Supply Chain y su relación con la dinámica de sistemas. También se buscará identificar los tipos de integración en las actividades de la gestión en la cadena de suministros y sus horizontes de planeación. Por último, se pretende analizar las aplicaciones de Supply Chain Management que se han basado en el uso de la metodología de dinámica de sistemas. Para esto, la investigación empezará por definir la problemática alrededor de unir estas dos áreas y definirá el marco teórico que fundan estas dos disciplinas. Luego se abordará la metodología usada por la Dinámica de Sistemas y los diferentes aspectos de la cadena de suministros. Se Ahondará en el acercamiento de las dos disciplinas y como convergen ayudando la SD a la SCM (Supply Chain Management). En este punto también se describirán los trabajos en los diferentes enfoques que se han hecho a partir de uso de la dinámica de sistemas. Por último, presentaremos las correspondientes conclusiones y comentarios acerca de este campo de investigación y su pertinencia en el campo de la Supply Chain. Esta investigación abarca dos grandes corrientes de pensamiento, una sistémica, a través de la metodología de dinámica de sistemas y la otra, lógico analítica la cual es usada en Supply Chain. Se realizó una revisión de la literatura sobre las aplicaciones de dinámica de sistemas (SD) en el área de Supply Chain, sus puntos en común y se documentaron importantes empleos de esta metodología que se han hecho en la gestión de la cadena de suministros.