Dependence of anuran diversity on environmental descriptors in farmland ponds

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Contribuição dos ovos de resistência de Cladocera (Crustacea: Branchiopoda) para a recolonização de ambientes lacustres temporários

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A novel brain partition highlights the modular skeleton shared by structure and function

Elucidating the intricate relationship between brain structure and function, both in healthy and pathological conditions, is a key challenge for modern neuroscience. Recent progress in neuroimaging has helped advance our understanding of this important issue, with diffusion images providing information about structural connectivity (SC) and functional magnetic resonance imaging shedding light on resting state functional connectivity (rsFC). Here, we adopt a systems approach, relying on modular hierarchical clustering, to study together SC and rsFC datasets gathered independently from healthy human subjects. Our novel approach allows us to find a common skeleton shared by structure and function from which a new, optimal, brain partition can be extracted. We describe the emerging common structure-function modules (SFMs) in detail and compare them with commonly employed anatomical or functional parcellations. Our results underline the strong correspondence between brain structure and resting-state dynamics as well as the emerging coherent organization of the human brain.

HIERARCHICAL DECOMPOSITION OF MULTICLASS PROBLEMS

Several popular Machine Learning techniques are originally designed for the solution of two-class problems. However, several classification problems have more than two classes. One approach to deal with multiclass problems using binary classifiers is to decompose the multiclass problem into multiple binary sub-problems disposed in a binary tree. This approach requires a binary partition of the classes for each node of the tree, which defines the tree structure. This paper presents two algorithms to determine the tree structure taking into account information collected from the used dataset. This approach allows the tree structure to be determined automatically for any multiclass dataset.

Adapting mode switches into the hierarchical scheduling

Mode switches are used to partition the system’s behavior into different modes to reduce the complexity of large embedded systems. Such systems operate in multiple modes in which each one corresponds to a specific application scenario; these are called Multi-Mode Systems (MMS). A different piece of software is normally executed for each mode. At any given time, the system can be in one of the predefined modes and then be switched to another as a result of a certain condition. A mode switch mechanism (or mode change protocol) is used to shift the system from one mode to another at run-time. In this thesis we have used a hierarchical scheduling framework to implement a multi-mode system called Multi-Mode Hierarchical Scheduling Framework (MMHSF). A two-level Hierarchical Scheduling Framework (HSF) has already been implemented in an open source real-time operating system, FreeRTOS, to support temporal isolation among real-time components. The main contribution of this thesis is the extension of the HSF featuring a multimode feature with an emphasis on making minimal changes in the underlying operating system (FreeRTOS) and its HSF implementation. Our implementation uses fixed-priority preemptive scheduling at both local and global scheduling levels and idling periodic servers. It also now supports different modes of the system which can be switched at run-time. Each subsystem and task exhibit different timing attributes according to mode, and upon a Mode Change Request (MCR) the task-set and timing interfaces of the entire system (including subsystems and tasks) undergo a change. A Mode Change Protocol specifies precisely how the system-mode will be changed. However, an application may not only need to change a mode but also a different mode change protocol semantic. For example, the mode change from normal to shutdown can allow all the tasks to be completed before the mode itself is changed, while changing a mode from normal to emergency may require aborting all tasks instantly. In our work, both the system mode and the mode change protocol can be changed at run-time. We have implemented three different mode change protocols to switch from one mode to another: the Suspend/resume protocol, the Abort protocol, and the Complete protocol. These protocols increase the flexibility of the system, allowing users to select the way they want to switch to a new mode. The implementation of MMHSF is tested and evaluated on an AVR-based 32 bit board EVK1100 with an AVR32UC3A0512 micro-controller. We have tested the behavior of each system mode and for each mode change protocol. We also provide the results for the performance measures of all mode change protocols in the thesis. RESUMEN Los conmutadores de modo son usados para particionar el comportamiento del sistema en diferentes modos, reduciendo así la complejidad de grandes sistemas empotrados. Estos sistemas tienen multiples modos de operación, cada uno de ellos correspondiente a distintos escenarios y para distintas aplicaciones; son llamados Sistemas Multimodales (o en inglés “Multi-Mode Systems” o MMS). Normalmente cada modo ejecuta una parte de código distinto. En un momento dado el sistema, que está en un modo concreto, puede ser cambiado a otro modo distinto como resultado de alguna condicion impuesta previamente. Los mecanismos de cambio de modo (o protocolos de cambio de modo) son usados para mover el sistema de un modo a otro durante el tiempo de ejecución. En este trabajo se ha usado un modelo de sistema operativo para implementar un sistema multimodo llamado MMHSF, siglas en inglés correspondientes a (Multi-Mode Hierarchical Scheduling Framework). Este sistema está basado en el HSF (Hierarchical Scheduling Framework), un modelo de sistema operativo con jerarquía de dos niveles, implementado en un sistema operativo en tiempo real de libre distribución llamado FreeRTOS, capaz de permitir el aislamiento temporal entre componentes. La principal contribución de este trabajo es la ampliación del HSF convirtiendolo en un sistema multimodo realizando los cambios mínimos necesarios sobre el sistema operativo FreeRTOS y la implementación ya existente del HSF. Esta implementación usa un sistema de planificación de prioridad fija para ambos niveles de jerarquía, ocupando el tiempo entre tareas con un “modo reposo”. Además el sistema es capaz de cambiar de un modo a otro en tiempo de ejecución. Cada subsistema y tarea son capaces de tener distintos atributos de tiempo (prioridad, periodo y tiempo de ejecución) en función del modo. Bajo una demanda de cambio de modo (Mode Change Request MCR) se puede variar el set de tareas en ejecución, así como los atributos de los servidores y las tareas. Un protocolo de cambio de modo espeficica precisamente cómo será cambiado el sistema de un modo a otro. Sin embargo una aplicación puede requerir no solo un cambio de modo, sino que lo haga de una forma especifica. Por ejemplo, el cambio de modo de “normal” a “apagado” puede permitir a las tareas en ejecución ser finalizadas antes de que se complete la transición, pero sin embargo el cambio de “normal” a “emergencia” puede requerir abortar todas las tareas instantaneamente. En este trabajo ambas características, tanto el modo como el protocolo de cambio, pueden ser cambiadas en tiempo de ejecución, pero deben ser previamente definidas por el desarrollador. Han sido definidos tres protocolos de cambios: el protocolo “suspender/continuar”, protocolo “abortar” y el protocolo “completar”. Estos protocolos incrementan la flexibilidad del sistema, permitiendo al usuario seleccionar de que forma quieren cambiar hacia el nuevo modo. La implementación del MMHSF ha sido testada y evaluada en una placa AVR EVK1100, con un micro-controlador AVR32UC3A0. Se ha comprobado el comportamiento de los distintos modos para los distintos protocolos, definidos previamente. Como resultado se proporcionan las medidades de rendimiento de los distintos protocolos de cambio de modo.

Improving the Traversal of Large Hierarchical Process Repositories

Business Process Management (BPM) has increased in popularity and maturity in recent years. Large enterprises engage use process management approaches to model, manage and refine repositories of process models that detail the whole enterprise. These process models can run to the thousands in number, and may contain large hierarchies of tasks and control structures that become cumbersome to maintain. Tools are therefore needed to effectively traverse this process model space in an efficient manner, otherwise the repositories remain hard to use, and thus are lowered in their effectiveness. In this paper we analyse a range of BPM tools for their effectiveness in handling large process models. We establish that the present set of commercial tools is lacking in key areas regarding visualisation of, and interaction with, large process models. We then present six tool functionalities for the development of advanced business process visualisation and interaction, presenting a design for a tool that will exploit the latest advances in 2D and 3D computer graphics to enable fast and efficient search, traversal and modification of process models.

Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: Application of hierarchical binomial logistic models

It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.

Hierarchical fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction

Traffic control at road junctions is one of the major concerns in most metropolitan cities. Controllers of various approaches are available and the required control action is the effective green-time assigned to each traffic stream within a traffic-light cycle. The application of fuzzy logic provides the controller with the capability to handle uncertain natures of the system, such as drivers’ behaviour and random arrivals of vehicles. When turning traffic is allowed at the junction, the number of phases in the traffic-light cycle increases. The additional input variables inevitably complicate the controller and hence slow down the decision-making process, which is critical in this real-time control problem. In this paper, a hierarchical fuzzy logic controller is proposed to tackle this traffic control problem at a 2-way road junction with turning traffic. The two levels of fuzzy logic controllers devise the minimum effective green-time and fine-tune it respectively at each phase of a traffic-light cycle. The complexity of the controller at each level is reduced with smaller rule-set. The performance of this hierarchical controller is examined by comparison with a fixed-time controller under various traffic conditions. Substantial delay reduction has been achieved as a result and the performance and limitation of the controller will be discussed.

Hierarchical fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction using genetic algorithms

Traffic control at a road junction by a complex fuzzy logic controller is investigated. The increase in the complexity of junction means more number of input variables must be taken into account, which will increase the number of fuzzy rules in the system. A hierarchical fuzzy logic controller is introduced to reduce the number of rules. Besides, the increase in the complexity of the controller makes formulation of the fuzzy rules difficult. A genetic algorithm based off-line leaning algorithm is employed to generate the fuzzy rules. The learning algorithm uses constant flow-rates as training sets. The system is tested by both constant and time-varying flow-rates. Simulation results show that the proposed controller produces lower average delay than a fixed-time controller does under various traffic conditions.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Three-dimensional printing of hierarchical and tough mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds with a controllable pore architecture, excellent mechanical strength and mineralization ability

New-generation biomaterials for bone regenerations should be highly bioactive, resorbable and mechanically strong. Mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG), as a novel bioactive material, has been used for the study of bone regeneration due to its excellent bioactivity, degradation and drug-delivery ability; however, how to construct a 3D MBG scaffold (including other bioactive inorganic scaffolds) for bone regeneration still maintains a significant challenge due to its/their inherit brittleness and low strength. In this brief communication, we reported a new facile method to prepare hierarchical and multifunctional MBG scaffolds with controllable pore architecture, excellent mechanical strength and mineralization ability for bone regeneration application by a modified 3D-printing technique using polyvinylalcohol (PVA), as a binder. The method provides a new way to solve the commonly existing issues for inorganic scaffold materials, for example, uncontrollable pore architecture, low strength, high brittleness and the requirement for the second sintering at high temperature. The obtained 3D-printing MBG scaffolds possess a high mechanical strength which is about 200 times for that of traditional polyurethane foam template-resulted MBG scaffolds. They have highly controllable pore architecture, excellent apatite-mineralization ability and sustained drug-delivery property. Our study indicates that the 3D-printed MBG scaffolds may be an excellent candidate for bone regeneration.