Asymptotic Distribution of a Simple Linear Estimator for VARMA Models in Echelon Form

In this paper, we study the asymptotic distribution of a simple two-stage (Hannan-Rissanen-type) linear estimator for stationary invertible vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models in the echelon form representation. General conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality are given. A consistent estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator is also provided, so that tests and confidence intervals can easily be constructed.

Inférence exacte simulée et techniques d'estimation dans les modèles VAR et VARMA avec applications macroéconomiques

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Fonetiikan perussanasto / Antti Iivonen, Mari Horppila, Miika Heikkonen, Olli Rissanen

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Contribution of thickened drinks, food and enteral and parenteral fluids to fluid intake in hospitalised patients with dysphagia

Background Studies amongst older people with acute dysphagic stroke requiring thickened fluids have assessed fluid intakes from combinations of beverage, food, enteral and parenteral sources, but not all sources simultaneously. The study aimed to comprehensively assess total water intake from food, beverages, enteral and parenteral sources amongst dysphagic adult in-patients receiving thickened fluids. Methods Patients requiring thickened fluid following dysphagia diagnosis were recruited consecutively from a tertiary teaching hospital’s medical and neurosurgical wards. Fluid intake from food and beverages was assessed by wastage, direct observation and quantified from enteral and parenteral sources through clinical medical records. Results No patients achieved their calculated fluid requirements unless enteral or parenteral fluids were received. The mean daily fluid intake from food was greater than from beverages whether receiving diet alone (food 807±363mL, food and beverages 370±179mL, p<0.001) or diet with enteral or parenteral fluid support (food 455±408mL, food and beverages 263±232mL, p<0.001). Greater daily fluid intakes occurred when receiving enteral and parenteral fluid in addition to oral dietary intake, irrespective of age group, whether assistance was required, diagnosis and whether stage 3 or stage 2 thickened fluids were required (p<0.05). After enteral and parenteral sources, food provided the most important contribution to daily fluid intakes. Conclusions The greatest contribution to oral fluid intake was from food, not beverages. Designing menus and food services which promote and encourage the enjoyment of fluid dense foods, in contrast to thickened beverages, may present an important way to improve fluid intakes of those with dysphagia. Supplemental enteral or parenteral fluid may be necessary to achieve minimum calculated fluid requirements.

Prison foodservice in Australia : systems, menus and inmate attitudes

This paper presents results from three studies in 25 custodial facilities in three Australian states, including nutrient analyses of menus and focus groups exploring inmate attitudes. Both cook-fresh and cook-chill production systems are used. Non-selective cycle menus of 4-6 weeks are common but inmates can supplement meals by purchase of additional food items (‘buy-ups’). Menus included adequate variety and met most nutritional standards, with the possible exception of fruit. The sodium content of menus is above recommended levels. Protein, fibre, vitamins A, C, thiamin, riboflavin, calcium, iron and zinc were more than adequate, and the percentage energy from fat is close to or meets national recommendations. Focus groups identified 16 themes, including meal quality, food available at ‘buy-ups’, cooking facilities, and concerns about possible food safety risks associated with inmates storing food in cells. Many complaints were about factors not under the control of the foodservice manager.

Education-to-work transitions of aspiring creatives

Despite some segments of the creative industries in Australia performing better than other segments in terms of earnings and employment growth, they all rely on highly skilled workers and face similar workforce challenges. Workers typically experience multiple entry attempts, spells of unemployment, short-term contracts, high degrees of mobility, casual/part-time employment within and outside the creative industries, and pressure to ensure their skills remain relevant. Skills shortages and gaps, an insufficient supply of high quality industry-ready graduates, difficulties in predicting demand for skills, weak linkages between industry and education providers, reliance on overseas talent in some segments, limited opportunities for workers to engage in skill development, and pressure on workers to keep abreast of technological developments are ongoing issues in the creative industries workforce. In response to these concerns, the Australian Research Council, three State Governments, industry, and a large vocational education and training (VET) provider funded Queensland University of Technology (QUT) to conduct the 60Sox project. This three-year project investigated the education, training, and work experiences of aspiring creatives defined as new entrants, recent graduates, and students enrolled in creative industries courses. It involved the largest survey of aspiring creatives ever undertaken in Australia, attracting 507 respondents, and a survey of 50 employers. Using the framework proposed by Hannan, Raffe, and Smyth (1996), this article presents findings from an analysis of the macro and micro labour market outcomes of aspiring creatives using data from the two 60Sox project surveys and publicly available sources. The analysis confirmed that many graduates of creative industries courses who participated in the 60Sox survey and the national surveys for the National Centre for Vocational Education Research and Graduate Careers Australia were struggling to make a successful transition from education to work. This article also discusses the causes of this key finding and possible solutions to address transition issues.

Improving the performance of model-order selection criteria by partial-model selection search

The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.

Prisons, dietetic services, research and training : win win

Learning Outcome: Gain knowledge in the area of dietetic training in Australia and the benefits of collaborative partnerships between government and universities to achieve improvements in dietetic service delivery, evidenced based practice, and student placements. Prisoners have high rates of chronic disease, however dietetic services and research in this sector is limited. Securing high quality professional practice placements for dietetic training in Australia is competitive, and prisons provide exciting opportunities. Queensland University of Technology (QUT) has a unique twenty year partnership with Queensland Corrective Services (QCS) with a service learning model placing final year dietetic students within prisons. Building on this partnership, in 2007 a new joint position was funded to establish dietetic services to over 5500 prisoners and support viable best practice dietetic education. Evaluation of the past three years of this partnership has shown an expansion of QUT student placements in Queensland prisons, with a third of final year students each undertaking 120 hours of foodservice management practicum. Student evaluations of placement over this period are much higher than the University average. Through the joint position student projects have been targeted on strategic areas to support nutrition and dietetic policy and practice. Projects have been broadened from menu reviews to more comprehensive quality improvement and dietetic research activities, with all student learning activities transferrable to other foodservice settings. Student practice in the prisons has been extended beyond foodservice management to include group education and dietetic counseling. For QCS, student placements have equated to close to a full-time dietitian position, with nutrition policy now being implemented as an outcome of this support. This innovative partnership has achieved a sustainable student placement model, supported research, whilst delivering dietetic services to a difficult to access group. Funding Disclosure: None

Emerging themes in dietetic competency

Determining entry level competency of new graduates, as they transition from university to practice is not always black and white. Holistic competency emerges as acculturation and experience develops in the workplace. This project, funded by the Dietitians Association Australia (DAA), aimed to develop tools to guide the assessment process. Range variable statements and evidence guides were developed to inform the assessment of DAA Entry Level Competency Standards (ELCS) at university and to define the core fields of study required in Australian university curricula for university accreditation and international benchmarking purposes. Range variables contextualise competency by defining the boundaries for competency and the associated performance criteria. Evidence guides provide the range of contexts and critical aspects of competency which would usually be assessed together. Core fields of study defi ne the underpinning knowledge and skills required in the curriculum to achieve competency. Draft range variable statements and evidence guides were developed against each of the units and elements of the ELCS. Two rounds of consultation occurred with the fourteen Australian universities undertaking dietetic education and the project management committee, via teleconference and email. Core fi elds of study were informed by these consultations, as well as interviews of new graduates about core activities undertaken in their workplace. The final versions of these documents were presented to the project management committee, the Australian Dietetic Council and the DAA Board to be integrated into the DAA Accreditation Manual and website information.