Using a panel structure to discuss the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in developing countries

The purpose of this paper is to test the implications of current account solvency for the savinginvestment correlation in developing countries. Since solvency is a long-run phenomenon, and given that the power of the standard unit root and cointegration tests is low, we exploit the panel structure of the sample of 29 developing countries. We find evidence that saving and investment are cointegrated and that the current account is stationary. Therefore, the Feldstein-Horioka correlations are not a puzzle in the sense they reflect the intertemporal budget constraint. The same results are obtained for different subsamples (Africa, Asia, and Latin America) and for different periods of time (1960-74 and 1975-96). We, then, suggest that an error correction model should distinguish between the long-run correlation, which reflects the solvency condition, and the short-run correlation, which could measure capital mobility.

Application de l'hypothèse Feldstein-Horioka aux pays en développement - période 1960-1998.

Rapport de recherche

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

The international impact of productivity shocks

Even though many studies have confirmed the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) finding that savings and investment rates are highly correlated, there is no consensus on the major reason for this correlation. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop theoretical models and calibrate and simulate these to compare their implications to explain the observed time-series comovement between savings and investment in an attempt to show that this high correlation may stem from technological shocks.^ The dissertation is comprised of three studies. The first two studies construct overlapping-generations, two-economy models of saving and investment under conditions of perfect international capital mobility. The second study differs from the first by endogenizing the labor supply. Employing simulations, the models are used to generate time-series for savings and investment. These are then compared with the actual data for specific economies. The models show that productivity shocks produce a high correlation between savings and investment. Further, while the model with exogenous labor supply displays monotonic adjustment, the economy with endogenous labor supply adjusts cyclically.^ The third model, on the other hand, constructs a general equilibrium model for a small open economy. The study is based on two important elements: adjustment costs in investment and endogenous, recursive time preferences. Again, the simulation results show that the model generates, at least in a significant part of the adjustment path, a positive correlation between domestic savings and investment in response to a supply shock. ^

The missing puzzle : birth of a format

The art of storytelling is one of the oldest forms of creative discourse. Apart from finding stories, the most important job in television is the construction of stories to have a broad audience appeal. This first-hand review of Missing Persons Unit, hereafter referred to as MPU, a prime time program on the Nine Network in Australia with immense audience appeal, is an original work by the executive producer (development and series producer Series One, executive producer Series Two and Three) based on an overview of two-and-a-half years of production on three series. Through a case study approach, this Masters project explores how story is constructed into a television format. The thesis comprises two parts: the creative component (weighted 50%) is demonstrated through two programs of MPU (one program for evaluation) and the academic component through a written exegesis (50%). This case study aims to demonstrate how observational hybrid series such as MPU can be managed to quick turn-around schedules with precise skill sets that cut across a number of traditional genre styles. With the advent of radio and then television, storytelling found a home and a series of labels called genres to help place them in a schedule for listeners and viewers to choose. Over recent years, with the advent of digital technology and the rush to collect the masses of content required to feed the growing television slate, storytelling has often been replaced by story gathering. Today even in factual series where a clear story construct is important, third party ‘quick fix’ specialists are hired to shape raw content shot by a field team, who never put their own work together and may never come into the edit suite during a project. This thesis explores the art of storytelling in fast turn-around television. In particular it explores the layer cake approach used in the production process of MPU, that enables producers of fast turn-around television to shepherd their own stories from field through to post-production. While each new hybrid series will require its own particular sets of skills, the exploration of the genesis of MPU will demonstrate the building blocks required to successfully produce this type of factual series. This study is also intended as a ‘road map’ for producers who wish to develop similar series.

Play a role in the patent puzzle

Discusses the contentious issues surrounding computer software patents and patenting in connection with the Peer-to-Patent Australia project, a joint initiative of Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and New York Law School (NYLS) that operates with the support and endorsement of IP Australia, the government body housing Australia's patent office. Explains that the project is based on the successful Peer-to-Patent pilots run recently in the USA and Japan that are designed to improve the quality of issued patents and the patent examination process by facilitating community participation in that process. Describes how members of the public are allowed to put forward prior art references that will be considered by IP Australia's patent examiners when determining whether participating applications are novel and inventive, and therefore deserving of a patent. Concludes that, while Peer-to-Patent Australia is not a complete solution to the problems besetting patent law, the model has considerable advantages over the traditional model of patent examination

The impact of holding costs in the housing affordability puzzle

Research is now emerging which exposes the significance and extent to which even small shifts in the regulatory assessment period, and other factors, affect housing affordability. It suggests that the extent of its significance has not been hitherto completely demonstrated.

Piecing together an integrative taxonomic puzzle: microsatellite, wing shape and aedeagus length analyses of Bactrocera dorsalis s.l. (Diptera: Tephritidae) find no evidence of multiple lineages in a proposed contact zone along the Thai/Malay Peninsula

Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and B. papayae Drew & Hancock represent a closely related sibling species pair for which the biological species limits are unclear; i.e., it is uncertain if they are truely two biological species, or one biological species which has been incorrectly taxonomically split. The geographic ranges of the two taxa are thought to abut or overlap on or around the Isthmus of Kra, a recognised biogeographic barrier located on the narrowest portion of the Thai Peninsula. We collected fresh material of B. dorsalis sensu lato (i.e., B. dorsalis sensu stricto + B. papayae) in a north-south transect down the Thai Peninsula, from areas regarded as being exclusively B. dorsalis s.s., across the Kra Isthmus, and into regions regarded as exclusively B. papayae. We carried out microsatellite analyses and took measurements of male genitalia and wing shape. Both the latter morphological tests have been used previously to separate these two taxa. No significant population structuring was found in the microsatellite analysis and results were consistent with an interpretation of one, predominantly panmictic population. Both morphological datasets showed consistent, clinal variation along the transect, with no evidence for disjunction. No evidence in any tests supported historical vicariance driven by the Isthmus of Kra, and none of the three datasets supported the current taxonomy of two species. Rather, within and across the area of range overlap or abutment between the two species, only continuous morphological and genetic variation was recorded. Recognition that morphological traits previously used to separate these taxa are continuous, and that there is no genetic evidence for population segregation in the region of suspected species overlap, is consistent with a growing body of literature that reports no evidence of biological differentiation between these taxa.

Brothers in arms – An experiment on the alliance puzzle

The generic alliance game considers players in an alliance who fight against an external enemy. After victory, the alliance may break up, and its members may fight against each other over the spoils of the victory. Our experimental analysis of this game shows: In-group solidarity vanishes after the break-up of the alliance. Former ‘brothers in arms’ fight even more vigorously against each other than strangers do. Furthermore, this vigorous internal fighting is anticipated and reduces the ability of the alliance to mobilize the joint fighting effort, compared to a situation in which victorious alliance members share the spoils of victory equally and peacefully

Exosomes in prostate cancer: Putting together the pieces of a puzzle

Exosomes have been shown to act as mediators for cell to cell communication and as a potential source of biomarkers for many diseases, including prostate cancer. Exosomes are nanosized vesicles secreted by cells and consist of proteins normally found in multivesicular bodies, RNA, DNA and lipids. As a potential source of biomarkers, exosomes have attracted considerable attention, as their protein content resembles that of their cells of origin, even though it is noted that the proteins, miRNAs and lipids found in the exosomes are not a reflective stoichiometric sampling of the contents from the parent cells. While the biogenesis of exosomes in dendritic cells and platelets has been extensively characterized, much less is known about the biogenesis of exosomes in cancer cells. An understanding of the processes involved in prostate cancer will help to further elucidate the role of exosomes and other extracellular vesicles in prostate cancer progression and metastasis. There are few methodologies available for general isolation of exosomes, however validation of those methodologies is necessary to study the role of exosomal-derived biomarkers in various diseases. In this review, we discuss “exosomes” as a member of the family of extracellular vesicles and their potential to provide candidate biomarkers for prostate cancer.

Crossword puzzle attack on NLS

NLS is one of the stream ciphers submitted to the eSTREAM project. We present a distinguishing attack on NLS by Crossword Puzzle (CP) attack method which is introduced in this paper. We build the distinguisher by using linear approximations of both the non-linear feedback shift register (NFSR) and the nonlinear filter function (NLF). Since the bias of the distinguisher depends on the Konst value, which is a key-dependent word, we present the graph showing how the bias of distinguisher vary with Konst. In result, we estimate the bias of the distinguisher to be around O(2^−30). Therefore, we claim that NLS is distinguishable from truly random cipher after observing O(2^60) keystream words. The experiments also show that our distinguishing attack is successful on 90.3% of Konst among 2^32 possible values. We extend the CP attack to NLSv2 which is a tweaked version of NLS. In result, we build a distinguisher which has the bias of around 2− 48. Even though this attack is below the eSTREAM criteria (2^−40), the security margin of NLSv2 seems to be too low.

Multiple modular additions and crossword puzzle attack on NLSv2

NLS is a stream cipher which was submitted to the eSTREAM project. A linear distinguishing attack against NLS was presented by Cho and Pieprzyk, which was called Crossword Puzzle (CP) attack. NLSv2 is a tweak version of NLS which aims mainly at avoiding the CP attack. In this paper, a new distinguishing attack against NLSv2 is presented. The attack exploits high correlation amongst neighboring bits of the cipher. The paper first shows that the modular addition preserves pairwise correlations as demonstrated by existence of linear approximations with large biases. Next, it shows how to combine these results with the existence of high correlation between bits 29 and 30 of the S-box to obtain a distinguisher whose bias is around 2^−37. Consequently, we claim that NLSv2 is distinguishable from a random cipher after observing around 2^74 keystream words.

Piecing the puzzle together : enhancing the quality of road trauma surveillance through linkage of police and health data

This program of research linked police and health data collections to investigate the potential benefits for road safety in terms of enhancing the quality of data. This research has important implications for road safety because, although police collected data has historically underpinned efforts in the area, it is known that many road crashes are not reported to police and that these data lack specific injury severity information. This research shows that data linkage provides a more accurate quantification of the severity and prevalence of road crash injuries which is essential for: prioritising funding; targeting interventions; and estimating the burden and cost of road trauma.

A framework for analysing creative activity within puzzle-game play experiences

This thesis is an analyzing creative processes that can be fostered through computer gaming. Outcomes from the research build on our knowledge of how computer games foster creative thinking. The research proposes guidelines that build upon our understanding of the relationship between the creative processes that players undertake during a game and the components of the game that allow these processes to occur. These guidelines may be used in the game design process to better facilitate creative gameplay activity. A significant research contribution is the ability to create games that facilitate creative thinking through engaging interactions with technology.