Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields: The Fed Model Approach

Prediction of the stock market valuation is a common interest to all market participants. Theoretically sound market valuation can be achieved by discounting future earnings of equities to present. Competing valuation models seek to find variables that affect the equity market valuation in a way that the market valuation can be explained and also variables that could be used to predict market valuation. In this paper we test the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, forward looking earnings and long-term government bond yields. We test this so-called Fed model in a long- and short-term time series analysis. In order to test the dynamics of the relationship, we use the cointegration framework. The data used in this study spans over four decades of various market conditions between 1964-2007, using data from United States. The empirical results of our analysis do not give support for the Fed model. We are able to show that the long-term government bonds do not play statistically significant role in this relationship. The effect of forward earnings yield on the stock market prices is significant and thus we suggest the use of standard valuation ratios when trying to predict the future paths of equity prices. Also, changes in the long-term government bond yields do not have significant short-term impact on stock prices.

The Fed Model: International Analysis

The Fed model is a widely used market valuation model. It is often used only on market analysis of the S&P 500 index as a shorthand measure for the attractiveness of equity, and as a timing device for allocating funds between equity and bonds. The Fed model assumes a fixed relationship between bond yield and earnings yield. This relationship is often assumed to be true in market valuation. In this paper we test the Fed model from historical perspective on the European markets. The markets of the United States are also includedfor comparison. The purpose of the tests is to determine if the Fed model and the underlying assumptions come true on different markets. The various tests are made on time-series data ranging from the year 1973 to the end of the year 2008. The statistical methods used are regressions analysis, cointegration analysis and Granger causality. The empirical results do not give strong support for the Fed model. The underlying relationships assumed by the Fed model are statistically not valid in most of the markets examined and therefore the model is not valid in valuation purposes generally. The results vary between the different markets which gives reason to suspect the general use of the Fed model in different market conditions and in different markets.

Characterization of an in vitro fed-batch model to obtain cells released from S. epidermidis biofilms

Both dynamic and fed-batch systems have been used for the study of biofilms. Dynamic systems, whose hallmark is the presence of continuous flow, have been considered the most appropriate for the study of the last stage of the biofilm lifecycle: biofilm disassembly. However, fed-batch is still the most used system in the biofilm research field. Hence, we have used a fed-batch system to collect cells released from Staphylococcus epidermidis biofilms, one of the most important etiological agents of medical device-associated biofilm infections. Herein, we showed that using this model it was possible to collect cells released from biofilms formed by 12 different S. epidermidis clinical and commensal isolates. In addition, our data indicated that biofilm disassembly occurred by both passive and active mechanisms, although the last occurred to a lesser extent. Moreover, it was observed that S. epidermidis biofilm-released cells presented higher tolerance to vancomycin and tetracycline, as well as a particular gene expression phenotype when compared with either biofilm or planktonic cells. Using this model, biofilm-released cells phenotype and their interaction with the host immune system could be studied in more detail, which could help providing significant insights into the pathophysiology of biofilm-related infections.

Hybrid model of a double-fed induction machine and back-to-back converter

This report details the port interconnection of two subsystems: a power electronics subsystem (a back-to-back AC/AC converter (B2B), coupled to a phase of the power grid), and an electromechanical subsystem (a doubly-fed induction machine (DFIM), coupled mechanically to a flywheel and electrically to the power grid and to a local varying load). Both subsystems have been essentially described in previous reports (deliverables D 0.5 and D 4.3.1), although some previously unpublished details are presented here. The B2B is a variable structure system (VSS), due to the presence of control-actuated switches: however from a modelling and simulation, as well as a control-design, point of view, it is sensible to consider modulated transformers (MTF in the bond-graph language) instead of the pairs of complementary switches. The port-Hamiltonian models of both subsystems are presents and coupled through a power-preserving interconnection, and the Hamiltonian description of the whole system is obtained; detailed bond-graphs of all the subsystems and the complete system are provided.

The dead core model applied to beads with immobilized cells in a fed-batch cephalosporin C production bioprocess

Viable cells immobilized in inert supports are currently studied for a wide range of bioprocesses. The intrinsic advantages of such systems over suspended cultures incite new research, including studies on fundamental aspects as well as on the industrial viability of these non-conventional processes. In aerobic culture of filamentous fungi, scale-up is hindered by oxygen mass transfer limitation through the support material and bioprocess kinetics must be studied together with mass transfer limitation. In this work, experimental and simulated data of cephalosporin C production were compared. Concentrations in the bulk fermentation medium and cellular mass profiles inside the bioparticles are focused. Immobilized cells were used in a tower bioreactor, operated in fed-batch mode. To describe the radial variation of oxygen concentration within the pellet, a dead core model was used. Despite the extremely low sugar concentrations, bioreaction rates in the pellets were limited by the dissolved oxygen concentration. Cell growth occurs only in the outer layers, a result also confirmed by scanning electron microscopy. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of probiotic Lactobacillus gasseri strains of breast-fed infant in a murine model

The ingestion of probiotic lactic acid bacteria has been evaluated and noted that it has an effect on the balance of desirable microbiota in the gastrointestinal tract. Lactobacillus gasseri demonstrates good survival in the gastrointestinal tract, and it has been associated with a variety of probiotic activities and roles, including the reduction of fecal mutagenic enzymes, the production of bacteriocins and the stimulation of macrophages immunomodulation. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effects of a pool of L. gasseri strains isolated from the feces of breastfed infants added in the human milk of healthy women. The milk was both pasteurized and unpasteurized, to verify the cell cytotoxicity of macrophages and to quantify the production of immunologic mediators such as IL-4, IL-6, IFN-g, TNF-a, NO and oxygen intermediary compounds (H2O2). The administration of raw human milk and pasteurized human milk to infants is a regular, encouraged practice in units of intensive therapy (UITs) and our present investigation verified the beneficial effect of addition of a pool of L. gasseri to pasteurized human milk (PHML). Our results show that probiotic supplementation helped to maintain cell viability, reduced IL-6 and IFN-γ production and stimulated TNF-α, NO, H2O2, IL-4 production. Nevertheless, the results indicate that the addition of lactobacillus to human milk was not a determinant in the production of TNF-α. L. gasseri added to breast milk did not present a cytotoxic risk, and the addition of L. gasseri to pasteurized milk of human milk bank would benefit newborns that depend on milk banks for the colonization of more desirable microbiota.

Operator, organizational, direct support, and general support maintenance manual : printing press, offset, web-fed, motor driven, 208V, 60 hertz, Hess and Barker model 3CX, FSN 3610-617-7566.

Includes index.

Direct support, general support, and depot maintenance repair parts and special tools lists : welding machine, arc, AC/DC, 300 amp, transformer rectifier, constant current, base mounted (Eutectic Corp. model MD301 FED), FSN 3431-235-4728.

"October 1971."

Operator, organizational, direct support and general support maintenance manual : welding machine, ARC, AC/DC, 300 AMP, transformer rectifier, constant current, base mounted (Eutectic Corp. model MD301 FED) FSN 3431-235-4728.

Includes index.

Operator, organizational, direct support, and general support maintenance manual : welding machine, arc, AC/DC, 300 amp, transformer rectifier, constant current, base mounted (Eutectic Corp. model MD301 FED), FSN 3431-235-4728.

"September 1970."

IMPROVEMENTS IN SUSTAINABILITY OF GRAVITY-FED WATER SYSTEMS IN THE COMARCA NGÄBE-BUGLÉ, PANAMA: SPRING CAPTURES AND CIRCUIT RIDER MODEL

Gravity-flow aqueducts are used to bring clean water from mountain springs in the Comarca Ngäbe-Buglé, Panama, to the homes of the indigenous people who reside there. Spring captures enclose a spring to direct the flow of water into the transmission line. Seepage contact springs are most common, with water appearing above either hard basalt bedrock or a dense clay layer. Spring flows vary dramatically during wet and dry seasons, and discharge points of springs can shift, sometimes enough to impact the capture structure and its ability to properly collect all of the available water. Traditionally, spring captures are concrete boxes. The spring boxes observed by the author were dilapidated or out of alignment with the spring itself, only capturing part of the discharge. An improved design approach was developed that mimics the terrain surrounding the spring source to address these issues. Over the course of a year, three different spring sites were evaluated, and spring captures were designed and constructed based on the new approach. Spring flow data from each case study demonstrate increased flow capture in the improved structures. Rural water systems, including spring captures, can be sustainably maintained by the Circuit Rider model, a technical support system in which technical assistance is provided for the operation of the water systems. During 2012-2013, the author worked as a Circuit Rider and facilitated a water system improvement project while exploring methods of community empowerment to increase the capacity for system maintenance. Based on these experiences, recommendations are provided to expand the Circuit Rider model in the Comarca Ngäbe-Buglé under the Panamanian Ministry of Health’s Water and Sanitation Project (PASAP)

Enhanced Glucose-induced Intracellular Signaling Promotes Insulin Hypersecretion: Pancreatic Beta-cell Functional Adaptations In A Model Of Genetic Obesity And Prediabetes.

Obesity is associated with insulin resistance and is known to be a risk factor for type-2 diabetes. In obese individuals, pancreatic beta-cells try to compensate for the increased insulin demand in order to maintain euglycemia. Most studies have reported that this adaptation is due to morphological changes. However, the involvement of beta-cell functional adaptations in this process needs to be clarified. For this purpose, we evaluated different key steps in the glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS) in intact islets from female ob/ob obese mice and lean controls. Obese mice showed increased body weight, insulin resistance, hyperinsulinemia, glucose intolerance and fed hyperglycemia. Islets from ob/ob mice exhibited increased glucose-induced mitochondrial activity, reflected by enhanced NAD(P)H production and mitochondrial membrane potential hyperpolarization. Perforated patch-clamp examination of beta-cells within intact islets revealed several alterations in the electrical activity such as increased firing frequency and higher sensitivity to low glucose concentrations. A higher intracellular Ca(2+) mobilization in response to glucose was also found in ob/ob islets. Additionally, they displayed a change in the oscillatory pattern and Ca(2+) signals at low glucose levels. Capacitance experiments in intact islets revealed increased exocytosis in individual ob/ob beta-cells. All these up-regulated processes led to increased GSIS. In contrast, we found a lack of beta-cell Ca(2+) signal coupling, which could be a manifestation of early defects that lead to beta-cell malfunction in the progression to diabetes. These findings indicate that beta-cell functional adaptations are an important process in the compensatory response to obesity.

Are skeletally mature female rats a suitable model to study osteoporosis?

OBJECTIVE: To analyze if female Wistar rats at 56 weeks of age are a suitable model to study osteoporosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Female rats with 6 and 36 weeks of age (n = 8 per group) were kept over a 20-week period and fed a diet for mature rodents complete in terms of Ca, phosphorous, and vitamin D. Excised femurs were measured for bone mass using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, morphometry, and biomechanical properties. The following serum mar-kers of bone metabolism were analyzed: parathyroid hormone (PTH), osteocalcin (OC), osteoprotegerin (OPG), receptor activator of nuclear factor Κappa B ligand (RANKL), C-terminal peptides of type I collagen (CTX-I), total calcium, and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity. RESULTS: Rats at 56 weeks of age showed important bone metabolism differences when compared with the younger group, such as, highest diaphysis energy to failure, lowest levels of OC, CTX-I, and ALP, and elevated PTH, even with adequate dietary Ca. CONCLUSION: Rats at 26-week-old rats may be too young to study age-related bone loss, whereas the 56-week-old rats may be good models to represent the early stages of age-related changes in bone metabolism.

Simvastatin-induced cardiac autonomic control improvement in fructose-fed female rats

OBJECTIVE: Because autonomic dysfunction has been found to lead to cardiometabolic disorders and because studies have reported that simvastatin treatment has neuroprotective effects, the objective of the present study was to investigate the effects of simvastatin treatment on cardiovascular and autonomic changes in fructose-fed female rats. METHODS: Female Wistar rats were divided into three groups: controls (n=8), fructose (n=8), and fructose+ simvastatin (n=8). Fructose overload was induced by supplementing the drinking water with fructose (100 mg/L, 18 wks). Simvastatin treatment (5 mg/kg/day for 2 wks) was performed by gavage. The arterial pressure was recorded using a data acquisition system. Autonomic control was evaluated by pharmacological blockade. RESULTS: Fructose overload induced an increase in the fasting blood glucose and triglyceride levels and insulin resistance. The constant rate of glucose disappearance during the insulin intolerance test was reduced in the fructose group (3.4+ 0.32%/min) relative to that in the control group (4.4+ 0.29%/min). Fructose+simvastatin rats exhibited increased insulin sensitivity (5.4+0.66%/min). The fructose and fructose+simvastatin groups demonstrated an increase in the mean arterial pressure compared with controls rats (fructose: 124+2 mmHg and fructose+simvastatin: 126 + 3 mmHg vs. controls: 112 + 2 mmHg). The sympathetic effect was enhanced in the fructose group (73 + 7 bpm) compared with that in the control (48 + 7 bpm) and fructose+simvastatin groups (31+8 bpm). The vagal effect was increased in fructose+simvastatin animals (84 + 7 bpm) compared with that in control (49 + 9 bpm) and fructose animals (46+5 bpm). CONCLUSION: Simvastatin treatment improved insulin sensitivity and cardiac autonomic control in an experimental model of metabolic syndrome in female rats. These effects were independent of the improvements in the classical plasma lipid profile and of reductions in arterial pressure. These results support the hypothesis that statins reduce the cardiometabolic risk in females with metabolic syndrome.