Occurrence of organochlorine compounds in Euphausia superba and unhatched eggs of Pygoscelis genus penguins from Admiralty Bay (King George Island, Antarctica) and estimation of biomagnification factors

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides are compounds that do not occur naturally in the environment and are not easily degraded by chemical or microbiological action. In the present work, those compounds were analysed in unhatched penguin eggs and whole krill collected in Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctica in the austral summers of 2004-2005 and 2005-2006. The compounds found in higher levels (in a wet weight basis) were, in most of the egg samples, the PCBs (2.53-78.7 ng g(-1)), DDTs (2.07-38.0 ng g(-1)) and HCB (4.99-39.1 ng g(-1)) and after Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, the occurrence seemed to be species-specific for the Pygoscelis genus. In all of the cases, the levels found were not higher than the ones in Arctic birds in a similar trophic level. The krill samples analysis allowed estimating the biomagnification factors (which resulted in up to 363 for HCB, one order of magnitude higher than DDTs and chlordanes and two orders of magnitude higher than the other groups) of the compounds found in eggs, whose only source of contamination is the female-offspring transfer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data assimilation for state and parameter estimation: application to morphodynamic modelling

Data assimilation is predominantly used for state estimation; combining observational data with model predictions to produce an updated model state that most accurately approximates the true system state whilst keeping the model parameters fixed. This updated model state is then used to initiate the next model forecast. Even with perfect initial data, inaccurate model parameters will lead to the growth of prediction errors. To generate reliable forecasts we need good estimates of both the current system state and the model parameters. This paper presents research into data assimilation methods for morphodynamic model state and parameter estimation. First, we focus on state estimation and describe implementation of a three dimensional variational(3D-Var) data assimilation scheme in a simple 2D morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay, UK. The assimilation of observations of bathymetry derived from SAR satellite imagery and a ship-borne survey is shown to significantly improve the predictive capability of the model over a 2 year run. Here, the model parameters are set by manual calibration; this is laborious and is found to produce different parameter values depending on the type and coverage of the validation dataset. The second part of this paper considers the problem of model parameter estimation in more detail. We explain how, by employing the technique of state augmentation, it is possible to use data assimilation to estimate uncertain model parameters concurrently with the model state. This approach removes inefficiencies associated with manual calibration and enables more effective use of observational data. We outline the development of a novel hybrid sequential 3D-Var data assimilation algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation and demonstrate its efficacy using an idealised 1D sediment transport model. The results of this study are extremely positive and suggest that there is great potential for the use of data assimilation-based state-parameter estimation in coastal morphodynamic modelling.

Population biology of the barbel drum Ctenosciaena gracilicirrhus (Metzelaar, 1919) (Perciformes: Sciaenidae) in Caraguatatuba Bay, Southeastern Brazil

This study evaluated the population biology of Ctenosciaena gracilicirrhus (Perciformes: Sciaenidae) in a shallow non-estuarine coastal area of southeastern Brazil. Monthly samples were taken from October 2003 through October 2004, in two distinct areas at depths from 1 to 4 m. C. gracilicirrhus was generally among the most abundant fish species during the period. Its density was significantly higher in a single sampling month, May 2004, in the South area, which may be explained by its migratory behavior together with its preference for deeper areas. Such behavior may lead to bias in community estimates that use few or only seasonal samples. C. gracilicirrhus individuals ranged from 4.0 to 10.2 cm long, with a main mode from 7.5 to 9.0 cm and a significant decrease in mean size from June onward. The estimation of body growth parameters was compromised by this population feature. Similarly, the prey spectrum was difficult to determine because of the deteriorated condition of the stomach contents, although crustaceans were clearly the most important items ingested. Amphipoda was the only subgroup that could be identified more precisely, mainly by the construction of their tubes.

"Brienzi" - The blue Vivianite man of Switzerland: Time since death estimation of an adipocere body

In 1996, a cadaver in adipocere condition was discovered in a bay of the Brienzer See in Switzerland. The torso was named "Brienzi" following the "Iceman" Ötzi. Several outer parts of the body were incrusted; the incrustation was in blue color. Further investigations showed that the bluish covering of parts of the adipocere torso were a mineral known as Vivianite. Vivianite (Fe(3)(PO(4))(2-)(H(2)O)(8)) is an iron phosphate mineral with needle lengths between 100 and 150μm. It is normally associated in a context with organic archaeological and geological materials (some hundreds to millions of years old). Hitherto, it is only described in three cases of human remains. We were able to reconstruct the following facts about 'Brienzi': The man drowned in Lake Brienz or in one of its tributaries during the 1700s. The body was subsequently covered with sedimentation and thus buried under water. An earthquake produced an underwater landslide which eventually exposed the corpse.

A Convex Solution to Disparity Estimation from Light Fields via the Primal-Dual Method

We present a novel approach to the reconstruction of depth from light field data. Our method uses dictionary representations and group sparsity constraints to derive a convex formulation. Although our solution results in an increase of the problem dimensionality, we keep numerical complexity at bay by restricting the space of solutions and by exploiting an efficient Primal-Dual formulation. Comparisons with state of the art techniques, on both synthetic and real data, show promising performances.

Isotopic composition of terrestrial plant waxes (dD and d13C of n-alkanes) of sediment core SO188_342 from the Northern Bay of Bengal for the last 18 ka

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is a major global climatic phenomenon. Long-term precipitation proxy records of the ISM, however, are often fragmented and discontinuous, impeding an estimation of the magnitude of precipitation variability from the Last Glacial to the present. To improve our understanding of past ISM variability, we provide a continuous reconstructed record of precipitation and continental vegetation changes from the lower Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna catchment and the Indo-Burman ranges over the last 18,000 years (18 ka). The records derive from a marine sediment core from the northern Bay of Bengal (NBoB), and are complemented by numerical model results of spatial moisture transport and precipitation distribution over the Bengal region. The isotopic composition of terrestrial plant waxes (dD and d13C of n-alkanes) are compared to results from an isotope-enabled general atmospheric circulation model (IsoCAM) for selected time slices (pre-industrial, mid-Holocene and Heinrich Stadial 1). Comparison of proxy and model results indicate that past changes in the dD of precipitation and plant waxes were mainly driven by the amount effect, and strongly influenced by ISM rainfall. Maximum precipitation is detected for the Early Holocene Climatic Optimum (EHCO; 10.5-6 ka BP), whereas minimum precipitation occurred during the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16.9-15.4 ka BP). The IsoCAM model results support the hypothesis of a constant moisture source (i.e. the NBoB) throughout the study period. Relative to the pre-industrial period the model reconstructions show 20% more rain during the mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) and 20% less rain during the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), respectively. A shift from C4-plant dominated ecosystems during the glacial to subsequent C3/C4-mixed ones during the interglacial took place. Vegetation changes were predominantly driven by precipitation variability, as evidenced by the significant correlation between the dD and d13C alkane records. When compared to other records across the ISM domain, precipitation and vegetation changes inferred from our records and the numerical model results provide evidence for a coherent regional variability of the ISM from the Last Glacial to the present.

Magnetic measurements performed on sediments from the Bay of Seine seafloor (France) from 2011 to 2013

Impact and monitoring of dredge spoils are an important environmental issue. This investigation aims to map two dredge-spoil dispersals in the Bay of Seine by using an innovative application of well-established environmental magnetic proxies. Low-field magnetic susceptibility measurements were performed on discrete samples from dredge sediments and from the Bay of Seine seafloor before & after dumping. The fingerprinting of the dispersion of dredge-dumped sediments is efficient due to the higher susceptibility of the dredge sediments with respect to the background. Besides, terrestrial input is also monitored in our susceptibility maps. Dilution of the susceptibility signal allows an estimation of the resilience of the sedimentary environment on a six-month survey. This susceptibility signal is controlled by the ferromagnetic fraction of the sediment. A constant magnetic mineralogy carried by magnetite is observed in the study area, thus a qualitative parameter for magnetic grain size was selected that shows an in-progress resilience pattern over the survey.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Modal Parameters in Structures Using the Expectation Maximization Algorithm

This paper presents a time-domain stochastic system identification method based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The effectiveness of this structural identification method is evaluated through numerical simulation in the context of the ASCE benchmark problem on structural health monitoring. The benchmark structure is a four-story, two-bay by two-bay steel-frame scale model structure built in the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory at the University of British Columbia, Canada. This paper focuses on Phase I of the analytical benchmark studies. A MATLAB-based finite element analysis code obtained from the IASC-ASCE SHM Task Group web site is used to calculate the dynamic response of the prototype structure. A number of 100 simulations have been made using this MATLAB-based finite element analysis code in order to evaluate the proposed identification method. There are several techniques to realize system identification. In this work, stochastic subspace identification (SSI)method has been used for comparison. SSI identification method is a well known method and computes accurate estimates of the modal parameters. The principles of the SSI identification method has been introduced in the paper and next the proposed MLE with EM algorithm has been explained in detail. The advantages of the proposed structural identification method can be summarized as follows: (i) the method is based on maximum likelihood, that implies minimum variance estimates; (ii) EM is a computational simpler estimation procedure than other optimization algorithms; (iii) estimate more parameters than SSI, and these estimates are accurate. On the contrary, the main disadvantages of the method are: (i) EM algorithm is an iterative procedure and it consumes time until convergence is reached; and (ii) this method needs starting values for the parameters. Modal parameters (eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes) of the benchmark structure have been estimated using both the SSI method and the proposed MLE + EM method. The numerical results show that the proposed method identifies eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes reasonably well even in the presence of 10% measurement noises. These modal parameters are more accurate than the SSI estimated modal parameters.

Micromesistius poutassou (blue whiting) abundance and biomass data in Bay of Biscay estimated from acoustic surveys (2000-2012)

Acoustic and pelagic trawl data were collected during various pelagic surveys carried out by IFREMER in May between 2000 and 2012 (except 2001), on the eastern continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay (Pelgas series). The acoustic data were collected with a Simrad EK60 echosounder operating at 38 kHz (beam angle at -3 dB: 7°, pulse length set to 1.024 ms). The echosounder transducer was mounted on the vessel keel, at 6 m below the sea surface. The sampling design were parallel transects spaced 12 nm apart which were orientated perpendicular to the coast line from 20 m to about 200 m bottom depth. The nominal sailing speed was 10 knots and 3 knots on average during fishing operations. The scrutinising (species identification) of acoustic data was done by first characterising acoustic schools by type and then linking these types with the species composition of specific trawl hauls. The data set contains nautical area backscattering values, biomass and abundance estimates for blue whiting for one nautical mile long transect lines. Further information on the survey design, scrutinising and biomass estimation can be found in Doray et al. 2012.

Sea ice habitat characteristics and number of narwhal (Monodon monoceros) sightings in Disko Bay, West Greenland

There is a paucity of information on abundance, densities, and habitat selection of narwhals Monodon monoceros in the offshore pack ice of Baffin Bay, West Greenland, despite the critical importance of winter foraging regions and considerable sea ice declines in the past decades. We conducted a double-platform visual aerial survey over a narwhal wintering ground to obtain pack ice densities and develop the first fully corrected abundance estimate using point conditional mark-recapture distance sampling. Continuous video recording and digital images taken along the trackline allowed for in situ quantification of winter narwhal habitat and for the estimation of fine-scale narwhal habitat selection and habitat-specific sighting probabilities. Abundance at the surface was estimated at 3484 (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.46) including whales missed by observers. The fully corrected abundance of narwhals was 18 044 (CV = 0.46), or approximately one-quarter of the entire Baffin Bay population. The narwhal wintering ground surveyed (~9500 km**2) had 2.4 to 3.2% open water based on estimates from satellite imagery (NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and 1565 digital photographic images collected on the trackline. Thus, the ~18 000 narwhals had access to 233 km**2 of open water, resulting in an average density of ~77 narwhals/km**2 open water. Narwhal sighting probability near habitats with <10% or 10 to 50% open water was significantly higher than sighting probability in habitats with >50% open water, suggesting narwhals select optimal foraging areas in dense pack ice regardless of open water availability. This study provides the first quantitative ecological data on densities and habitat selection of narwhals in pack ice foraging regions that are rapidly being altered with climate change.

Radiolarian-based bransfer function for the estimation of sea surface temperatures in the Southern Ocean (Atlantic Sector)

A new radiolarian-based transfer function for sea surface temperature (SST) estimations has been developed from 23 taxa and taxa groups in 53 surface sediment samples recovered between 35° and 72°S in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. For the selection of taxa and taxa groups ecological information from water column studies was considered. The transfer function allows the estimation of austral summer SST (December-March) ranging between -1 and 18°C with a standard error of estimate of 1.2°C. SST estimates from selected late Pleistocene squences were sucessfully compared with independend paleotemperature estimates derived from a diatom transfer function. This shows that radiolarians provide an excellent tool for paleotemperature reconstructions in Pleistocene sediments of the Southern Ocean.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A tidal creek water budget: Estimation of groundwater discharge and overland flow using hydrologic modeling in the Southern Everglades

Taylor Slough is one of the natural freshwater contributors to Florida Bay through a network of microtidal creeks crossing the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER). The EMER ecological function is critical since it mediates freshwater and nutrient inputs and controls the water quality in Eastern Florida Bay. Furthermore, this region is vulnerable to changing hydrodynamics and nutrient loadings as a result of upstream freshwater management practices proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP), currently the largest wetland restoration project in the USA. Despite the hydrological importance of Taylor Slough in the water budget of Florida Bay, there are no fine scale (∼1 km2) hydrodynamic models of this system that can be utilized as a tool to evaluate potential changes in water flow, salinity, and water quality. Taylor River is one of the major creeks draining Taylor Slough freshwater into Florida Bay. We performed a water budget analysis for the Taylor River area, based on long-term hydrologic data (1999–2007) and supplemented by hydrodynamic modeling using a MIKE FLOOD (DHI,http://dhigroup.com/) model to evaluate groundwater and overland water discharges. The seasonal hydrologic characteristics are very distinctive (average Taylor River wet vs. dry season outflow was 6 to 1 during 1999–2006) with a pronounced interannual variability of flow. The water budget shows a net dominance of through flow in the tidal mixing zone, while local precipitation and evapotranspiration play only a secondary role, at least in the wet season. During the dry season, the tidal flood reaches the upstream boundary of the study area during approximately 80 days per year on average. The groundwater field measurements indicate a mostly upwards-oriented leakage, which possibly equals the evapotranspiration term. The model results suggest a high importance of groundwater contribution to the water salinity in the EMER. The model performance is satisfactory during the dry season where surface flow in the area is confined to the Taylor River channel. The model also provided guidance on the importance of capturing the overland flow component, which enters the area as sheet flow during the rainy season. Overall, the modeling approach is suitable to reach better understanding of the water budget in the mangrove region. However, more detailed field data is needed to ascertain model predictions by further calibrating overland flow parameters.

Estimation of sea surface temperature from sediment core PS1768-8

The quantitative diatom analysis of 218 surface sediment samples recovered in the Atlantic and western Indian sector of the Southern Ocean is used to define a base of reference data for paleotemperature estimations from diatom assemblages using the Imbrie and Kipp transfer function method. The criteria which justify the exclusion of samples and species out of the raw data set in order to define a reference database are outlined and discussed. Sensitivity tests with eight data sets were achieved evaluating the effects of overall dominance of single species, different methods of species abundance ranking, and no-analog conditions (e.g., Eucampia Antarctica) on the estimated paleotemperatures. The defined transfer functions were applied on a sediment core from the northern Antarctic zone. Overall dominance of Fragilariopsis kerguelensis in the diatom assemblages resulted in a close affinity between paleotemperature curve and relative abundance pattern of this species downcore. Logarithmic conversion of counting data applied with other ranking methods in order to compensate the dominance of F. kerguelensis revealed the best statistical results. A reliable diatom transfer function for future paleotemperature estimations is presented.