Directed Search over the Life Cycle

We develop a life-cycle model of the labor market in which different worker-firm matches have different quality and the assignment of the right workers to the right firms is time consuming because of search and learning frictions. The rate at which workers move between unemployment, employment and across different firms is endogenous because search is directed and, hence, workers can choose whether to seek low-wage jobs that are easy to find or high-wage jobs that are hard to find. We calibrate our theory using data on labor market transitions aggregated across workers of different ages. We validate our theory by showing that it predicts quite well the pattern of labor market transitions for workers of different ages. Finally, we use our theory to decompose the age profiles of transition rates, wages and productivity into the effects of age variation in work-life expectancy, human capital and match quality.

Estudio preliminar para la adaptación del programa autoaplicable de elección vocacional self-directed search de John L. Holland.

Resumen tomado del autor. Resumen en inglés y castellano

O self-directed search (SDS) en Galicia

Se plantea la problem??tica de los j??venes de la toma de decisiones, tales como elegir una carrera, una profesi??n, argument??ndose que en ocasiones no est??n preparados para tomar dicha decisi??n. Por ello se realiza un an??lisis de la obra Self-Directed Search, SDS, Forma Regular, Edici??n 1994 del profesor Holland, el cual trata de explicar la conducta vocacional de los j??venes. Se describen los fundamentos te??ricos expuestos en esta obra, las diferentes tipolog??as personales, tambi??n se aportan algunas cr??ticas que ha recibido esta obra, se detallan sus m??todos, sus instrumentos, su m??todo y sus resultados.

Directed search with real options

While search is normally modelled by economists purely in terms of decisions over making observations, this paper models it as a process in which information is gained through feedback from innovatory product launches. The information gained can then be used to decide whether to exercise real options. In the model the initial decisions involve a product design and the scale of production capacity. There are then real options to change these factors based on what is learned. The case of launching product variants in parallel is also considered. Under ‘true’ uncertainty, the model can be seen in terms of heuristic decision-making based on subjective beliefs with limited foresight. Search costs, the values of the real options, beliefs, and the cost of capital are all shown to be significant in determining the search path.

Directed search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 with initial LIGO data

We present results of a search for continuously emitted gravitational radiation, directed at the brightest low-mass x-ray binary, Scorpius X-1. Our semicoherent analysis covers 10 days of LIGO S5 data ranging from 50-550 Hz, and performs an incoherent sum of coherent F-statistic power distributed amongst frequency-modulated orbital sidebands. All candidates not removed at the veto stage were found to be consistent with noise at a 1% false alarm rate. We present Bayesian 95% confidence upper limits on gravitational-wave strain amplitude using two different prior distributions: a standard one, with no a priori assumptions about the orientation of Scorpius X-1; and an angle-restricted one, using a prior derived from electromagnetic observations. Median strain upper limits of 1.3 x 10(-24) and 8 x 10(-25) are reported at 150 Hz for the standard and angle-restricted searches respectively. This proof-of-principle analysis was limited to a short observation time by unknown effects of accretion on the intrinsic spin frequency of the neutron star, but improves upon previous upper limits by factors of similar to 1.4 for the standard, and 2.3 for the angle-restricted search at the sensitive region of the detector.

Efficient Competition through Cheap Talk: Competing Auctions and Competitive Search without Ex Ante Price

We consider a frictional two-sided matching market in which one side uses public cheap talk announcements so as to attract the other side. We show that if the first-price auction is adopted as the trading protocol, then cheap talk can be perfectly informative, and the resulting market outcome is efficient, constrained only by search frictions. We also show that the performance of an alternative trading protocol in the cheap-talk environment depends on the level of price dispersion generated by the protocol: If a trading protocol compresses (spreads) the distribution of prices relative to the first-price auction, then an efficient fully revealing equilibrium always (never) exists. Our results identify the settings in which cheap talk can serve as an efficient competitive instrument, in the sense that the central insights from the literature on competing auctions and competitive search continue to hold unaltered even without ex ante price commitment.

The risk-incentive trade-off in competitive search

Usando a abordagem de competitive search, modelo um mercado de trabalho com trabalhadores heterogêneos no qual há um problema de risco moral na relação entre firmas e trabalhadores. Nesse contexto, consigo prever como contratos reagem a mudanças nos parâmetros do mercado (em particular, o risco de produção), assim como a variação da probabilidade dos trabalhadores serem contratados. Minha contribuição principal é ver que, no nível individual, existe uma relação negativa entre risco e incentivos, mas efeitos de equilíbrio geral implicam que essa relação pode ser positiva no nível agregado. Esse resultado ajuda a esclarecer resultados empíricos contraditórios sobre a relação entre risco e incentivos.

Competing with Asking Prices

In many markets, sellers advertise their good with an asking price. This is a price at which the seller will take his good off the market and trade immediately, though it is understood that a buyer can submit an offer below the asking price and that this offer may be accepted if the seller receives no better offers. Despite their prevalence in a variety of real world markets, asking prices have received little attention in the academic literature. We construct an environment with a few simple, realistic ingredients and demonstrate that using an asking price is optimal: it is the pricing mechanism that maximizes sellers’ revenues and it implements the efficient outcome in equilibrium. We provide a complete characterization of this equilibrium and use it to explore the positive implications of this pricing mechanism for transaction prices and allocations.

Competing with Asking Prices

In many markets, sellers advertise their good with an asking price. This is a price at which the seller will take his good off the market and trade immediately, though it is understood that a buyer can submit an offer below the asking price and that this offer may be accepted if the seller receives no better offers. Despite their prevalence in a variety of real world markets, asking prices have received little attention in the academic literature. We construct an environment with a few simple, realistic ingredients and demonstrate that using an asking price is optimal: it is the pricing mechanism that maximizes sellers' revenues and it implements the efficient outcome in equilibrium. We provide a complete characterization of this equilibrium and use it to explore the implications of this pricing mechanism for transaction prices and allocations.

Personality and melanin-based colouration traits in barn owls, tawny owl and kestrels

Individuals need to adapt to their local environment in order to survive. When selection pressures differ in local populations, polymorphism can evolve. Colour polymorphism is one of the most obvious polymorphisms since it is readily observable. Different sources of colouration exist, but melanin-based colouration is one of the most common in birds. The melanocortin system produces this colouration and because the melanocortin system has pleiotropic effects on behavioural and physiological traits, it is a good candidate to be an underlying mechanism to explain the maintenance of colour polymorphism. In this thesis I studied three different raptors which all display melanin-based colouration; barn owls (Tyto alba), tawny owls (Strix aluco) and Eurasian kestrels (Falco tinnunculus). The main question was if there was a relationship between melanin-based colouration and individual behavioural differences. The underlying hypothesis is that colour could be a signal of certain adaptive traits. Our goal was to find evolutionary explanations for the persistence of colour polymorphism. I found that nestling kestrels and barn owls differ in anti-predatory behaviour, with respect to their melanic colouration (chapters 1 and 2). Darker individuals show less reaction to human handling, but in kestrels aggression and colouration are related in opposite ways than in barn owls. More reddish barn owls travel greater distances in natal dispersal and this behaviour is repeatable between parents and same sex offspring (chapter 3). Dark reddish tawny owls defend their nests more intensely against intruders and appear to suffer less from nest predation (chapter 4). Finally I show that polymorphism in the Melanocortin 1 receptor gene (MC1R), which is strongly correlated with reddish colouration in the barn owl, is related to natal dispersal distance, providing a first indication for a genetic basis of the relation between this behaviour and colouration (chapter 5). My results demonstrate a clear link between melanin-based colouration and animal personality traits. I demonstrated this relation in three different species, which shows there is most likely a general underlying mechanism responsible. Different predation pressures might have shaped the reactions to predation, but also differences in sex-related colouration. Male-like and female-like colouration might signal more or less aggressive behaviour. Fluctuating environmental conditions might cause different individual strategies to produce equal reproductive success. The melanocortin system with its pleiotropic effects might be an underlying mechanism, as suggested by the results from the genetic polymorphism, the similar results found in these three species and by the similar relations reported in other species. This thesis demonstrates that colouration and individual differences are correlated and it provides the first glimpse of an underlying system. We can now conduct a more directed search for underlying mechanisms and evolutionary explanations with the use of quantitative genetic methods.

Heterogeneity as a coordination device

A model of directed search with a finite number of buyers and sellers is considered, where sellers compete in direct mechanisms. Buyer heterogeneity and Nash equilibrium results in perfect sorting. The restriction to complementary inputs, that the match value function Q is supermodular, in addition coordinates the sellers strategies. In that case, equilibrium implements positive assortative matching, which is efficient and consistent with the stable (cooperative equilibrium) outcome. This provides a non-cooperative and decentralizedsolution for the Assignment Game. Conversely, if buyers are identical, no such coordination is possible, and there is a continuum of equilibria, one of which exhibits price posting, another yields competition in auctions.

Os Interesses e as Escolhas Profissionais de Acordo com os 6 Tipos de Personalidade Propostos por Holland (Riasec) numa Amostra de Estudantes do Ensino Superior em Cabo Verde

Tendo por base a teoria dos interesses e das escolhas vocacionais e o modelo RIASEC propostos por Holland, (1973, 1985, 1997) a presente investigação pretende saber como se caracterizam os interesses profissionais dos alunos que frequentam diferentes Cursos Superiores em Cabo Verde e avaliar as características psicométricas do instrumento utilizado. Pretende-se ainda averiguar se existe congruência ou não entre os interesses dos estudantes e os cursos que frequentam, bem como verificar se há diferenças nos interesses avaliados em função do género e do estatuto socioeconómico. Nesta investigação participaram 250 estudantes de três instituições de Ensino Superior da Cidade da Praia, Ilha de Santiago em Cabo Verde. Foi aplicado o Inventário de Interesse de Exploração Autodirigida (SDS), versão em língua portuguesa (Primi, Mansão, Muniz, & Nunes, 2010). Os resultados obtidos confirmam as adequadas características psicométricas do instrumento nesta população e estão de acordo com as previsões do modelo acima referido

La tipología RIASEC y las modalidades de bachillerato.

Resumen tomado de la publicación

A robust controller design method for feedback substitution schemes using genetic algorithms

Controllers for feedback substitution schemes demonstrate a trade-off between noise power gain and normalized response time. Using as an example the design of a controller for a radiometric transduction process subjected to arbitrary noise power gain and robustness constraints, a Pareto-front of optimal controller solutions fulfilling a range of time-domain design objectives can be derived. In this work, we consider designs using a loop shaping design procedure (LSDP). The approach uses linear matrix inequalities to specify a range of objectives and a genetic algorithm (GA) to perform a multi-objective optimization for the controller weights (MOGA). A clonal selection algorithm is used to further provide a directed search of the GA towards the Pareto front. We demonstrate that with the proposed methodology, it is possible to design higher order controllers with superior performance in terms of response time, noise power gain and robustness.