Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

The macroeconomic imbalance procedure and Germany: when is a current account surplus an 'imbalance'? CEPS Policy Brief No. 301, 13 November 2013

In this new Policy Brief, CEPS Director Daniel Gros argues that the 13 November announcement of the European Commission that Germany is running an excessive current account surplus appears to be much ado about little. All the Commission can, and will, do is to start an ‘in depth analysis’. This might lead to strong political reactions and an enormous echo in the media. But nothing of concrete substance is likely to follow.

Relationship of autonomic imbalance and circadian disruption with obesity and type 2 diabetes in resistant hypertensive patients

Background: Hypertension, diabetes and obesity are not isolated findings, but a series of interacting interactive physiologic derangements. Taking into account genetic background and lifestyle behavior, AI (autonomic imbalance) could be a common root for RHTN (resistant hypertension) or RHTN plus type 2 diabetes (T2D) comorbidity development. Moreover, circadian disruption can lead to metabolic and vasomotor impairments such as obesity, insulin resistance and resistant hypertension. In order to better understand the triggered emergence of obesity and T2D comorbidity in resistant hypertension, we investigated the pattern of autonomic activity in the circadian rhythm in RHTN with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D), and its relationship with serum adiponectin concentration. Methods: Twenty five RHTN patients (15 non-T2D and 10 T2D, 15 males, 10 females; age range 34 to 70 years) were evaluated using the following parameters: BMI (body mass index), biochemical analysis, serum adiponectinemia, echocardiogram and ambulatory electrocardiograph heart rate variability (HRV) in time and frequency domains stratified into three periods: 24 hour, day time and night time. Results: Both groups demonstrated similar characteristics despite of the laboratory analysis concerning T2D like fasting glucose, HbA1c levels and hypertriglyceridemia. Both groups also revealed disruption of the circadian rhythm: inverted sympathetic and parasympathetic tones during day (parasympathetic > sympathetic tone) and night periods (sympathetic > parasympathetic tone). T2D group had increased BMI and serum triglyceride levels (mean 33.7 +/- 4.0 vs 26.6 +/- 3.7 kg/m(2) - p = 0.00; 254.8 +/- 226.4 vs 108.6 +/- 48.7 mg/dL - p = 0.04), lower levels of adiponectin (6729.7 +/- 3381.5 vs 10911.5 +/- 5554.0 ng/mL - p = 0.04) and greater autonomic imbalance evaluated by HRV parameters in time domain compared to non-T2D RHTN patients. Total patients had HRV correlated positively with serum adiponectin (r = 0.37 [95% CI - 0.04 - 1.00] p = 0.03), negatively with HbA1c levels (r = -0.58 [95% CI -1.00 - -0.3] p = 0.00) and also adiponectin correlated negatively with HbA1c levels (r = -0.40 [95% CI -1.00 - -0.07] p = 0.02). Conclusion: Type 2 diabetes comorbidity is associated with greater autonomic imbalance, lower adiponectin levels and greater BMI in RHTN patients. Similar circadian disruption was also found in both groups indicating the importance of lifestyle behavior in the genesis of RHTN.

Multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer calibration for spectral aerosol optical depth retrievals over Sao Paulo City, Brazil

Multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer (MFRSR) calibration values for aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals were determined by means of the general method formulated by Forgan [Appl. Opt. 33, 4841 (1994)] at a polluted urban site. The obtained precision is comparable with the classical method, the Langley plot, applied on clean mountaintops distant of pollution sources. The AOD retrieved over Sao Paulo City with both calibration procedures is compared with the Aerosol Robotic Network data. The observed results are similar, and, except for the shortest wavelength (415 nm), the MFRSR`s AOD is systematically overestimated by similar to 0.03. (c) 2008 Optical Society of America.

Severe Plasmodium vivax malaria exhibits marked inflammatory imbalance

Background: Despite clinical descriptions of severe vivax malaria cases having been reported, data regarding immunological and inflammatory patterns are scarce. In this report, the inflammatory and immunological status of both mild and severe vivax malaria cases are compared in order to explore immunopathological events in this disease. Methods and Results: Active and passive malaria case detections were performed during 2007 in Buritis, Rondonia, in the Brazilian Amazon. A total of 219 participants enrolled the study. Study individuals were classified according to the presence of Plasmodium vivax infection within four groups: non-infected (n = 90), asymptomatic (n = 60), mild (n = 50) and severe vivax infection (n = 19). A diagnosis of malaria was made by microscopy and molecular assays. Since at present no clear criteria define severe vivax malaria, this study adapted the consensual criteria from falciparum malaria. Patients with severe P. vivax infection were younger, had lived for shorter time in the endemic area, and recalled having experienced less previous malaria episodes than individuals with no malaria infection and with mild or asymptomatic infection. Strong linear trends were identified regarding increasing plasma levels of C reactive protein (CRP), serum creatinine, bilirubins and the graduation of disease severity. Plasma levels of tumour necrosis factor (TNF), interferon-gamma(IFN-gamma) and also IFN-gamma/interleukin-10 ratios were increased and exhibited a linear trend with gradual augmentation of disease severity. Both laboratory parameters of organ dysfunction and inflammatory cytokines were reduced during anti-parasite therapy in those patients with severe disease. Conclusion: Different clinical presentations of vivax malaria infection present strong association with activation of pro-inflammatory responses and cytokine imbalance. These findings are of utmost importance to improve current knowledge about physiopathological concepts of this serious widespread disease.

Depth-dependent local structures in thin films unraveled by grazing-incidence X-ray absorption spectroscopy

A method of using X-ray absorption spectroscopy together with resolved grazing-incidence geometry for depth profiling of atomic, electronic or chemical local structures in thin films is presented. The quantitative deconvolution of thickness-dependent spectral features is performed by fully considering both scattering and absorption formalisms. Surface oxidation and local structural depth profiles in nanometric FePt films are determined, exemplifying the application of the method.

Measurement of the depth of maximum of extensive air showers above 10(18) eV

We describe the measurement of the depth of maximum, X(max), of the longitudinal development of air showers induced by cosmic rays. Almost 4000 events above 10(18) eV observed by the fluorescence detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory in coincidence with at least one surface detector station are selected for the analysis. The average shower maximum was found to evolve with energy at a rate of (106 +/- 35-21) g/cm(2)/decade below 10(18.24) +/- (0.05) eV, and d24 +/- 3 g/cm(2)/ecade above this energy. The measured shower-to-shower fluctuations decrease from about 55 to 26 g/cm(2). The interpretation of these results in terms of the cosmic ray mass composition is briefly discussed.

Node-Depth Encoding and Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Applied to Large-Scale Distribution System Reconfiguration

The power loss reduction in distribution systems (DSs) is a nonlinear and multiobjective problem. Service restoration in DSs is even computationally hard since it additionally requires a solution in real-time. Both DS problems are computationally complex. For large-scale networks, the usual problem formulation has thousands of constraint equations. The node-depth encoding (NDE) enables a modeling of DSs problems that eliminates several constraint equations from the usual formulation, making the problem solution simpler. On the other hand, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (EA) based on subpopulation tables adequately models several objectives and constraints, enabling a better exploration of the search space. The combination of the multiobjective EA with NDE (MEAN) results in the proposed approach for solving DSs problems for large-scale networks. Simulation results have shown the MEAN is able to find adequate restoration plans for a real DS with 3860 buses and 632 switches in a running time of 0.68 s. Moreover, the MEAN has shown a sublinear running time in function of the system size. Tests with networks ranging from 632 to 5166 switches indicate that the MEAN can find network configurations corresponding to a power loss reduction of 27.64% for very large networks requiring relatively low running time.

Power imbalance application region method for distributed synchronous generator anti-islanding protection design and evaluation

This paper presents a novel graphical approach to adjust and evaluate frequency-based relays employed in anti-islanding protection schemes of distributed synchronous generators, in order to meet the anti-islanding and abnormal frequency variation requirements, simultaneously. The proposed method defines a region in the power mismatch space, inside which the relay non-detection zone should be located, if the above-mentioned requirements must be met. Such region is called power imbalance application region. Results show that this method can help protection engineers to adjust frequency-based relays to improve the anti-islanding capability and to minimize false operation occurrences, keeping the abnormal frequency variation utility requirements satisfied. Moreover, the proposed method can be employed to coordinate different types of frequency-based relays, aiming at improving overall performance of the distributed generator frequency protection scheme. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Energy dissipation in depth-sensing indentation as a characteristic of the nanoscratch behavior of coatings

Wear behavior of coatings has usually been described in terms of mechanical properties such as hardness (H) and effective elastic modulus (E*). Alternatively, an energy approach appears as a promising analysis taking into account the influence of those properties. In a nanoindentation test, the dissipated energy depends not only on the hardness and elastic modulus, but also on the elastic recovery (W(e)). This work aims to establish a relation between plastic deformation energy (E(p)) during depth-sensing indentation method and the grooving resistance of coatings in nanoscratch tests. An energy dissipation coefficient (K(d)) was defined, calculated as the ratio of the plastic to the total deformation energy (E(p)/E(t)), which represents the energy dissipation of materials. Reactive depositions using titanium as the target and nitrogen and methane as reactive gases were obtained by triode magnetron sputtering, in order to assess wear and nanoindentation data. A topographical, chemical and microstructural characterization has been conducted using X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), wave dispersion spectroscopy (WDS), scanning electron (SEM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM) techniques. Nanoscratch results showed that the groove depth was well correlated to the energy dissipation coefficient of the coatings. On the other hand, a reduction in the coefficient was found when the elastic recovery was increased. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An In-Depth Study of the Barkhausen Emission Signal Properties of the Plastically Deformed Fe-2%Si Alloy

This paper presents the results of the in-depth study of the Barkhausen effect signal properties for the plastically deformed Fe-2%Si samples. The investigated samples have been deformed by cold rolling up to plastic strain epsilon(p) = 8%. The first approach consisted of time-domain-resolved pulse and frequency analysis of the Barkhausen noise signals whereas the complementary study consisted of the time-resolved pulse count analysis as well as a total pulse count. The latter included determination of time distribution of pulses for different threshold voltage levels as well as the total pulse count as a function of both the amplitude and the duration time of the pulses. The obtained results suggest that the observed increase in the Barkhausen noise signal intensity as a function of deformation level is mainly due to the increase in the number of bigger pulses.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

On the relationship between the critical temperature and the London penetration depth in layered organic superconductors

We present an analysis of previously published measurements of the London penetration depth of layered organic superconductors. The predictions of the BCS theory of superconductivity are shown to disagree with the measured zero temperature, in plane, London penetration depth by up to two orders of magnitude. We find that fluctuations in the phase of the superconducting order parameter do not determine the superconducting critical temperature as the critical temperature predicted for a Kosterlitz–Thouless transition is more than an order of magnitude greater than is found experimentally for some materials. This places constraints on theories of superconductivity in these materials.