Terms of trade, macroeconomic dynamics and default decisions

A evidência empírica aponta que Termos de Troca é uma variável relevante tanto para dinâmica macroeconômica como para o risco de default em países emergentes. No entanto, a literatura de dívida soberana baseada nos trabalhos de Eaton e Gerzovitz (1981) e Arellano (2008) ainda não explorou de forma adequada as conecções entre a dinâmica de termos de troca e incentivos ao default. Nós contribuímos nessa área, introduzindo volatilidade de Termos de Troca no modelo proposto por Mendoza e Yue (2012), no qual as decisões de dívida soberana são vinculadas à um modelo de equilíbrio geral para a economia doméstica. Nós encontramos que uma economia exposta à volatilidade dos termos de troca consegue produzir uma variabilidade do consumo que supera significativamente a variabilidade do produto, característica que constitui um fato estilizado chave de business cycles de países emergentes. Nossos exercícios também mostram que decisões de default são geradas por mudanças bruscas nos termos de troca, mas não necessariamente estão vinculados à estados ruins da economia.

Investment Valuation with Tax-optimized Financing Decisions and a Tax-optimized Default Alternative

In this paper we evaluate an indivisible investment project that is carried out in a corporation under very simple premises. In particular, we discuss a one-period model with certainty, the pure domestic case and proportional tax rates. Surprisingly, the decision problem turns out to be rather complex if one has to make allowance for different taxation of the corporation and its owner. Altogether there are more than 10 cases that have to be distinguished if the firm's managers want to make a correct decision, depending on the relation of personal and corporate tax rates.

Framework for assessing financial literacy and superannuation investment choice decisions

There is a worldwide trend towards rapidly growing defined contribution pension funds in terms of assets and membership, and the choices available to individuals. This has shifted the decisionmaking responsibility to fund members for managing the investment of their retirement savings. This change has given rise to a phenomenon where most superannuation fund members are responsible for either actively choosing or passively relying on their funds’ default investment options. Prior research identifies that deficiencies in financial literacy is one of the causes of inertia in financial decision-making and findings from international and Australian studies show that financial illiteracy is wide-spread. Given the potential significant economic and social consequences of poor financial decision-making in superannuation matters, this paper proposes a framework by which the various demographic, social and contextual factors that influence fund members’ financial literacy and its association with investment choice decisions are explored. Enhanced theoretical and empirical understanding of the factors that are associated with active/passive investment choice decisions would enable development of well-targeted financial education programs.

District Court debt decisions

This article examines the distinction between a "liquidated demand" and a claim for "unliquidated damages" and the implications of that distinction on the procedure for obtaining a judgment if the defendant fails to file a notice of intention to defend.

Insula and striatum mediate the default bias.

Humans are creatures of routine and habit. When faced with situations in which a default option is available, people show a consistent tendency to stick with the default. Why this occurs is unclear. To elucidate its neural basis, we used a novel gambling task in conjunction with functional magnetic resonance imaging. Behavioral results revealed that participants were more likely to choose the default card and felt enhanced emotional responses to outcomes after making the decision to switch. We show that increased tendency to switch away from the default during the decision phase was associated with decreased activity in the anterior insula; activation in this same area in reaction to "switching away from the default and losing" was positively related with experienced frustration. In contrast, decisions to choose the default engaged the ventral striatum, the same reward area as seen in winning. Our findings highlight aversive processes in the insula as underlying the default bias and suggest that choosing the default may be rewarding in itself.

Essays on international finance, default and inflation

This thesis is composed by three papers, each one of them corresponding to one chapter. The first and the second chapters are essays on international finance appraising default and inflation as equilibrium outcomes for crisis time, in particular, for confidence crisis time that leads to speculative attack on the external public debt issued by emerging economies. With this background in mind, welfare effects from adopting common currency (chapter 1) and welfare effects from increasing the degree of economic openness (chapter 2) are analyzed in numerical exercises, based on DSGE framework. Cross-countries results obtained are then presented to be compared with empirical evidence and to help on understanding past policy decisions. Some policy prescriptions are also suggested. In the third chapter we look to the inflation targeting regime applied to emerging economies that are subject to adverse shocks, like the external debt crisis presented in the previous chapters. Based on a more theoretical approach, we appraise how pre commitment framework should be used to coordinate expectations when policymaker announcement has no full credibility and self fulfilling inflation may be possible.

The effect of focusing on loan decisions

In this paper we investigate some implications of recent results about salience on loan decisions. Using the framework of focus-weighted utility we show that consumers might take out loans even when that yield them negative utility. We claim however, that consumers are more prudent in their decisions and might be less likely to take out such loans when the usual fixed- and increasing-installment plans are coupled with a decreasing-installment option. We argue that harmful loan consumption, especially in the case of loans with increasing-installments (e.g. alternative mortgage loans), could be decreased if a policy would prescribe presentation of loan repayment schedules in a way that employs this effect. Moreover, using the model of focus-weighted utility we give a possible explanation for the unpopularity of decreasing-installment plans, the success of increasing-installment plans and their higher default rate during the financial crisis.

The effect of focusing on loan decisions

In this paper we investigate some implications of recent results about salience on loan decisions. Using the framework of focus-weighted utility we show that consumers might take out loans even when that yield them negative utility. We claim however, that consumers are more prudent in their decisions and might be less likely to take out such loans when the usual fixed- and increasing-installment plans are coupled with a decreasing-installment option. We argue that harmful loan consumption, especially in the case of loans with increasing-installments (e.g. alternative mortgage loans), could be decreased if a policy would prescribe presentation of loan repayment schedules in a way that employs this effect. Moreover, using the model of focus-weighted utility we give a possible explanation for the unpopularity of decreasing-installment plans, the success of increasing-installment plans and their higher default rate during the financial crisis.

Estimating dynamic models with aggregate shocks and an application to mortgage default in Colombia

We estimate a dynamic model of mortgage default for a cohort of Colombian debtors between 1997 and 2004. We use the estimated model to study the effects on default of a class of policies that affected the evolution of mortgage balances in Colombia during the 1990's. We propose a framework for estimating dynamic behavioral models accounting for the presence of unobserved state variables that are correlated across individuals and across time periods. We extend the standard literature on the structural estimation of dynamic models by incorporating an unobserved common correlated shock that affects all individuals' static payoffs and the dynamic continuation payoffs associated with different decisions. Given a standard parametric specification the dynamic problem, we show that the aggregate shocks are identified from the variation in the observed aggregate behavior. The shocks and their transition are separately identified, provided there is enough cross-sectionavl ariation of the observeds tates.