Model selection with misspecified spatial covariance structure

Spatial data analysis has become more and more important in the studies of ecology and economics during the last decade. One focus of spatial data analysis is how to select predictors, variance functions and correlation functions. However, in general, the true covariance function is unknown and the working covariance structure is often misspecified. In this paper, our target is to find a good strategy to identify the best model from the candidate set using model selection criteria. This paper is to evaluate the ability of some information criteria (corrected Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and residual information criterion (RIC)) for choosing the optimal model when the working correlation function, the working variance function and the working mean function are correct or misspecified. Simulations are carried out for small to moderate sample sizes. Four candidate covariance functions (exponential, Gaussian, Matern and rational quadratic) are used in simulation studies. With the summary in simulation results, we find that the misspecified working correlation structure can still capture some spatial correlation information in model fitting. When the sample size is large enough, BIC and RIC perform well even if the the working covariance is misspecified. Moreover, the performance of these information criteria is related to the average level of model fitting which can be indicated by the average adjusted R square ( [GRAPHICS] ), and overall RIC performs well.

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method of estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. Methods A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shape parameters of these beta distributions were chosen to match prior estimates sourced from peer-reviewed literature or expert opinion. To best facilitate the calibration, multivariate Gaussian priors on (the logistic transforms of) the time-dependent parameters were adopted, using the Matérn covariance function to favour changes over consecutive years and across adjacent age cohorts. The model outcomes were validated by comparing them with other independent empirical epidemiological measures i.e. prevalence and incidence as reported by other studies. Results Model-based estimates suggest that the total number of people acquiring chlamydia per year in Australia has increased by ~120% over 12 years. Nationally, an estimated 356,000 people acquired chlamydia in 2013, which is 4.3 times the number of reported diagnoses. This corresponded to a chlamydia annual incidence estimate of 1.54% in 2013, increased from 0.81% in 2001 (~90% increase). Conclusions We developed a statistical method which uses routine surveillance (notifications and testing) data to produce estimates of the extent and trends in chlamydia incidence.

Copula-based spatial modelling of geometallurgical variables

The most important aspect of modelling a geological variable, such as metal grade, is the spatial correlation. Spatial correlation describes the relationship between realisations of a geological variable sampled at different locations. Any method for spatially modelling such a variable should be capable of accurately estimating the true spatial correlation. Conventional kriged models are the most commonly used in mining for estimating grade or other variables at unsampled locations, and these models use the variogram or covariance function to model the spatial correlations in the process of estimation. However, this usage assumes the relationships of the observations of the variable of interest at nearby locations are only influenced by the vector distance between the locations. This means that these models assume linear spatial correlation of grade. In reality, the relationship with an observation of grade at a nearby location may be influenced by both distance between the locations and the value of the observations (ie non-linear spatial correlation, such as may exist for variables of interest in geometallurgy). Hence this may lead to inaccurate estimation of the ore reserve if a kriged model is used for estimating grade of unsampled locations when nonlinear spatial correlation is present. Copula-based methods, which are widely used in financial and actuarial modelling to quantify the non-linear dependence structures, may offer a solution. This method was introduced by Bárdossy and Li (2008) to geostatistical modelling to quantify the non-linear spatial dependence structure in a groundwater quality measurement network. Their copula-based spatial modelling is applied in this research paper to estimate the grade of 3D blocks. Furthermore, real-world mining data is used to validate this model. These copula-based grade estimates are compared with the results of conventional ordinary and lognormal kriging to present the reliability of this method.

A modified pseudolikelihood approach for analysis of longitudinal data

We consider the analysis of longitudinal data when the covariance function is modeled by additional parameters to the mean parameters. In general, inconsistent estimators of the covariance (variance/correlation) parameters will be produced when the "working" correlation matrix is misspecified, which may result in great loss of efficiency of the mean parameter estimators (albeit the consistency is preserved). We consider using different "Working" correlation models for the variance and the mean parameters. In particular, we find that an independence working model should be used for estimating the variance parameters to ensure their consistency in case the correlation structure is misspecified. The designated "working" correlation matrices should be used for estimating the mean and the correlation parameters to attain high efficiency for estimating the mean parameters. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed algorithm performs very well. We also applied different estimation procedures to a data set from a clinical trial for illustration.

Direction of arrival estimation in the presence of distributed noise sources: Cumulant based approach

In the past few years there have been attempts to develop subspace methods for DoA (direction of arrival) estimation using a fourth?order cumulant which is known to de?emphasize Gaussian background noise. To gauge the relative performance of the cumulant MUSIC (MUltiple SIgnal Classification) (c?MUSIC) and the standard MUSIC, based on the covariance function, an extensive numerical study has been carried out, where a narrow?band signal source has been considered and Gaussian noise sources, which produce a spatially correlated background noise, have been distributed. These simulations indicate that, even though the cumulant approach is capable of de?emphasizing the Gaussian noise, both bias and variance of the DoA estimates are higher than those for MUSIC. To achieve comparable results the cumulant approach requires much larger data, three to ten times that for MUSIC, depending upon the number of sources and how close they are. This is attributed to the fact that in the estimation of the cumulant, an average of a product of four random variables is needed to make an evaluation. Therefore, compared to those in the evaluation of the covariance function, there are more cross terms which do not go to zero unless the data length is very large. It is felt that these cross terms contribute to the large bias and variance observed in c?MUSIC. However, the ability to de?emphasize Gaussian noise, white or colored, is of great significance since the standard MUSIC fails when there is colored background noise. Through simulation it is shown that c?MUSIC does yield good results, but only at the cost of more data.

Approximation of Spatio-Temporal Random Processes Using Tensor Decomposition

A new representation of spatio-temporal random processes is proposed in this work. In practical applications, such processes are used to model velocity fields, temperature distributions, response of vibrating systems, to name a few. Finding an efficient representation for any random process leads to encapsulation of information which makes it more convenient for a practical implementations, for instance, in a computational mechanics problem. For a single-parameter process such as spatial or temporal process, the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance matrix leads to the well-known Karhunen-Loeve (KL) decomposition. However, for multiparameter processes such as a spatio-temporal process, the covariance function itself can be defined in multiple ways. Here the process is assumed to be measured at a finite set of spatial locations and a finite number of time instants. Then the spatial covariance matrix at different time instants are considered to define the covariance of the process. This set of square, symmetric, positive semi-definite matrices is then represented as a third-order tensor. A suitable decomposition of this tensor can identify the dominant components of the process, and these components are then used to define a closed-form representation of the process. The procedure is analogous to the KL decomposition for a single-parameter process, however, the decompositions and interpretations vary significantly. The tensor decompositions are successfully applied on (i) a heat conduction problem, (ii) a vibration problem, and (iii) a covariance function taken from the literature that was fitted to model a measured wind velocity data. It is observed that the proposed representation provides an efficient approximation to some processes. Furthermore, a comparison with KL decomposition showed that the proposed method is computationally cheaper than the KL, both in terms of computer memory and execution time.

Faster computation of the Karhunen-Loeve expansion using its domain independence property

The goal of this work is to reduce the cost of computing the coefficients in the Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion. The KL expansion serves as a useful and efficient tool for discretizing second-order stochastic processes with known covariance function. Its applications in engineering mechanics include discretizing random field models for elastic moduli, fluid properties, and structural response. The main computational cost of finding the coefficients of this expansion arises from numerically solving an integral eigenvalue problem with the covariance function as the integration kernel. Mathematically this is a homogeneous Fredholm equation of second type. One widely used method for solving this integral eigenvalue problem is to use finite element (FE) bases for discretizing the eigenfunctions, followed by a Galerkin projection. This method is computationally expensive. In the current work it is first shown that the shape of the physical domain in a random field does not affect the realizations of the field estimated using KL expansion, although the individual KL terms are affected. Based on this domain independence property, a numerical integration based scheme accompanied by a modification of the domain, is proposed. In addition to presenting mathematical arguments to establish the domain independence, numerical studies are also conducted to demonstrate and test the proposed method. Numerically it is demonstrated that compared to the Galerkin method the computational speed gain in the proposed method is of three to four orders of magnitude for a two dimensional example, and of one to two orders of magnitude for a three dimensional example, while retaining the same level of accuracy. It is also shown that for separable covariance kernels a further cost reduction of three to four orders of magnitude can be achieved. Both normal and lognormal fields are considered in the numerical studies. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Correlation Distance of Soil Properties by Geostatistics

Random field theory has been used to model the spatial average soil properties, whereas the most widely used, geostatistics, on which also based a common basis (covariance function) has been successfully used to model and estimate natural resource since 1960s. Therefore, geostistics should in principle be an efficient way to model soil spatial variability Based on this, the paper presents an alternative approach to estimate the scale of fluctuation or correlation distance of a soil stratum by geostatistics. The procedure includes four steps calculating experimental variogram from measured data, selecting a suited theoretical variogram model, fitting the theoretical one to the experimental variogram, taking the parameters within the theoretical model obtained from optimization into a simple and finite correlation distance 6 relationship to the range a. The paper also gives eight typical expressions between a and b. Finally, a practical example was presented for showing the methodology.

First principles interatomic potential for tungsten based on Gaussian process regression

An accurate description of atomic interactions, such as that provided by first principles quantum mechanics, is fundamental to realistic prediction of the properties that govern plasticity, fracture or crack propagation in metals. However, the computational complexity associated with modern schemes explicitly based on quantum mechanics limits their applications to systems of a few hundreds of atoms at most. This thesis investigates the application of the Gaussian Approximation Potential (GAP) scheme to atomistic modelling of tungsten - a bcc transition metal which exhibits a brittle-to-ductile transition and whose plasticity behaviour is controlled by the properties of $\frac{1}{2} \langle 111 \rangle$ screw dislocations. We apply Gaussian process regression to interpolate the quantum-mechanical (QM) potential energy surface from a set of points in atomic configuration space. Our training data is based on QM information that is computed directly using density functional theory (DFT). To perform the fitting, we represent atomic environments using a set of rotationally, permutationally and reflection invariant parameters which act as the independent variables in our equations of non-parametric, non-linear regression. We develop a protocol for generating GAP models capable of describing lattice defects in metals by building a series of interatomic potentials for tungsten. We then demonstrate that a GAP potential based on a Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions (SOAP) covariance function provides a description of the $\frac{1}{2} \langle 111 \rangle$ screw dislocation that is in agreement with the DFT model. We use this potential to simulate the mobility of $\frac{1}{2} \langle 111 \rangle$ screw dislocations by computing the Peierls barrier and model dislocation-vacancy interactions to QM accuracy in a system containing more than 100,000 atoms.

Non-stationary variogram models for geostatistical sampling optimisation: An empirical investigation using elevation data

A problem with use of the geostatistical Kriging error for optimal sampling design is that the design does not adapt locally to the character of spatial variation. This is because a stationary variogram or covariance function is a parameter of the geostatistical model. The objective of this paper was to investigate the utility of non-stationary geostatistics for optimal sampling design. First, a contour data set of Wiltshire was split into 25 equal sub-regions and a local variogram was predicted for each. These variograms were fitted with models and the coefficients used in Kriging to select optimal sample spacings for each sub-region. Large differences existed between the designs for the whole region (based on the global variogram) and for the sub-regions (based on the local variograms). Second, a segmentation approach was used to divide a digital terrain model into separate segments. Segment-based variograms were predicted and fitted with models. Optimal sample spacings were then determined for the whole region and for the sub-regions. It was demonstrated that the global design was inadequate, grossly over-sampling some segments while under-sampling others.

Inférence topologique

Les données provenant de l'échantillonnage fin d'un processus continu (champ aléatoire) peuvent être représentées sous forme d'images. Un test statistique permettant de détecter une différence entre deux images peut être vu comme un ensemble de tests où chaque pixel est comparé au pixel correspondant de l'autre image. On utilise alors une méthode de contrôle de l'erreur de type I au niveau de l'ensemble de tests, comme la correction de Bonferroni ou le contrôle du taux de faux-positifs (FDR). Des méthodes d'analyse de données ont été développées en imagerie médicale, principalement par Keith Worsley, utilisant la géométrie des champs aléatoires afin de construire un test statistique global sur une image entière. Il s'agit d'utiliser l'espérance de la caractéristique d'Euler de l'ensemble d'excursion du champ aléatoire sous-jacent à l'échantillon au-delà d'un seuil donné, pour déterminer la probabilité que le champ aléatoire dépasse ce même seuil sous l'hypothèse nulle (inférence topologique). Nous exposons quelques notions portant sur les champs aléatoires, en particulier l'isotropie (la fonction de covariance entre deux points du champ dépend seulement de la distance qui les sépare). Nous discutons de deux méthodes pour l'analyse des champs anisotropes. La première consiste à déformer le champ puis à utiliser les volumes intrinsèques et les compacités de la caractéristique d'Euler. La seconde utilise plutôt les courbures de Lipschitz-Killing. Nous faisons ensuite une étude de niveau et de puissance de l'inférence topologique en comparaison avec la correction de Bonferroni. Finalement, nous utilisons l'inférence topologique pour décrire l'évolution du changement climatique sur le territoire du Québec entre 1991 et 2100, en utilisant des données de température simulées et publiées par l'Équipe Simulations climatiques d'Ouranos selon le modèle régional canadien du climat.

Photo-irradiation effects on the surface morphology of poly(p-phenylene vinylene) films

In this work, we have studied the surface morphology of photo-irradiated poly(p-phenylene vinylene) (PPV) thin films by using atomic force microscopy (AFM). We have analyzed the first-order statistical parameters, the height distribution and the distance between selected peaks. The second-order statistical analysis was introduced calculating the auto-covariance function to determine the correlation length between heights. We have observed that the photo-irradiation process produces a surface topology more homogeneous and isotropic such as a normal surface. In addition, the polymer surface irradiation can be used as a new methodology to obtain materials optically modified. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thickness and Annealing Temperature Effects on the Optical Properties and Surface Morphology of Layer-by-Layer Poly(p-phenyline vinylene) plus Dodecylbenzenesulfonate Films

The fabrication of controlled molecular architectures is essential for organic devices, as is the case of emission of polarized light for the information industry. In this study, we show that optimized conditions can be established to allow layer-by-layer (LbL) films of poly(p-phenylene vinylene) (PPV)+dodecylbenzenesulfonate (DBS) to be obtained with anisotropic properties. Films with five layers and converted at 110 degrees C had a dichroic ratio delta = 2.3 and order parameter r = 34%, as indicated in optical spectroscopy and emission ellipsometry data. This anisotropy was decreased with the number of layers deposited, with delta = 1.0 for a 75-layer LbL PPV + DBS film. The analysis with atomic force microscopy showed the formation of polymer clusters in a random growth process with the normalized height distribution being represented by a Gaussian function. In spite of this randomness in film growth, the self-covariance function pointed to a correlation between clusters, especially for thick films. In summary, the LbL method may be exploited to obtain both anisotropic films with polarized emission and regular, nanostructured surfaces. (c) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 49: 206-213, 2011

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Predição de valores genéticos para a produção de leite no dia do controle e para a produção acumulada até 305 dias

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)