Multidecadal variability of the continental precipitation annual amplitude driven by AMO and ENSO

As the water vapor content in the atmosphere scales with temperature, a warmer world is expected to feature an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Work to date has mainly focused on mean precipitation changes, whose connection to climatic modes is elusive at a global scale. Here we show that continental precipitation annual amplitude, which represents the annual range between minimum and maximum (monthly) rainfall, covaries with a linear combination of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and low-frequency variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on a decadal to multidecadal scale with a correlation coefficient of 0.92 (P<0.01). The teleconnection is a result of changes in moisture transport in key regions. Reported trends in the annual amplitude of global precipitation in recent decades need to be assessed in light of this substantial low-frequency variability, which could mask or enhance an anthropogenic signal in hydrological cycle changes.

Age tie points and geochemistry of sediment cores from the Antarctic continental margin

Few high-latitude terrestrial records document the timing and nature of the Cenozoic "Greenhouse" to "Icehouse" transition. Here we exploit the bulk geochemistry of marine siliciclastic sediments from drill cores on Antarctica's continental margin to extract a unique semiquantitative temperature and precipitation record for Eocene to mid-Miocene (~54-13 Ma). Alkaline elements are strongly enriched in the detrital mineral fraction in fine-grained siliciclastic marine sediments and only occur as trace metals in the biogenic fraction. Hence, terrestrial climofunctions similar to the chemical index of alteration (CIA) can be applied to the alkaline major element geochemistry of marine sediments on continental margins in order to reconstruct changes in precipitation and temperature. We validate this approach by comparison with published paleotemperature and precipitation records derived from fossil wood, leaves, and pollen and find remarkable agreement, despite uncertainties in the calibrations of the different proxies. A long-term cooling on the order of >=8°C is observed between the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (~54-52 Ma) and the middle Miocene (~15-13 Ma) with the onset of transient cooling episodes in the middle Eocene at ~46-45 Ma. High-latitude stratigraphic records currently exhibit insufficient temporal resolution to reconstruct continental aridity and inferred ice-sheet development during the middle to late Eocene (~45-37 Ma). However, we find an abrupt aridification of East Antarctica near the Eocene-Oligocene transition (~34 Ma), which suggests that ice coverage influenced high-latitude atmospheric circulation patterns through albedo effects from the earliest Oligocene onward.

Early Oligocene continental climate ofthe Paleogene Basin in Hungary and Slovenia

This paper concentrates on the Early Oligocene palaeoclimate of the southern part of Eastern and Central Europe and gives a detailed climatological analysis, combined with leaf-morphological studies and modelling of the palaeoatmospheric CO2 level using stomatal and d13 C data. Climate data are calculated using the Coexistence Approach for Kiscellian floras of the Palaeogene Basin (Hungary and Slovenia) and coeval assemblages from Central and Southeastern Europe. Potential microclimatic or habitat variations are considered using morphometric analysis of fossil leaves from Hungarian, Slovenian and Italian floras. Reconstruction of CO2 is performed by applying a recently introduced mechanistic model. Results of climate analysis indicate distinct latitudinal and longitudinal climate patterns for various variables which agree well with reconstructed palaeogeography and vegetation. Calculated climate variables in general suggest a warm and frost-free climate with low seasonal variation of temperature. A difference in temperature parameters is recorded between localities from Central and Southeastern Europe, manifested mainly in the mean temperature of the coldest month. Results of morphometric analysis suggest microclimatic or habitat difference among studied floras. Extending the scarce information available on atmospheric CO2 levels during the Oligocene, we provide data for a well-defined time-interval. Reconstructed atmospheric CO2 levels agree well with threshold values for Antarctic ice sheet growth suggested by recent modelling studies. The successful application of the mechanistic model for the reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 levels raises new possibitities for future climate inference from macro-flora studies.

Fossil pollen record of composite sediment core TMD from Tso Moriri, analysis of modern surface pollen samples, mean annual precipitation reconstruction, and digitisation and recalibration of different discussed palaeoclimate proxy records

This paper presents a new fossil pollen record from Tso Moriri (32°54'N, 78°19'E, 4512 m a.s.l.) and seeks to reconstruct changes in mean annual precipitation (MAP) during the last 12,000 years. This high-alpine lake occupies an area of 140 km**2 in a glacial-tectonic valley in the northwestern Himalaya. The region has a cold climate, with a MAP <300 mm, and open vegetation. The hydrology is controlled by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), but winter westerly-associated precipitation also affects the regional water balance. Results indicate that precipitation levels varied significantly during the Holocene. After a rapid increase in MAP, a phase of maximum humidity was reached between ca. 11 to 9.6 cal ka BP, followed by a gradual decline in MAP. This trend parallels the reduction in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Comparison of different palaeoclimate proxy records reveal evidence for a stronger Holocene decrease in precipitation in the northern versus the southern parts of the ISM domain. The long-term trend of ISM weakening is overlaid with several short periods of greater dryness, which are broadly synchronous with the North Atlantic cold spells, suggesting reduced amounts of westerly-associated winter precipitation. Compared to the mid and late Holocene, it appears that westerlies had a greater influence on the western parts of the ISM domain during the early Holocene. During this period, the westerly-associated summer precipitation belt was positioned at Mediterranean latitudes and amplified the ISM-derived precipitation. The Tso Moriri pollen record and moisture reconstructions also suggest that changes in climatic conditions affected the ancient Harappan Civilisation, which flourished in the greater Indus Valley from approximately 5.2 to 3 cal ka BP. The prolonged Holocene trend towards aridity, punctuated by an interval of increased dryness (between ca. 4.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP), may have pushed the Mature Harappan urban settlements (between ca. 4.5 to 3.9 cal ka BP) to develop more efficient agricultural practices to deal with the increasingly acute water shortages. The amplified aridity associated with North Atlantic cooling between ca. 4 to 3.6 and around 3.2 cal ka BP further hindered local agriculture, possibly causing the deurbanisation that occurred from ca. 3.9 cal ka BP and eventual collapse of the Harappan Civilisation between ca. 3.5 to 3 cal ka BP.

Pollen abundances, and temperature and precipitation reconstruction for the Eocene to Oligocene transition in northern high latitudes

A profound global climate shift took place at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (~33.5 million years ago) when Cretaceous/early Palaeogene greenhouse conditions gave way to icehouse conditions (Zachos et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.1059412; Coxall et al., 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03135; Lear et al., 2008, doi:10.1130/G24584A.1). During this interval, changes in the Earth's orbit and a long-term drop in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (Pagani et al., 2005, doi:10.1126/science.1110063; Pearson and Palmer, 2000, doi:10.1038/35021000; DeConto and Pollard, 2003, doi:10.1038/nature01290) resulted in both the growth of Antarctic ice sheets to approximately their modern size (Coxall et al., 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03135; Lear et al., 2008, doi:10.1130/G24584A.1) and the appearance of Northern Hemisphere glacial ice (Eldrett et al., 2007, doi:10.1038/nature05591; Moran et al., 2006, doi:10.1038/nature04800). However, palaeoclimatic studies of this interval are contradictory: although some analyses indicate no major climatic changes (Kohn et al., 2004, doi:10.1130/G20442.1; Grimes et al., 2005, doi:10.1130/G21019.1), others imply cooler temperatures (Zanazzi et al., 2007, doi:10.1038/nature05551), increased seasonality (Ivany et al., 2000, doi:10.1038/35038044; Terry, 2001, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(00)00248-0) and/or aridity (Ivany et al., 2000, doi:10.1038/35038044; Terry, 2001, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(00)00248-0; Sheldon et al., 2002, doi:10.1086/342865; Dupont-Nivet et al., 2007, doi:10.1038/nature05516). Climatic conditions in high northern latitudes over this interval are particularly poorly known. Here we present northern high-latitude terrestrial climate estimates for the Eocene to Oligocene interval, based on bioclimatic analysis of terrestrially derived spore and pollen assemblages preserved in marine sediments from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. Our data indicate a cooling of ~5 °C in cold-month (winter) mean temperatures to 0-2 °C, and a concomitant increased seasonality before the Oi-1 glaciation event. These data indicate that a cooling component is indeed incorporated in the d18O isotope shift across the Eocene-Oligocene transition. However, the relatively warm summer temperatures at that time mean that continental ice on East Greenland was probably restricted to alpine outlet glaciers.

The physics of ENSO-monsoon connection

The physical mechanism through which Ei-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to produce deficient precipitation over Indian continent is investigated using both observations as well as a general circulation model. Both analysis of observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) study show that the planetary scale response associated with ENSO primarily influences the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Through this interaction it tends to favour the equatorial heat source, enhance precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean and indirectly cause a decrease in continental precipitation through induced subsidence. This situation is further complicated by the fact the regional tropospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) has a bimodal structure over this region with large amplitude over the Indian continent. While the ENSO response has a quasi-four year periodicity and tends peak during beginning of the calendar year, the QBO mode tends to peak during northern summer. Thus, the QBO mode exerts a stronger influence on the interannual variability of the monsoon. The strength of the Indian monsoon in a given year depends on the combined effect of the ENSO and the QBO mode. Sines the two oscillations have disparate time scales, exact phase information of the two modes during northern summer is important in determining the Indian summer monsoon. The physical mechanism of the interannual variations of the Indian monsoon precipitation associated with ENSO presented here is similar to the physical process that cause intraseasonal 'active', 'break' oscillations of the monsoon.

Surface freshwater storage and variability in the Amazon basin from multi-satellite observations, 1993-2007

The amount of water stored and moving through the surface water bodies of large river basins (river, floodplains, wetlands) plays a major role in the global water and biochemical cycles and is a critical parameter for water resources management. However, the spatiotemporal variations of these freshwater reservoirs are still widely unknown at the global scale. Here, we propose a hypsographic curve approach to estimate surface freshwater storage variations over the Amazon basin combining surface water extent from a multi-satellite-technique with topographic data from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) from Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Monthly surface water storage variations for 1993-2007 are presented, showing a strong seasonal and interannual variability, and are evaluated against in situ river discharge and precipitation. The basin-scale mean annual amplitude of similar to 1200 km(3) is in the range of previous estimates and contributes to about half of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage variations. For the first time, we map the surface water volume anomaly during the extreme droughts of 1997 (October-November) and 2005 (September-October) and found that during these dry events the water stored in the river and floodplains of the Amazon basin was, respectively, similar to 230 (similar to 40%) and 210 (similar to 50%) km(3) below the 1993-2007 average. This new 15 year data set of surface water volume represents an unprecedented source of information for future hydrological or climate modeling of the Amazon. It is also a first step toward the development of such database at the global scale.

The precipitation climate of Central Asia: intercomparison of observational and numerical data sources in a remote semiarid region

In this study, we systematically compare a wide range of observational and numerical precipitation datasets for Central Asia. Data considered include two re-analyses, three datasets based on direct observations, and the output of a regional climate model simulation driven by a global re-analysis. These are validated and intercompared with respect to their ability to represent the Central Asian precipitation climate. In each of the datasets, we consider the mean spatial distribution and the seasonal cycle of precipitation, the amplitude of interannual variability, the representation of individual yearly anomalies, the precipitation sensitivity (i.e. the response to wet and dry conditions), and the temporal homogeneity of precipitation. Additionally, we carried out part of these analyses for datasets available in real time. The mutual agreement between the observations is used as an indication of how far these data can be used for validating precipitation data from other sources. In particular, we show that the observations usually agree qualitatively on anomalies in individual years while it is not always possible to use them for the quantitative validation of the amplitude of interannual variability. The regional climate model is capable of improving the spatial distribution of precipitation. At the same time, it strongly underestimates summer precipitation and its variability, while interannual variations are well represented during the other seasons, in particular in the Central Asian mountains during winter and spring